L1 Promotion Odds

[Johnnyrotten]

Being realistic, 3 of the 4 play off teams will be us, Stockport and Bradford.  So average odds for us should be under 4/1 assuming we are the 3 favourites.  Best odds for Bradford is 4/1, fair enough, Stockport 12/5 and 2/1 on us - not great.

Some decent odds on those hoping to get in the play offs, they all have a good chance if they can finish 6th:

Plymouth and Stevenage 16/1. 

Huddersfield and Reading 33/1.

Luton 40/1, Wycombe 50/1

Barnsley 500/1!

 

[Eddie]

Watch out for Luton. They’ve just hit form and have a favourable run in.

Downsides are that they have the distraction of the EFL trophy final and 4 of their last 6 are away and they’re poor away from home.

I hope we aren’t on the beach and let them sneak in on the last day, I’ve had a feeling all season that they’d sneak it and they’re one of the last teams out of that group that I’d want to get 6th (if we’re in 3rd).

[Ani]

8 hours ago, Johnnyrotten said:

Being realistic, 3 of the 4 play off teams will be us, Stockport and Bradford.  So average odds for us should be under 4/1 assuming we are the 3 favourites.  Best odds for Bradford is 4/1, fair enough, Stockport 12/5 and 2/1 on us - not great.

Some decent odds on those hoping to get in the play offs, they all have a good chance if they can finish 6th:

Plymouth and Stevenage 16/1. 

Huddersfield and Reading 33/1.

Luton 40/1, Wycombe 50/1

Barnsley 500/1!

 

Stevenage based on the table are a good price, they 2 points ahead of Plymouth with 2 games in hand. They are 3rd in form table over last 10 games.

But they look very average whenever I have seen them play. 

[Traf]

1 hour ago, Ani said:

But they look very average whenever I have seen them play. 

As do most of this league (ourselves included), if truth be told.
Every year, we hear "it'll be tougher next season with xyz coming down and abcd coming up" and it never is.
It's always a pretty mediocre league that really just takes a bit of consistency to win. 

[Ani]

18 minutes ago, Traf said:

As do most of this league (ourselves included), if truth be told.
Every year, we hear "it'll be tougher next season with xyz coming down and abcd coming up" and it never is.
It's always a pretty mediocre league that really just takes a bit of consistency to win. 

I went to Bradford v Northampton on Friday and as you say Bradford very average.  The better team but if Northampton got a point would not have been a total robbery, couple of early chances and hit bar second half. 

[RUREADY2ROLL]

Could see Bradford missing out - been rubbish and scrapped wins against bottom sides at home 

[Tombwfc]

Notwithstanding them shooting themselves in the foot against us, I still think Plymouth are the best of the rest. They've won more games than us for a start, and the front two have clearly got goals in them.

I know we haven't beaten either of them once yet this season, but I struggle to see Stevenage/Reading coming to us and winning (or holding onto a narrow lead from the first leg).

[woolli]

23 hours ago, RUREADY2ROLL said:

Could see Bradford missing out - been rubbish and scrapped wins against bottom sides at home 

Really? They just beat Wycombe away and have gone above us!

[RUREADY2ROLL]

1 hour ago, woolli said:

Really? They just beat Wycombe away and have gone above us!

Yes that surprised me. Wycombe looking out of it now but it’s still wide open 

[bwfc2003]

1 hour ago, Tombwfc said:

Notwithstanding them shooting themselves in the foot against us, I still think Plymouth are the best of the rest. They've won more games than us for a start, and the front two have clearly got goals in them.

I know we haven't beaten either of them once yet this season, but I struggle to see Stevenage/Reading coming to us and winning (or holding onto a narrow lead from the first leg).

Especially as they play 3 of the bottom 4 together with Wimbledon - only tough game is Bradford away 

[ianofcleveleys]

Bradford have had a wobbly spell but have a way of playing, not dissimilar to Stockport's, that's effective in this league. Nobody will fancy going to Valley Parade and their support will spur them on in the away leg. 

Stevenage have done remarkably well to stay the course after looking like they were fading around when we played them. I'd sooner us play them than Bradford or Stockport though. If we dont gift them a goal we wont need many to beat them.

To get through a two leg semi v Bradford or Stockport we're going to have to get back to those Wigan and Stevenage away levels of miserliness. 

[Johnnyrotten]

20 minutes ago, ianofcleveleys said:

Bradford have had a wobbly spell but have a way of playing, not dissimilar to Stockport's, that's effective in this league. Nobody will fancy going to Valley Parade and their support will spur them on in the away leg. 

Stevenage have done remarkably well to stay the course after looking like they were fading around when we played them. I'd sooner us play them than Bradford or Stockport though. If we dont gift them a goal we wont need many to beat them.

To get through a two leg semi v Bradford or Stockport we're going to have to get back to those Wigan and Stevenage away levels of miserliness. 

If we get Bradford in the play offs we'll have 2 consecutive away games there.  There may be a very slight advantage in going there twice in quick succession in terms of familiarity with the pitch/crowd/style of play etc.  Likewise Plymouth.

Stockport may think that playing us yesterday is a useful taster for if they have to come here again in a month.  And Wycombe, Stevenage, Hudds, or Luton come to that 😀  Very strange how our last 7 fixtures have fallen.

[Didledee]

I wouldn't even take any league performance into consideration when in the actual playoffs, we battered Oxford 5-0 then didn't have a single shot on target at Wembley,

Played well away at Barnsley only to almost throw it away at home, they are "on the day" games, anything can happen, and given our yo-yo performances nothing is a given, could be good-ish, could be shit-ish, no doubt any match vs any of 'em will be close, we have been playing these last few months not even in our final form without Duberry, so that a huge positive looking forward, even though is form dipped slightly before his injury, though still was more of a threat over Apter.

[Traf]

1 minute ago, Didledee said:

we have been playing these last few months not even in our final form without Duberry, so that a huge positive looking forward, even though is form dipped slightly before his injury, though still was more of a threat over Apter.

You'd have provided more of a threat than Apter.

He has been the biggest disappointment of all the players signed by Schumacher.

[Alf Hartigan]

Just now, Traf said:

You'd have provided more of a threat than Apter.

He has been the biggest disappointment of all the players signed by Schumacher.

Aye, surprised that Charlton fans were not happy with him being loaned out. Thank fuck it was just a loan. Shame Evatt didn't use the loan system more .

[Farnywhite]

2 hours ago, Traf said:

You'd have provided more of a threat than Apter.

He has been the biggest disappointment of all the players signed by Schumacher.

Taylor  We bought him got a 3 year deal and looking to get rid all ready played well at hibs pre season and that’s your lot 

[Johnnyrotten]

2 hours ago, Didledee said:

I wouldn't even take any league performance into consideration when in the actual playoffs, we battered Oxford 5-0 then didn't have a single shot on target at Wembley,

Played well away at Barnsley only to almost throw it away at home, they are "on the day" games, anything can happen, and given our yo-yo performances nothing is a given, could be good-ish, could be shit-ish, no doubt any match vs any of 'em will be close, we have been playing these last few months not even in our final form without Duberry, so that a huge positive looking forward, even though is form dipped slightly before his injury, though still was more of a threat over Apter.

I agree entirely with that.  The (long winded!) point I was trying to make is that if you're a player going to Bradford or Plymouth for the first time in your life (probably 90% of our players), and you get a chance to have a dress rehearsal 2 weeks before, surely it can only help with your mindset, a bit less fear of the unknown.  You're going somewhere you're a bit familar with, even if its just the stadium and dressing rooms, or the playing surface and atmosphere.  

The Oxford and Barnsley games were played at different grounds in very different atmospheres etc.

[Traf]

2 hours ago, Farnywhite said:

Taylor  We bought him got a 3 year deal and looking to get rid all ready played well at hibs pre season and that’s your lot 

I get where you're coming from, but I had low expectations of him anyway, so he hasn't actually disappointed me too much.

Apter came with a reputation (from his time at Blackpool) for being a main man.

[Ani]

1 hour ago, Traf said:

I get where you're coming from, but I had low expectations of him anyway, so he hasn't actually disappointed me too much.

Apter came with a reputation (from his time at Blackpool) for being a main man.

Taylor and Apter are very strange.

Taylor just never looked settled and then Papa Johns game made a howler - never seen again. 
Apter looks neat and tidy at times but zero impact since he arrived, I said on another thread he looks like a kid being forced to play by his dad. 
CBT impact from day one, gave us something extra.

Easy to guess which one get a season ending injury. 

[Zico]

got £207 on us to get promoted from the start of the season

returns £960

offered cash out of £253

also got £300 on top 6 finish, returns £675, cash out for £554, thought it would be nearer the actual returns that that

[little whitt]

5 hours ago, Zico said:

got £207 on us to get promoted from the start of the season

returns £960

offered cash out of £253

also got £300 on top 6 finish, returns £675, cash out for £554, thought it would be nearer the actual returns that that

I would take it 

[freds dad]

5 hours ago, Zico said:

got £207 on us to get promoted from the start of the season

returns £960

offered cash out of £253

also got £300 on top 6 finish, returns £675, cash out for £554, thought it would be nearer the actual returns that that

Take the £253 and wait for the £675.

[RUREADY2ROLL]

2 hours ago, freds dad said:

Take the £253 and wait for the £675.

I would take them both; we are Bolton and there is time we can totally fuck up

[Zico]

3 hours ago, little whitt said:

I would take it 

 

3 hours ago, freds dad said:

Take the £253 and wait for the £675.

nah, not taking £253 from a £207 stake

plus still think we're well in with a shout

the other bet I have from the start of the season

£100 on MK Dons to win title at 7.5 - so £750 if they win it

currenty 7 points behind Bromley with 4 games left

but they host Bromley on Saturday

then Bromley have Cambridge and Salfrod who are also going for promotion

cash out £100

not taking that either, will take whatever is left to offer if MK don't win at weekend

[Johnnyrotten]

I'm still hopeful of some points deductions to bring home my shrewd acca on relegations for Sunderland, Charlton, Bradford and Barnet.

Bradford were only 4/1 to go down.

If you need any tips for next season let me know.