Razaldo9

Gilks may not be up there on goalkeeping stats alone, but he got more out of the 4/5 players in front of him. If we get another keeper in, the organisation from them needs to stay at a similar level. No point getting a better keeper, but the defensive level dropping overall.

Bolton. Surprise exit. Andrew Gartside leaving his role. Did a significant job too ... From Nixon

Feel like Dapo could score loads if he just gets in at the back post more often, similarly whoever plays wide right. I'd definitely take him, hopefully with some competition so we can play whoever is in form.

I'm not sure that would be good enough to be up the end we ultimately want to be. I'd like to see a few brought in and some of those in that team being options for rotation/ experience/ coming on.

Definitely strange, but it's so close I don't think we even need the percentages now. Down to 2 games. I'm not sure either Morecambe or Tranmere win 2 so we may only need a point come the end. Hope we get 3 next week to make sure though.

Or remaining games? Morecambe H PPG 1.95 Exeter A PPG 1.23 Crawley H PPG 1.67 v Bolton A PPG 1.67 Walsall H PPG 1.23 Bradford A PPG 1.19 So on paper our opponents earn more points home/away respectively.

Think we're comfortably the best team since the Jan window. Morecambe are 4th playing us when we still need results. I'm nervous about it but no reason we shouldn't be able to win. https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/daterange/fromdate:2021-Jan-31/todate:2021-Jun-01/type:home-and-away/

We must have missed about 6 within the 6 yard box since the start at Newport. If we can just bring the chance conversion back up to normal in the next 4 games we will do fine. Hopefully we can get the first goal to settle us.

If you haven't bet each way your return is £1020. We're generally 5/1. So to get your return you would have to stake £170 at 5/1. So your cash out offer is about 80% (136/170) of what a fair cash out would be. (even that is based on the odds being fair, which they probably aren't). I put a promotion bet on in Jan/ early Feb at 20/1. On the basis we had a good run and if we did well in the next few I'd have a good value bet. When we won them all there was no way I was cashing out. Similarly now, Cheltenham play away Friday, then we play bottom of the league Saturday. I'd be too tempted that this weekend could swing in our favour.

Was just looking at this too. Think a win v Newport would be nice, given the Tranmere/ Cambridge game. Tranmere/ Morecambe/ FGR with about 20% chance each of top 3. Morecambe currently looking the most consistent.

Think we're being a bit harsh on our attack. I think we need to work out the number 10 position with Sarce out, but we're doing well still. From a betting preview yesterday; I like to look at the last 12 games to see how a team in performing and Bolton are flying. They have taken 32 points from a possible 36, I have them top of the expected points table, the highest expected goal ratio and shots in the box ratio over these 12 games. No side has scored more goals and only Tranmere have a better expected goals scored tally, whilst only Morecambe have had more shots in the box.

We signed those 2 though and then a load of conference/ league 2 players. We were under the salary cap and weren't at the limit either. Say we were actually paying slightly over the 1.5m when accounting for registering sarce and Doyle pre cap. I doubt most teams are paying £500k a year.

I don't think goal difference is going to swing in our favour. If Cheltenham draw 1 that we win, we're level on points. For it to come to gd we have to get exactly same number of points, so they will only improve their gd and we're 9 behind them. Maybe we can edge Tranmere and fgr, but we can just get more points than them too.

I don't think any of them have lost a game with us yet. The only loss since Lee signed seems to be Tranmere and he didn't play. And we haven't lost since deadline day.

http://www.probs4.club/p4cLge/lge2 I don't know what half of these show. But the chart above this bit; (Chart shows two sets of stacked outcomes for bottom and top half. Can help gauge at what points level an outcome moves from impossible … improbable … possible … probable … highly probable … almost certain.) Seems to suggest 79 points as the table stands is a 67% chance of being top 3. 78 pts just under 49% chance. 80 pts, 83% chance. We need 23 for the 80 mark. 7 wins 2 draws.

Think he posted Instagram stuff eating with a view of the pitch. Sure he had another cooking in a hotel kitchen. Not sure an external chain would allow that.

I said at the time about subs. He was in such a tough position. You need to bring on some for a bit of energy, but don't want to negatively impact the momentum. We needed to keep playing if anything. Dropping in is asking for trouble. Maybe Tutte on to make a midfield 3 with Lee and MJ would have helped us keep the ball. But I think it was more about sitting deep than the changes.

Think we may have 6 players from the squad last time we played these in the squad for sat. 2 of which will probably be on the bench. (Santos, Baptiste, Sarce, Fonz, Tutte, Arthur) They have changed quite a bit too, started with Donaldson and Clarke up front when we played. There's potential for a more open game to suit us after grinding out results against teams sitting in. Small factors like being able to take it easy and rest a few last night hopefully helps too.

Looked back at a few of games v the top sides. Crellin punched into our goal against Cambridge. Gilks palmed it down for the Cheltenham striker. Deservedly beat Salford on sky. Drew away at Carlisle and Exeter. All of these before we've strengthened in Jan too. Think we can beat any of them at the top now.

Evatt on Barrow's late penalty shout I spoke to their player after and he said ‘I’ve expected the contact and your lad’s pulled out and I’ve even told the ref that it wasn’t.’ So there’s no issues there. MJ’s done well to pull out. Credit to the referee and I’ve not said that too often of late, but in them instances and moments, he could have easily blown up. But to be fair to their player, he instantly held his hands up and said no to the referee and that’s brilliant honesty and great spirit.

Hopefully the fixtures catch up on teams. We have a solid squad and have played Saturday and midweek since Morecambe (5 games). The next 5 are also Saturday/ midweek. Wouldn't mind a bit of a break to keep the best XI out, but that's not happening. So if we are having to fit so many in, can't imagine what Carlisle have.

I think Bradford have been a bit fortunate lately and hopefully they drop off. Based on the xG of their last few games. They took 3 pts from Southend in an even game. 3 pts off Barrow, despite barrow edging the stats. 3 pts from Morecambe in an even game. 3 pts off Cheltenham in an even game. So they have 12 pts from games where they could have had 3 on the balance of play. Watching them it could be a different story, but hopefully they don't get into contention as we have enough above us already to compete with.

Found this yesterday. https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england4&tid=10 Our run in is easier than the games we've played based on PPG of teams played v remaining. Our next 4 is by far the easiest in the league. Average PPG of 0.89. Closest is 1.12 (A) at Southend Utd (PPG at home = 0.93) (H) vs Scunthorpe (PPG away = 1.15) (H) vs Barrow (PPG away = 0.54) (A) at Oldham (PPG at home = 0.93) Feel like we've got to be in contention after these.

Don't really know what the alternative could have been. If we were allowed to postpone games with no points penalty that would allow us to have a team that can play competitively. But then we'd have teams coming up for games midweek, which they'd potentially complain about. Or that teams who play us in the congested period have an advantage. We're better off playing and losing as it stands. If they take -3 for Donny, we need a win to break even. So it's through the EFL rules. Should we be punished for Brentford and Doncaster this season? Shouldn't the same offence result in the punishment being applied in the respective season or the following, whichever they choose. Not both in this year.

Someone mentioned on the BN blog last time we had the embargo we were limited to 6 month loans. Potentially the same now. A full 6 months may take us through the next deadline, so Jan with a potential extension in the next window is probably the plan. Anyone who isn't used/ doesn't want to stay can then be replaced with another loanee.