Kemi Badenoch doesn’t really need to speak in public more than once a month and she’ll do ok. In that respect, keeping her head down is proving very effective.

Sniping from the sidelines and criticising everyone clearly has merit. 🙃

Sorry, wrong thread.

Edited July 2Jul 2 by Sluffy

7 hours ago, kent_white said:

No delerium here my friend.

Just independent findings.

Is your position that Brexit has had no negative impact on the UK economy?

The actual reality is that it's impossible to quantify because any findings can't ever be anything but a counterfactual, with biases in either direction all over the place

The only claim likely to be anywhere near the truth is that there's been a negative financial impact but that that impact was not as bad as most predicted

6 hours ago, Spider said:

His position is one of utter confusion and entrenchment.

Brexit was short term pain he said. Ten years on and it’s given us fucking nowt.

But at least his American hero isn’t making him look like a fool.

It isn't 10 years since we left.

Your maths is woeful.

3 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

The actual reality is that it's impossible to quantify because any findings can't ever be anything but a counterfactual, with biases in either direction all over the place

The only claim likely to be anywhere near the truth is that there's been a negative financial impact but that that impact was not as bad as most

Counterfactual, but that's not the same as unquantifiable. OBR, BoE, LSE and Bloomberg (who I quoted) all used different models and all came to the conclusion that we're around 4-8% of GDP lost. That's several independent organisations all in agreement.

And 'not as bad as predicted' doesn't really hold up. It's true of the daft instant recession predictions from some quarters at the time, not the actual long-run forecasts, which have held up well.

Whichever model you want to use (apart from one drawn by Nigel Farage on the back of a fag packet) - we're considerably worse off.

Edited July 2Jul 2 by kent_white

2 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Counterfactual, but that's not the same as unquantifiable. OBR, BoE, LSE and Bloomberg (who I quoted) all used different models and all landed around 4-8% of GDP lost. That's several independent organisations agreeing.

And 'not as bad as predicted' doesn't really hold up. It's true of the daft instant recession predictions from some quarters at the time, not the actual long-run forecasts, which have held up well.

Whichever model you want to use (apart from one drawn by Nigel Farage on the back of a fag packet) - it's likely that we're considerably worse off.

Most of those predictions were based on a 'No Deal Brexit' which was being heavily pushed by the fuckwits at the time.

19 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Counterfactual, but that's not the same as unquantifiable. OBR, BoE, LSE and Bloomberg (who I quoted) all used different models and all came to the conclusion that we're around 4-8% of GDP lost. That's several independent organisations all in agreement.

And 'not as bad as predicted' doesn't really hold up. It's true of the daft instant recession predictions from some quarters at the time, not the actual long-run forecasts, which have held up well.

Whichever model you want to use (apart from one drawn by Nigel Farage on the back of a fag packet) - we're considerably worse off.

It practically is the same as unquantifiable because to quantify the loss would require near certainty of the state the economy would've been if we hadn't left, which no-one has

The OBR in particular are notoriously poor when it comes to long-term forecasting, they're genuinely always wrong and sometimes massively so

It's pretty much beyond doubt there's been a financial hit but any figures being quoted are basically pie in the sky

7 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

It practically is the same as unquantifiable because to quantify the loss would require near certainty of the state the economy would've been if we hadn't left, which no-one has

The OBR in particular are notoriously poor when it comes to long-term forecasting, they're genuinely always wrong and sometimes massively so

It's pretty much beyond doubt there's been a financial hit but any figures being quoted are basically pie in the sky

It's pretty much beyond doubt there's been a financial hit

Putting in mildly. Also, not just the economy, but so many other things like status, our 'soft' power.

Its been a shit show. However, we cant now and shouldn't just go back in. Those arguing for that are just as silly as those that voted us out. Things have masively changed, its no simple quick fix to enter back into the EU.

I'm not sure I've ever really been convinced by the concept of soft power

Not independent of hard power anyway

19 hours ago, kent_white said:

No delerium here my friend.

Just independent findings.

Is your position that Brexit has had no negative impact on the UK economy?

Firstly, it is 'delirium'. Get it right or you could administer the incorrect drug.

Secondly, my position is that the 'consequences to my actions' comment is ludicrous if for no other reason that I did not partake in the EU referendum.

I wasn't going to bother with a 'thirdly' but WTF. 'Negative impact on the UK economy'. Obstruction and the running of interference has made damned sure that such impact has been far worse than it would have been. Sinister fucking Remoaners working against the best interests of their country. Treason.

18 hours ago, Dimron said:

You wouldn't be saying that if you lived over here and got diagnosed with terminal cancer mate!

Or if I could only speak Swahili. WTF?

18 hours ago, Zico said:

I don't think anyone could fix the mess the last Tory government created and left us with to be honest

it's impact will last for years to come

Vote Reform.

8 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I'm not sure I've ever really been convinced by the concept of soft power

Not independent of hard power anyway

You dont have to be convinced of it, its a thing. And its interlinked.

Nigel (at least) “5 homes” Farage.

Only 2 declared in MPs interest register.

The net is closing on his financial grifting and lies. Tick tock.

Thank god we don’t tolerate “men of the people” crooks like Trump in this country.

The Standard

Everything we know about Nigel Farage's £4 million proper...

MPs and independent experts have raised concerns about the transparency of Mr Farage’s arrangements, with only two of his properties registered

1 hour ago, bolty58 said:

'Negative impact on the UK economy'. Obstruction and the running of interference has made damned sure that such impact has been far worse than it would have been. Sinister fucking Remoaners working against the best interests of their country. Treason.

🤣 🤣

The shitshow of Brexit is the fault of… Remainers.

Just like how the piss poor Conservative government was the fault of the weak Labour opposition.

56 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said:

You dont have to be convinced of it, its a thing. And its interlinked.

Righto

1 hour ago, Jol_BWFC said:

The shitshow of Brexit is the fault of… Remainers.

You're not normally this bright.

Do endeavour to keep it up.

6 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Firstly, it is 'delirium'. Get it right or you could administer the incorrect drug.

Secondly, my position is that the 'consequences to my actions' comment is ludicrous if for no other reason that I did not partake in the EU referendum.

I wasn't going to bother with a 'thirdly' but WTF. 'Negative impact on the UK economy'. Obstruction and the running of interference has made damned sure that such impact has been far worse than it would have been. Sinister fucking Remoaners working against the best interests of their country. Treason.

So you concede that there has been a negative impact on the UKs economy as a result of Brexit?

And it sounds like you're saying that it would always have had a negative effect. But that effect has been amplified by people who didn't think it was a good idea being obstructive?

I'd agree with both by the way.

14 hours ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

It's pretty much beyond doubt there's been a financial hit but any figures being quoted are basically pie in the sky

That's where we agree. A negative hit is not in serious doubt.

Where I'd disagree is this is 'pie in the sky'. A rough range agreed on by several independent methods isn't the same as a random number pulled from nowhere. Wide confidence interval, absolutely. But it's not just a figure plucked out of nowhere.

6 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Vote Reform.

sell it to me

2 minutes ago, Zico said:

sell it to me

6 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Vote Reform.

Why not Restore instead?

4 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Why not Restore instead?

splitters

3 hours ago, kent_white said:

So you concede that there has been a negative impact on the UKs economy as a result of Brexit?

And it sounds like you're saying that it would always have had a negative effect. But that effect has been amplified by people who didn't think it was a good idea being obstructive?

I'd agree with both by the way.

Did anyone ever say there wouldn't be (in the short term - i.e. a few decades or so)? Short term pain for long term gain. Take solace from the fact that Bernhard von Brusselsnouter can now only have one bottle of Chablis with his 5 star Chateaubriand lunch instead of two.

Nice to know we are back to being agreeable mon ami 😜😁

2 hours ago, Zico said:

sell it to me

No. In your case it has to be One Nation.

2 hours ago, Sweep said:

Why not Restore instead?

Restore the Conservatives to power? One day maybe the way Kemi is performing in recent times.

Just now, bolty58 said:

Did anyone ever say there wouldn't be (in the short term - i.e. a few decades or so)? Short term pain for long term gain. Take solace from the fact that Bernhard von Brusselsnouter can now only have one bottle of Chablis with his 5 star Chateaubriand lunch instead of two.

Nice to know we are back to being agreeable mon ami 😜😁

Blimey. Your idea of 'short term' is different to mine.