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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Cheltenham Festival 2014


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Ok racing folk, I know sod all about racing but looking on a tips website, my picks are:

 

1.30 royal Irish Hussar

2.05 Never enough time

2.40 Captain cutter

3.20 Triolo D'Alene

4.00 Oscar Delta

4.40 Rum & Butter

5.15 Next Sensation

 

Any of these wonky donkeys you wouldn't touch?

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My horse racing friend gave me a tip for a double yesterday, he put £50 on it and got just over £2K back, I ignored him

 

His double for today is

 

14.40 Kings Palace

15.20 Bobs Worth

 

So, that's where my money is going today

 

PS Yesterday's tip was Dynaste and More Of That, this isn't aftereventing as I didn't put any money on it

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1.30 : Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 2 miles 1 furlong

Date – Fri March 14th

Average field size last 10 years – 19.5

 

Positive Trends

 

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter.

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites.

Wins: 9 of the last 10 winners have won at least 50% of their career starts over hurdles.

Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter LTO.

Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.

Last run: All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 2 months.

Career win percentage: Horses that had a career win percentage of over 50% have provided 5 winners from 28 runners for a small profit.

 

Negative Trends

 

Favourites: 1 win from 10 (LOSS of £5.50; ROI -55%).

Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 54.

Hurdle wins: Horses that have not won over hurdles have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner from 38.

Irish trainers: 1 win from 56.

Course runs: Horses with previous Cheltenham experience have provided just 1 winner from 55.

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

50%+ record in all hurdle races

Won LTO

LTO favourite/second favourite

Run within last 2 months

No Course experience

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3.20 : Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

 

Course – Cheltenham

Distance – 3 miles 2 furlongs

Date – Fri March 14th

Average field size last 10 years – 14

 

Positive Trends

 

 

Favourites: 6 wins from 10 (PROFIT £9.98; ROI +99.8%).

Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.

Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter.

Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO.

Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9.

Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners came from one of three tracks –Leopardstown, Newbury or Kempton.

Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO.

Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.

Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 167 or bigger have produced 8 winners from only 28 qualifiers.

Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had not raced for at least a month.

Breeding: Irish bred runners have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

Career wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least 6 races in their careers.

Career place percentage: All the last 10 winners had won or been placed in over 50% of all their career starts.

Career Chase win percentage: All the last 10 winners had won over 40% of all their career chase starts.

 

Negative Trends

 

Price: Horses priced 17/2 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 105 runners.

Age: Horses aged 10 or older are 0 wins from 39.

Official rating: Horses rated 165 and below have provided 0 winners from 86.

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Cheltenham LTO have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner from 29.

 

 

Key Bullet points - look for:

 

6 or more career wins

Won LTO

Top 3 of betting

LTO favourites/second favourites

Career Chase percentage of over 40%

Rated 167+

Not raced for a month

 

Other positives - ideally look for:

 

Ran Grade 1 LTO

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Going for a few outsiders each way.

 

1.30 –  Abbyssial -  Pearl Castle
2.05 -  Cinders and Ashes -  Upazo
2.40 -  Apache Jack - Mosspark
3.20 –  Teaforthree - On His Own
4.00 –  Croan Rock -  Made in Time
4.40 –   Une Artiste - Thomas Crapper
5.15 –   Viva Colonia - Astracad

 

Main bet: Bobs Worth and The Giant Bolster (1st and 2nd)

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Just got back 3 great days.

 

Level Tuesday one winner Holywell.

 

Same level Wednesday Sire and Faugheen.

 

Mega Thursday Dynaste, Fingal Bay & Spring Heeled @ 14's in the last.

 

Travelled back today and fell asleep in front of TV before 2nd race - fucked!!!

 

Thank God was gonna lump on Briar Hill and Bobsworth.

 

Winnngs paid for the trip.

 

Happy Days

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Winners at 11/1, 10/1 and 7/1.

 

Placed horses at 12/1, 11/1 and two at 8/1.

 

It could have been a lot worse, but yesterday was a bad do.

 

After the lord mayor's show today, but it might be telling that Harry Topper and The Romford Pele have ducked decent opportunities at the Festival in favour of Uttoxeter and Kempton.

 

Another Hero is interesting, too, with McCoy preferring to go to Kempton rather than taking the ride on Wyck Hill in the Midlands National. 

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After the lord mayor's show today, but it might be telling that Harry Topper and The Romford Pele have ducked decent opportunities at the Festival in favour of Uttoxeter and Kempton.

 

 

I thought exactly the same thing this morning.

 

We were both wrong.

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