bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, miamiwhite said: Not will be...COULD BE.......and that’s from an independent source......don’t let facts ruin your headlines Kofi. "according to ...." The BBC use will and could interchangeably. According to....suggests strongly enough its a forecast. Its very similar to the previous forecast published by the NIESR the other day. Where are the credible forecasts suggesting we'll be better off? Our own government (and it isn't in their interests to say this) is forecasting we'll be worse off. As do independent and rigorous economic researchers...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Winchester White Posted November 28, 2018 Site Supporter Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) When they say our economy will be 100bn worse off, in what context is that? Does it mean the government coffers will be down 100bn or our GDP will be? Ignore me, just read it is GDP with 3.9% drop. Edited November 28, 2018 by Winchester White Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: "according to ...." The BBC use will and could interchangeably. According to....suggests strongly enough its a forecast. Its very similar to the previous forecast published by the NIESR the other day. Where are the credible forecasts suggesting we'll be better off? Our own government (and it isn't in their interests to say this) is forecasting we'll be worse off. As do independent and rigorous economic researchers...... “Official figures say the UK economy COULD be up to 3.9% smaller....” Did you deliberately miss that from your own link ? Same with the independent experts saying that equates to £100billion by the 2030’s.....that’s some distance off yet though isn’t it and not guaranteed.....plus, have they taken into account anything outside of Europe ? Slightly one sided account and almost as misleading as your headlines which you give as fact. At times like this.....it’s best saying nothing at all.... Edited November 28, 2018 by miamiwhite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, miamiwhite said: “Official figures say the UK economy COULD be up to 3.9% smaller....” Did you deliberately miss that from your own link ? Same with the independent experts saying that equates to £100billion by the 2030’s.....that’s some distance off yet though isn’t it and not guaranteed.....plus, have they taken into account anything outside of Europe ? Slightly one sided account and almost as misleading as your headlines which you give as fact. At times like this.....it’s best saying nothing at all.... Did you miss.... "The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, Treasury analysis suggests." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: Did you miss.... "The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, Treasury analysis suggests." Christ sake man...just admit you’re full of it and your own opinions which are not facts..... Just like the one above.........treasury analysis SUGGESTS.....suggests is not a fact......... Trained negotiator ? You couldn’t sort a round out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, miamiwhite said: Christ sake man...just admit you’re full of it and your own opinions which are not facts..... Just like the one above.........treasury analysis SUGGESTS.....suggests is not a fact......... Trained negotiator ? You couldn’t sort a round out You don't have any facts though. Just bluster. There is no counter to the two pieces of serious analysis. Find a serious group of independent researchers with equivalent credentials to counter this.....you cannot. This is not a grand remain conspiracy. Its what the government, independent experts and economists EXPECT to happen. The government argument is "this isn't just about the economy". They aren't even pretending this is a good thing for the economy. Yet they are delivering it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, bwfcfan5 said: You don't have any facts though. Just bluster. There is no counter to the two pieces of serious analysis. Find a serious group of independent researchers with equivalent credentials to counter this.....you cannot. This is not a grand remain conspiracy. Its what the government, independent experts and economists EXPECT to happen. The government argument is "this isn't just about the economy". They aren't even pretending this is a good thing for the economy. Yet they are delivering it. As I said, best to let the facts speak for themselves and not talk gibberish.....just like they did with the recession after the Brexit vote, huge job losses, profound economic shock.....none of those happened.. Let facts speak, then we’ll talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, miamiwhite said: As I said, best to let the facts speak for themselves and not talk gibberish.....just like they did with the recession after the Brexit vote, huge job losses, profound economic shock.....none of those happened.. Let facts speak, then we’ll talk. The trouble with that is it is then too late...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: The trouble with that is it is then too late...... There you go again.....taking it all as a given... Did the report take into account trade outside of the EU ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted November 28, 2018 Site Supporter Share Posted November 28, 2018 The report is based around four possible scenarios. Apparently. It might be a bit of a guide, but like a lot of things like this, hardly something to take as gospel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said: The report is based around four possible scenarios. Apparently. It might be a bit of a guide, but like a lot of things like this, hardly something to take as gospel. Correct sir.....take a prize from the top shelf R. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, miamiwhite said: There you go again.....taking it all as a given... Did the report take into account trade outside of the EU ? We're making decisions now. You have to take the evidence, weigh it, balance it against the outcomes and decide what to do. Nobody has said that any form of Brexit on the table will make us better off. Everyone so far, has said we'll be worse off. The two major reports are fairly similar in their predictions. I'm not saying that predictions are always right, I'm saying you don't have the luxury of "wait and see" and then turn the taps off if it floods. So you have to take the various pieces of evidence and use them to make an informed decision as to the course of action to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) Even project fear running out of steam. Chancellor reports with Mays deal we will be 3.9% worse off after 15 years that’s 0.26% each year. Can’t take any of this seriously there are so many other factors that play a part. If it pans out something like that it’s diddly squat. Edited November 28, 2018 by Mounts Kipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Even project fear running out of steam. 3.9% worse off after 15 years that’s 0.26% each year. It doesn't work like that. £100BN a year. At least we'll have that Brexit windfall...oh.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: We're making decisions now. You have to take the evidence, weigh it, balance it against the outcomes and decide what to do. Nobody has said that any form of Brexit on the table will make us better off. Everyone so far, has said we'll be worse off. The two major reports are fairly similar in their predictions. I'm not saying that predictions are always right, I'm saying you don't have the luxury of "wait and see" and then turn the taps off if it floods. So you have to take the various pieces of evidence and use them to make an informed decision as to the course of action to take. That’s probably your best and accurate post so far. To date, the only evidence is we voted to leave, so everybody should get behind it and make a decent fist of it instead of acting like spoilt kids. Going back to the report, was there any mention of trade outside the EU ? No one seems willing to answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonzo Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Why would anyone outside the EU trade with us when they can simply stay trading with the EU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted November 28, 2018 Site Supporter Share Posted November 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, gonzo said: Why would anyone outside the EU trade with us when they can simply stay trading with the EU? Might be cheaper? Quality? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: It doesn't work like that. £100BN a year. At least we'll have that Brexit windfall...oh.... How does it work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamiwhite Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: Might be cheaper? Quality? Mercosur being a prime example where it’s easier for that bloc to trade with us than the EU . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farrelli Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Project head in the sand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Are there any Economists that think we’ll be better off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, miamiwhite said: That’s probably your best and accurate post so far. To date, the only evidence is we voted to leave, so everybody should get behind it and make a decent fist of it instead of acting like spoilt kids. Going back to the report, was there any mention of trade outside the EU ? No one seems willing to answer. Get behind what? May's deal? Norway? Canada plus? No deal? See that is the issue. As for trade outside the EU - if May's deal gets through we won't necessarily be in a position to negotiate our own trade deals...... EDIT: Yes the govts analysis includes an assumption of "ambitious free trade deals with ROW".... Edited November 28, 2018 by bwfcfan5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 hours ago, miamiwhite said: Not will be...COULD BE.......and that’s from an independent source......don’t let facts ruin your headlines Kofi. And in any event it’s less than the money we’d pay the EU if we remained. Let’s end that madness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: And in any event it’s less than the money we’d pay the EU if we remained. Let’s end that madness. How is £100BN a year less than the money we pay the EU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 (edited) 8 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said: How is £100BN a year less than the money we pay the EU? We’re paying nearly nine billion nett now per year that’s 135 billion at today’s rates over a 15 year period that’s quantifiable unlike the report which is a possible projection, the payments to the EU only going 1 way. What would it be in 15 years time? I’m happy to take the 100 billion forecast with a pinch of salt. Edited November 28, 2018 by Mounts Kipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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