Slow news day? The real deal? End of the world? 
 

They’re saying it probably came from an animal, has Somebody been shagging monkeys again? 

 

3 minutes ago, jules_darby said:

 

Data manipulation at its greatest all this. 

8 minutes ago, stevieb said:

Data manipulation at its greatest all this. 

For what purpose?

How many do you reckon there are in the scheme of things, admitted to hospital with a broken leg or something else,  who also happen to test positive for covid at the same time, with the pcr test that supposedly only works for a few days after infection. They have to be tested and put on covid wards to protect all the other non covid inpatients.

What should we do with them, not record them at all or further subdivide the charts. We already knock off those who die after 28 days. Do we remove them from the discharged from hospital figures too?

I bet if you looked into it, the numbers would be inconsequential in the scheme if things. I doubt there's some politicians looking to inflate covid figures by including coincidental cases.

42 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Dr John thinks the Great Barrington declaration is a bit shit.

 

Loads on health, however not a single mention of the Economy (unless I missed it?) 

From the start this has been a balancing act about Health vs Economy, if you only look at it through one lens then you might as well not bother 

Let’s say the correct course is to do what we are doing, continually smash our economy to pieces until we get a vaccine (then hope it works). how long do we give this plan before we have to abandon it to protect the economy? We couldn’t carry on like this for 5 or 10 years, even 2 is unthinkable. How long do we prioritise health for? 
 

For me, it’s time the economy comes first, if you smash your economy then you won’t have a healthcare system that’s anywhere as good as what it was, similar for education and Welfare

If we carry on like this for 2 or even 3 years then many more people will die unnecessarily in the proceeding decades from the impact this will have on public services than we saved now 

9 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

For what purpose?

How many do you reckon there are in the scheme of things, admitted to hospital with a broken leg or something else,  who also happen to test positive for covid at the same time, with the pcr test that supposedly only works for a few days after infection. They have to be tested and put on covid wards to protect all the other non covid inpatients.

What should we do with them, not record them at all or further subdivide the charts. We already knock off those who die after 28 days. Do we remove them from the discharged from hospital figures too?

I bet if you looked into it, the numbers would be inconsequential in the scheme if things. I doubt there's some politicians looking to inflate covid figures by including coincidental cases.

At the start of this they passed legislation that you could be put as a covid death without a test if covid was suspected. 

I don't think we'll ever get clear data. 

For what purpose... Fuck knows. Doctors having less paperwork to do probably...Ushering in a new world order of our reptilian overlords... Possibly 🤣

Just now, birch-chorley said:

Loads on health, however not a single mention of the Economy (unless I missed it?) 

From the start this has been a balancing act about Health vs Economy, if you only look at it through one lens then you might as well not bother 

Let’s say the correct course is to do what we are doing, continually smash our economy to pieces until we get a vaccine (then hope it works). how long do we give this plan before we have to abandon it to protect the economy? We couldn’t carry on like this for 5 or 10 years, even 2 is unthinkable. How long do we prioritise health for? 
 

For me, it’s time the economy comes first, if you smash your economy then you won’t have a healthcare system that’s anywhere as good as what it was, similar for education and Welfare

If we carry on like this for 2 or even 3 years then many more people will die unnecessarily in the proceeding decades from the impact this will have on public services than we saved now 

He's not an economist. Whatever we do will have effects on the economy. Shielding the vulnerable millions won't create an automatic rebound, you're taking 20 odd million people out of normal circumstances for ages.

I know I keep going on about it, but more or less came up trumps again last night (I swear this thread would be about five pages if folk gave it a listen) the bit on the spreadsheet fuck up is excellent https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000n4vq

Medical practitioners are required to certify causes of death “to the best of their

knowledge and belief”. Without diagnostic proof, if appropriate and to avoid delay,

medical practitioners can circle ‘2’ in the MCCD (“information from post-mortem may be

available later”) or tick Box B on the reverse of the MCCD for ante-mortem

investigations. For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID-

19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give

‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it

becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to

apply clinical judgement.

Just now, stevieb said:

At the start of this they passed legislation that you could be put as a covid death without a test if covid was suspected. 

I don't think we'll ever get clear data. 

For what purpose... Fuck knows. Doctors having less paperwork to do probably...Ushering in a new world order of our reptilian overlords... Possibly 🤣

The reasoning behind that was for logistical purposes though, to make it easier to get covid numbers quickly, to enable responses to be faster  it wasn't to purposely inflate death numbers. 

Clear data is very difficult to get because tberes so much nuance. 

Wake me up in fucking spring. Anyway off to watch the sprog play for bwfc v Oldham  they're actually letting us watch, first time since Feb.

5 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said:

I know I keep going on about it, but more or less came up trumps again last night (I swear this thread would be about five pages if folk gave it a listen) the bit on the spreadsheet fuck up is excellent https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000n4vq

I'll have a go

15 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Loads on health, however not a single mention of the Economy (unless I missed it?) 

From the start this has been a balancing act about Health vs Economy, if you only look at it through one lens then you might as well not bother 

Let’s say the correct course is to do what we are doing, continually smash our economy to pieces until we get a vaccine (then hope it works). how long do we give this plan before we have to abandon it to protect the economy? We couldn’t carry on like this for 5 or 10 years, even 2 is unthinkable. How long do we prioritise health for? 
 

For me, it’s time the economy comes first, if you smash your economy then you won’t have a healthcare system that’s anywhere as good as what it was, similar for education and Welfare

If we carry on like this for 2 or even 3 years then many more people will die unnecessarily in the proceeding decades from the impact this will have on public services than we saved now 

The epidemic will end.

The degree of mess in the economy could last a very long time.

Perhaps the best way to measure the impact of Covid is excess deaths.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25september2020

6 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

The epidemic will end.

The degree of mess in the economy could last a very long time.

Be keen to know when it will end though Or more importantly when do we draw a line in the sand and put the economy before immediate health issues? The epidemic could go on for year’s, we can’t mess about like this for much longer 

The damage this will have on the economy is already great, it’s going to make 2008 look like a Teddy bears picnic in comparison. The whole 2008 crash had us go backwards by 7% GDP, we are already way beyond that and we haven’t reached the bottom 

Post 2008 health spending went from £118bn a year in 2010 to £134bn in 2020. Although it went up those ‘cuts’ to the NHS apparently meant 130,000 more people died unnecessarily than should have without the cuts....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report

How many will die over the next decade as a result of us paying for the economic damage of these measures? 

 

Australia closing its borders until end 2021.

They enjoy being locked up.

25 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Perhaps the best way to measure the impact of Covid is excess deaths.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending25september2020

Absolutely it is

25 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Be keen to know when it will end though Or more importantly when do we draw a line in the sand and put the economy before immediate health issues? The epidemic could go on for year’s, we can’t mess about like this for much longer 

The damage this will have on the economy is already great, it’s going to make 2008 look like a Teddy bears picnic in comparison. The whole 2008 crash had us go backwards by 7% GDP, we are already way beyond that and we haven’t reached the bottom 

Post 2008 health spending went from £118bn a year in 2010 to £134bn in 2020. Although it went up those ‘cuts’ to the NHS apparently meant 130,000 more people died unnecessarily than should have without the cuts....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report

How many will die over the next decade as a result of us paying for the economic damage of these measures? 

 

We should have a vaccine next year at some point

I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August

The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible

Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line

The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing

It requires a concerted effort from the all the public

And that's why we're fucked

3 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

We should have a vaccine next year at some point

I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August

The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible

Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line

The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing

It requires a concerted effort from the all the public

And that's why we're fucked

I don’t think we can rely on a vaccine working as well as we might hope.

10 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Australia closing its borders until end 2021.

They enjoy being locked up.

Shit!

Wont be seeing my son anytime soon.😩

Hopefully get the last 2 Tests in, if it goes ahead.

Just now, ZicoKelly said:

We should have a vaccine next year at some point

I would be more than happy to proceed with the measures that were in place in August

The focus would have to be on policing the rules and ensure as strict adherence as possible

Get the military involved if we have to, employ the jobless as covid enforcement officers, whatever is required to have a presence out there ensuring people and businesses are towing the line

The only way we get on top or beat this till the vaccine is to implement and follow the fundamental rules of sanitation and distancing

It requires a concerted effort from the all the public

And that's why we're fucked

Should have a vaccine next year, IF it comes and IF it works 

When do we draw a line in the sand and go for plan B if it doesn’t come or doesn’t work? 

How things were in August still means devastation for the economy. Lower GDP, lower tax receipts, more spending on jobless welfare etc.

The impact this will have on the government’s ability to spend on services is horrific. I’d like to see the Guardians projection of what the cuts will mean for excess deaths to come, I’d wager the projection is we are going to lose more in the years to come than we have saved now 

3 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Shit!

Wont be seeing my son anytime soon.😩

Hopefully get the last 2 Tests in, if it goes ahead.

It’ll go ahead, TV money will ensure, but whether we can get there is looking less likely!

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

Should have a vaccine next year, IF it comes and IF it works 

When do we draw a line in the sand and go for plan B if it doesn’t come or doesn’t work? 

How things were in August still means devastation for the economy. Lower GDP, lower tax receipts, more spending on jobless welfare etc.

The impact this will have on the government’s ability to spend on services is horrific. I’d like to see the Guardians projection of what the cuts will mean for excess deaths to come, I’d wager the projection is we are going to lose more in the years to come than we have saved now 

Plan B should be now, in my view.

But they won’t 

The WHO are advising countries not to lockdown 

5 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Should have a vaccine next year, IF it comes and IF it works 

When do we draw a line in the sand and go for plan B if it doesn’t come or doesn’t work? 

How things were in August still means devastation for the economy. Lower GDP, lower tax receipts, more spending on jobless welfare etc.

The impact this will have on the government’s ability to spend on services is horrific. I’d like to see the Guardians projection of what the cuts will mean for excess deaths to come, I’d wager the projection is we are going to lose more in the years to come than we have saved now 

The day after we find out it doesn't work and has caused a zombie uprising

Everything was pretty much open in August wasn't it?

If we carried on like that for 12 months with strict adherence to the rules, then would the economy not start to recover?

We need to get into a mindset of sanitisation and safety etc, because it might happen again in a few years, and it might be worse next time

1 minute ago, ZicoKelly said:

The day after we find out it doesn't work and has caused a zombie uprising

Everything was pretty much open in August wasn't it?

If we carried on like that for 12 months with strict adherence to the rules, then would the economy not start to recover?

We need to get into a mindset of sanitisation and safety etc, because it might happen again in a few years, and it might be worse next time

I don’t believe everything was open, far from it 

Rules on large gatherings pretty much knackers all sport, music, festivals and theatre. Social distancing also means  many businesses were only allowed to open on reduced capacity 

You weren’t allowed to travel any other country with over 20 cases per 1,000. That smashed the travel industry 

In terms of GDP data for August, the ONS has it -9.2% lower than February. The worst 2008 got was -7% and that was pretty much the worst performance since the Wall Street Crash in the 1920’s.

The ONS said: "The level of output has not fully recovered from the record falls seen across March and April 2020, and is still 9.2% below the levels seen in February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic."

And now we are taking the economy backwards yet again! 

15 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

It’ll go ahead, TV money will ensure, but whether we can get there is looking less likely!

MCG and SCG could be possible. 👍

On 09/10/2020 at 06:19, birch-chorley said:

I’d like to know what % of the 285 people on ventilators are from the vulnerable groups? 

If it’s a lot then surely it could support the idea of ‘locking up the oldies’ (asking the vulnerable groups to shield once more) 

Back in March we asked these groups to take additional measures above and beyond the rest of us by shielding (to protect the NHS). Not sure why that’s not on the table now? 

Before shutting down the leisure industry and sending millions of workers home to rely on state support, it feels (to me anyway) like we could have at least asked those in the vulnerable groups to instead avoid these places first. If pubs and restaurants are that bad for transmission of Covid that they need closing then why on Earth are we not telling the vulnerable to avoid them as a starting point? 

My Nan and Grandad are both in these groups, they spent August eating in the Morrison’s Cafe as it was 50% off and cheaper than buying food. From Monday it will be too dangerous for anyone to go in there, yet today we can all go in, no matter what are chances of requiring hospital treatment if we get Covid 

Madness 

 

I think advising people who were shielding before (circa 2.2m people IIRC) to do so again should absolutely be on the table as a measure.

It's the 'and then everyone else can crack on as normal' stage that I question.

In a month we've gone from 60 odd people a day being admitted to hospital with COVID, to 600 a day. And that's with a variety of measures in place that people think already are too extreme. 

2.2m people isn't going to make a difference on that scale. And as soon as you widen that (anyone over 70, people with obesity/asthma), it becomes such a large group of people that it'd be completely unenforceable.