Coronavirus

[peelyfeet]

2 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Not a bad result is it? 

Sure antibody tests are showing that a bigger % of their population has had Covid, this they have greater herd immunity within their community 

They haven’t restricted their economy to the same level as we have so are in much better shape financially, yet are still below us for deaths per 100,000 and we have taken our economy apart 

For years we will be seeing unnecessary deaths from cuts to the NHS budget yet they will be much closer to getting their economy back to normal 

I’d say they have fared a great deal better than we have thus far 

They're 15th worst out of 217 in the least deaths per 1m population charts 

They're 3 weeks behind us and cases are on the rise. 

They've been highlighted as a success by lockdown sceptics  because some of their restrictions have been less severe.

Taiwan have had no lockdown and 195000% less deaths per population, and their economy is ok, why aren't we banging on about them ?

 

[birch-chorley]

1 minute ago, Farrelli said:

Sweden has a population of about 10 million in a country twice as big as the UK. Plus they are far more compliant than your average Brit. They didn’t require enforcement of social distancing, they just did it.

I suppose, they have asked their vulnerable groups to shield and they have done so 

Apparently if we did that here our vulnerable groups would refuse. They would rather we go down the mass unemployment route rather than they did the right thing for the country 

Shame really 

[birch-chorley]

3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

They're 15th worst out of 217 in the least deaths per 1m population charts 

They're 3 weeks behind us and cases are on the rise. 

They've been highlighted as a success by lockdown sceptics  because some of their restrictions have been less severe.

Taiwan have had no lockdown and 195000% less deaths per population, and their economy is ok, why aren't we banging on about them ?

 

I’d love to follow the Taiwan model 

They have only taken their economy back by 0.5% 

We have taken ours back by 21.5% over the same period 

So we will be much worse off than them economically 

Can we follow the Taiwanese model and protect our economy / jobs 

[Zico]

7 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Interesting bit here....

 

From that, I'm glad we didn't take the Swedish approach because we'd be proper fucked by now

[birch-chorley]

Just now, ZicoKelly said:

From that, I'm glad we didn't take the Swedish approach because we'd be proper fucked by now

Would we? I didn’t get that from watching it 

Seems to me the vulnerable groups have voluntarily shielded in Sweden 👍🏻

The infection / death rates are higher but then again overall infection rates are still low here compared to Sweden. They are closer to seeing a benefit from herd immunity whilst we cling on for a vaccine 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

They're 15th worst out of 217 in the least deaths per 1m population charts 

They're 3 weeks behind us and cases are on the rise. 

They've been highlighted as a success by lockdown sceptics  because some of their restrictions have been less severe.

Taiwan have had no lockdown and 195000% less deaths per population, and their economy is ok, why aren't we banging on about them ?

 

They were my option 5 earlier this week!

I don't know if we could in truth, because they've been preparing for years and their track and trace measures will likely prove too invasive for a liberal democracy to tolerate. But we could certainly do worse than trying to replicate their model as much as possible. The main lessons we could take would be to be the need to act well in advance and to wear masks everywhere. We probably also need to develop a tolerance for measures which, at the time, seem ludicrous.

I'm not confident, though.

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

3 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Would we? I didn’t get that from watching it 

Seems to me the vulnerable groups have voluntarily shielded in Sweden 👍🏻

The infection / death rates are higher but then again overall infection rates are still low here compared to Sweden. They are closer to seeing a benefit from herd immunity whilst we cling on for a vaccine 

I think to a large degree the knowingly vulnerable over here have too. 

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

They were my option 5 earlier this week!

I don't know if we could in truth, because they've been preparing for years and their track and trace measures will likely prove too invasive for a liberal democracy to tolerate. But we could certainly do worse than trying to replicate their model as much as possible. The main lessons we could take would be to be the need to act well in advance and to wear masks everywhere. We probably also need to develop a tolerance for measures which, at the time, seem ludicrous.

I'm not confident, though.

I think we’ve had more cases in Chorley than they have had in Taiwan 

They have experience dealing with pandemics and jumped on it early doors so have basically eradicated it in their country 

They are just cracking on as normal now 

Can’t really compare what they are doing vs countries where the virus is in wide circulation 

[Zico]

7 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Would we? I didn’t get that from watching it 

Seems to me the vulnerable groups have voluntarily shielded in Sweden 👍🏻

The infection / death rates are higher but then again overall infection rates are still low here compared to Sweden. They are closer to seeing a benefit from herd immunity whilst we cling on for a vaccine 

"Voluntary social distancing"

"If you're told to stay at home, you stay at home"

Might work for Swedes, wouldn't work for Brits

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I think to a large degree the knowingly vulnerable over here have too. 

Are they 

In Sweden they are asking them to voluntarily shield, haven’t changed this since day 1 

According to many on here it’s a one out all policy as far as shielding goes (apart from tonnes of other differences like geographic location, industry etc) 

Bizarre really 

[peelyfeet]

Taiwan - since mid March - initially all foreign nationals banned from entering the country

and now -  Restrictions have since been relaxed for foreign university students and those seeking medical treatment in Taiwan, subject to prior government approval. All who are admitted into the country must complete a fourteen-day quarantine upon arrival, except for business travelers from countries determined to be at low or moderate risk, who are subject to five- or seven-day quarantines and must submit to a COVID-19 test.

UK in Summer

Deidre from Stockport moaning on ITV news because she'll have to cut her holiday to Turkey short by 2 days to avoid quarantining when she gets back, so she can go to work "I can't afford to not miss work, when I get back" - she says as she sips from a rum and coke,  in the Burak Bar in Bodrum.

It's jam today or jam tomorrow

We want as much Jam as we can get today and as much as we can get tomorrow.

 

 

 

Edited October 17, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

I think we’ve had more cases in Chorley than they have had in Taiwan 

They have experience dealing with pandemics and jumped on it early doors so have basically eradicated it in their country 

They are just cracking on as normal now 

Can’t really compare what they are doing vs countries where the virus is in wide circulation 

To be fair, my option was a nationwide "circuit-bfeaker" to bring cases down to a very low level, and then adopt the Taiwan model. 

Unfortunately, I think to make it work requires a compliance level we can't get to.

[birch-chorley]

1 minute ago, ZicoKelly said:

"Voluntary social distancing"

"If you're told to stay at home, you stay at home"

Might work for Swedes, wouldn't work for Brits

Such a shame 

The vulnerable groups would rather the economy go to shit and millions lose their jobs than follow different guidelines to other groups 

A bit like someone from Merseyside fucking the rules off because folk in Cheshire don’t have to adhere to the same restrictions 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

2 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Are they 

In Sweden they are asking them to voluntarily shield, haven’t changed this since day 1 

According to many on here it’s a one out all policy as far as shielding goes (apart from tonnes of other differences like geographic location, industry etc) 

Bizarre really 

In my experience, yes. I'm not talking about government guidance, I'm talking about people's actions. It seems to me that the majority of people who know they're vulnerable are still treading extremely cautiously because they know they're at risk. It doesn't matter whether the government tells them not to.

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Taiwan - since mid April - initially all foreign nationals banned from entering the country

and now -  Restrictions have since been relaxed for foreign university students and those seeking medical treatment in Taiwan, subject to prior government approval. All who are admitted into the country must complete a fourteen-day quarantine upon arrival, except for business travelers from countries determined to be at low or moderate risk, who are subject to five- or seven-day quarantines and must submit to a COVID-19 test.

UK in Summer

Deidre from Stockport moaning on ITV news because she'll have to cut her holiday to Turkey short by 2 days to avoid quarantining when she gets back, so she can go to work "I can't afford to not miss work, when I get back" - she says as she sips from a rum and coke,  in the Burak Bar in Bodrum.

It's jam today or jam tomorrow

We want as much Jam as we can get today and as much as we can get tomorrow.

 

 

 

folk going on holiday to places that had similar transmission rates to here isn’t the reason why we are having a second wave 

Even if we banned foreign travel and everyone had a staycation, the virus was out of the bag here and across Europe 

Taiwan nipped it in the bud at 500 cases and 7 deaths and locked the doors. If we had managed to nip it in the bud at those numbers we would have also locked the doors. Let’s not forget we as good as banned foreign holidays, travel was only allowed to very few places, all of which had lower transmission than here

Tell it to the hundreds of thousands of folk in the travel industry who have lost their jobs over the past few months. I guess they could all retrain as Software Engineers of whatever it the government is advising 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

folk going on holiday to places that had similar transmission rates to here isn’t the reason why we are having a second wave 

Even if we banned foreign travel and everyone had a staycation, the virus was out of the bag here and across Europe 

Taiwan nipped it in the bud at 500 cases and 7 deaths and locked the doors. If we had managed to nip it in the bud at those numbers we would have also locked the doors. Let’s not forget we as good as banned foreign holidays, travel was only allowed to very few places, all of which had lower transmission than here

Tell it to the hundreds of thousands of folk in the travel industry who have lost their jobs over the past few months. I guess they could all retrain as Software Engineers of whatever it the government is advising 

I think this is the point I was making about tolerance for what seem like ludicrous measures. A zero risk approach needs to be temporarily adopted. If elimination is the goal that's how it's done.

[peelyfeet]

Just now, birch-chorley said:

folk going on holiday to places that had similar transmission rates to here isn’t the reason why we are having a second wave 

Even if we banned foreign travel and everyone had a staycation, the virus was out of the bag here and across Europe 

Taiwan nipped it in the bud at 500 cases and 7 deaths and locked the doors. If we had managed to nip it in the bud at those numbers we would have also locked the doors. Let’s not forget we as good as banned foreign holidays, travel was only allowed to very few places, all of which had lower transmission than here

Tell it to the hundreds of thousands of folk in the travel industry who have lost their jobs over the past few months. I guess they could all retrain as Software Engineers of whatever it the government is advising 

My wife is a senior operations manager for the UK's largest Business travel firm. They are fucked because even if we let folk travel around the world, the majority of the  countries where they want to travel to aren't letting them in, or want them to quarantine on arrival. 

Travelling causes infection spread because you expose yourself to a much larger pot of people, than you do when you stay at home and go to work.  The more contacts you make, the higher your % chance of catching the virus. You have to go through airports, sit on planes and coaches for hours, with folk from your country that you wouldnt meet if you were in Chorley for 2 weeks. 

 

[birch-chorley]

6 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I think this is the point I was making about tolerance for what seem like ludicrous measures. A zero risk approach needs to be temporarily adopted. If elimination is the goal that's how it's done.

I think the only way you can eliminate it now is for everyone (or most people) to get it 

That’s either a vaccine or failing that everyone getting it 

I think we’ve taken the ‘zero risk’ approach as far as we can (back in Spring), it’s not a viable economic option 

[birch-chorley]

1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

My wife is a senior operations manager for the UK's largest Business travel firm. They are fucked because even if we let folk travel around the world, the majority of the  countries where they want to travel to aren't letting them in, or want them to quarantine on arrival. 

Travelling causes infection spread because you expose yourself to a much larger pot of people, than you do when you stay at home and go to work.  The more contacts you make, the higher your % chance of catching the virus. You have to go through airports, sit on planes and coaches for hours, with folk from your country that you wouldnt meet if you were in Chorley for 2 weeks. 

 

Your comparing someone going on holiday abroad with staying at home though, that’s not a fair representation is it 

Folk just went on holiday in the U.K. instead (sitting on coaches, visiting petrol stations, going to parks etc), again exposing to a much larger pool of people vs sitting at home 

If the government guidelines were to stay at home with both foreign holidays and staycations banned then the economic damage would have been even greater. Perhaps we would have fucked our economy by a third rather than the meagre -21% 

[Ani]

11 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

folk going on holiday to places that had similar transmission rates to here isn’t the reason why we are having a second wave 

Even if we banned foreign travel and everyone had a staycation, the virus was out of the bag here and across Europe 

Taiwan nipped it in the bud at 500 cases and 7 deaths and locked the doors. If we had managed to nip it in the bud at those numbers we would have also locked the doors. Let’s not forget we as good as banned foreign holidays, travel was only allowed to very few places, all of which had lower transmission than here

Tell it to the hundreds of thousands of folk in the travel industry who have lost their jobs over the past few months. I guess they could all retrain as Software Engineers of whatever it the government is advising 

Do you think if we had introduced a total lockdown say 3 weeks before we did people would have followed it ? 
On the 6th March I was in pub with mates saying ‘why such a fuss about flu?’  13th March Uni reunion, all of a sudden people were ‘oh shit this is serious’ week after restrictions announced.

Even a month ago there were plenty of people saying it was a lot of fuss over nothing. You mention the travel industry, a severe lock down would have stopped travel then and presumably still be banned from areas with high infections. 

You keep mentioning the vulnerable and implying they are not shielding. Everyone I know over 65 is shielding. My Missus is ‘vulnerable’ and is very strict on the rules. The only vulnerable group not shielding seem to be fat middle aged blokes. 

If you want a like for like comparison how are Sweden doing compared to other Scandinavian countries. 

[peelyfeet]

Just now, birch-chorley said:

Your comparing someone going on holiday abroad with staying at home though, that’s not a fair representation is it 

Folk just went on holiday in the U.K. instead (sitting on coaches, visiting petrol stations, going to parks etc), again exposing to a much larger pool of people vs sitting at home 

If the government guidelines were to stay at home with both foreign holidays and staycations banned then the economic damage would have been even greater. Perhaps we would have fucked our economy by a third rather than the meagre -21% 

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think youre looking short term. If we had done a Taiwan in Summer, which we could have, we would be looking to arrange travel bubbles now, but we aren't going to be able to for months. how do you think the travel industry will like that?

    

 

 

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, Ani said:

Do you think if we had introduced a total lockdown say 3 weeks before we did people would have followed it ? 
On the 6th March I was in pub with mates saying ‘why such a fuss about flu?’  13th March Uni reunion, all of a sudden people were ‘oh shit this is serious’ week after restrictions announced.

Even a month ago there were plenty of people saying it was a lot of fuss over nothing. You mention the travel industry, a severe lock down would have stopped travel then and presumably still be banned from areas with high infections. 

You keep mentioning the vulnerable and implying they are not shielding. Everyone I know over 65 is shielding. My Missus is ‘vulnerable’ and is very strict on the rules. The only vulnerable group not shielding seem to be fat middle aged blokes. 

If you want a like for like comparison how are Sweden doing compared to other Scandinavian countries. 

If in fact a lot of the vulnerable groups are shielding then it goes against the general consensus on here a week ago which was more like ‘you cant ask the elderly to follow different guidelines to the rest of us’

Although we seem fine asking someone from merseyside to follow different guidelines than someone in Cheshire 

Or for someone working in travel to take a bigger hit than another person in a different industry 

I think it’s safe to say a nationwide lockdown earlier would have given us a better chance to do a Taiwan and nip it in the bud, hindsight though I suppose, would have been a tough sell for the government

Would love to see data that compares Sweden to other Scandinavian countries. Not just per 100,000 though, weighted by % of population who have the Covid antibody. I think you’d find a lot more Swedish have had it vs their neighbours so they are closer to some sort of herd immunity whilst the others are pinning their hopes solely on vaccine, that may not come for years 

[birch-chorley]

3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think youre looking short term. If we had done a Taiwan in Summer, which we could have, we would be looking to arrange travel bubbles now, but we aren't going to be able to for months. how do you think the travel industry will like that?

    

 

 

Taiwan did a Taiwan in the Winter / early Spring, they have only had 500 cases in total 

They were screening flights from China as soon as the rumours started, long before Covid even had a name

They locked down very early and nipped it in the bud, it’s been business as usual within the country for many months 

That’s why their economy only shrank by 1% and ours shrank by over 20% 

[dave2980]

1 hour ago, Farrelli said:

Sweden has a population of about 10 million in a country twice as big as the UK. Plus they are far more compliant than your average Brit. They didn’t require enforcement of social distancing, they just did it.

Having been as recently as last week I call bollocks

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

Taiwan did a Taiwan in the Winter / early Spring, they have only had 500 cases in total 

They were screening flights from China as soon as the rumours started, long before Covid even had a name

They locked down very early and nipped it in the bud, it’s been business as usual within the country for many months 

That’s why their economy only shrank by 1% and ours shrank by over 20% 

the date is irrelevant - we could have tried the same by extending the intial lockdown for a bit longer, but we didn't beacause we prioritised short term economic gain, and now its bitten us in the bum.