The other day Rudy said we were 250-1 to win the league.

I put £10 on at 150-1.

Decent odds for a team on a roll.

I might watch Cheltenham tomorrow and cheer on Carlisle 

Be great for 3 teams going into the final two games separated by 2 points, that would be exciting 

15 hours ago, jmjhb said:

89.1% chance of Top 3

4.2% 1st

28.9% 2nd

56.0% 3rd

This is really where it gets fucking odd:

77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but

78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion

79 obviously is 100%  

A sleepless night, either because my partner is awaitng her 11th grandchild or because I was trying to figure out the anomaly on 78 pts. I think that there is a transcription error and that the computer calculated 68.8% but a human interface wrote it down as 48.8%. After all, we do know that the only difference between going up on 77 and going up on 78 is if Cambridge lose twice and one, but not both, of Morecambe and Tranmere win twice. 

1 hour ago, Rudy said:

I might watch Cheltenham tomorrow and cheer on Carlisle 

Be great for 3 teams going into the final two games separated by 2 points, that would be exciting 

As long as we're at the top. 

11 hours ago, captainmed said:

Yes I didn’t even consider Cambridge.

So therefore the point that the analysis is incorrect still stands.

I think that this, along with my point, shows that the probability of going up with 78 points, is definitely HIGHER than the probability of going up with 77.

 

 

There is no way we can be less likely to get promoted with more points. I like my maths stuff and it is not possible. Without working out all scenarios it could be the same but certainly not less. 

10 hours ago, Zico said:

I'm all for stats and stuff but to be arguing the toss over a 63.3% chance of going up or a 65.7% chance is in "never kissed a girl free of charge" territory

Hang on, after 9 grand's worth of ale, I'm amazed you managed to compile a list of the most accurate tit assessors. 

That's dedication to nerdism (or should that be nippleism).

 

Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Hang on, after 9 grand's worth of ale, I'm amazed you managed to compile a list of the most accurate tit assessors. 

That's dedication to nerdism (or should that be nippleism).

 

And i kissed all the girls in the pictures whilst going back over the previous games

On 22/04/2021 at 10:45, Ani said:

Let's be honest the typical Bolton way is beat Morecambe, lose next game, win last game. 

For once I would be happy to be only half right. 

Been a strange season and who knows what’s going to happen. We could be top Saturday night or needing a win on the final day. As long as we are not in this league next season I don’t care

Just win on Saturday & anything else after that is a bonus.

I've decided Tranmere won't win at FGR, and Morecambe may be a bit down and therefore will fail to beat Walsall. 

Point will be enough, so yes, we're going up.

Best odds on us is 1/10 so bookies think it’s over. 🤞

17 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Best odds on us is 1/10 so bookies think it’s over. 🤞

https://racedays.co.uk/shortest-priced-losers/  Just saying like 🤪😜🤯

Anyway how come bookies ain’t paying top7 finish out?

24 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

What did you get for that ? 

Maybe they are waiting for the season to end to pay out.

Just £200 but few bookies have already paid out 

1 hour ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Anyway how come bookies ain’t paying top7 finish out?

Bet365 have paid out top 7 

35 minutes ago, Ani said:

Bet365 have paid out top 7 

Yes I believe so

Hills are shit 

13 hours ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Anyway how come bookies ain’t paying top7 finish out?

They're just holding the money for as long as they can. It will be under the guise that we've not finished in the top 7 yet, as the league is still on going.....I'm assuming they wait until final league standings in case something ridiculous, like points deduction for setting fire to the opposition goalkeeper or administration or something happens

3 minutes ago, Sweep said:

They're just holding the money for as long as they can. It will be under the guise that we've not finished in the top 7 yet, as the league is still on going.....I'm assuming they wait until final league standings in case something ridiculous, like points deduction for setting fire to the opposition goalkeeper or administration or something happens

Total guess but some systems may be able to pay out on individual teams placings whereas others need the final top 7 in place before processing all payments across all teams

1 hour ago, Zico said:

Total guess but some systems may be able to pay out on individual teams placings whereas others need the final top 7 in place before processing all payments across all teams

that's probably more logical than my "setting fire to the opposition goalkeeper" thought 🙂

Cash flow, hold on to cash in your bank as long as possible. Always a maxim in industry.

Though I do recall Paddy Piwer paying out early on something which then, unexpectedly, didn't happen. The Paddy team were asked about this error & he shrugged his shoulders & said wtte of "we'll have it all back inside the month".

56 minutes ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

Cash flow, hold on to cash in your bank as long as possible. Always a maxim in industry.

Though I do recall Paddy Piwer paying out early on something which then, unexpectedly, didn't happen. The Paddy team were asked about this error & he shrugged his shoulders & said wtte of "we'll have it all back inside the month".

Fred Done said something like the best thing he ever did in terms of PR and earnings was when he paid out dead early on Utd winning the title which Arsenal went on to win

1 hour ago, Zico said:

Fred Done said something like the best thing he ever did in terms of PR and earnings was when he paid out dead early on Utd winning the title which Arsenal went on to win

Correct, the amount of press/media exposure they got would have cost far more in paid advertising, plus it made them out to be "good guys"

Just thinking to meself, we could win the title by going top for the first time on the last day, bet thats not happened to many times?.

3 hours ago, Good Knee said:

Just thinking to meself, we could win the title by going top for the first time on the last day, bet thats not happened to many times?.

Perhaps we're gettin a bit Kevin Sheedy now - promotion would suffice!!

4 hours ago, Good Knee said:

Just thinking to meself, we could win the title by going top for the first time on the last day, bet thats not happened to many times?.

Burnley did it in 59/60.