The other day Rudy said we were 250-1 to win the league.

I put £10 on at 150-1.

Decent odds for a team on a roll.

That's definitely bonkers.

Yes.

Great reaction to the defeat @ Grimsby.

With just one more point there is a 60% chance of promotion.

I’ve not given up on champs yet, unlikely but not unthinkable. 

15 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

89.1% chance of Top 3

4.2% 1st

28.9% 2nd

56.0% 3rd

This is really where it gets fucking odd:

77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but

78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion

79 obviously is 100%  

It looks crazy.

But is it because both Morecambe and Tranmere can't finish on 77 but can get to 78.

Weird though.

2 minutes ago, gregbwfc said:

It looks crazy.

But is it because both Morecambe and Tranmere can't finish on 77 but can get to 78.

Weird though.

Sort of makes sense, but as neither play us again, their games have no bearing on our points potential, therefore 77 would have a lower percentage than 78 wouldn't it?

78 means two draws for us, therfore no goal difference change.

77 means a reduction in goal difference. 

For those two clubs 78 means a goal difference improvement of at least two, which pushes Morecambe above us, and maybe Tranmere too.

Think you've summed it up perfectly 👍

Definitely strange, but it's so close I don't think we even need the percentages now. Down to 2 games. I'm not sure either Morecambe or Tranmere win 2 so we may only need a point come the end. 

Hope we get 3 next week to make sure though. 

10 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’ve not given up on champs yet, unlikely but not unthinkable. 

Real chance of runners up, especially Cambridge have Grimsby last game who may need to win themselves 

2nd 

Just for fun, Cheltenham to get a draw and a loss next two. Cambridge draw and we win at the weekend. 

Three way split amongst 3 promoted sides last game for the title. 

18 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Just for fun, Cheltenham to get a draw and a loss next two. Cambridge draw and we win at the weekend. 

Three way split amongst 3 promoted sides last game for the title. 

And an incident at our game delays us for 10 minutes so we’re aware both Cheltenham and Cambridge have lost and all we need to do is defend our 5 goal lead.

7 minutes ago, MickyD said:

And an incident at our game delays us for 10 minutes so we’re aware both Cheltenham and Cambridge have lost and all we need to do is defend our 5 goal lead.

Much to the chagrin of WS63.

1 hour ago, jmjhb said:

89.1% chance of Top 3

4.2% 1st

28.9% 2nd

56.0% 3rd

This is really where it gets fucking odd:

77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but

78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion

79 obviously is 100%  

Can't get my head round why we only have a 4.2% chance of winning the league? We're only 2 points behind the leaders ffs.

Just now, Burndens Bogs said:

Can't get my head round why we only have a 4.2% chance of winning the league? We're only 2 points behind the leaders ffs.

Think it's because they've a game in hand.

Given the other stats are a bit weird, that one may be bollocks too though. 

Just need Carlisle to make it interesting on Tuesday. 

2 minutes ago, Burndens Bogs said:

Can't get my head round why we only have a 4.2% chance of winning the league? We're only 2 points behind the leaders ffs.

I assume it's down to them also having a game in hand, and a huge goal difference on us

Edited April 25, 20215 yr by Sweep

1 hour ago, jmjhb said:

89.1% chance of Top 3

4.2% 1st

28.9% 2nd

56.0% 3rd

This is really where it gets fucking odd:

77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but

78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion

79 obviously is 100%  

This is surely incorrect. 

If we get to 77 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games.

Similarly, if we get to 78 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games.

Therefore, the probability of going up with 78 points is surely the same as with 77 points (and is equal to the probability of neither Morecambe or Tranmere winning their last two games). 

 

2 hours ago, MickyD said:

And an incident at our game delays us for 10 minutes so we’re aware both Cheltenham and Cambridge have lost and all we need to do is defend our 5 goal lead.

And one of the posters is moaning that we have missed an easy chance to make it 6-0 and wants IE sacked. Hughmongus then comes on and says IE should have won the league by 25 points

2 hours ago, captainmed said:

This is surely incorrect. 

If we get to 77 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games.

Similarly, if we get to 78 points, we go up if neither Morecambe or Tranmere win their last two games.

Therefore, the probability of going up with 78 points is surely the same as with 77 points (and is equal to the probability of neither Morecambe or Tranmere winning their last two games). 

 

Not quite the same. If we have 78 and Cambridge lose their last 2 games we are ahead of them, but if we have 77 we are behind them.

15 minutes ago, MalcolmW said:

Not quite the same. If we have 78 and Cambridge lose their last 2 games we are ahead of them, but if we have 77 we are behind them.

Yes I didn’t even consider Cambridge.

So therefore the point that the analysis is incorrect still stands.

I think that this, along with my point, shows that the probability of going up with 78 points, is definitely HIGHER than the probability of going up with 77.

 

 

just looked at the site.

Not sure if its the same site that jmjhb looked at, but:

 

76: 27.3 % chance of promotion.

77:  63.3%

78:  66.1%

79,80 & 82: 100%

http://www.probs4.club/p4cTeam/Bolton

 

 

35 minutes ago, captainmed said:

Yes I didn’t even consider Cambridge.

So therefore the point that the analysis is incorrect still stands.

I think that this, along with my point, shows that the probability of going up with 78 points, is definitely HIGHER than the probability of going up with 77.

 

 

Agreed.

Fuck me 

Talk about nerds with stats and spreadsheets 

We are 100% going up

1 minute ago, Mr Grey said:

Its nerdy end of the season time 🤓

I'm all for stats and stuff but to be arguing the toss over a 63.3% chance of going up or a 65.7% chance is in "never kissed a girl free of charge" territory

54 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said:

just looked at the site.

Not sure if its the same site that jmjhb looked at, but:

 

76: 27.3 % chance of promotion.

77:  63.3%

78:  66.1%

79,80 & 82: 100%

http://www.probs4.club/p4cTeam/Bolton

 

 

It is, but I was reading off a different chart

1 hour ago, Zico said:

We are 100% going up

Been saying it for ages.

UTFW