The other day Rudy said we were 250-1 to win the league.

I put £10 on at 150-1.

Decent odds for a team on a roll.

Cash out on title gone from 186 to 69

On 14/04/2021 at 11:32, jmjhb said:

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

51.7% chance of Top 3

3.0% 1st

11.8% 2nd

36.9% 3rd

76 points gives a 49.4% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 75.5% chance

We’re going up. Simple as.

Avoid defeat Saturday and I think we’ll be ok 

Either way, its gonna be painful

Cash out dropping again now surely, despite the victory.

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Cash out dropping again now surely, despite the victory.

On title yes, not sure promotion. Top 7 might pay out in full. 

4 minutes ago, Ani said:

On title yes, not sure promotion. Top 7 might pay out in full. 

Of course, I'm more thinking the guys hanging on for the bigger money of top spot.

Think that's gone now, though not impossible. 

1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Of course, I'm more thinking the guys hanging on for the bigger money of top spot.

Think that's gone now, though not impossible. 

Offering me £61.76 on my £100.00 at 10-1.

Think I'll leave it. Win our last three and it could well come off.

On the other hand, we look a bit shit again recently 🤔

The Whites are going up.

UTFW

No

despite our 'blip' i believe we are one point off the top of the form table of the teams at the top...ie as far down as newport

9 minutes ago, Casino said:

despite our 'blip' i believe we are one point off the top of the form table of the teams at the top...ie as far down as newport

Top four all won 3 of last five.

We've lost 2, the rest have drawn one and lost one.

Think we're comfortably the best team since the Jan window.

Morecambe are 4th playing us when we still need results. 

I'm nervous about it but no reason we shouldn't be able to win. 

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/daterange/fromdate:2021-Jan-31/todate:2021-Jun-01/type:home-and-away/

15 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Of course, I'm more thinking the guys hanging on for the bigger money of top spot.

Think that's gone now, though not impossible. 

Mine are all each way based on the top three so I’m happy to let mine ride. Main thing is avoiding the play offs. 

2 hours ago, Casino said:

despite our 'blip' i believe we are one point off the top of the form table of the teams at the top...ie as far down as newport

Over the last 5 games https://www.flashscore.co.uk/standings/M7fKzFpC/WYmmpWOA/#form/overall/5

On 18/04/2021 at 14:42, jmjhb said:

51.7% chance of Top 3

3.0% 1st

11.8% 2nd

36.9% 3rd

76 points gives a 49.4% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 75.5% chance

Hmm, not sure I agree with this - despite winning last night our chances of top 3 have gone down 5%:

46.1% chance of Top 3

0.8% 1st

7.0% 2nd

38.2% 3rd

77 points gives a 41.6% chance of promotion

78 points gives a 62.8% chance

Edited April 21, 20215 yr by jmjhb

E I E I E I O Bolton are back hello

2 hours ago, jmjhb said:

Hmm, not sure I agree with this - despite winning last night our chances of top 3 have gone down 5%:

46.1% chance of Top 3

0.8% 1st

7.0% 2nd

38.2% 3rd

77 points gives a 41.6% chance of promotion

78 points gives a 62.8% chance

Seems weird, unless it takes the form of other clubs into account too.

That 78 points is actually quite telling- it means 5 points, which in turn means stopping Morecambe beating us. Could be vital.

23 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Seems weird, unless it takes the form of other clubs into account too.

That 78 points is actually quite telling- it means 5 points, which in turn means stopping Morecambe beating us. Could be vital.

Or remaining games?

Morecambe H PPG 1.95

Exeter A PPG 1.23

Crawley H PPG 1.67

v

Bolton A PPG 1.67

Walsall H PPG 1.23

Bradford A PPG 1.19

 

So on paper our opponents earn more points home/away respectively. 

Beat Morecambe will go up.

Draw will probably will

Lose and we might not

Lose and forget it I know it’s been a very unpredictable league but morecambe have 2 good fixtures there 

5 hours ago, burnden said:

Over the last 5 games https://www.flashscore.co.uk/standings/M7fKzFpC/WYmmpWOA/#form/overall/5

You can end up making out our “form” to be whatever you want it to be. 4 games has us level on points with Morecambe, 8 has us above them.

Play to our best and potential, which we have done more often than not since January we’ll win. I’ve accepted that this won’t be a comfortable or convincing scoreline but I’m sure the majority of us don’t give a shiny shite as long as we win. Some of us (not me) will be happy with a point. I get this as it still leaves it all in our hands. 

38 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Lose and forget it I know it’s been a very unpredictable league but morecambe have 2 good fixtures there 

Unless Bradford need something from the last game to get in the play offs, could have done with them beating trampmere last night.

2 hours ago, Razaldo9 said:

Or remaining games?

Morecambe H PPG 1.95

Exeter A PPG 1.23

Crawley H PPG 1.67

v

Bolton A PPG 1.67

Walsall H PPG 1.23

Bradford A PPG 1.19

 

So on paper our opponents earn more points home/away respectively. 

Could be, suppose that's where overall stats can be misleading, when compared to recent form.