Really is a big game this.

Heading to the abyss of the season this is where we really do need to make a statement and start kicking on.

 

got to be looking at two wins here and v burton...

and not papering over the crackesque wins along with the sentiment any win will do

proper performances and wins that will convince we're back on track

these will score and I don't think we've got 2 goals in us to win the game 

1-1

The start of a seriously ‘easy’ run on paper.

I’ve got us 5 points off the requirement for 88 points. I’ve also got 11 wins and 2 draws in the next 13 games (based purely on expected outcome for each individual game and highlighting how ‘easy’ it is).

If we win all the next 13 then we’re still 1 point off, albeit the last 6 games are difficult and so there’s an expected 5 points from them, so you’d only need to win 2 of the last 6 and you end up at 88.

Simply put, we need to win this and the vast majority of games through Feb and March.

2-0 Dalby and ACD

5 minutes ago, Eddie said:

The start of a seriously ‘easy’ run on paper.

I’ve got us 5 points off the requirement for 88 points. I’ve also got 11 wins and 2 draws in the next 13 games (based purely on expected outcome for each individual game and highlighting how ‘easy’ it is).

 

Crikey, I'd be surprised if we got anywhere near that level of results. I think I'm closer to 5 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses 😁

 

I think I heard  @L/H White predict similar to you for the upcoming run though, so who knows

2 hours ago, gonzo said:

Really is a big game this.

Heading to the abyss of the season this is where we really do need to make a statement and start kicking on.

 

You’ll be turning up then as it’s a big game 👀 

20 minutes ago, barrycowdrill said:

You’ll be turning up then as it’s a big game 👀 

wont see him tuesday night v burton, thats a fact

Just now, L/H White said:

wont see him tuesday night v burton, thats a fact

Always on the cadge for spares for the big games then trying to get rid of his for all the others 

Just now, barrycowdrill said:

Always on the cadge for spares for the big games then trying to get rid of his for all the others 

yep, absolute scumbag

Any Spares lads

38 minutes ago, gonzo said:

Any Spares lads

Dipstick 

2 hours ago, Sweep said:

Crikey, I'd be surprised if we got anywhere near that level of results. I think I'm closer to 5 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses 😁

 

I think I heard  @L/H White predict similar to you for the upcoming run though, so who knows

Not saying I think we’ll get it, to be clear - I wish!

It’s based on what you’d expect for each individual game for the season and so really it just shows how easy a run we’ve got. For context though I’ve got 5 draws and a loss in the last 6 games, it really is a tough run in.

In reality, we won’t get 11 wins and 2 draws but should still get into the last 6 games well in the mix because we should easily go at over 2ppt for 13 games. We’ve then got to win some big games to stay there!

edit - your prediction for the next 12 would have us way off! Let’s hope it’s a fair bit better than that.

Edited January 21Jan 21 by Eddie

1 minute ago, Eddie said:

 

edit - your prediction for the next 12 would have us way off! Let’s hope it’s a fair bit better than that.

Indeed.

For what it's worth, I think we'll finish 4th or 5th, I don't think we're getting anywhere near top2 (top has already gone IMO), unless somebody who can score goals suddenly appears in the squad

I suppose if we're to apply the same mix of results as we've been having to date it'd be 5-5-3 from those 13 games, adding another 18 points. Would be enough going into the last 6 to be on track for play offs but no more. 

Unless we're magically going to start scoring bundles of goals, starting from the premise of the opponents getting 0 every week would have to be the way. We might win one or two more then, albeit tight, tedious 1 and 2-0s. I wouldn't personally be that bothered, winning football will do and will build confidence and belief. 

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

Indeed.

For what it's worth, I think we'll finish 4th or 5th, I don't think we're getting anywhere near top2 (top has already gone IMO), unless somebody who can score goals suddenly appears in the squad

On one hand I agree, I think we’re too far off the usual run rate needed for promotion.

The optimist in me says:

- it’s going to need fewer points this year to get 2nd. The points are being shared other than for Cardiff who have gone.

- it might be harsh but chasing Lincoln doesn’t seem too intimidating. I still think they’ll have a blip and come back to the pack, it’s rare that 2 teams are gone half way through the season and stay there.

- if they do then we’re not far off the chasing pack (Bradford and Stockport), neither of whom seem particularly strong

- the weighting of difficulty in the second half of the season, with all the hard games literally in the last 6, should mean that we catch up points and will be in a good position come April for the run in, whilst the others have played tough games up to that point. Hopefully that will mean we’re confident and therefore able to take more points than expected in the last 6 (when others will have easier games on paper). No game is easy at that point in the season so actually you are better having your tough ones then.

Ever the optimist - fuck it, we’re going up.

no more room for slip ups, as to be 6 from 6, though we said that vs Mansfield and Northampton, so nothings a given, at least we are surely due some goals at home with 3 without.

Cardiff v Stockport and Huddersfield v Bradford on Sat.

 

Tasty.

Just got to win, and we'll take an advantage one way or the other.

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Just got to win, and we'll take an advantage one way or the other.

True, all we can do is win and see what happens, we need a couple of those above us to have the sort of blip we've had. It's possible, but will need to make sure we capitalise on any slips that are made

2 minutes ago, Sweep said:

True, all we can do is win and see what happens, we need a couple of those above us to have the sort of blip we've had. It's possible, but will need to make sure we capitalise on any slips that are made

Beating some of them on their own turf wouldn't go amiss neither.

Has to be the win. Do not care how.

Many is the time over the years we have beaten these 1-0 at home with a second half goal. First I can remember was a Mike Carter winner on a wet and windy day in the early 80s after another typically bad start to an old  Div 2 season for those days. I can also remember David Reeves getting a very late winner against them in the early 90s and Andy Walker another in the Bruce promotion season. Same again would do. Given our recent form and the history of this fixture a scoreline featuring 1s and 0s must be favourite.

1 hour ago, ianofcleveleys said:

I suppose if we're to apply the same mix of results as we've been having to date it'd be 5-5-3 from those 13 games, adding another 18 points. Would be enough going into the last 6 to be on track for play offs but no more. 

Unless we're magically going to start scoring bundles of goals, starting from the premise of the opponents getting 0 every week would have to be the way. We might win one or two more then, albeit tight, tedious 1 and 2-0s. I wouldn't personally be that bothered, winning football will do and will build confidence and belief. 

 

If we're only on 61 points with six games left, given who those six games are, we're heading for midtable. 71 is the lowest number of points to finish 6th in the last 10 years.

People have been saying all season that we'll go on a run eventually. These next 12 games are the last chance saloon for that. 10 wins would give us a decent chance of taking second. 

Orient have lost 9 of 12 away, so we couldn't ask for a better game to start.

When Orient are playing there is always at least one O!

3 hours ago, Eddie said:

On one hand I agree, I think we’re too far off the usual run rate needed for promotion.

The optimist in me says:

- it’s going to need fewer points this year to get 2nd. The points are being shared other than for Cardiff who have gone.

- it might be harsh but chasing Lincoln doesn’t seem too intimidating. I still think they’ll have a blip and come back to the pack, it’s rare that 2 teams are gone half way through the season and stay there.

- if they do then we’re not far off the chasing pack (Bradford and Stockport), neither of whom seem particularly strong

- the weighting of difficulty in the second half of the season, with all the hard games literally in the last 6, should mean that we catch up points and will be in a good position come April for the run in, whilst the others have played tough games up to that point. Hopefully that will mean we’re confident and therefore able to take more points than expected in the last 6 (when others will have easier games on paper). No game is easy at that point in the season so actually you are better having your tough ones then.

Ever the optimist - fuck it, we’re going up.

If all other things are equal I'd say the best time to play the top teams is the last month of the season.  Other factors come into play - the pressure of getting over the line whether its top 2 or play offs, the race already run eg Cardiff will effectively be up with a few games left, teams sure to be in the play offs but unable to catch top 2.  So Luton on last day is as likely to be a dead rubber as a 6 pointer and the game before at Bradford could be a game where one or both teams are avoiding injuries before the play offs.  Huddersfield could have given up the ghost when we play them.  Cardiff already promoted.  That's 12 points from our last 4 sorted 😀 

2 hours ago, gonzo said:

Cardiff v Stockport and Huddersfield v Bradford on Sat.

 

Tasty.

New manager for Hudds so a home win

20 minutes ago, Johnnyrotten said:

If all other things are equal I'd say the best time to play the top teams is the last month of the season.  Other factors come into play - the pressure of getting over the line whether its top 2 or play offs, the race already run eg Cardiff will effectively be up with a few games left, teams sure to be in the play offs but unable to catch top 2.  So Luton on last day is as likely to be a dead rubber as a 6 pointer and the game before at Bradford could be a game where one or both teams are avoiding injuries before the play offs.  Huddersfield could have given up the ghost when we play them.  Cardiff already promoted.  That's 12 points from our last 4 sorted 😀 

I tend to agree. Those games at the end of the season become high pressure whoever you're playing, so have fallen as well as possible really.

We just have to make hay in this next 13 game streak against the lesser teams. 6 points from these 2 home games would be the ideal start, and should be doable.