exiledwhite2 Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 I agree entirely that you don't come 7th by sheer luck!! It's a marvellous achievement and one we and the club can be proud of and one that - for the all bad second half of the season - they clearly deserved. You're absolutely spot on that you get the league position you deserve. BUT that has nothing to do with concept of whether you get into UEFA by luck or not! You earn your 7th place in the league but then you need luck on your side to mean that that gets you into Europe.Looking back over the past 10 PL seasons you can use the current qualification routine to see who would have got into UEFA each year (the criteria have changed over the years and of course there used to be the Cup Winners cup, so this is based solely on applying current criteria to past tables). Obviously, by definition everyone who finished 5th each of those 10 years would have qualified under current criteria. In 7 years out of the 10 those that finished 6th would have qualified. So we can reasonably say that if you manage to finish 6th you could "expect" a UEFA place and could consider yourself unlucky if you didn't get one. But in only 3 of the 10 years would the 7th place team have qualified - one being last year of course. So - albeit a gross simplification and generalisation - those figures indicate that if you finish 7th you've a 30% chance of qualifying for the UEFA. Now in that case, how is qualifying anything other than lucky? To call it lucky is not demeaning to the 7th place finish; and it's certainly not demeaning to the UEFA experience (as someone who did 'em all I can attest to). But in the very end if you finish 7th you need luck on your side to get into the UEFA. That's my point. Fair enough. I don't agree, but I see where you are coming from. But you're picking up on something and taking it out of context anyway. Somebody said we qualified by 'sheer luck and the f?ck ups of teams around us', I disagreed with that. We got the required points. They didn't. Your statement I can understand a bit more, although I tend to agree with Zico - it means nothing. We qualified and Blackburn missing a chance in their semi and Portsmouth having a goal disallowed are incidental. That's football. Everyone knew the rules at the start and we qualified, via the real test, the league. I just can't put it down to luck in any way shape or form, personally.
Casino Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 i can't believe a thread about positives got into 5 pages
Horwich Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 (edited) Who pulls the strings at the Reebok? Edited August 20, 2007 by Horwich
SatanGreavsie Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 I just can't put it down to luck in any way shape or form, personally. But if - as I pointed out - you have, broadly speaking, a 30% chance of qualifying for UEFA from 7th as it requires two 5th or higher teams in the FA Cup final and a League Cup final winner from the top 5, then how can it not be luck? I don't mean luck as in somehow we cheated or didn't merit it - but "luck" in a mathematical sense. Do you really stand by the phrase "I just can't put it down to luck in any way shape or form"? That is just wrong - it is demonstrably, mathematically wrong. God help you if you're a betting man....
Andybwfc Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 Fuuck me! Let's start a thread 'Lets look at the negatives'! That will be a 30 pager!
HomerJay Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 i'll start, negatives in order... 1. BWFC Supporters
SatanGreavsie Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 We got the required points. They didn't. OK, I'll tell thee what. If at the end of this coming season the 7th placed PL team qualifies for UEFA by the same route as us (ie through both FA Cup finalists coming from top 5 teams as well as the League Cup winners) then I'll donate ?100 to the WW charity end of season do. As long as you agree to do likewise if they don't qualify.
exiledwhite2 Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 (edited) But if - as I pointed out - you have, broadly speaking, a 30% chance of qualifying for UEFA from 7th as it requires two 5th or higher teams in the FA Cup final and a League Cup final winner from the top 5, then how can it not be luck? I don't mean luck as in somehow we cheated or didn't merit it - but "luck" in a mathematical sense. Do you really stand by the phrase "I just can't put it down to luck in any way shape or form"? That is just wrong - it is demonstrably, mathematically wrong. God help you if you're a betting man.... Haha god help me indeed. Luckily I figured out betting wasn't my strong suit a while back... I've already got that Trotter58 idiot on my case, I don't want to spilt hairs with you. I understand your point completely. The probability of finishing 7th and getting in is lower than that of missing out. Perfectly understood. All I can say is the original debate was not about the probabilities of getting in via 7th. The statement was 'we only qualified by sheer luck and the f?ckups of teams around us'. I don't want to go off on tangents about the mathematical probabilities, I feel that you get what you deserve, and we did. And that's wishy washy bollocks but I'm sticking to it Edited August 20, 2007 by exiledwhite2
exiledwhite2 Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 OK, I'll tell thee what. If at the end of this coming season the 7th placed PL team qualifies for UEFA by the same route as us (ie through both FA Cup finalists coming from top 5 teams as well as the League Cup winners) then I'll donate ?100 to the WW charity end of season do. As long as you agree to do likewise if they don't qualify. I just said I wasn't a betting man You bast?rd... Suppose I won't have any Euro trips to fund next year will I?
SatanGreavsie Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 I just said I wasn't a betting man You bast?rd... Suppose I won't have any Euro trips to fund next year will I? so is that a yes then?
jayjayoghani Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 I'll throw this one in. If Blackburn had got in the FA Cup final, we'd have qualified for the Intertoto anyway. So in a way we were unlucky as our Euro trips could have started a month ago.
exiledwhite2 Posted August 20, 2007 Posted August 20, 2007 so is that a yes then? Aye I don't know how I got myself into this though
SatanGreavsie Posted August 21, 2007 Posted August 21, 2007 Aye I don't know how I got myself into this though Good man hmmm...I'll start saving just in case
Ghana White Posted August 22, 2007 Posted August 22, 2007 Another positive...Even if we go down Blackpool away will be class
pete harry Posted August 23, 2007 Posted August 23, 2007 Yet another positive. At least we don't have Steve McLaren as our manager.
trotter58 Posted August 23, 2007 Posted August 23, 2007 All I can say is the original debate was not about the probabilities of getting in via 7th. The statement was 'we only qualified by sheer luck and the f?ckups of teams around us'. You're not STILL going on about that are you, you sad c?nt? Get a f?cking life.
exiledwhite2 Posted August 23, 2007 Posted August 23, 2007 You're not STILL going on about that are you, you sad c?nt? Get a f?cking life. That's 3 days ago you dribbling, silly little idiot. I hope your stay round here is a short one cos you are the most boring c?nt to post on here in a long, long time.
trotter58 Posted August 23, 2007 Posted August 23, 2007 you are the most boring c?nt to post on here in a long, long time. I think you claimed that title some time ago. How about another 10 page thread on how luck doesn't play a part in football? Better still why not relate it to your job just for added drama? Yawn.
HomerJay Posted August 23, 2007 Posted August 23, 2007 I think you claimed that title some time ago. How about another 10 page thread on how luck doesn't play a part in football? Better still why not relate it to your job just for added drama? Yawn. i must admit, it was the 'yawn' at the end that won the argument.
stevieb Posted August 23, 2007 Posted August 23, 2007 so anyway................ Whats everyone had for tea? I had steak
Zozzy Posted August 24, 2007 Posted August 24, 2007 Yes but how many of them are good enough/fit enough? Alonso looked poor all game, and Braten oh dear!!! What are you talking about Samhater? Braaten is one of the big positives. He is strong and fast and has a good touch. He might not be the new John McGinlay but he will be right up there as a fan's favourite.
jimmyjoojar Posted August 24, 2007 Posted August 24, 2007 You're not STILL going on about that are you, you sad c?nt? Get a f?cking life. Do you think its some sort of coincidence that most people think you talk utter shite!!! Anyway back to positives, I'm pretty keen to see what Willy can do. For the first time in a long time the club have a genuine pacey winger capable of creating chances for the forwards. I doubt Willy will start but hopefully he can feature at some point and get a chance to show the fans what he can do.
Guest as Posted August 24, 2007 Posted August 24, 2007 That's 3 days ago you dribbling, silly little idiot. I hope your stay round here is a short one cos you are the most boring c?nt to post on here in a long, long time. First laugh of the day for me ::::::::::
Burndens Bogs Posted August 26, 2007 Author Posted August 26, 2007 S'pose LSL could be forgiven for saying "I told you so" Good luck to him
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