Politics

[Winchester White]

16 minutes ago, BobyBrno said:

Yes. The difference this time is that a party could have a huge majority and be the most least popular by votes ever. 

That happened with Boris surely?

[BobyBrno]

For those confused about my ‘drivel’ 

This is the latest poll in a clearer form. If the trend continues, Labours vote will be less than they had in 2019 and still have a big majority in parliament. 
I find it interesting. Others may not. 
Of course we can just ignore the polls and wait and see what happens on 4th July.

[BobyBrno]

8 minutes ago, Cheese said:

Prove it.

Would a postal vote verified, sealed and posted by any member of this forum be proof? It’s for the kids.

[bolty58]

10 hours ago, Sweep said:

A lot of those who supported it, will start to distance themselves from it and claim they're all for the Reform Party now (see Bolty...)

No claim about it. 100% behind Farage. Check back to when I first mentioned voting Reform. Many moons ago.

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

14 minutes ago, BobyBrno said:

For those confused about my ‘drivel’ 

This is the latest poll in a clearer form. If the trend continues, Labours vote will be less than they had in 2019 and still have a big majority in parliament. 
I find it interesting. Others may not. 
Of course we can just ignore the polls and wait and see what happens on 4th July.

Why did their vote share drop so drastically at the end of May/start of June?

I think the most interesting thing about that graph is Reform polling a higher percentage of the vote than the Tories

[BobyBrno]

10 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Why did their vote share drop so drastically at the end of May/start of June?

I think the most interesting thing about that graph is Reform polling a higher percentage of the vote than the Tories

That’s a good question. My initial thoughts are that for years they have been telling us how bad the Tories are and not how good they are. Now they have to tell us how good they are, no one believes them. Well I don’t 😊

Just my opinion.

Edited June 14, 2024 by BobyBrno

[Ani]

10 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Why did their vote share drop so drastically at the end of May/start of June?

I think the most interesting thing about that graph is Reform polling a higher percentage of the vote than the Tories

Think the You Gov poll yesterday was out of line with other polls, it might be right and all the others wrong. Surprised this not more publicised as Farage is arguing for a head to head debate on the back of the one poll. He really is miles ahead of the others in terms of managing the media. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726.amp

There has been some comments on polling in the election that Reform are listed under 'other' in some polls so might be under represented. I have no idea if this is true or valid.

I found out today that when people are researching votes on election day they do not simply ask people , instead they basically submit another vote on the way out off the actual voting station. I found that surprisingly interesting. 😂🤓🧐

 

[Not in Crawley]

It's such a misunderstanding of the polls.

Example that Mounts thought the bigger the sample after a certain size made it more robust.

The lovely thing about data is that it's an art as well as a science. So where you the results from depends on the base.

Companies do things in different ways but it's all based on maths, not figure in the air. But like science (and that's why data science is a thing) the methodology changes to what you are trying to extrapolate.

But because it's politics - one data set becomes a headline if it throws up something interesting- like a niche party are ahead against a big party - even when the data still tracks differently.

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

20 minutes ago, Ani said:

Surprised this not more publicised as Farage is arguing for a head to head debate on the back of the one poll. He really is miles ahead of the others in terms of managing the media. 

Their social media strategy in particular is insanely effective 

[Not in Crawley]

15 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Their social media strategy in particular is insanely effective 

Depending on your targeting. 

They haven't got huge amounts of cash - if you are being served ads, you are in the prospective audience. Click on, you then get into the pool for re-targeting. If not, you'll get reserved the ad.

It baffles me why people don't understand how digital ads work, given how much time people spend online.

Folk should educate themselves a bit.

[Nowack]

Farage does give them a lot of free media on the socials though. 

[mickbrown]

2 hours ago, bolty58 said:

No claim about it. 100% behind Farage. Check back to when I first mentioned voting Reform. Many moons ago.

You can’t vote. You dick

[bolty58]

5 hours ago, Casino said:

The majority didnt vote for brexit, either

Let it go son. Even your gobby ginger has said she won't take you back in.

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

7 hours ago, Not in Crawley said:

Depending on your targeting. 

They haven't got huge amounts of cash - if you are being served ads, you are in the prospective audience. Click on, you then get into the pool for re-targeting. If not, you'll get reserved the ad.

It baffles me why people don't understand how digital ads work, given how much time people spend online.

Folk should educate themselves a bit.

[Not in Crawley]

22 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Go on then, I'm all ears (at least for a bit)

[Ani]

9 hours ago, Not in Crawley said:

Depending on your targeting. 

They haven't got huge amounts of cash - if you are being served ads, you are in the prospective audience. Click on, you then get into the pool for re-targeting. If not, you'll get reserved the ad.

It baffles me why people don't understand how digital ads work, given how much time people spend online.

Folk should educate themselves a bit.

Before you start knocking on doors you might want to tone down the condescending messages 😂😂

I am sure Reform with their wealthy backers have pretty deep pockets especially with GB News sticking out plenty to tear into Starmer and Rishi.

[bolty58]

59 minutes ago, Ani said:

Before you start knocking on doors you might want to tone down the condescending messages 😂😂

I am sure Reform with their wealthy backers have pretty deep pockets especially with GB News sticking out plenty to tear into Starmer and Rishi.

Are you seeing something the rest of us have missed? 

[bolty58]

Some on here (Sweep and his mates) have been having a pop at calls for proportional representation in recent times. I get it. When the hapless Greens, Liberal Undemocrats, No Scotland No National Party etc get next to fuck all, who really cares? No one is going to appeal for more representation for those hapless twats.

In the case of Reform, it's different. Everyone knows the way politics are moving throughout Europe and the opportunity should exist for the groundswell in the UK to be appropriately recognised in the Commons. Support will only continue to grow in line with further additions to the population from outside hobbling opportunities in career, health care, housing etc. for working class Brits.

The reds and blues would of course vote against PR when they know full well that the worst they can finish is second. Referendum on PR, that's what is needed. Risks letting in more sinister Greens and lame duck Lib Undems but, as Sweep and many other EU lickspittles on here are always telling us, European ways are better aren't they? As only the UK and Belarus use FPTP and the rest of Europe (including the bumbling bureaucracy members) use PR, surely the Europhiles on here will be all for it?

[Casino]

Just now, bolty58 said:

 

In the case of Reform, it's different. 

Oh, its that alright

Do they have PR in your country?

Come on, cock on the block, how many votes are Reform going to get

Of all the parties, I'd say they are most likely to get their supporters to vote, its the way of things with irrelevant, protest parties, so how many millions?

Not %s, not seats, how many million votes?

(Lets assume most have a dry pair of undies to stick on to go to the booth)

[Not in Crawley]

1 hour ago, Ani said:

Before you start knocking on doors you might want to tone down the condescending messages 😂😂

I am sure Reform with their wealthy backers have pretty deep pockets especially with GB News sticking out plenty to tear into Starmer and Rishi.

Hardly condescending to explain something that happens everyday to people online and most people haven't a clue why or how. Folk should know as it can be insidious. I'd say it was being helpful.

Yes, they have deep pockets but in comparison to the main parties it's not close to what they are spending on digital advertising. Certainly Labour have spent the most so far from what Ive read https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/labour-party-spends-three-times-online-ads-conservatives/1874588

[Cheese]

12 hours ago, BobyBrno said:

Would a postal vote verified, sealed and posted by any member of this forum be proof?

No.

[BobyBrno]

10 minutes ago, Cheese said:

No.

Didn’t think so. Never mind.

[Ani]

50 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said:

Hardly condescending to explain something that happens everyday to people online and most people haven't a clue why or how. Folk should know as it can be insidious. I'd say it was being helpful.

Yes, they have deep pockets but in comparison to the main parties it's not close to what they are spending on digital advertising. Certainly Labour have spent the most so far from what Ive read https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/labour-party-spends-three-times-online-ads-conservatives/1874588

First Para - Irony ? 
Second Para - Ignoring the point that the social media activity I was referring to was not the parties. So GB News for example. 
 

Hope your door knocking goes well, I just walked the dog round here as the park is waterlogged, not a single poster or any advertising for any parties. Ours is a new seat and expected to be Labour but Libs usually strong so surprised how low key it all is.

[mickbrown]

2 hours ago, bolty58 said:

Some on here (Sweep and his mates) have been having a pop at calls for proportional representation in recent times. I get it. When the hapless Greens, Liberal Undemocrats, No Scotland No National Party etc get next to fuck all, who really cares? No one is going to appeal for more representation for those hapless twats.

In the case of Reform, it's different. Everyone knows the way politics are moving throughout Europe and the opportunity should exist for the groundswell in the UK to be appropriately recognised in the Commons. Support will only continue to grow in line with further additions to the population from outside hobbling opportunities in career, health care, housing etc. for working class Brits.

The reds and blues would of course vote against PR when they know full well that the worst they can finish is second. Referendum on PR, that's what is needed. Risks letting in more sinister Greens and lame duck Lib Undems but, as Sweep and many other EU lickspittles on here are always telling us, European ways are better aren't they? As only the UK and Belarus use FPTP and the rest of Europe (including the bumbling bureaucracy members) use PR, surely the Europhiles on here will be all for it?

We had a referendum on PR. It lost 

If you want another one, can we have another Brexit one too?

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

1 hour ago, mickbrown said:

We had a referendum on PR. It lost 

If you want another one, can we have another Brexit one too?

To be fair, the referendum was on AV