39 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I enjoyed listening to a Swedish scientist

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

A bullet point summary;

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

 

Sweden is very much business as usual 

 

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

A bullet point summary;

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

 

Traf said we’d get nowhere near Italy.

 

Edited April 19, 20206 yr by Spider

3 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

Sweden is very much business as usual 

 

Haven't they just started to see a ramp in infections and deaths in the past few days? Having said that, if they still end up the same as everybody else, with a very minor lockdown, and with their economy still in tact, they'll have been proved to have gone about it the right way.

3 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Haven't they just started to see a ramp in infections and deaths in the past few days? Having said that, if they still end up the same as everybody else, with a very minor lockdown, and with their economy still in tact, they'll have been proved to have gone about it the right way.

Indeed

Just a little marker in the thread here that 15,000 British people are dead because of this with a likely 4,000 more from carehomes.

83 of them NHS staff.

 

11 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Haven't they just started to see a ramp in infections and deaths in the past few days? Having said that, if they still end up the same as everybody else, with a very minor lockdown, and with their economy still in tact, they'll have been proved to have gone about it the right way.

True 

bars restaurants flowing even some handshaking going on 

let’s see how it pans out 

It's definitely influenced by the messed up hangover I've got but yes its Sunday morning and I've had a bit of a sob at Taylor Swift. I need to watch a war film or something, get me back on track 

Can see both sides of the debate...If we had followed Sweden we would now have had a lot more deaths but  we would have had a lot more who would now be immune from the virus. Our economy would be stronger people, are going to be shocked at how bad its going to get. The NHS would not have coped with the numbers and that is the main reason the government changed strategy...He is right in what he says in that when we loosen the lock down more will die....It is just managing the numbers our NHS can take nothing more.

There’s no proof catching the virus makes you immune yet.

16 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

It's definitely influenced by the messed up hangover I've got but yes its Sunday morning and I've had a bit of a sob at Taylor Swift. I need to watch a war film or something, get me back on track 

What the fuck were you drinking!

That's a really interesting read. This is the most damning paragraph for me.....

'There were new findings that day with Chinese scientists warning that the virus had an unusually high infectivity rate of up to 3.0, which meant each person with the virus would typically infect up to three more people.'

That was January 22nd when they convened SAGE. Should have been battle stations from that point on for me.

6 minutes ago, deane koontz said:

What the fuck were you drinking!

8% stout. Got some heinous shites in the pipes today.

25 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

I've had a bit of a sob at Taylor Swift. 

 

I think you may have caught coronavirus. Pretty sure this is a symptom.

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

It's definitely influenced by the messed up hangover I've got but yes its Sunday morning and I've had a bit of a sob at Taylor Swift. I need to watch a war film or something, get me back on track 

Don't worry. I cry when I have to watch Taylor Swift as well

3 minutes ago, kent_white said:

Don't worry. I cry when I have to watch Taylor Swift as well

That sounds like it's a regular occurrence for you! I'm alright now, gathered my faculties. Although I did have a really vivid dream that Boris Johnson had resigned overnight and spent the first 20 or so minutes of being awake today just assuming it was true.

Must point out Sweden not full of fat fucks who never exercise, eat shit and drink to excess every day. 

14 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

I am blaming nobody, as stated before this CV is unprecedented and i think the Chinese have probably fucked us over.

I'm blaming nobody. Except the Chinese! 

😁

Just now, kent_white said:

I'm blaming nobody. Except the Chinese! 

😁

Quite

1 hour ago, Spider said:

Just a little marker in the thread here that 15,000 British people are dead because of this with a likely 4,000 more from carehomes.

83 of them NHS staff.

 

Aye. That point seems to have been missed amongst all the talk of Volvo and ABBA. 

47 minutes ago, kent_white said:

That's a really interesting read. This is the most damning paragraph for me.....

'There were new findings that day with Chinese scientists warning that the virus had an unusually high infectivity rate of up to 3.0, which meant each person with the virus would typically infect up to three more people.'

That was January 22nd when they convened SAGE. Should have been battle stations from that point on for me.

Boris, ‘no can do, I’m off to Chequers for the weekend with the latest posh horsey bit.’

Captain Tom Moore has raised 25 million thus far. What a man!

23 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Aye you don't see many chubby Swedes, cultural thing.

Thomas Brolin being a notable exception.

 

10 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Aye. That point seems to have been missed amongst all the talk of Volvo and ABBA. 

They don't have a bad life the Swedes, eat a bowl of Swede, jump in the Volvo. Whack on a bit of ABBA and zip down to IKEA. 

Edited April 19, 20206 yr by RoadRunnerFan

Ikea Is just shite