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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Crypto Currency


birch-chorley

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This post is for @Breightmet Boy and anyone else who's interested in crypto

Screenshot-2021-11-06-at-12-51-15.png

This first image is the macro picture for Bitcoin. At a glance, you can see a big parabolic run from late 2020 to early 2021. Then a big 50% correction into the Summer, followed by the latest rally.

I last posted a trade setup at 33,000 pounds, we now sit at 45,000 pounds. Technical analysis isn't a crystal ball but more a way of analysing the health of the market and giving you higher or lower probabilities of what direction the next move might be in.

Bitcoin is the Crypto market leader, if it's in a positive place, generally all other cryptos will do well. i.e. Ethereum, Polkadot, even the meme coins like Doge and Shiba Inu. 

 

image.thumb.png.c0926ab8e8e96190e81e824c5c604213.png

This next picture is the same image but starting at the summer low and with more resolution on the smaller time-frame. You can see we are doing exactly what you want to see for a market that you want to increase. Making higher highs and higher lows. However, you'll also see the last 2 or 3 weeks have been sideways. Usually when this happens, money starts flowing into alt coins, which is why random coins have been pumping 100% or more over the last couple of weeks.

Volatility leads to consolidation and vice versa, which is why bitcoin seems quite neutral right now. This consolidation won't last for too long however, it's just about which way it breaks.

You can see lines on the chart on the right, this is a fibonacci retracement from the lows of December 2018, to the swing high in May 2021 and down to the bottom of the summer crash. It essentially gives you levels of interest using mathematics. We're rangebound between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels (42k to 47k). We're looking for a clean break of one of these levels for confirmation of the next direction. If we break below 42,000 then we might go lower to 36000-40,000. If we break above it, it will be price-discovery mode and there are no solid targets but I think about 60,000 would be a good break out level.

If I was looking to get into the market right now as a new participant, I'd proceed with caution as we're due some volatility to the upside or downside and we don't know which yet. Bitcoin is the "safest" place to be with your money, Ethereum is the next safest, and all the rest are more risky.

Solana, Polkadot and Chainlink have good projects worth researching. But if bitcoin drops 20%, expect alts to drop even harder.

If I see any good set-ups in the next few weeks then I'll post here, either bitcoin or other coins but if you're looking to get in right now, then maybe just average in. For example, buy in £100 per week or something, whatever you're comfortable with. Worst thing to do is FOMO into a coin because you see it pumping.

Best exchange in the UK for beginners is Coinbase Pro. Normal coinbase has high fees (if you buy in £100 of bitcoin, you might have to pay £3, instead of like 10p on Coinbase pro) - so use coinbase pro.

"Pro" doesn't mean anything really, you don't have to pay extra to use it, it's just a slightly more complicated interface.

 

Sorry it's not just a simple post like "buy in at this price and you'll double your money". Just be cautious with it.

 

Summary:

If you're looking to get into crypto right now, it's a little bit of a neutral market that could go either way in the short term. Long term we'll probably go much higher, but right now it is probably best to buy in gradually into Bitcoin and Ethereum and other solid projects, using coinbase pro.

2022 will probably be the year of big gains, and then a sharp correction back into the abyss. But we shall see.

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Just as another general point. I think having a flexible plan and mindset in a volatile asset like crypto is really important. People want to just buy in and see number go up.

For example, if you’d bought in a big lump sum into a crypto project and then it went down 30% in value, that’s going to scare you and you’ll probably want to sell it before you lose anymore.

fast forward 2 months, it might have gone up 200%. That’s the nature of the asset class. It’s easy to say “if the price goes to this, I’ll have MADE this much money”, but people rarely say “if the price goes to this, I’ll have LOST this much money.”

Assess your risk tolerance, how much money are you willing to lose?

Coinbase pro is good that you can set STOP LOSSES.

So I can buy Bitcoin at 45,000 pounds, then set my stop loss to trigger if the price goes below 40,000 pounds. To limit my losses.

The trouble a lot of people have with it though is getting stopped out. Then the price going back up. Say the price dips to 38,000 then goes up to 55,000. You’ll be a bit annoyed.

A good solution to this is to HALVE your investment and double your stop loss.

So if I was buying in 1,000 pounds and setting my stop loss to 12% below my entry price.

Instead I’d buy in 500 pounds and set my stop loss to 24% below my entry price. You’re giving yourself the same risk tolerance then but with less chance of getting stopped out.

There’s too many things to consider for a couple of forum posts because it depends so much on your targets, goals, how much you’re willing to lose etc.

If you just want to buy into something a leave it for 5 years then you’re in a totally different space from someone who wants to buy in now, sell for profit in a couple months and then reinvest.

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On 06/11/2021 at 13:20, Mantra said:

This post is for @Breightmet Boy and anyone else who's interested in crypto

Screenshot-2021-11-06-at-12-51-15.png

This first image is the macro picture for Bitcoin. At a glance, you can see a big parabolic run from late 2020 to early 2021. Then a big 50% correction into the Summer, followed by the latest rally.

I last posted a trade setup at 33,000 pounds, we now sit at 45,000 pounds. Technical analysis isn't a crystal ball but more a way of analysing the health of the market and giving you higher or lower probabilities of what direction the next move might be in.

Bitcoin is the Crypto market leader, if it's in a positive place, generally all other cryptos will do well. i.e. Ethereum, Polkadot, even the meme coins like Doge and Shiba Inu. 

 

image.thumb.png.c0926ab8e8e96190e81e824c5c604213.png

This next picture is the same image but starting at the summer low and with more resolution on the smaller time-frame. You can see we are doing exactly what you want to see for a market that you want to increase. Making higher highs and higher lows. However, you'll also see the last 2 or 3 weeks have been sideways. Usually when this happens, money starts flowing into alt coins, which is why random coins have been pumping 100% or more over the last couple of weeks.

Volatility leads to consolidation and vice versa, which is why bitcoin seems quite neutral right now. This consolidation won't last for too long however, it's just about which way it breaks.

You can see lines on the chart on the right, this is a fibonacci retracement from the lows of December 2018, to the swing high in May 2021 and down to the bottom of the summer crash. It essentially gives you levels of interest using mathematics. We're rangebound between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels (42k to 47k). We're looking for a clean break of one of these levels for confirmation of the next direction. If we break below 42,000 then we might go lower to 36000-40,000. If we break above it, it will be price-discovery mode and there are no solid targets but I think about 60,000 would be a good break out level.

If I was looking to get into the market right now as a new participant, I'd proceed with caution as we're due some volatility to the upside or downside and we don't know which yet. Bitcoin is the "safest" place to be with your money, Ethereum is the next safest, and all the rest are more risky.

Solana, Polkadot and Chainlink have good projects worth researching. But if bitcoin drops 20%, expect alts to drop even harder.

If I see any good set-ups in the next few weeks then I'll post here, either bitcoin or other coins but if you're looking to get in right now, then maybe just average in. For example, buy in £100 per week or something, whatever you're comfortable with. Worst thing to do is FOMO into a coin because you see it pumping.

Best exchange in the UK for beginners is Coinbase Pro. Normal coinbase has high fees (if you buy in £100 of bitcoin, you might have to pay £3, instead of like 10p on Coinbase pro) - so use coinbase pro.

"Pro" doesn't mean anything really, you don't have to pay extra to use it, it's just a slightly more complicated interface.

 

Sorry it's not just a simple post like "buy in at this price and you'll double your money". Just be cautious with it.

 

Summary:

If you're looking to get into crypto right now, it's a little bit of a neutral market that could go either way in the short term. Long term we'll probably go much higher, but right now it is probably best to buy in gradually into Bitcoin and Ethereum and other solid projects, using coinbase pro.

2022 will probably be the year of big gains, and then a sharp correction back into the abyss. But we shall see.

I’ve just read that, but I’m going to read it another two or three times, thank you Mantra.  Just another thing, surely the tax man will want a cut?   

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1 hour ago, Breightmet Boy said:

I’ve just read that, but I’m going to read it another two or three times, thank you Mantra.  Just another thing, surely the tax man will want a cut?   

CryptoTrader.tax will help you work out your taxes. But I'd keep a record of your transactions.

Edited by Mantra
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31 minutes ago, Breightmet Boy said:

I’ve just read that, but I’m going to read it another two or three times, thank you Mantra.  Just another thing, surely the tax man will want a cut?   

Sorry it probably comes off quite complex if you’ve not analysed charts before but it’s relatively simple when you get the hang of it.

If you want to ask questions about anything I’ve said go for it either on here or DM me.

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Bitcoin just broke through 47000 pounds, will wait and see 24 hours to see if it holds the line. If so, then we may be ready for another leg up.

Sometimes there's these moves and then suddenly they flip the other way when people get too greedy. Need to wait for a bit more confirmation, but this is the volatility we're waiting for.

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Screenshot-2021-11-08-at-11-59-33.pngBitcoin broken through the 0.618 level overnight. Good time to buy in with the momentum now possibly but still have to be mindful of fakeouts. We could easily be range-bound for the next month or two between £47k and £42k, the latter seems to be acting as good support so if you can get an entry there, then that might be your best option.

See how the rest of this week goes. If you buy in maybe set your stop loss relatively tight. If we continue then the next area of interest £55k.

Ethereum also really bullish structure but coming up to a possible resistance level soon £3600, which is roughly $5,000, so a big psychological level too.

Screenshot-2021-11-08-at-12-01-19.png

As Royal White says, Crypto can be unpredictable. If you've got some money you don't mind gambling with then sure, chuck it in and come back in a few years and see, but what I'm hoping to do and many others is to buy at a good entry price. Sell when the market is euphoric and re-enter when there's a better opportunity further down the line.

 

A good "mantra" to stick by (pardon the pun), is "the trend is your friend, until it ends." At the moment we're making a clear up trend with higher highs and higher lows; so no reason to panic even if we did have a 20% dip, which is normal in crypto. If we start breaking market structure, then it's time to sell.

Edited by Mantra
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3 hours ago, Mantra said:

New all time highs for BTC and ETH.

Give it a couple of months and everyone will be talking about this and FOMOing in.

@stevieb Target for this cycle is 7-12 trillion dollars

I’ve closed a couple of my LTC and ETC positions and looking to buy back in in the dip. Put some more into XRP as well, not sure why as it’s probably the worst performer. I do have a lot of faith in it and expect it to go to around 4/5 dollars after this Sec case. 

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3 hours ago, royal white said:

I’ve closed a couple of my LTC and ETC positions and looking to buy back in in the dip. Put some more into XRP as well, not sure why as it’s probably the worst performer. I do have a lot of faith in it and expect it to go to around 4/5 dollars after this Sec case. 

You missed a zero. 

4 fucking years and 4 to 5 dollars is all we get.... 🤣 

10 to 13...blockchain backer. 

 

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5 hours ago, stevieb said:

You missed a zero. 

4 fucking years and 4 to 5 dollars is all we get.... 🤣 

10 to 13...blockchain backer. 

 

Don’t 😂😂 I’ve become emotionally attached to it, I won’t hear a bad word said about XRP. 
 

The fucking useless piece of shit!

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