Politics

[Farrelli]

21 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

A view from the other side.

Exporters based in the Czech Republic could be heavily impacted by a no-deal Brexit, according to the Minister for Industry and Trade Karel Havlíček.

Speaking to Novinky, Havlíček warned of the damage the failure of the EU and the UK to get a trade deal could have on Czech companies, with the UK the fifth largest market for Czech exporters
 

Notice the Czech Industry Minister says the EU and the U.K. 

 

 

 

Has anyone said this is not a really bad outcome for the EU and the UK ? It was pointed out at the time by David Cameron and many others that negotiating a deal would be very difficult (#project fear).  Liam Fox said it would be the easiest deal in human history.  

[Spider]

4 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Not ordering earlier than normal given no deal was agreed was worser idea. 

How many times

We tried to place 6 months worth of orders.

They wouldn’t let us because of demand and production limits.

Theres no way you’re a buyer. Unless it’s for ice cream or summert

[Farrelli]

4 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Liam Fox said it SHOULD (Trade Deal) be the easiest deal if politics doesn't get in the way.

On January 1st 2021 somebody needs to remove your shoelaces and belt, you are a Brexit Drama Queen.

Just responding to the post suggesting there will be pain in the EU.  We know this already but we did the leaving and have been lied to consistently by this government about the negotiations. Why are people surprised we have no deal arranged with these people in charge (#oven ready).  I'm quite calm about it all but these are the facts.

[birch-chorley]

1 hour ago, bolty58 said:

No surprise EU sycophants would react so to the John Redwood commentary.

There will be a deal. We all know it. Whether this will be in the best interests of the UK will only become clear with the passing of time. I believe that there is a good chance that Mr. Redwood will be proved right.

I’m sure that we will get some sort of deal at some point, even if we have a period of No Deal first 

However, a reasonable deal will need to be based on us agreeing to some sort of level playing field on rules and regulations. If we want to undercut the EU to gain a competitive advantage then we should expect the EU to impose restrictions that protect their members and market. If we were still in the EU and another member was leaving we would absolutely want that same protection! Plenty including Redwood, seem to think that the EU should be allowing us to have a comprehensive trade deal, which later allows us to go on and undercut their members. If he honestly believes that then he’s a fruitcake IMO as they have said no A la Carte about 8 million times 

However, if we don’t plan on using BREXIT to under cut the EU then it’s largely irrelevant as we are talking about measures that will never be used. 

The issue is, the only way that we can off set the lost trade that a No Deal will cause is to try and compete with / under cut the EU 

We either stick closer to the EU but without a seat at the table, or go with a full break and try to compete against them, either way the ‘will of the people’ has been honoured 

[Farrelli]

3 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I’m sure that we will get some sort of deal at some point, even if we have a period of No Deal first 

However, a reasonable deal will need to be based on us agreeing to some sort of level playing field on rules and regulations. If we want to undercut the EU to gain a competitive advantage then we should expect the EU to impose restrictions that protect their members and market. If we were still in the EU and another member was leaving we would absolutely want that same protection! Plenty including Redwood, seem to think that the EU should be allowing us to have a comprehensive trade deal, which later allows us to go on and undercut their members. If he honestly believes that then he’s a fruitcake IMO as they have said no A la Carte about 8 million times 

However, if we don’t plan on using BREXIT to under cut the EU then it’s largely irrelevant as we are talking about measures that will never be used. 

The issue is, the only way that we can off set the lost trade that a No Deal will cause is to try and compete with / under cut the EU 

We either stick closer to the EU but without a seat at the table, or go with a full break and try to compete against them, either way the ‘will of the people’ has been honoured 

Stop it with your facts, they don't like it.  When you spell it out like that it really was a monumental fuck up by Cameron to have a referendum on this issue. 

[Farrelli]

Just now, Mr Grey said:

"Weve been lied to", who says, the media.... ?

There are lies on both sides, they are politicians after all, the only difference being that ours are democratically elected.

Easiest trade deal in human history, staying in the single market, 350 million to the NHS, oven ready deal, free movement of Turks coming to the UK, taking back control, etc etc etc. Lap it up.

[Spider]

May I provide a simple explanation?

I get parts from the Czech Republic. They are not available in the UK and won't be for 3 years even if someone decided to start putting a factory together tomorrow. It doesn't work like that.

So, I must buy from the EU. China and America works out no cheaper.

I am likely to pay more unless the deal we get is tariff free. 

If I am paying more, I cannot even attempt to sell my finished product to the EU as it will be more expensive.

Ipso Facto, we need a deal and it needs to be at least the same as what we had.

It's simple economics.

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Spider

[miamiwhite]

6 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Easiest trade deal in human history, staying in the single market, 350 million to the NHS, oven ready deal, free movement of Turks coming to the UK, taking back control, etc etc etc. Lap it up.

Immediate deep economic recession, 500k immediate job losses, food shortages, medical shortages, army on the streets etc......lap it up. 

[miamiwhite]

5 minutes ago, Mr Grey said:

Christ almighty you have got it bad 🤪

He'll be writing a Dear John to the EU at this rate.

[Escobarp]

When I’m having a shit day and feeling down. All I need to do is look on here. My life isn’t so bad after all. I could be him. This keeps me going 👍🏼

[birch-chorley]

14 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

Immediate deep economic recession, 500k immediate job losses, food shortages, medical shortages, army on the streets etc......lap it up. 

I think we need to be clear on the ‘project fear’ economic projection 

Whilst the word immediate was used, it was used in the assumption that we would immediately leave the EU. Basically, no fucker knew about article 50 until the shock of the result sent everyone scampering off to find out what’s next. Nobody in their right mind thought we would still be broadly aligned to the EU rules and regulations in 2020, to be fair @Cheesedid and he was roundly ridiculed for it on here (although even his projection was made well AFTER the result, when we all knew about article 50) 

Any road, here is a report on project fear / the economic forecasts from 1 month prior to the referendum...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

Its clear that 2 projections were made, the impact of no deal and the impact of a comprehensive deal. Both are negative, we will see how accurate they were in 2021 when we final get to see the actual impacts of either deal 

Edited December 15, 2020 by birch-chorley

[Mounts Kipper]

45 minutes ago, Spider said:

How many times

We tried to place 6 months worth of orders.

They wouldn’t let us because of demand and production limits.

Theres no way you’re a buyer. Unless it’s for ice cream or summert

If you couldn’t get the stock on time I’d of told my customer that at the outset, not sure why you didn’t factor that into the equation. 

[miamiwhite]

3 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I think we need to be clear on the ‘project fear’ economic projection 

Whilst the word immediate was used, it was used in the assumption that we would immediately leave the EU. Basically, no fucker knew about article 50 until the shock of the result sent everyone scampering off to find out what’s next. Nobody in their right mind thought we would still be broadly aligned to the EU rules and regulations in 2020, to be fair @Cheesedid and he was roundly ridiculed for it on here (although even his projection was made well AFTER the result, when we all knew about article 50) 

Any road, here is a report on project fear / the economic forecasts from 1 month prior to the referendum...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

Its clear that 2 projections were made, the impact of no deal and the impact of a comprehensive deal. Both are negative, we will see how accurate they were in 2021 when we final get to see the actual impacts of either deal 

Immediate was used as in immediately after the vote, not when we actually eft the EU

[Farrelli]

5 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I think we need to be clear on the ‘project fear’ economic projection 

Whilst the word immediate was used, it was used in the assumption that we would immediately leave the EU. Basically, no fucker knew about article 50 until the shock of the result sent everyone scampering off to find out what’s next. Nobody in their right mind thought we would still be broadly aligned to the EU rules and regulations in 2020, to be fair @Cheesedid and he was roundly ridiculed for it on here (although even his projection was made well AFTER the result, when we all knew about article 50) 

Any road, here is a report on project fear / the economic forecasts from 1 month prior to the referendum...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

Its clear that 2 projections were made, the impact of no deal and the impact of a comprehensive deal. Both are negative, we will see how accurate they were in 2021 when we final get to see the actual impacts of either deal 

Correct, they do like to re-write history. 

Next year it will be the remainers fault for not being patriotic enough. 

[Spider]

4 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

If you couldn’t get the stock on time I’d of told my customer that at the outset, not sure why you didn’t factor that into the equation. 

Im beginning to think you have ADHD or something.

Buy me a pint when it’s all over and I’ll patronise you with the finer points of production economics 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Spider

[Winchester White]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9053755/amp/ANDREW-NEIL-No-Deal-nail-coffin-Western-democracy-celebrated-Russia-China.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

[miamiwhite]

12 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Correct, they do like to re-write history. 

Next year it will be the remainers fault for not being patriotic enough. 

Rewrite history ?

The word immediate was used, simple as that. 

We were going to plunge into an immediate recession......did it happen ?

[birch-chorley]

6 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

Immediate was used as in immediately after the vote, not when we actually eft the EU

From that very link that was released before the referendum...

Opening paragraph... Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.

Quotes from the treasury...

The Treasury's "cautious" economic forecasts of the two years following a vote to leave - which assumes a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated - predicts Gross Domestic Productwould grow by 3.6% less than currently predicted.

Highlighted the fact that the forecast was made based on a bi lateral trade deal. The worst case scenario (WTO)....

A second, "severe shock" scenario, also modelled by the Treasury, predicts what would happen if Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership.

In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Now, it’s December 2020 and we’ve still not left. We’ve certainly not been under WTO terms for 2 years! If 2021 brings a year long recession with 800k job losses over 2021 & 2022 then it would have been a correct prediction 

However, given our economy has contracted by -11% this year because of COVID, it’s highly unlikely that we will be in a technical recession in 2021. It will be hard to decouple the Covid job losses from the BREXIT ones also. So in reality the entrenchment on both sides will likely continue for many years more now as it won’t be absolutely clear what’s driving what 

We will be able to compare ourselves vs our competitive set though, if we are considerably behind then it will indicate that BREXIT isn’t working 

 

 

[miamiwhite]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

From that very link that was released before the referendum...

Opening paragraph... Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.

Quotes from the treasury...

The Treasury's "cautious" economic forecasts of the two years following a vote to leave - which assumes a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated - predicts Gross Domestic Productwould grow by 3.6% less than currently predicted.

Highlighted the fact that the forecast was made based on a bi lateral trade deal. The worst case scenario (WTO)....

A second, "severe shock" scenario, also modelled by the Treasury, predicts what would happen if Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership.

In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Now, it’s December 2020 and we’ve still not left. We’ve certainly not been under WTO terms for 2 years! If 2021 brings a year long recession with 800k job losses over 2021 & 2022 then it would have been a correct prediction 

However, given our economy has contracted by -11% this year because of COVID, it’s highly unlikely that we will be in a technical recession in 2021. It will be hard to decouple the Covid job losses from the BREXIT ones also. So in reality the entrenchment on both sides will likely continue for many years more now as it won’t be absolutely clear what’s driving what 

We will be able to compare ourselves vs our competitive set though, if we are considerably behind then it will indicate that BREXIT isn’t working 

 

 

Yes, i can read thank you.

But you said it yourself re Article 50. That is why that forecast should never have been reported without knowing the full details

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

Rewrite history ?

The word immediate was used, simple as that. 

We were going to plunge into an immediate recession......did it happen ?

Immediate after we leave the EU and go onto WTO terms 

That’s starts on 01.01.2021 by the looks of things 

You find a link to the Treasury forecasts from 2016 that indicated their modelling was based on nothing changing in the way of trade relationship for 4 and a half years 

[miamiwhite]

4 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Immediate after we leave the EU and go onto WTO terms 

That’s starts on 01.01.2021 by the looks of things 

You find a link to the Treasury forecasts from 2016 that indicated their modelling was based on nothing changing in the way of trade relationship for 4 and a half years 

You can find the link i have already put on here quoting the deep economic recession immediately after the vote

[birch-chorley]

8 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

You can find the link i have already put on here quoting the deep economic recession immediately after the vote

It’s 1450 pages long this thread, please humour me and post it again so I can have a look 

Everything I can see has the Treasury modelling the impacts of no deal and the impacts of a deal 

I’ve not seen any modelling by the treasury on what it would look like if we held off leaving the EU for 4 and a 1/2 years (certainly from 2016 anyway) 

[miamiwhite]

19 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

From that very link that was released before the referendum...

Opening paragraph... Leaving the European Union would tip the UK into a year-long recession, with up to 820,000 jobs lost within two years, Chancellor George Osborne says.

Quotes from the treasury...

The Treasury's "cautious" economic forecasts of the two years following a vote to leave - which assumes a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated - predicts Gross Domestic Productwould grow by 3.6% less than currently predicted.

Highlighted the fact that the forecast was made based on a bi lateral trade deal. The worst case scenario (WTO)....

A second, "severe shock" scenario, also modelled by the Treasury, predicts what would happen if Britain left the EU's single market and defaulted to World Trade Organization membership.

In this scenario, after two years GDP would be 6% lower, up to 820,000 jobs could go, take-home pay would fall by 4%, house prices would fall by 18% and the pound would be 15% lower.

Now, it’s December 2020 and we’ve still not left. We’ve certainly not been under WTO terms for 2 years! If 2021 brings a year long recession with 800k job losses over 2021 & 2022 then it would have been a correct prediction 

However, given our economy has contracted by -11% this year because of COVID, it’s highly unlikely that we will be in a technical recession in 2021. It will be hard to decouple the Covid job losses from the BREXIT ones also. So in reality the entrenchment on both sides will likely continue for many years more now as it won’t be absolutely clear what’s driving what 

We will be able to compare ourselves vs our competitive set though, if we are considerably behind then it will indicate that BREXIT isn’t working 

 

 

Actually, the above link does include the phrase a leave vote would cause an immediate and profound economic shock.

You left it out didn't you, you little tinker  😉

The rest you didn't leave out refers to when we have actually left the EU. 

[birch-chorley]

11 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

You can find the link i have already put on here quoting the deep economic recession immediately after the vote

Besides, your a hardline Brexiteer, you should be confident that a no deal scenario will see our GDP shoot up next year when we finally go onto WTO terms 

What does it matter to you if the Treasury meant immediately after the vote or immediately after leaving the EU 

Either way you believe they will be wrong surely 

[miamiwhite]

2 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

It’s 1450 pages long this thread, please humour me and post it again so I can have a look 

Everything I can see has the Treasury modelling the impacts of no deal and the impacts of a deal 

I’ve not seen any modelling by the treasury on what it would look like if we held off leaving the EU for 4 and a 1/2 years (certainly from 2016 anyway) 

See above.....