Slow news day? The real deal? End of the world? 
 

They’re saying it probably came from an animal, has Somebody been shagging monkeys again? 

Just now, Not in Crawley said:

Will do, happy to be proved completely wrong (it's a common occurrence) might do it tomorrow

 

I don't think your defiantely wrong - the conclusion I'm drawing is - they don't know whats going to happen because the succes is based on how many vaccines they can get in us, the take up of the vaccines in younger age groups,  and exactly how well they work in middle aged, which I think is why they've given themselves 5 weeks - they're claiming that it takes that long to see a difference, which is bollocks, it takes that long to see the deaths, but they'll get the gist of whats happening after 2-3 weeks.

 

If they can get the vaccine numbers up by an extra million a week, it will make a massive difference long term.  

I hate Boris but the job is impossible as a political decision. Half the people I know think too much too quick, other half complaining about the 5 week delays. 
Following the science is one approach but they do not have responsibility for the economy. 

7 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said:

Will do, happy to be proved completely wrong (it's a common occurrence) might do it tomorrow

 

This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back 

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

To be fair

I think you’ve said for a long time that there’d be no more massive spikes and time said otherwise. You’ve always held the view that restrictions don’t make any difference. Sweden was a go to example for a fair while...

And?

😁

I’m no fuckin scientist!

1 minute ago, mickbrown said:

This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back 

2+2 = >4?

Is it a job requirement of a journalist to have a speech impediment?

6 minutes ago, Ani said:

I hate Boris but the job is impossible as a political decision. Half the people I know think too much too quick, other half complaining about the 5 week delays. 
Following the science is one approach but they do not have responsibility for the economy. 

Aye, if it fucks up, its not on him

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

2+2 = >4?

A massive coincidence?

2 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I didn’t mention numbers of deaths, but Whitty should be listened to on deaths.

When Boris said “more deaths”, I’m not even sure he meant “more”, rather “further”

Deaths are stopping

Well you did say they will plummet 

SAGE don't agree, see below

One thing this last year has taught me is not to get your hopes up 

So I'm not pinning my hopes on having a pint in April

There's still too many unknowns 

Which is why doing anything before anyone considered a priority has had one jab is asking for trouble

 

"Even in the best case scenario SPI-M estimates that ‘at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths would occur under the new scenarios’ in the UK.

The SAGE minutes state: “These scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths (high confidence).

“There remains significant uncertainty about the scale and timing of such a resurgence.

“Key uncertainties include vaccine effectiveness (against infection as well as severe disease), waning immunity, the emergence of novel variants, the extent of any seasonal factors, and behavioural responses to any changes (the modelling assumes no waning of immunity, no novel variants other than B.1.1.7 and no change in adherence following vaccination).”

“Uncertainty is greater further into the future for all modelled scenarios, though this will reduce over time as more data are obtained on vaccine effectiveness.

“Given the level of uncertainty, decisions about changes to restrictions are best made based on epidemiological data rather than based on predetermined dates.”

SAGE said when all adults have been offered at least one dose of the vaccine ‘any further delay is not likely to have a significant impact on the scale of the subsequent resurgence’.

 

 

8 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back 

100% correct schools & unis are exactly where the spread is, have no doubt lockdown 4 coming and just because Boris promised schools would be back March 8th. 

Edited February 22, 20215 yr by Mounts Kipper

5 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Is it a job requirement of a journalist to have a speech impediment?

There is an uproar when a jokey question gets asked in HOC but when a journalist asks is the PM a 'gloomster' that is ok 

3 minutes ago, Zico said:

Well you did say they will plummet 

SAGE don't agree, see below

One thing this last year has taught me is not to get your hopes up 

So I'm not pinning my hopes on having a pint in April

There's still too many unknowns 

Which is why doing anything before anyone considered a priority has had one jab is asking for trouble

 

"Even in the best case scenario SPI-M estimates that ‘at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths would occur under the new scenarios’ in the UK.

The SAGE minutes state: “These scenarios show an epidemic resurgence which results in a substantial number of hospital admissions and deaths (high confidence).

“There remains significant uncertainty about the scale and timing of such a resurgence.

“Key uncertainties include vaccine effectiveness (against infection as well as severe disease), waning immunity, the emergence of novel variants, the extent of any seasonal factors, and behavioural responses to any changes (the modelling assumes no waning of immunity, no novel variants other than B.1.1.7 and no change in adherence following vaccination).”

“Uncertainty is greater further into the future for all modelled scenarios, though this will reduce over time as more data are obtained on vaccine effectiveness.

“Given the level of uncertainty, decisions about changes to restrictions are best made based on epidemiological data rather than based on predetermined dates.”

SAGE said when all adults have been offered at least one dose of the vaccine ‘any further delay is not likely to have a significant impact on the scale of the subsequent resurgence’.

 

 

Ok, mate

I do get it, honest.

9 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

No you clearly said anyone who can’t have the vaccine should sit and wait around. So because I can’t have it I should put my life on hold while everyone else cracks on yes? 

Can't or won't? 

If clinically proven exemptions are a thing, then fine

But people who refuse it because they just don't want it are the lowest priority for me 

They shouldn't be allowed to crack on putting themselves or others at risk

7 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Is it a job requirement of a journalist to have a speech impediment?

A schpeech impediment?

4 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

A massive coincidence?

History will help us

For example, the massive surge in December; what’s your narrative for that?

2 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

History will help us

For example, the massive surge in December; what’s your narrative for that?

Mutant elves?

2 minutes ago, Zico said:

Can't or won't? 

If clinically proven exemptions are a thing, then fine

But people who refuse it because they just don't want it are the lowest priority for me 

They shouldn't be allowed to crack on putting themselves or others at risk

That isn’t what you said. I can have it. But chances are I might well die. I’ve less chance of dying from covid so I will take my chance on that front. 
 

agree anyone who isn’t having it cos they are an anti vaccer or whatever can just fuck off. Pricks 
 

 

8 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

This thing had almost gone in August. Started to climb again in September, when the kids went back 

I know, but with the data that does chime with a lot of other things going back. I'm totally not a scientist and really happy to be proven wrong. Although, all our efforts should be behind getting kids back to school before anything else.

Schools are a relatively safe environment, teaching is not a high risk profession as the data is saying.

I just think its not quite as simple as September + schools = spike. Our lives don't work like that, the data doesn't massively show that. Which is why the gvt are right with their stages.

Thank god they've stop thinking about tiers though.

Notwithstanding everything, I do like the lockstep approach, with proper reviews as we go.

Chris Whitty just explained the schools thing really well and passionately as a journalist had misquoted him on the subject previously. 

15 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

11 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

A massive coincidence?

 

In data, that's called convergence.

1 hour ago, Traf said:

Not yet, but fingers crossed.

People forget that us being allowed to travel doesn't mean we can travel. Lots of countries don't/won't want us in.

My Ashes trip is off, as Australia are 99% not re-opening the borders until 2022.

Any idea what Norway are doing 

5 minutes ago, Ani said:

Chris Whitty just explained the schools thing really well and passionately as a journalist had misquoted him on the subject previously. 

He's relying on Easter holiday to be a firebreak. I think he knows it’s a major major risk. 

If the gvt pressure TFL to be more flexible about their inflexible pricing. Then I'm tory through and through.

18 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Mutant elves?

Not even close to being the daftest thing said on this thread 😂