The other day Rudy said we were 250-1 to win the league.

I put £10 on at 150-1.

Decent odds for a team on a roll.

33 minutes ago, Zico said:

I meant the debate/question as to whether or not cash out favours the bookie, course it does

But is "never cash out" purely down to value for money being offered though?  

If at this stage bookies offered exact value for money on us winning the title, would you cash out, or, would you stick with it because you think we'd do it and/or you want to get the full amount?   

Am being offered £136 for winning the title, stand to win £1000, not sure what actual value would be, but I wouldn't take £500 as i reckon we can do it

I hear someone got offered 7k cash out on a 33k bet last week 

If they'd offered 12k, for example, do you reckon it'd be more tempting because it offered value, or, is it about sticking with your judgement and wanting 33k? 

If it's purely a question of value for you, fair enough, but would you have turned down £275k on that horse that could've won you 500k because it favoured the bookie?  

I’ve same view as you on cash out, would of took the 6k that Birch was offered, for a relatively small bet that’s just to much money to lose, not sure how there’s a profit for the bookie if you put £10 on and they offer £500 for a cash out, it’s less loss to the bookie but not a profit. I cashed out and lost £200 last week but I was happy with £460 for a £15 bet and couldn’t be arsed waiting for the delayed result at Port vale v Morecambe & at 1-0 was to tight a game to risk the £460.

8 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’ve same view as you on cash out, would of took the 6k that Birch was offered, for a relatively small bet that’s just to much money to lose, not sure how there’s a profit for the bookie if you put £10 on and they offer £500 for a cash out, it’s less loss to the bookie but not a profit. I cashed out and lost £200 last week but I was happy with £460 for a £15 bet and couldn’t be arsed waiting for the delayed result at Port vale v Morecambe & at 1-0 was to tight a game to risk the £460.

The logic is that if the game was 'too tight' you should not back it all. If they had not been delayed then ultimately you are relying on that game.

This is about 'proper' gambling not sticking money on stuff you want to happen. So it is about value, remember Garp backing New Orleans in super bowl stood to win I think £20k +, backed at 25/1 ( I think) by the time of the final was offered massive cash out but he thought bad value so did not cash out. In bets on leagues the odds change as it progresses. Not sure if that would have happened on your bet. 
Cashing out is never good value so serious gamblers very unlikely to take it, however for the rest of us if the amount offered is high enough sure plenty will. I bet very few Leicester fans who took the 500/1 actually held on till end of season if offered cash outs. 

18 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’ve same view as you on cash out, would of took the 6k that Birch was offered, for a relatively small bet that’s just to much money to lose, not sure how there’s a profit for the bookie if you put £10 on and they offer £500 for a cash out, it’s less loss to the bookie but not a profit. I cashed out and lost £200 last week but I was happy with £460 for a £15 bet and couldn’t be arsed waiting for the delayed result at Port vale v Morecambe & at 1-0 was to tight a game to risk the £460.

Oh and it is 'profit' to the bookie as they are reducing their costs and will increase their margin. The over round on an event will typically be 20-25% I think, so that is the bookies profit margin. Cash outs reduce payouts and increase the over round. 
 

At the end of the day if someone offers you enough money and you are happy , take it. Just accept if you do it every time it is offered you will lose out in the long run. 

25 minutes ago, Ani said:

Oh and it is 'profit' to the bookie as they are reducing their costs and will increase their margin. The over round on an event will typically be 20-25% I think, so that is the bookies profit margin. Cash outs reduce payouts and increase the over round. 
 

At the end of the day if someone offers you enough money and you are happy , take it. Just accept if you do it every time it is offered you will lose out in the long run. 

It’s only extra profit to the bookie if the bet wins and you accept the cash out. If it loses and you take the cash out it’s a loss to the bookie. 

Cash Out is designed to unsettle the punter IMO. If your bet has a £10k payout and they offer you £5k, cash out suddenly puts the FOMO into your head and you start thinking that "I could lose £5k here". The reality is that you can only lose your stake and you've already accepted that is the likely outcome anyway.

I see on social media and on here.."FFS, XYZ United cost me £x by letting a late goal in..." It's not true, you lost just your stake on a sequence of events that was unlikely to start with and that you'd taken poor odds on anyway.

If you think A, B & C will happen and then A & B do happen, why should you take a reduced return if you still think C will happen? That's the view from a regular gambler.

However, I do understand why small stakes occasional punters take cash out, as it's money in the bag.

Thanks to all who responded to my question re: why you shouldn't cash out.

Makes interesting reading 👍

Also, if I'd already seen how it works I wouldn't have asked the question in the 1st place....... 

 

 

52 minutes ago, Traf said:

Cash Out is designed to unsettle the punter IMO. If your bet has a £10k payout and they offer you £5k, cash out suddenly puts the FOMO into your head and you start thinking that "I could lose £5k here". The reality is that you can only lose your stake and you've already accepted that is the likely outcome anyway.

I see on social media and on here.."FFS, XYZ United cost me £x by letting a late goal in..." It's not true, you lost just your stake on a sequence of events that was unlikely to start with and that you'd taken poor odds on anyway.

If you think A, B & C will happen and then A & B do happen, why should you take a reduced return if you still think C will happen? That's the view from a regular gambler.

However, I do understand why small stakes occasional punters take cash out, as it's money in the bag.

out of interest, might've been touched upon already

50/1 for the title, £20

offered £136

I'm not cashing out, I think we can do it - if permitted I'd do it going into the last 10 mins v Crawley if it was ours but we were only winning 1-0

but

what is the true value of that bet right now?

(and would you take it?)

5 minutes ago, Zico said:

out of interest, might've been touched upon already

50/1 for the title, £20

offered £136

I'm not cashing out, I think we can do it - if permitted I'd do it going into the last 10 mins v Crawley if it was ours but we were only winning 1-0

but

what is the true value of that bet right now?

(and would you take it?)

If you haven't bet each way your return is £1020. 

We're generally 5/1. So to get your return you would have to stake £170 at 5/1. 

So your cash out offer is about 80% (136/170) of what a fair cash out would be. (even that is based on the odds being fair, which they probably aren't).

I put a promotion bet on in Jan/ early Feb at 20/1. On the basis we had a good run and if we did well in the next few I'd have a good value bet. When we won them all there was no way I was cashing out. 

Similarly now, Cheltenham play away Friday, then we play bottom of the league Saturday. I'd be too tempted that this weekend could swing in our favour. 

2 hours ago, Mounts Kipper said:

It’s only extra profit to the bookie if the bet wins and you accept the cash out. If it loses and you take the cash out it’s a loss to the bookie. 

 I see where you are coming from. But you are missing the point that for a bookie it is all about maximising margins. The bets were are talking about all have changing odds over a period of time. So in your instance the odds of getting all the results right was about 44/1 - £660 back from £15.

You got the first few right and they offered you £460. Which you took, fair enough. Given the timing Vale would have been 1 up and their odds must have been less than 1/2 in running. At that point the bookie is paying off a potential liability of £200. But they are also taking bets on the game and offering bets odds than you get in your cash out. At the point of taking the cash out no one knows the final outcome but the bookies margin has increased and so will their profits.

Having said that Garp often talked about how prices can fluctuate too much after incidents so Vale scoring could see their odds drop dramatically and then slightly increase so if you hit the sweet spot or if you just think I happy with the pay out - take it. 
 

When we say bookies make profit on cash outs it means that over time (as they always do) bookies will make more money if everyone cashes out than if no one cashes out. 
 

On your bet the fact Vale were winning would have increased the payout significantly. 

Don’t forget, for every (probably not quite every) Bolton, Cambridge or Cheltenham fan, whose teams have a realistic shot at taking money from the bookies, there are fans of 21 other teams who may have started the season having a hopeful punt on their team having a great season. The losing bets will more than account for the winning bets I reckon. Bookies aren’t that arsed who wins the league, they’ll be quids in whatever the outcome.

I’m not allowed to bet because of gambling regulations at work, but I’d love the excitement of a season long bet being close to coming in. 

13 minutes ago, Rudy said:

I’m not allowed to bet because of gambling regulations at work, but I’d love the excitement of a season long bet being close to coming in. 

I’d be interested to know how the powers that be see a small wager by a fan on a division 4 team getting promoted impacts on your work. It’s not like you’re betting on or against your own club or even results in the same league.

Not worth risking a good job over.

38 minutes ago, MickyD said:

I’d be interested to know how the powers that be see a small wager by a fan on a division 4 team getting promoted impacts on your work. It’s not like you’re betting on or against your own club or even results in the same league.

It’s just a blanket ban, you work with players it’s a no go. Not even on horses. Think it would be something to do with players maybe asking you to bet for you, or having insider information

Like Kieran Trippier tipping his mate off that he was going to Madrid 

Edited April 15, 20215 yr by Rudy

1 hour ago, MickyD said:

I’d be interested to know how the powers that be see a small wager by a fan on a division 4 team getting promoted impacts on your work. It’s not like you’re betting on or against your own club or even results in the same league.

Think mentioned before worked with a linesman who was doing Championship level, he did our game when got beat 5-2 I think at Leicester. He was not even allowed to join the work Fantasy League. 

1 hour ago, Rudy said:

I’m not allowed to bet because of gambling regulations at work, but I’d love the excitement of a season long bet being close to coming in. 

This is the case at non league too

10 hours ago, Ani said:

The logic is that if the game was 'too tight' you should not back it all. If they had not been delayed then ultimately you are relying on that game.

This is about 'proper' gambling not sticking money on stuff you want to happen. So it is about value, remember Garp backing New Orleans in super bowl stood to win I think £20k +, backed at 25/1 ( I think) by the time of the final was offered massive cash out but he thought bad value so did not cash out. In bets on leagues the odds change as it progresses. Not sure if that would have happened on your bet. 
Cashing out is never good value so serious gamblers very unlikely to take it, however for the rest of us if the amount offered is high enough sure plenty will. I bet very few Leicester fans who took the 500/1 actually held on till end of season if offered cash outs. 

2k at 28s

On 20/02/2021 at 08:36, Horwich said:

Are we eck 🤣🤣

Final answer? 😁

Just now, Rudy said:

Final answer? 😁

Poor old Horwich, he’s still suffering from his call that Thomason was shite. 😂

16 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Poor old Horwich, he’s still suffering from his call that Thomason was shite. 😂

We all make mistakes 😂

33 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Poor old Horwich, he’s still suffering from his call that Thomason was shite. 😂

He is.

38 minutes ago, Rudy said:

Final answer? 😁

Are you still making up job titles?

Just now, Horwich said:

Are you still making up job titles?

Yeah chief cone inspector and bib ironer extraordinare 

20 minutes ago, Rudy said:

We all make mistakes 😂

Imaginary jobs is up there 🤣🤣🤣 

2 minutes ago, Horwich said:

Imaginary jobs is up there 🤣🤣🤣 

😂