The other day Rudy said we were 250-1 to win the league.

I put £10 on at 150-1.

Decent odds for a team on a roll.

for the first time, based on the current table, i think its fair to say we should go up

34 minutes ago, Rudy said:

@boltondiver @Zico what are your cash outs now?

I cashed out after Easter.

 

Just now, Mr Grey said:

NEVER CASH OUT

Correct.

19 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I cashed out after Easter.

 

For how much and what was the potential to win?

I suppose it only confirms that I'm a football fan, but I can't help looking at that table & thinking "fck. If we'd just won against Newport".

 

9 minutes ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

I suppose it only confirms that I'm a football fan, but I can't help looking at that table & thinking "fck. If we'd just won against Newport".

 

How about the red card v Morecambe ? 
2 for us, 1 off them. 

2 minutes ago, Ani said:

How about the red card v Morecambe ? 
2 for us, 1 off them. 

Yep.

.... & the Tramps from Wirral taking 6pts off us.

The trouble, of course, is that once you start with this revisionism every point is up for grabs. But it's irresistible. 

I stopped doing the what if’s when we pulled three points from nowhere against Barrow. 

Bet365 offering me £577 cash out from what would be a £1400 total if we won the league. I’m sticking with it. 

20 minutes ago, Leyther_Matt said:

I stopped doing the what if’s when we pulled three points from nowhere against Barrow. 

Bet365 offering me £577 cash out from what would be a £1400 total if we won the league. I’m sticking with it. 

I never advise cashout, but that's actually generous odds.

47 minutes ago, Traf said:

I never advise cashout, but that's actually generous odds.

Presume it must be an each way bet ? With that return 

If not cash it out, take £300 and put the rest on us to win league at 9/2

Edited April 14, 20215 yr by Ani
Odds corrected

On 11/04/2021 at 10:34, jmjhb said:

56.6% chance of Top 3

5.7% 1st

20.2% 2nd

30.7% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.4% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 69.2% chance

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

Edited April 14, 20215 yr by jmjhb

52 minutes ago, Traf said:

I never advise cashout, but that's actually generous odds.

Can you explain why you should never cash out?

1 minute ago, jeep said:

Can you explain why you should never cash out?

He does a mathematical bit, that shows the offer isn't particularly good value.

I'm sure he'll explain it more fully, but if Crawley do us a favour on Friday, which I have a sneaky feeling they will, then the offer will no doubt rise.

35 minutes ago, jmjhb said:

 

7 more points needed, lads

depends when any points come imo

particulary re the morecambe game

27 minutes ago, jeep said:

Can you explain why you should never cash out?

Because you are reducing your odds and gambling done properly like Traf and Garp is about value.

So you bet £100 on Bolton to win the league at 10/1 to return £1100 because you think the chances of it happening are less than 10/1 (remember this is proper betting not fans)

Bolton do well and their odds are now evens. They may offer £450 as cash out, if you take it you have accepted 7/2 as your odds instead of 10/1.

If you put the £450 on at evens you only win £900. Cash out are always in the bookies favour by 10-15% which is a massive margin for no risk. You have to take the emotion out that it is a win and often a good chunk of money, the value call is always (nearly) to let it run.

1 hour ago, Leyther_Matt said:

I stopped doing the what if’s when we pulled three points from nowhere against Barrow. 

Bet365 offering me £577 cash out from what would be a £1400 total if we won the league. I’m sticking with it. 

577 on Bolton winning league is 9/2 would give £2596.50.

cash out and put it all back on

3 minutes ago, MickyD said:

577 on Bolton winning league is 9/2 would give £2596.50.

cash out and put it all back on

I think part of the bet must be each way, so the place element will be paying out at about 80% of full value, the win element will be about 7/2 at a guess

59 minutes ago, Ani said:

Presume it must be an each way bet ? With that return 

If not cash it out, take £300 and put the rest on us to win league at 9/2

 

5 minutes ago, MickyD said:

577 on Bolton winning league is 9/2 would give £2596.50.

cash out and put it all back on

There are about 18 different bets, but the majority are each way outrights, so I’d rather take the chance. £650ish for top three or £1400 for winning the league. Plus there’s the very much non-mathematical superstition of not wanting to jinx us 😂

1 hour ago, jmjhb said:

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

Fuck it, win our last 5 games and we go up as champions.

4 hours ago, jmjhb said:

78.2% chance of Top 3

11.7% 1st

30.3% 2nd

36.3% 3rd

76 points gives a 44.6% chance of promotion

77 points gives a 71.6% chance

7 more points needed, lads

76 points - 55% chance of promotion. 

77 points - 75% chance.

Win @ Grimsby and we are almost there. 

 

Personally think we will get promotion against Exeter 

8 hours ago, Ani said:

Because you are reducing your odds and gambling done properly like Traf and Garp is about value.

So you bet £100 on Bolton to win the league at 10/1 to return £1100 because you think the chances of it happening are less than 10/1 (remember this is proper betting not fans)

Bolton do well and their odds are now evens. They may offer £450 as cash out, if you take it you have accepted 7/2 as your odds instead of 10/1.

If you put the £450 on at evens you only win £900. Cash out are always in the bookies favour by 10-15% which is a massive margin for no risk. You have to take the emotion out that it is a win and often a good chunk of money, the value call is always (nearly) to let it run.

Pretty much this.
Bookies always make a profit, despite what they say. There's always a margin involved.

For example the odds of heads v tails is 50/50 ie even money.
A bookie would offer you 9/10, so in the long run you'd lose.

This also explains why multiples / accas are the bookies pension. 
If you get 90% of true value off each bet, by the time you get to 7 selections in an acca, the bet is down to less than 48% of true worth.

 

But I digress : cash out was invented by and is offered by the bookies.
Ask yourself why? Altruism or profit?

I'm not even sure why it's up for debate 

Of course cash out favours the bookie 

They are giving you a chance to take less money on something that hasn't happened yet and might not 

On the flip side they could lose a lot themselves, like that guy who cashed out on the horses for 275k, stood to win 500k, and it fell at the first fence 

Since when has a bookie been in it for good will and benevolence?!

43 minutes ago, Zico said:

I'm not even sure why it's up for debate 

Because people keep asking why some of us insist on not cashing out.

7 hours ago, Traf said:

Because people keep asking why some of us insist on not cashing out.

I meant the debate/question as to whether or not cash out favours the bookie, course it does

But is "never cash out" purely down to value for money being offered though?  

If at this stage bookies offered exact value for money on us winning the title, would you cash out, or, would you stick with it because you think we'd do it and/or you want to get the full amount?   

Am being offered £136 for winning the title, stand to win £1000, not sure what actual value would be, but I wouldn't take £500 as i reckon we can do it

I hear someone got offered 7k cash out on a 33k bet last week 

If they'd offered 12k, for example, do you reckon it'd be more tempting because it offered value, or, is it about sticking with your judgement and wanting 33k? 

If it's purely a question of value for you, fair enough, but would you have turned down £275k on that horse that could've won you 500k because it favoured the bookie?  

Edited April 15, 20215 yr by Zico