Slow news day? The real deal? End of the world? 
 

They’re saying it probably came from an animal, has Somebody been shagging monkeys again? 

6 minutes ago, gonzo said:

Question -

what are the rates of infuflenza and influenza related deaths in china and Italy in any normal year?

and could their death rates be high because they aren’t used to getting flu? 

(Question raised by a mental pub cleaner at the galleon pub in Blackpool) 

?? It varies year on year, depending on how effective the flu vaccine is in any particular season, how many people take the vaccine, and the weather. Question is irrelevant.  Because we've had continual seasonal flu for years, healthcare systems have been built with this is mind, so if well funded, they can cope with the fluctuations in seasonal flu numbers to a certain extent. lots of people still die of it. Its the effectiveness of the system (general public health/vaccine/antivirals/support systems) that is the most important factor . 

The problem with Covid 19 is that it is new, and we don't have the infrastructure to deal with it. The last time we had a pandemic like this was in 1918, when healthcare systems weren't developed . NHS has only been around since 1948. We haven't prepared correctly for this, partly because we haven't had to do it before, and partly because it would cost Trillions of £ which we have spent in other areas. 

The countries affected by SARS in 2003, China, Hong Kong, Singapore had a head start on us, they've done this before, and thats partly why they've dealt with it in a better way so far

TOILET ROLLS UPDATE

Plenty available at the big Home Bargains near Sainsburys in town - probably have to get there in the next half hour mind

 

26 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

But goes back to my question 

regarding schools how do they police who’s parents are key workers and not 

most could tip up yeah in a key worker off you pop 

The Coronavirus Bill, which will be passed next week, gives the government the ability to rule over who can enter or leave any premise in the UK if it fits their criteria of unreasonably increasing the population risk to virus spread - they will be able to warn, fine and detain those who break the new laws. If loads of people exploited the school rules, I'm sure they would start to apply this.  

38 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said:

But goes back to my question 

regarding schools how do they police who’s parents are key workers and not 

most could tip up yeah in a key worker off you pop 

My sons school sent an email last night asking for parents to reply if there child is one that should go in and to provide details of employment. Not sure if they will actually check up on that though

This is a macabre, yet addictive page updating totals around the wold.

It's not going away. Not even close.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

My lads been told he can go in as he's a spesh kid but without his 1 to 1 support.

Wouldn't be fair on him, the staff or the other kids. So he's stayin home with us 

51 minutes ago, gonzo said:

Question -

what are the rates of infuflenza and influenza related deaths in china and Italy in any normal year?

and could their death rates be high because they aren’t used to getting flu? 

(Question raised by a mental pub cleaner at the galleon pub in Blackpool) 

Something not right about the number of deaths in Italy, wonder if these poor folk could have flu and corona virus? 

9 minutes ago, Spider said:

This is a macabre, yet addictive page updating totals around the wold.

It's not going away. Not even close.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Kin’ell Spain has shot up

10 minutes ago, Spider said:

This is a macabre, yet addictive page updating totals around the wold.

It's not going away. Not even close.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain closing in on Italy

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Something not right about the number of deaths in Italy, wonder if these poor folk could have flu and corona virus? 

It's going to be the same in every western country, possibly until the effects of social distancing, testing etc start to kick in,  4 or 5 weeks down the track, if they work.

If its gets a hold in countries with poor medical and support services, it will be much worse, and we won't hear about the figures until later on in their timeline - I'd be surprised if there aren't already vastly more deaths in the likes of Pakistan and India

If we get through to autumn without a large % population immunity, or effective antivirals it's going to come back until we have a vaccine.

 

Waiting to see if school will still accept my child in school next week. If not im still working! She will have to go in the office answering the phone to the patients 😂 I'm so worried about the patients I visit in Little Lever and Breightmet who have no family 😢 please check on your neighbours. Post your number to them. They need us. 

1 minute ago, bolton_blondie said:

Waiting to see if school will still accept my child in school next week. If not im still working! She will have to go in the office answering the phone to the patients 😂 I'm so worried about the patients I visit in Little Lever and Breightmet who have no family 😢 please check on your neighbours. Post your number to them. They need us. 

You're considered a key worker, surely?

1 minute ago, bolton_blondie said:

Waiting to see if school will still accept my child in school next week. If not im still working! She will have to go in the office answering the phone to the patients 😂 I'm so worried about the patients I visit in Little Lever and Breightmet who have no family 😢 please check on your neighbours. Post your number to them. They need us. 

Good luck - it's people like you who will be the most important in the coming weeks.  

20 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Something not right about the number of deaths in Italy, wonder if these poor folk could have flu and corona virus? 

Italy has an average age of 45 in their population. China has an average age of 38. UK is 40.

Given each increased year of age adds a % to your risk - age likely being the single biggest factor in determining probability of outcome - it makes sense to an extent. 

40 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

It's going to be the same in every western country, possibly until the effects of social distancing, testing etc start to kick in,  4 or 5 weeks down the track, if they work.

If its gets a hold in countries with poor medical and support services, it will be much worse, and we won't hear about the figures until later on in their timeline - I'd be surprised if there aren't already vastly more deaths in the likes of Pakistan and India

If we get through to autumn without a large % population immunity, or effective antivirals it's going to come back until we have a vaccine.

 

Do we know that for sure, China wasn’t as bad as Italy this seems a peculiarly high level of deaths.  Think we will know more in a fortnight, I suspect deaths elsewhere will be less and hope that’s exactly the case. 

Edited March 20, 20206 yr by Mounts Kipper

Just now, Leyther_Matt said:

You're considered a key worker, surely?

Yes but still no definate answer from school. Hopefully hear today. 

In other news the NHS has finally provided its community staff with masks! 

2 minutes ago, bolton_blondie said:

In other news the NHS has finally provided its community staff with masks! 

150 lorry loads set off from government warehouse with ppe in them, last night.

Another similar number still be be dispatched.

Should be ok now, certainly for a while. Hopefully manufacturers can meet subsequent demand.

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Do we know that for sure, China wasn’t as bad as Italy this seems a peculiarly high level of deaths.  Think we will no more in a fortnight, I suspect deaths elsewhere will be less and hope that’s exactly the case. 

Don't compare the progress of infections rates in different countries using the confirmed cases numbers - they are a red herring.

The confirmed cases number varies massively from country to country depending on how many they have tested and at what stage in their timeline the tests were carried out.

You need to be looking at the amount of deaths, and the hsitoric growth rate to get a more accurate idea of how the infection is faring. when the growth rate starts to drop, that means the infection rates dropped a few weeks prior.

The quarantine of 60 million people in China, at an earlier stage than Italy (when there was less people infected) is thought to be the main reason why they have had less total deaths.

9 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Do we know that for sure, China wasn’t as bad as Italy this seems a peculiarly high level of deaths.  Think we will no more in a fortnight, I suspect deaths elsewhere will be less and hope that’s exactly the case. 

I'm not overly convinced we've ever had the true numbers from China, my contacts there have painted a very bleak picture and suggested that they may have had more deaths than reported

2 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I'm not overly convinced we've ever had the true numbers from China, my contacts there have painted a very bleak picture and suggested that they may have had more deaths than reported

I wonder how effective their data gathering etc was/is particularly for outlying areas.

Also given their ignorance at the beginning.

42 minutes ago, Wardrobe said:

My sons school sent an email last night asking for parents to reply if there child is one that should go in and to provide details of employment. Not sure if they will actually check up on that though

Well that’s something, like you say will they check I don’t know but it could put the fakes off 

like the janitor says honesty will play apart 

Just now, Sweep said:

I'm not overly convinced we've ever had the true numbers from China, my contacts there have painted a very bleak picture and suggested that they may have had more deaths than reported

Correct - we should have copied South Korea - more links to China than Italy, had the virus before Italy, tested 300K many more than Italy and earlier in the timeline, took other earlier measures, they have a similar population to Italy and high average age 41.8. They are at 94 deaths and their growth rate is now tiny in comparison to W Europe.

They have found that the young are much more likely to be asymptomatic, and much more likely to spread the virus - they tested thousands, anyone found positive, traced back as many people that they'd recently been in contact with and they were isolated too - this stopped the spread early on.

Did we have sufficient testing kits/personnel?

Like you've said previously, they'd had experience from sars.

4 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I wonder how effective their data gathering etc was/is particularly for outlying areas.

Also given their ignorance at the beginning.

They happily announced the other day that they'd had no new cases, that was the same day as one of my contacts who lives in Shenzhen, her husband, was diagnosed with it 🤨

I appreciate there may be a lag in reporting these things, but to think the problem for them has gone away, is probably a bit early

Also, today, one of our factories has advised that DHL, TNT and FedEx are now refusing to pick up any parcels for delivery into Europe (The Schengen bit) - UK is OK for now, so we'll get our bits, but there is a fucking massive backlog of products starting to build up in the various ports around China that simply can't be shipped to anywhere