birch-chorley Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tombwfc said: There absolutely needs to be a balance, but other countries aren't just throwing their hands up and saying whatever will be will be. Testing and tracing only work if the number of cases are low, and other measures are still in place. Remove social distancing (as you suggested) and you might as well not bother. By the time any of the 8,000 people getting infected every day develop symptoms (around five days for the symptoms, probably 48 hours for the test) they'll have been in close contact with loads of other people at work/the pub/shops. And we'd have no idea who most of those are. The steps we're taking are broadly the right ones, on paper. It's the timing and trust in the message and what's actually being delivered that are concerning. South Korea had 80 positive cases the other day and started shutting schools. We're re-opening ours at 2,000. It does feel quite a lot like we've mismanaged the first bit and are now rushing to catch up to everyone else. I wouldn’t say that socially distancing / shielding millions who are in at risk groups can be classed as ‘throwing our hands up’ We need a solution where the rest of us can carry on in a normal way to support industries that won’t survive social distancing - what’s the point in saving the NHS now to get to the other side and have a decimated economy. A depression will end up hurting the NHS It was always about stopping the NHS being overrun, that should still be the case of course. Perhaps we should all be vaccinated against winter flu this year (not just the usual at risk groups), that should help with NHS capacity through the winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted May 30, 2020 Moderators Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Spider said: Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging. Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc. A nice hot summer could be very useful. I had gigs lined up for March, May and June each one has now been put back 12 months not heard of any gigs due to still take place this year (though TBF I only know about the ones I'm going to), but will be surprised if any that are scheduled for 2020 go ahead, or if any rescheduled ones are for a date this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted May 30, 2020 Moderators Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) .. Edited May 30, 2020 by ZicoKelly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted May 30, 2020 Moderators Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Spider said: Brazil - doing very well. they're pissing it with record breaking numbers, and they don't even know when their peak will be yet and they've not been testing either, so could be up to 15 times more cases than they think but as Bosernaro said, "what do you want me to do about it?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Escobarp said: I would agree but I genuinely don’t see us back at football and gigs. I certainly wouldn’t be going anyway Is have thought we'll be into 2021 before we're looking at stuff like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said: they're pissing it with record breaking numbers, and they don't even know when their peak will be yet and they've not been testing either, so could be up to 15 times more cases than they think but as Bosernaro said, "what do you want me to do about it?" At least we have an example for anyone wondering what would have happened if we did fuck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 If the R number goes up when multiple restictions are lifted, how are they going to know which one has caused it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted May 30, 2020 Moderators Share Posted May 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ani said: At least we have an example for anyone wondering what would have happened if we did fuck all. someone should tell the guy who writes for Conservative Woman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: If the R number goes up when multiple restictions are lifted, how are they going to know which one has caused it? I’m not sure it’s possible to ever figure that out without the contact tracing system working as you can then identify what event or what they have done? we are reliant on the public who get this to be honest and quick and feed accurate info in. That’s how I see it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombwfc Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: I wouldn’t say that socially distancing / shielding millions who are in at risk groups can be classed as ‘throwing our hands up’ We need a solution where the rest of us can carry on in a normal way to support industries that won’t survive social distancing - what’s the point in saving the NHS now to get to the other side and have a decimated economy. A depression will end up hurting the NHS It was always about stopping the NHS being overrun, that should still be the case of course. Perhaps we should all be vaccinated against winter flu this year (not just the usual at risk groups), that should help with NHS capacity through the winter I disagree really. Test and trace doesn't work without everyone adhering to some kind of social distancing, for some of the reasons I mentioned above. Also, the current system requires anyone with a positive test to give the names and contact info of anyone they've been within 2m of for 15 minutes, or been face to face with within 1m at all. If you're commuting in a city to a large workplace with no distancing, the numbers become infeasible almost instantly. Similarly, the number of people with underlying conditions is massive. Extend that to people who live in households with people with underlying conditions (asthma, obesity etc.) and you'd be struggling to have enough left to run the country. Even if you can convince the rest to stay indoors while we go to the pub. So in the end, we'd be leaving lockdown and returning to normal with the benefit of what? The ability to test but not effectively trace and additional capacity in the NHS that we didn't use first time around, on our way to one of the highest death tolls in the world. I'd say that is close to throwing our hands up. The path forward seems pretty clear to me, and to some extent we're following it. But it takes patience and adding/removing measures based on what the virus is doing, rather than what looks good politically or because we feel it's time to move on from a contagious disease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted May 30, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted May 30, 2020 The UK government borrowed almost $76 billion in April, pushing its total public debt to close to 100% of the country’s GDP, its highest in nearly 60 years Long road back... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: The UK government borrowed almost $76 billion in April, pushing its total public debt to close to 100% of the country’s GDP, its highest in nearly 60 years Long road back... No trying to sound like some on here but I’ve been predicting this for some time. It’s honestly dark dark road ahead. But In saying that we will recover and it won’t hit all of us. It’s just going to take a long time to unravel. Some very clever strategy required from the BoE and government Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, Tombwfc said: I disagree really. Test and trace doesn't work without everyone adhering to some kind of social distancing, for some of the reasons I mentioned above. Also, the current system requires anyone with a positive test to give the names and contact info of anyone they've been within 2m of for 15 minutes, or been face to face with within 1m at all. If you're commuting in a city to a large workplace with no distancing, the numbers become infeasible almost instantly. Similarly, the number of people with underlying conditions is massive. Extend that to people who live in households with people with underlying conditions (asthma, obesity etc.) and you'd be struggling to have enough left to run the country. Even if you can convince the rest to stay indoors while we go to the pub. So in the end, we'd be leaving lockdown and returning to normal with the benefit of what? The ability to test but not effectively trace and additional capacity in the NHS that we didn't use first time around, on our way to one of the highest death tolls in the world. I'd say that is close to throwing our hands up. The path forward seems pretty clear to me, and to some extent we're following it. But it takes patience and adding/removing measures based on what the virus is doing, rather than what looks good politically or because we feel it's time to move on from a contagious disease. It’s not just about deciding to move on from a contagious disease it’s about avoiding an economic depression, which in itself will cause many thousands of deaths Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Lockdown Driveway bingo time again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green genie Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Spider said: Brazil - doing very well. Who'd have think Turkey would be a model example of control https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-52831017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 57 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: It’s not just about deciding to move on from a contagious disease it’s about avoiding an economic depression, which in itself will cause many thousands of deaths Spot on lives v lives Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Escobarp said: I’m not sure it’s possible to ever figure that out without the contact tracing system working as you can then identify what event or what they have done? we are reliant on the public who get this to be honest and quick and feed accurate info in. That’s how I see it It would be possible if they did one at a time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: It would be possible if they did one at a time But you still wouldn’t know unless you started one then stopped as just because you start a second activity it doesn’t mean it comes from that source ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Green light for kids one to one and small group coaching, don’t know about others but my lad is climbing the wall without football Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Whilst we had significant issues, like death and oblivion, these past 10 weeks have aspects of bliss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, boltondiver said: Spot on lives v lives Maybe, but on the other hand....., Edited May 30, 2020 by mickbrown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted May 30, 2020 Moderators Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, boltondiver said: Spot on lives v lives Do your parents still have theirs? Genuine question, mine do and really that's all I'm bothered about My business, savings and pension can wait till we get our daily death toll till at least below 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boby Brno Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, boltondiver said: Lockdown Driveway bingo time again Is it the lad who has been on tv? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, mickbrown said: Maybe, but on the other hand....., Why are they not comparing the stats like for like in terms of when we came out of lockdown surely that would be a better comparison? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted May 30, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted May 30, 2020 I’d say it’s more a case of life vs lives now. God help the government if they have to start locking down again, especially if the weather holds. Not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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