What is that "mate" of mine Sadiq Khan trying to achieve ?

 

You lost you demented little cretin, get over it and concentrate on your job you terrorist sympathiser.

This quote by John Curtice has stayed in my mind since the last GE; 

 

“I do just wonder whether the people advising her actually understood the electoral system and the way it operates these days well enough,” he says. “Because I spent months with people ringing me up saying the Tories have a nine-point lead in the polls should Theresa May go for it? And I said Noo, noo. That’s too small. It might look a big number. It’s not big enough. It’s too risky. I was surprised she went for it.”

You can see the thinking behind the decision though, even without hindsight. How poor was Corbyn's campaigning in the preceeding local elections and the EU referendum when he didn't seem to bother?

You can see the thinking behind the decision though, even without hindsight. How poor was Corbyn's campaigning in the preceeding local elections and the EU referendum when he didn't seem to bother?

Only under the guise of cynical political expedience. It was a snap decision, without taking proper advice.

 

That's why why he called it right. If you looked at the data, whilst it looked like the gap was big, in reality the swing only had to be small for the majority to be cancelled out. Which is why she could gain 2 million more votes than Cameron and still lose the majority. 

 

Any election is a gamble, the issue is, she and her team didn't understand the odds.

I think she seriously misjudged the effect of the Copeland by-election victory.

A geography graduate should have realised that was an exceptional constituency with no impact beyond its immediate neighbours, and certainly not typical of the industrial north overall.

Haha.

 

If he'd done that to trump....

 

He has - Swastika golf balls

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8Ju8wZukYQ

Only under the guise of cynical political expedience. It was a snap decision, without taking proper advice.

 

That's why why he called it right. If you looked at the data, whilst it looked like the gap was big, in reality the swing only had to be small for the majority to be cancelled out. Which is why she could gain 2 million more votes than Cameron and still lose the majority. 

 

Any election is a gamble, the issue is, she and her team didn't understand the odds.

I'm sure they'd have done better if they'd had a half decent campaign.

If Corbyn had offered another referendum in the last GE he'd have won it.

 

There's no way he's losing to TM in the next on the back of a probable recession anyway.

If Corbyn had offered another referendum in the last GE he'd have won it.

 

There's no way he's losing to TM in the next on the back of a probable recession anyway.

 

Sadly, I think you're correct on both counts there

I'd say she was right to call it, it went wrong for her with the shambolic manifesto

 

Both the BREXIT & Trump campaigns were won on the back of false promises and an anti establishment agenda. She should have realised that Corbyn was going to go down a similar path and promise the masses the earth (deliverable or not)

 

She should have been ready for that and had all her big guns out nailing Corbyn and his pie in the sky manifesto, however her senior team seemed to have gone to ground, something that was in her master plan apparently.

 

At the very least she should have gone on the front foot with her own manifesto and tried to sex it up with something, anything! It had absolutely nothing in it at all, granted the short and medium term economic forecast is grim on the back of Brexit but she could have talked about a 10 year vision spanning two terms with short term pain but a longer term vision. Instead she offered nothing and has paid the price, dead women walking

 

We need someone better to step forward and expose Corbyn's false promises before we face both BREXIT and hard Socialism at the same time. It really doesn't bare thinking about   

 

 

We need someone better to step forward and expose Corbyn's false promises before we face both BREXIT and hard Socialism at the same time.  

 

Will the sky fall in though?

If Corbyn had offered another referendum in the last GE he'd have won it.

There's no way he's losing to TM in the next on the back of a probable recession anyway.

He might have gained more of the Scottish vote, but remember a lot of traditional labour areas were high in terms of out votes.

Having got their way, I'm sure plenty went back and voted labour. May not have done if he'd offered another referendum.

 

Anyway, wouldn't surprise me if both parties have new leaders before the next GE. TM isn't overly popular, and corbyn is no spring chicken.

If Corbyn had offered another referendum in the last GE he'd have won it.

 

There's no way he's losing to TM in the next on the back of a probable recession anyway.

He would never do that though as he was the most pro leave leader out of all the major parties (bar UKIP)

 

He fucking hates the EU!

 

I really can't get my head around how the majority of his supporters are ardent remain voters yet they can get behind him

 

I'll give you another IF

 

IF Corbyn had actually bothered his arse to get the Labour Party message out (remain), then we wouldn't be leaving the EU

 

On the rare occasion he did come out and talk about the referendum he gave the EU, 6 out of 10. Meanwhile millions of traditional Labour voters came out and voted for BREXIT

 

FML

.

 

Anyway, wouldn't surprise me if both parties have new leaders before the next GE. TM isn't overly popular, and corbyn is no spring chicken.

 

She certainly won't be around, I reckon she'll be gone by Christmas.....he on the other hand will be sticking around I reckon, he wants that top job, and I am actually a bit worried that he'll get it, especially when the Conservatives are seen to have completely fucked up Brexit (unless they do actually get us a decent deal of course)

She should have been ready for that and had all her big guns out nailing Corbyn and his pie in the sky manifesto, however her senior team seemed to have gone to ground, something that was in her master plan apparently.

Thought they did saying it was economically unworkable but Labour said everything in their manifesto was costed whereas the Tories wasn't

 

I think the backlash for calling the election, whilst I can understand it to a point, came from her only months earlier saying she wouldn't

 

If she's in charge come the next election I'd be very surprised

On what we have currently in polling from YouGov, Labour's 'surge' came from more votes came from maximising support they already had - from the left. Simply out there aren't many of those votes remaining to capitalise on - he did the best he could with his core support.

 

He needs to reach out to the centre, and whilst his policies are popular with the centre ground, are they popular enough to counter the polling that the centre ground is yet to be convinced he will be a decent PM? The Conservatives still gather up the most votes from this area of the UK's population. 

 

All this would point to at this moment it would again be a hung parliament, if Labour can again maximise their core support. Corbyn has to convince the centre that he is competent, not just that they like his policies.

She certainly won't be around, I reckon she'll be gone by Christmas.....he on the other hand will be sticking around I reckon, he wants that top job, and I am actually a bit worried that he'll get it, especially when the Conservatives are seen to have completely fucked up Brexit (unless they do actually get us a decent deal of course)

 

They have no intention of getting any deal whatsoever. It's been blatantly obvious for nearly a year now - their 'plan' is to simply walk out of negotiations and blame the EU. It is impossible to leave the EU without hugely damaging our economy for the next few decades, so it makes far more political sense to scape-goat and blame the economic destruction on outside influences.

I'm sure they'd have done better if they'd had a half decent campaign.

That's the gamble, but they misunderstood what they were working with. They thought it would be a presidential style procession, that Corybn couldn't capitalise on what he had.

 

When the polling (very soon after the election was called) started showing them what a gamble it had been all along, they didn't have a strategy to cope. To be fair to them, I'm not sure they party would, the fact that they are still the party in power shows how much the swing has to be for Labour to win an election outright; and at the moment that would be a huge surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41509198

I think the Germans have given up playing snap with DD and now fancy playing hardball.

She certainly won't be around, I reckon she'll be gone by Christmas.....he on the other hand will be sticking around I reckon, he wants that top job, and I am actually a bit worried that he'll get it, especially when the Conservatives are seen to have completely fucked up Brexit (unless they do actually get us a decent deal of course)

He might, but he's 68. Therefore 72/73 come the next election. If he was to win he would be nearer to 80 by the time the term finished.

 

Not quite so sure, if Tories don't sort out a good brexit he may well stay, but if things quieten down and progress is made post brexit then his impetus may be lost and the infighting could return. Can't see him hanging around then.

On what we have currently in polling from YouGov, Labour's 'surge' came from more votes came from maximising support they already had - from the left. Simply out there aren't many of those votes remaining to capitalise on - he did the best he could with his core support.

 

He needs to reach out to the centre, and whilst his policies are popular with the centre ground, are they popular enough to counter the polling that the centre ground is yet to be convinced he will be a decent PM? The Conservatives still gather up the most votes from this area of the UK's population.

 

All this would point to at this moment it would again be a hung parliament, if Labour can again maximise their core support. Corbyn has to convince the centre that he is competent, not just that they like his policies.

Do you remember about two years ago I mentioned that what JC would do is shift the centre ground more towards the left. Well I think that's exactly what has happened - the whole nature of the debate has changed and him becoming PM is now a very real possibility - no matter what you think of him.

 

If he shifts his message slightly toward the centre - he'll be a shoe in. Whether he will or not is a different matter entirely.

 

The tories have fucked up massively. They've managed to lose the big Trump card that they held (ie that they're a safe pair of hands with the economy). They're managing to fuck up Brexit beyond all recognition. Despite being a red I wanted them to get on and do it and they've proved massively incapable. And the alternatives to TM? Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris? Give me a fucking break!

 

A shambles all around.

the alternatives to TM? Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris?

Ruth Davidson/Susan Calman has turned around the fortunes of the Scottish Conservative party round and I can see her getting the opportunity to do the same for the national party.

 
 
 

 
 
 

 

 
 
 

 

Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris? Give me a fucking break!

 

 

By Jove, it's time for Gove!

 

 
 

 

 
 

Ruth Davidson/Susan Calman has turned around the fortunes of the Scottish Conservative party round and I can see her getting the opportunity to do the same for the national party.

Better start looking for a safe Tory seat soon then that she could stand in

Do you remember about two years ago I mentioned that what JC would do is shift the centre ground more towards the left. Well I think that's exactly what has happened - the whole nature of the debate has changed and him becoming PM is now a very real possibility - no matter what you think of him.

 

If he shifts his message slightly toward the centre - he'll be a shoe in. Whether he will or not is a different matter entirely.

 

The tories have fucked up massively. They've managed to lose the big Trump card that they held (ie that they're a safe pair of hands with the economy). They're managing to fuck up Brexit beyond all recognition. Despite being a red I wanted them to get on and do it and they've proved massively incapable. And the alternatives to TM? Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris? Give me a fucking break!

 

A shambles all around.

 

 

It's amazing where people get their narrative from.

 

That's just like listening to Laura K.

 

The real world contains other elements, such as record employment, increasing investment by SMEs , investment by European companies and the lowest unemployment for 40 years.

 

In the real world, it's not all doom and gloom. Yes, there are issues, but there's plenty of opportunity.

It's amazing where people get their narrative from.

 

That's just like listening to Laura K.

 

The real world contains other elements, such as record employment, increasing investment by SMEs , investment by European companies and the lowest unemployment for 40 years.

 

In the real world, it's not all doom and gloom. Yes, there are issues, but there's plenty of opportunity.

Thanks for being my window into the 'real world'. Now you've opened my eyes I can see the land of milk and honey which exists all around me.

 

Are you having 'record employment' and the lowest unemployment for 40 years' as two separate plus points?