Coronavirus

[MickyD]

19 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Quarantining is bonkers really. Just making up random rules as they go. See today DoH saying schools shouldn't close if there are suspected cases until the cases are confirmed...so until its too late...brilliant!

Any people SUSPECTED of having the corona virus and who have possibly been in touch with a suspected carrier or visited an area where cases are confirmed ought to self quarantine anyway. 

 

[MickyD]

14 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

So long as those suspected of having it are isolated, maybe that's enough?

I'm sure they won't make any decisions without input from experts.

Micky- news saying government is looking at flying the ship people home.

The crew and staff have pretty much been used as quarantine officers, waiting staff, nurses, etc., for the paying passengers. This means they have been in direct contact. throughout the passengers' quarantine period, with probably all of those passengers. They have been wearing whatever PPE they could; paper overalls, surgical masks and gloves, goggles, but who taught them how to safely disrobe from such PPE? 
For this reason, the UK Government may well be bringing the British passengers home but the Japanese Health officials have directed that as soon as the last paying passenger leaves then the crew starts their own quarantine. It isn't what was explained to the crew when they were first asked to help out.

[bwfcfan5]

5 minutes ago, MickyD said:

Any people SUSPECTED of having the corona virus and who have possibly been in touch with a suspected carrier or visited an area where cases are confirmed ought to self quarantine anyway. 

 

Yeah this was in case of a wider outbreak in the UK. Whereby you might have several hundred cases with loads of contacts...so if a kid starts to have symptoms by then they likely will have spread it to someone else in their school who spreads it etc...close the school and you isolate it to a few cases.

I'd also accept - carry on as normal cos like a cold we can't stop this once it has a foothold...but they seem to be planning to do neither one thing nor t'other. 

[MickyD]

14 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Yeah this was in case of a wider outbreak in the UK. Whereby you might have several hundred cases with loads of contacts...so if a kid starts to have symptoms by then they likely will have spread it to someone else in their school who spreads it etc...close the school and you isolate it to a few cases.

I'd also accept - carry on as normal cos like a cold we can't stop this once it has a foothold...but they seem to be planning to do neither one thing nor t'other. 

 Does closing the school reduce the chance of spread by human contact? 

[bwfcfan5]

5 minutes ago, MickyD said:

 Does closing the school reduce the chance of spread by human contact? 

Massively. The biggest viral spreaders are schools, nurseries and health centers/hospitals. When you have norovirus outbreaks you could stop them pretty much overnight if you closed all schools and nurseries for deep cleans for 7-8 days - its just the practicality of doing so outweighs the risk. Which may well be the case here - but the reactions seem a bit mixed to me - like they are hedging their bets.

A school kid with the virus goes into school is infectious but doesn't know it - spends time with say 100 kids that day - close contact with 10 - spreads to 3 - they spread to their younger brothers and sisters who go to school/nursery and are infectious before symptoms start....and so on. 

Clearly the issue with this is the symptoms are like everyday colds/flu so very hard to manage given testing needs a swab and lab analysis to confirm. So you end up with thousands of possibles...

[MickyD]

2 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Massively. The biggest viral spreaders are schools, nurseries and health centers/hospitals. When you have norovirus outbreaks you could stop them pretty much overnight if you closed all schools and nurseries for deep cleans for 7-8 days - its just the practicality of doing so outweighs the risk. Which may well be the case here - but the reactions seem a bit mixed to me - like they are hedging their bets.

A school kid with the virus goes into school is infectious but doesn't know it - spends time with say 100 kids that day - close contact with 10 - spreads to 3 - they spread to their younger brothers and sisters who go to school/nursery and are infectious before symptoms start....and so on. 

Clearly the issue with this is the symptoms are like everyday colds/flu so very hard to manage given testing needs a swab and lab analysis to confirm. So you end up with thousands of possibles...

But this is my point. By the time someone who has the virus but isn't yet labeled an official corona virus carrier they have gone about their normal day-to-day roles; in this case be a school kid and interract with other school kids, it's probably too late to shut schools.

[bwfcfan5]

Just now, MickyD said:

But this is my point. By the time someone who has the virus but isn't yet labeled an official corona virus carrier they have gone about their normal day-to-day roles; in this case be a school kid and interract with other school kids, it's probably too late to shut schools.

Yep to an extent. Except once he has symptoms and is being tested - say the test takes 3 days - school closes and kids isolate at home as best as possible. Test negative - all back.

Test positive - then can test all his closest contacts in the school and all school staff etc. Might take another week. In the meantime any kids who have symptoms can be tested. Rather than within a week having potentially 80 cases you might have 10. 

Its not going to be perfect but would slow the spread down - which is more or less all we're trying to do. 

[MickyD]

Just now, bwfcfan5 said:

Yep to an extent. Except once he has symptoms and is being tested - say the test takes 3 days - school closes and kids isolate at home as best as possible. Test negative - all back.

Test positive - then can test all his closest contacts in the school and all school staff etc. Might take another week. In the meantime any kids who have symptoms can be tested. Rather than within a week having potentially 80 cases you might have 10. 

Its not going to be perfect but would slow the spread down - which is more or less all we're trying to do. 

I get all of that but your last sentence

Quote

Its not going to be perfect but would slow the spread down - which is more or less all we're trying to do. 

Slowing the spread down... 

Explain to this thicko, does slowing the spread down equate to limiting the spread or does it mean we'll all eventually be in contact with the virus and be split into carriers or non-carriers? If that is the case, and I suspect it could well be, does slowing the spread down simply mean the eventual split into carriers or non-carriers happen anyway but will just take a bit longer?

[Tonge moor green jacket]

49 minutes ago, MickyD said:

The crew and staff have pretty much been used as quarantine officers, waiting staff, nurses, etc., for the paying passengers. This means they have been in direct contact. throughout the passengers' quarantine period, with probably all of those passengers. They have been wearing whatever PPE they could; paper overalls, surgical masks and gloves, goggles, but who taught them how to safely disrobe from such PPE? 
For this reason, the UK Government may well be bringing the British passengers home but the Japanese Health officials have directed that as soon as the last paying passenger leaves then the crew starts their own quarantine. It isn't what was explained to the crew when they were first asked to help out.

Seems they've been a bit stuffed there.

Once home, they'll no doubt have to be quarantined, though hopefully their treatment will be better.

[bwfcfan5]

11 minutes ago, MickyD said:

I get all of that but your last sentence

Slowing the spread down... 

Explain to this thicko, does slowing the spread down equate to limiting the spread or does it mean we'll all eventually be in contact with the virus and be split into carriers or non-carriers? If that is the case, and I suspect it could well be, does slowing the spread down simply mean the eventual split into carriers or non-carriers happen anyway but will just take a bit longer?

Nobody knows exactly. You're only a carrier for a week or two. Not like once you're recovered you can pass it on...so isolate whilst infectious then move on. 

So the reason you want to try and slow it down:

1) Reduce burden on hospitals - if it spreads like wildfire and 2% need hospitalisation - its a mess.

2) Give the virus less chance of a more deadly mutation - the more it spreads the greater the risk of a mutation that means its more dangerous or spreads more easily.

3) Stall it till warmer months when viruses tend not to spread as easily either because the warmer conditions means they last less time in the air or simply because people spread out more. 

4) Stall it till a vaccine is developed.

There is a threshold above which you aren't slowing or stopping it. If you keep it below that threshold then you can somewhat control it. See the drops in cases in China recently possibly due to tougher restrictions on movement. 

The big thing are places where potential carriers are either most likely to be (health provider buildings) OR where there is a lot of unavoidable close contact - schools and nurseries etc are the worst because unlike most workplaces - where people are a few metres apart most of the time kids are often closer and have less regard for hygiene. Enough kids get it in a school the spread is accelerated.

[miamiwhite]

2 hours ago, MickyD said:

The crew and staff have pretty much been used as quarantine officers, waiting staff, nurses, etc., for the paying passengers. This means they have been in direct contact. throughout the passengers' quarantine period, with probably all of those passengers. They have been wearing whatever PPE they could; paper overalls, surgical masks and gloves, goggles, but who taught them how to safely disrobe from such PPE? 
For this reason, the UK Government may well be bringing the British passengers home but the Japanese Health officials have directed that as soon as the last paying passenger leaves then the crew starts their own quarantine. It isn't what was explained to the crew when they were first asked to help out.

Sounds like The Love 'you long time' Boat

[leigh white]

I never minded boat or ferry rides over to short jaunts, but would be bored off my tits on a cruise ship.

[miamiwhite]

1 minute ago, leigh white said:

I never minded boat or ferry rides over to short jaunts, but would be bored off my tits on a cruise ship.

Ronnie Phillips reckons you got seasick at High St baths.

Mind you, the shallow end there must have seemed like The 100ft to you🚼

[leigh white]

1 minute ago, miamiwhite said:

Ronnie Phillips reckons you got seasick at High St baths.

Mind you, the shallow end there must have seemed like The 100ft to you🚼

Only time i felt bad on a ferry was the crossing from Jersey to Weymouth after supping a shed full of ale all week, never spewed up but felt rotten, other passenger's were honking everywhere.

[miamiwhite]

Just noticed on the stock  market, a company called NCYT is doing kit testing for the coronavirus, it's seen a 100% rise this afternoon, dropped back to about 60% now. Waiting on FDA approval, then the gloves are off. 

[leigh white]

3 minutes ago, miamiwhite said:

Just noticed on the stock  market, a company called NCYT is doing kit testing for the coronavirus, it's seen a 100% rise this afternoon, dropped back to about 60% now. Waiting on FDA approval, then the gloves are off. 

Blimey, i never knew you to deal in stocks and shares, well, you live and learn.😉

[miamiwhite]

Just now, leigh white said:

Blimey, i never knew you to deal in stocks and shares, well, you live and learn.😉

Haha.....I didn't have a bean in that one though.

[MickyD]

Minds have been changed, it seems. Just received the following from the lad on the cruise liner.

The embassy has been in touch and asked all Brits (crew included) if they would be interested in being flown back

[Tonge moor green jacket]

13 hours ago, MickyD said:

Minds have been changed, it seems. Just received the following from the lad on the cruise liner.

The embassy has been in touch and asked all Brits (crew included) if they would be interested in being flown back

Latest expert interview was quite interesting. An admission that the spread on board is a bit confusing.

She said in theory the ship is an ideal quarantine facility, however for whatever reason it's not working, suggesting perhaps air filtration between cabins, sewage and and sanitary conditions etc could be at play, but she can't put a definitive reason behind it.

[bwfcfan5]

56 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Latest expert interview was quite interesting. An admission that the spread on board is a bit confusing.

She said in theory the ship is an ideal quarantine facility, however for whatever reason it's not working, suggesting perhaps air filtration between cabins, sewage and and sanitary conditions etc could be at play, but she can't put a definitive reason behind it.

Presumably though people are still bringing food to cabins - so there is still some contact spread possible.

Also the incubation period is said to be between 2 and 14 days - so entirely possible that many of the "new cases" are down to the longer end of that incubation period.

Even if the tests are being done daily on all passengers there are some reports that some people are coming back with 5 negative tests before a positive one - which is a bit unexplainable now (perhaps the test isn't very good or the throat swabs are needed to be more exacting for a chest dwelling virus). 

[MickyD]

2 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Presumably though people are still bringing food to cabins - so there is still some contact spread possible.

Did you miss the bit where I said

On 17/02/2020 at 12:45, MickyD said:

The crew and staff have pretty much been used as quarantine officers, waiting staff, nurses, etc., for the paying passengers. This means they have been in direct contact. throughout the passengers' quarantine period, with probably all of those passengers. They have been wearing whatever PPE they could; paper overalls, surgical masks and gloves, goggles, but who taught them how to safely disrobe from such PPE? 
For this reason, the UK Government may well be bringing the British passengers home but the Japanese Health officials have directed that as soon as the last paying passenger leaves then the crew starts their own quarantine. It isn't what was explained to the crew when they were first asked to help out.

 

[Marc505]

Written in 1981. 

[Escobarp]

Written by one of our own posters no less 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Is that genuine?

Better than mother Theresa.

[miamiwhite]

And what I said the other week on here, but Winchester White posted a tinfoil hat......hmmm.........wonder if he's so smug and sarcastic now.