Coronavirus

[Spider]

It’s landed.

Dig out the face masks.

#CallingDustinHoffman

[Ratwhite]

18 hours ago, peelyfeet said:

Seasonal Flu kills around 0.08% of those it infects, (UK, annually).

Covid-19 currently kills around 2 - 3.4%, with the potential for it to drop below 1% once we have a better idea of how many people have really been infected.

Seasonal flu has a transmissibilty rate (the average number of people that 1 person will pass the virus on to) of 1.3. Covid  appears to be more like 3.  

The flu vaccine and the ability of the health services to treat those with serious complications from flu, helps to keep the mortality rate relatively low.

There is no vaccine yet for Covid, and in some countries up to 10% of infected patients are presenting as serious enough to require Medical support.

Therefore in areas where the amount of patients presenting with serious complications exceeds the amount of ICU /respiratory support/oxygen beds/antibiotics to prevent sepsis - mortality rates will be higher than average, and vice versa

To summarise,  all the figures show that Covid is more easily passed on, makes a higher % of the infected seriously ill, and kills a higher % of the infected than seasonal flu.

Therefore the ability of preventative measures to reduce transmissibillity rates will be vital in reducing the mortality rate, by enabling the health services to treat more of those who require help, and providing  more time to develop a vaccine.

The best way of reducing transmisibility is isolation and quarantines, restricting travel, gatherings etc, plus higher personal hygiene standards. This is going to happen in various areas across the world, and we have no idea which areas yet. 

I expect that we aren't going to see the full impact of this virus until/unless it takes hold before a vaccine is created, in a very poor, large population.

India, Pakistan, South America and sub Saharan Africa are at great risk, the infection and death rates are going to grow there much faster than what we have seen so far

 

 

 

 

 

Highlighted. Wash yer hands. Properly 

[MickyD]

8 hours ago, Widnes Two Hats said:

First Brit has died on the Diamond Princess Ship in Japan, told you that cruising wasn't good for you

4 hours ago, Traf said:

Corona Virus or old age?

5 minutes ago, MickyD said:

I have asked my man on board. Will report back forthwith.

The guy was 70 years old and it is being widely reported as death due to the virus. The ship's crew has no reason to doubt it.

 

 

[Rudy]

How does this chap in Surrey catch it if he’s not been abroad?

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

How does this chap in Surrey catch it if he’s not been abroad?

From someone who has?

[Spider]

11 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

How does this chap in Surrey catch it if he’s not been abroad?

I’ll go big here and say there’ll be at least 50 new cases in the UK by next friday

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

From someone who has?

Or from undiscovered UK cases. I’m fairly sure this will be out in the wild now given many who get it say it feels just like having a cold. Impossible to track everyone especially more mild cases.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Or from undiscovered UK cases. I’m fairly sure this will be out in the wild now given many who get it say it feels just like having a cold. Impossible to track everyone especially more mild cases.

Probably quite a number of carriers around

[Rudy]

22 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

From someone who has?

 But if he’s not been abroad, and they believe they’ve caught everyone who has been in an effected area does it seem like it’s airborne or some pesky rascals have slipped through the net?

[Spider]

Just now, Rudy’s Message said:

 But if he’s not been abroad, and they believe they’ve caught everyone who has been in an effected area does it seem like it’s airborne or some pesky rascals have slipped through the net?

About 50,000 people land at Heathrow every day from all parts of the world.

It’s here. Probably has been for a few weeks.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

 But if he’s not been abroad, and they believe they’ve caught everyone who has been in an effected area does it seem like it’s airborne or some pesky rascals have slipped through the net?

Possibly both

As F5 will tell you; Microbes know no borders

[e2e4]

i remember reading once that various russian scientists used bacteriophages (which iirc is a virus) to knacker up various bacterial diseases. Turns out that they can do it to other viruses.. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virophage

might start an "i am legend" type scenario if they mess too much, though.

i still dont the thing about wearing facemasks , but not washing your hands after using the bog. different cultures and all that, but, doesnt seem sensible . That karl pilkington ".. if its not what they do" thing from that travelogue program he did , seems weird under the current news.  

still leaning towards "it'll be reet". 

[paulhanley]

More than anything this whole episode is another illustration of the way people over-react to absolutely everything these days. The irresponsible media are partially culpable for this (and I say that as an ex journalist) but you only have to look at Twitter to see how people enjoy drama in their lives at the expense of quiet common sense.

Coronavirus is a serious business - but an epidemic of normal winter flu is also serious and we've seen plenty of those. 

Time for some perspective. I doubt it'll happen.

[Rudy]

1 hour ago, boltondiver said:

Possibly both

As F5 will tell you; Microbes know no borders

Thought Boris was putting a big fucking border wall up to stop any Johnny Foreigners in? BORIS OUT

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Rudy’s Message said:

 But if he’s not been abroad, and they believe they’ve caught everyone who has been in an effected area does it seem like it’s airborne or some pesky rascals have slipped through the net?

People have slipped through the net. Being airborne doesn’t mean it’s flying around. It just means you can get it without touching anything. Theoretically if close enough to an infected person. How long it survives in air, how long till it drops to ground  etc is not determined. 

But think about it, cases popped up in Italy and Iran and became an outbreak before they even knew about it. The incubation period is 2 days to two weeks. Hundreds of thousands of people coming into the country every month. So one or two have it but don’t know either because they are mild or because they are still incubating. Spread it round. As seen in Italy countries probably won’t pick it up until a serious case rocks up into the healthcare system. It’s possible hundreds of people in this country have it already and don’t know.

[Rudy]

2 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

People have slipped through the net. Being airborne doesn’t mean it’s flying around. It just means you can get it without touching anything. Theoretically if close enough to an infected person. How long it survives in air, how long till it drops to ground  etc is not determined. 

But think about it, cases popped up in Italy and Iran and became an outbreak before they even knew about it. The incubation period is 2 days to two weeks. Hundreds of thousands of people coming into the country every month. So one or two have it but don’t know either because they are mild or because they are still incubating. Spread it round. As seen in Italy countries probably won’t pick it up until a serious case rocks up into the healthcare system. It’s possible hundreds of people in this country have it already and don’t know.

Fair enough. 
I still the media is causing hysteria about it, but there’s something very unsettling about it. 

[Winchester White]

Just seen a video on Facebook that shows the chinks dumping thousands of pigs into a huge ditch, what's that all about?

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Fair enough. 
I still the media is causing hysteria about it, but there’s something very unsettling about it. 

I agree on both points. The problem is that the need to contain it to help out health systems means there is plenty of alarmist stuff to report. But clearly this thing won’t be contained so it is worrying.

[kent_white]

Wash your hands is the best advice I can give you. Since I've been nursing I've got far fewer coughs, colds and viruses, despite being surrounded them all day. It's because I have to wash my hands 50 odd times a day.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 hours ago, Spider said:

I’ll go big here and say there’ll be at least 50 new cases in the UK by next friday

I'll see you and go another 50. At least 100 new ones by Friday.

[birch-chorley]

2 hours ago, paulhanley said:

More than anything this whole episode is another illustration of the way people over-react to absolutely everything these days. The irresponsible media are partially culpable for this (and I say that as an ex journalist) but you only have to look at Twitter to see how people enjoy drama in their lives at the expense of quiet common sense.

Coronavirus is a serious business - but an epidemic of normal winter flu is also serious and we've seen plenty of those. 

Time for some perspective. I doubt it'll happen.

I’m sorry but I think you’ve gone too far the other way here 

Normal winter flu is serious, but you don’t need to build a hospital from scratch in a week to deal with it. This virus is clearly capable of hospitalising many more people than ‘winter flu’. Many hospitals worldwide struggle to deal with Winter Flu anyway, let alone this if it was left unchecked 

Are China overreacting? It would be very unlike them to take a huge economic hit due to an overreaction. The containment measures they are taking are way beyond anything ever done for winter flu and it’s looking like the right thing to do, most other developing countries are following suit. 

What’s happened in Wuhan is exactly what can happen all over the world if governments don’t react in the way that they are doing, the media are just reporting it. 

[Casino]

It's a mass over reaction

Lets say 50% of my workforce decides to self isolate

I'm not talking arty farty office wankers who wouldnt be missed if they didnt turn in, these are proper jobs

We wouldn't get through it

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, Casino said:

It's a mass over reaction

Lets say 50% of my workforce decides to self isolate

I'm not talking arty farty office wankers who wouldnt be missed if they didnt turn in, these are proper jobs

We wouldn't get through it

Why would they self isolate?

Unless they've come into contact with someone who has got it or visited an area that the government says necessitates it, they shouldn't be.

[Mannyroader]

4 hours ago, Winchester White said:

Just seen a video on Facebook that shows the chinks dumping thousands of pigs into a huge ditch, what's that all about?

Swine fever; it has been on the go in China for about 12 months. It does not transmit to humans. China has to import most of its pork now and that is a lot of pork.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Mannyroader

[birch-chorley]

1 hour ago, Casino said:

It's a mass over reaction

Lets say 50% of my workforce decides to self isolate

I'm not talking arty farty office wankers who wouldnt be missed if they didnt turn in, these are proper jobs

We wouldn't get through it

Flip side, everyone goes about their usual business and this Virus spreads like it has in Wuhan 

50% of your workforce are off I’ll, 10% of them in a hospital (or a makeshift one in some random hotel function room as the local Hospital has no beds) 

I’d wager that the Chinese government along with all the others who have followed suit know what they are doing when they are shutting stuff down to slow down the spread of it