Is it fair to say we’re in the same place now, Italy was in a fortnight ago?

34 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Is it fair to say we’re in the same place now, Italy was in a fortnight ago?

Possibly

Hopefully we are better equipped as we have more knowledge

37 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Is it fair to say we’re in the same place now, Italy was in a fortnight ago?

Not sure on that. Italy may have a hundred thousand cases they didn't know about. I suspect we don't - not in that volume. But we'll see.

The thing that I am currently struggling to get my head around is how China seems to be getting to the other side of the crisis 

The infected levels hit a plateau at about 80k cases and they are now seeing less new cases than many other countries 

With a population of over 1bn it’s only a small % of the overall population that have tested positive for the infection. If you pro rata that to the U.K. then we would only expect to see circa 4k confirmed cases in the U.K. 

Seems a disconnect vs the government worst case forecasts 

 

The Chinese have a vaccine but they don’t want to share it out.

Its all part of the master plan....

8 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

The thing that I am currently struggling to get my head around is how China seems to be getting to the other side of the crisis 

The infected levels hit a plateau at about 80k cases and they are now seeing less new cases than many other countries 

With a population of over 1bn it’s only a small % of the overall population that have tested positive for the infection. If you pro rata that to the U.K. then we would only expect to see circa 4k confirmed cases in the U.K. 

Seems a disconnect vs the government worst case forecasts 

 

Where are their numbers from though? Direct from the Chinese Government or official figures from the WHO?

7 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Where are their numbers from though? Direct from the Chinese Government or official figures from the WHO?

Pete Townshend's lot. A man whose research can never be doubted

1 minute ago, deane koontz said:

Pete Townshend's lot. A man whose research can never be doubted

Oh Pete, where’s the book?

We are witnessing the collapse of globalisation

1 minute ago, Roger_Dubuis said:

We are witnessing the collapse of globalisation

 

1 minute ago, Roger_Dubuis said:

We are witnessing the collapse of globalisation

Fuck it, I’m having a pint, then

5 minutes ago, Roger_Dubuis said:

We are witnessing the collapse of globalisation

Oh dear.....

We're witnessing a pandemic that has been coming for decades. We're overdue. We can just be thankful that this one has the binding protein that makes it very easy to infect humans as opposed to say SARS - imagine SARS' death rate with this level of infectiousness. 

This is simply an inevitable non-human pathogen making the jump and causing issues. Nothing at all to do with globalisation. 

49 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Possibly

Hopefully we are better equipped as we have more knowledge

LETS GET CORONA VIRUS DONE

26 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

The thing that I am currently struggling to get my head around is how China seems to be getting to the other side of the crisis 

The infected levels hit a plateau at about 80k cases and they are now seeing less new cases than many other countries 

With a population of over 1bn it’s only a small % of the overall population that have tested positive for the infection. If you pro rata that to the U.K. then we would only expect to see circa 4k confirmed cases in the U.K. 

Seems a disconnect vs the government worst case forecasts 

 

They quarantined 35 million people and an area the size of England and Wales for weeks, closed schools, business, public gatherings. Restricted millions from leaving their homes (one person per household allowed out every 2 days in some areas), massively reduced transport between major cities outside of the quarantine zone, disinfected streets, made thousands of more hospital beds available, increased medical supply production, reduced taxes on vulnerable businesses, mobilised the army.  

6 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

They quarantined 35 million people and an area the size of England and Wales for weeks, closed schools, business, public gatherings. Restricted millions from leaving their homes (one person per household allowed out every 2 days in some areas), massively reduced transport between major cities outside of the quarantine zone, disinfected streets, made thousands of more hospital beds available, increased medical supply production, reduced taxes on vulnerable businesses, mobilised the army.  

but apart from that, what have the Chinese actually done?

54 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Not sure on that. Italy may have a hundred thousand cases they didn't know about. I suspect we don't - not in that volume. But we'll see.

We've tested a similar amount, so it's probable that we are a few weeks behind them - the sooner we restrict movement, closes schools etc the better, but the government have to weigh up the economic impact too. My guess is that we'll have quarantines and restrictions within a couple of weeks.

 

1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

. My guess is that we'll have quarantines and restrictions within a couple of weeks.

 

I was just saying this to one of my colleagues, I'd not be surprised to see restrictions start by this time next week

1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

We've tested a similar amount, so it's probable that we are a few weeks behind them - the sooner we restrict movement, closes schools etc the better, but the government have to weigh up the economic impact too. My guess is that we'll have quarantines and restrictions within a couple of weeks.

 

Unless you go to the extremes of China its more than likely pointless. The government say there is little evidence that closing schools, or restricting sporting events will have an effect. Hancock said that time and time again last week. And they've said they won't lock down regions.

If we were all like China you could potentially stop this thing - but reality is we're not and therefore whatever they do has to either have a big impact on the progression or don't do it. The other thing is as China starts to re-open its possible the virus just goes again. And if it does - what then?

2 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I was just saying this to one of my colleagues, I'd not be surprised to see restrictions start by this time next week

Restrictions on what? 

My Daughter in Law and Son are now under restrictions not to come in work as from today.

 

Just now, bwfcfan5 said:

Unless you go to the extremes of China its more than likely pointless. The government say there is little evidence that closing schools, or restricting sporting events will have an effect. Hancock said that time and time again last week. And they've said they won't lock down regions.

If we were all like China you could potentially stop this thing - but reality is we're not and therefore whatever they do has to either have a big impact on the progression or don't do it. The other thing is as China starts to re-open its possible the virus just goes again. And if it does - what then?

Agree, likely to rise again in another region of China as the restrictions are relaxed, going to be a roller-coaster ride I think 

1 minute ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Restrictions on what? 

sporting events, cinemas, museums, concerts, travel, attending hospital for other illnesses etc

8 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Unless you go to the extremes of China its more than likely pointless. The government say there is little evidence that closing schools, or restricting sporting events will have an effect. Hancock said that time and time again last week. And they've said they won't lock down regions.

If we were all like China you could potentially stop this thing - but reality is we're not and therefore whatever they do has to either have a big impact on the progression or don't do it. The other thing is as China starts to re-open its possible the virus just goes again. And if it does - what then?

Hancock is taking advice from Chris Whitty isn't he?  has he said anything about not quarantining areas yet?

6 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

Hancock is taking advice from Chris Whitty isn't he?  has he said anything about not quarantining areas yet?

I'm fairly sure the government said a week or two back that they wouldn't lock down entire regions as China have done regardless.....

It’s a stark choice;

Try to keep the economy going or save older folks 

Its a political decision that no one wants, but has to be taken.

A responsible Government has to look to save it’s people.

6 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

I'm fairly sure the government said a week or two back that they wouldn't lock down entire regions as China have done regardless.....

Hancock has just said " we are not at this stage proposing the cancelation of mass events" he went on to suggest that doing it too early is detrimental.  I'm assuming they  must have some number of cases or geographic spread target they think we need to get to before it's effective ??