Knicked off statto on Wednesday Ways, average position of teams left to play

 

Edited February 13, 20233 yr by green genie

 

…..                    Result.    pts accumulated

Port Vale (H)     -   W               3

Portsmouth (A) -    L               3             

Morecambe (A) -    D              4

Ipswich (H) -          W              7

Sheffield (A) -         L               7

Exeter (A) -             D               8

Cambridge (H) -     W             11

Oxford (A) -            W             14

Burton (H) -            D              15

Shrewsbury (H) -   W             18

Accrington (H) -    W             21

Fleetwood (H)-     W             24

Bristol (A) -            W.            27

 

So even if we only lose 2 more games this season, and go undefeated in our last 8.
We might only end up on 86 points which might be enough , but I reckon it’s likely we would need closer to 90pts to get autos, as Sheffield and Plymouth only need 22 points from 14/15 games to hit that mark.  
 

In a nutshell I’m pretty much resigned to the fact we will be in the playoffs. We’re good enough to get there comfortably on current form but not good enough to make up the points deficit on the top 2 because despite winning 5 in a row prior to Wycombe away, we’ve had too many of those sorts of performances this season, which makes me think we will probably lose another 3 or 4 games.

I’d back us to win at Wembley but the prospect of facing Derby home and away for the knockout round doesn’t fill me with confidence 

12 minutes ago, Mantra said:

 

…..                    Result.    pts accumulated

Port Vale (H)     -   W               3

Portsmouth (A) -    L               3             

Morecambe (A) -    D              4

Ipswich (H) -          W              7

Sheffield (A) -         L               7

Exeter (A) -             D               8

Cambridge (H) -     W             11

Oxford (A) -            W             14

Burton (H) -            D              15

Shrewsbury (H) -   W             18

Accrington (H) -    W             21

Fleetwood (H)-     W             24

Bristol (A) -            W.            27

 

So even if we only lose 2 more games this season, and go undefeated in our last 8.
We might only end up on 86 points which might be enough , but I reckon it’s likely we would need closer to 90pts to get autos, as Sheffield and Plymouth only need 22 points from 14/15 games to hit that mark.  
 

In a nutshell I’m pretty much resigned to the fact we will be in the playoffs. We’re good enough to get there comfortably on current form but not good enough to make up the points deficit on the top 2 because despite winning 5 in a row prior to Wycombe away, we’ve had too many of those sorts of performances this season, which makes me think we will probably lose another 3 or 4 games.

I’d back us to win at Wembley but the prospect of facing Derby home and away for the knockout round doesn’t fill me with confidence 

Ditto.

I just think we are still too weak away from home, people like to point out Barnsley and Peterborough away, but Barnsley was an early red card and Peterborough was most likely a freak result.

Look at top 8 currently, bar Barnsley, we haven't won away at any of them, hardly picked up a point.

And our home record against them isn't too much better at all

Sheff Weds- L (0 points)

Plymouth - LD (1 point)

Ipswich - D (1 point)

Derby - DL (1 point) 

Barnsley - DW (4 points)

Wycombe - WL (3 points)

Shrewsbury - L (0 points)

Still got Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away but hardly fills you with confidence does it. I know play offs are a lottery and I'm hoping if we do make the top 6, that we turn up in the 2 legs at least. 

 

5 minutes ago, Lostock Whites said:

Ditto.

I just think we are still too weak away from home, people like to point out Barnsley and Peterborough away, but Barnsley was an early red card and Peterborough was most likely a freak result.

Look at top 8 currently, bar Barnsley, we haven't won away at any of them, hardly picked up a point.

And our home record against them isn't too much better at all

Sheff Weds- L (0 points)

Plymouth - LD (1 point)

Ipswich - D (1 point)

Derby - DL (1 point) 

Barnsley - DW (4 points)

Wycombe - WL (3 points)

Shrewsbury - L (0 points)

Still got Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away but hardly fills you with confidence does it. I know play offs are a lottery and I'm hoping if we do make the top 6, that we turn up in the 2 legs at least. 

 

Points on the board is the most important stat, but performance wise you could argue we were the better side v Plymouth both games, edged the Derby game at home, shot ourselves in the foot at Shrewsbury and had enough chances in the first 20 minutes at Wycombe to be 3-0 up.

If we get into the playoffs it depends on who turns up. We are capable of playing well and beating the top sides, as they are against us too. 

First thing is to pick up another 25 or so points and ensure we get a playoff spot.

4 hours ago, Lostock Whites said:

Ditto.

I just think we are still too weak away from home, people like to point out Barnsley and Peterborough away, but Barnsley was an early red card and Peterborough was most likely a freak result.

Look at top 8 currently, bar Barnsley, we haven't won away at any of them, hardly picked up a point.

And our home record against them isn't too much better at all

Sheff Weds- L (0 points)

Plymouth - LD (1 point)

Ipswich - D (1 point)

Derby - DL (1 point) 

Barnsley - DW (4 points)

Wycombe - WL (3 points)

Shrewsbury - L (0 points)

Still got Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away but hardly fills you with confidence does it. I know play offs are a lottery and I'm hoping if we do make the top 6, that we turn up in the 2 legs at least. 

 

Cup half empty…

4 hours ago, BeeversLeftPeg said:

Points on the board is the most important stat, but performance wise you could argue we were the better side v Plymouth both games, edged the Derby game at home, shot ourselves in the foot at Shrewsbury and had enough chances in the first 20 minutes at Wycombe to be 3-0 up.

If we get into the playoffs it depends on who turns up. We are capable of playing well and beating the top sides, as they are against us too. 

First thing is to pick up another 25 or so points and ensure we get a playoff spot.

Cup half full…👍🏻

2 hours ago, Steejay said:

Cup half empty…

Cup half full…👍🏻

Whether your cup is half empty or half full, having the 'better chances' or 'edging it out' will not get us promoted, results will, and my point is what ever way you choose to look at it, we have struggled to beat the teams around us, which we will have to do at some point. 

Away League table - Barnsley top??

7 hours ago, Lostock Whites said:

Ditto.

I just think we are still too weak away from home, people like to point out Barnsley and Peterborough away, but Barnsley was an early red card and Peterborough was most likely a freak result.

Look at top 8 currently, bar Barnsley, we haven't won away at any of them, hardly picked up a point.

And our home record against them isn't too much better at all

Sheff Weds- L (0 points)

Plymouth - LD (1 point)

Ipswich - D (1 point)

Derby - DL (1 point) 

Barnsley - DW (4 points)

Wycombe - WL (3 points)

Shrewsbury - L (0 points)

Still got Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away but hardly fills you with confidence does it. I know play offs are a lottery and I'm hoping if we do make the top 6, that we turn up in the 2 legs at least. 

 

Some reasonable stuff, but dismissing the Peterborough as most likely a freak result, is adjusting facts a touch to suit your point.

I could say that as we only list by 1 goal at Wycombe, we must now be better than Derby who lost there 3-1. That would be silly though.

Plus, those results against the big boys were prior to the window, and we've strengthened since. 

It's is without doubt something which we have to address, and may well cost us the chance of automatic promotion, but if we assess the points gained post and pre window at the end of the season, I'll hazard a guess that the post figures will be something akin to automatic promotion form.

1 hour ago, bwfc2003 said:

Away League table - Barnsley top??

2nd really - Sheff Wed same points from 2 games less.  Shrewsbury and Fleetwood as good as us and Derby away and better than Peterboro, who would have thought that at start of season, fair play to them.

We’ve just rearranged Brizzle home for 25th April giving 3 home games in a week.

55 minutes ago, green genie said:

We’ve just rearranged Brizzle home for 25th April giving 3 home games in a week.

Like a lap of honour, as you'll already be up by then?

5 hours ago, Traf said:

Like a lap of honour, as you'll already be up by then?

Can’t see it being earlier than this new date for Brizzle being a catch up now

36 minutes ago, green genie said:

Can’t see it being earlier than this new date for Brizzle being a catch up now

You'll be fine. 
You almost did it last season and then pissed it this time.
I wouldn't be too upset if we did similar.

6 hours ago, green genie said:

We’ve just rearranged Brizzle home for 25th April giving 3 home games in a week.

Similar to us we have 3 straight home games that week, great opportunity for 9 points and hopefully (in both our cases) is enough to mean we avoid final day anxiety

8 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

Similar to us we have 3 straight home games that week, great opportunity for 9 points and hopefully (in both our cases) is enough to mean we avoid final day anxiety

Hopefully, don’t really fancy Port Vale for noon on the Sunday 

Things start to liven up a bit this afternoon with 6 of top 9 playing each other 

Could do with Shrewsbury , who only have the remotest of chances of making the play offs getting a result at home to  Wycombe , who on paper have In my opinion the easiest of run ins.

Barnsley v Derby - think a draw would be the best result from our perspective 

Then there is Peterborough v Plymouth. After only drawing at home to Fleetwood last week and only beating Cheltenham in midweek on penalties, were Plymouth not to win today then you start to wonder if that second automatic spot is  still up for grabs ? 

Especially as their following 3 games are Charlton (h) Derby (h) Barnsley (a) 

 

What a shit show that was.

Boss has been like a little kid with at Xmas with loads of new toys since January making 6-8 changes a game 

Needs to decide on a settled back 3 sharpish with Scarr and Bolton our best defenders back from injury soon

Missing the under appreciated defensive work Randall does as well 

1 hour ago, green genie said:

What a shit show that was.

Boss has been like a little kid with at Xmas with loads of new toys since January making 6-8 changes a game 

Needs to decide on a settled back 3 sharpish with Scarr and Bolton our best defenders back from injury soon

Missing the under appreciated defensive work Randall does as well 

I wouldn’t worry too much because we were shit yesterday as well after the semi final.

we both have three tough games coming up (in fact we have 4) and get through these and you’ll make the automatic and we will be in the playoffs- if you slip up and we do well we still have a chance of finishing above you.

think Barnsley will come second though but they have the hardest run in

 

It’s actually in Barnsley’s hands as we go there in two weeks time 

1 hour ago, green genie said:

What a shit show that was.

Boss has been like a little kid with at Xmas with loads of new toys since January making 6-8 changes a game 

Needs to decide on a settled back 3 sharpish with Scarr and Bolton our best defenders back from injury soon

Missing the under appreciated defensive work Randall does as well 

Twitchy bottom time for your lads. Still favourites, but it’s going to be closer than anticipated.

Barnsley have 2 games a week for rest of the season , which for them if in form, but as fatigue and injuries kick will be really tough. 
 

Ipswich couple of easier games then a run of tough games, starting with us. 
 

Sheff Weds ploughing on and Plymouth in box seat but we just need to keep winning and hope they slip up 

13 minutes ago, Ani said:

Barnsley have 2 games a week for rest of the season , which for them if in form, but as fatigue and injuries kick will be really tough. 
 

Ipswich couple of easier games then a run of tough games, starting with us. 
 

Sheff Weds ploughing on and Plymouth in box seat but we just need to keep winning and hope they slip up 

Barnsley are flying, but these are their March fixtures. If they finish top 2 after them, fair play to them.

55 minutes ago, globaldiver said:

Twitchy bottom time for your lads. Still favourites, but it’s going to be closer than anticipated.

It was last week got me nervous. Thought our run of games against bottom half would make up for points lost in big aways

We’d have battered Fleetwood with Whittaker and Ennis. Hopefully latter will be back next week 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
 

As turned into Statto corner

 

Up until the Papa John's final, we play twice and Barnsley play 5 times. Their five games are not easy. 

They pull back three games on us but can see 6-7 points Max

Edited March 4, 20233 yr by Arrested development

12 minutes ago, Arrested development said:

Up until the Papa John's final, we play twice and Barnsley play 5 times. Their five games are not easy. 

They pull back three games on us but can see 6-7 points Max

I think at this point our focus just needs to be on the team in 7th place, 2nd is out of the question now, we have had plenty of opportunities and we've fell short. We're making great progress having only come up 2 seasons ago, first season was stability, second was top 6, next year I think autos from the start.

Personally whether it's 3rd or 6th it doesn't really matter too much imo, Ipswich wouldn't be any harder than facing Derby for example.

10 games left, let's just get as many points as we can, secure top 6, have a great day out at Wembley and bring back a trophy.

Then we go for it in the playoffs, whoever we face, it's a lottery. 

Edited March 4, 20233 yr by Lostock Whites