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Wanderers Ways. Neil Thompson 1961-2021

Crypto Currency


birch-chorley

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Sideways price action over the last month, but last couple of days would definitely freak out any newcomers which is why I said if anyone is wanting to buy in, don't just FOMO in. If Bitcoin drops 10%, the alt coins drop by even more. I still think we will trend higher from now until 2022, possibly mid 2022 but might take out some profits in the short term if weakness continues.

If BTC continues to drop, it should find support around the £42,000 (8 week moving average) and failing that, £35k-36k (20-21 week moving average). Important to remember 20%+ drops are common in crypto. Have to be flexible in your mindset of the market and not be too deterministic. Hopefully NovemBear has a more positive second half :).

Screenshot-2021-11-16-at-22-12-11.png

Price candles aren't shown on this chart, only some indicators.

The 3 coloured lines are different daily EMAs (exponential moving averages). Blue is the 7 day EMA, the Red is the 30 day EMA and the orange is the 50 day EMA. This essentially tracks momentum. When the 7 day crosses above the other two we get a bullish signal. However if it crosses below you get a bearish signal. If we go bearish then I'll probably take profits, and this seems likely unless price rallies in the next 24-48hrs.

Below the price chart is volume. Showing pretty low volume at the moment. So doesn't appear to be a mass sell off.

Bottom indicator is essentially how strong the price action is. It's touching 50 now which is a good place for a bounce but you can see it has dipped as far as 25/30 before.

 

Edited by Mantra
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8 hours ago, Mantra said:

Sideways price action over the last month, but last couple of days would definitely freak out any newcomers which is why I said if anyone is wanting to buy in, don't just FOMO in. If Bitcoin drops 10%, the alt coins drop by even more. I still think we will trend higher from now until 2022, possibly mid 2022 but might take out some profits in the short term if weakness continues.

If BTC continues to drop, it should find support around the £42,000 (8 week moving average) and failing that, £35k-36k (20-21 week moving average). Important to remember 20%+ drops are common in crypto. Have to be flexible in your mindset of the market and not be too deterministic. Hopefully NovemBear has a more positive second half :).

Screenshot-2021-11-16-at-22-12-11.png

Price candles aren't shown on this chart, only some indicators.

The 3 coloured lines are different daily EMAs (exponential moving averages). Blue is the 7 day EMA, the Red is the 30 day EMA and the orange is the 50 day EMA. This essentially tracks momentum. When the 7 day crosses above the other two we get a bullish signal. However if it crosses below you get a bearish signal. If we go bearish then I'll probably take profits, and this seems likely unless price rallies in the next 24-48hrs.

Below the price chart is volume. Showing pretty low volume at the moment. So doesn't appear to be a mass sell off.

Bottom indicator is essentially how strong the price action is. It's touching 50 now which is a good place for a bounce but you can see it has dipped as far as 25/30 before.

 

I admire you’re enthusiasm and input but is a lot of it not just guess work? I’ve been following many “experts” over the last 5 years and I could probably count on 1 hand the amount of predictions (literally 1000s) which have come in.

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6 hours ago, royal white said:

I admire you’re enthusiasm and input but is a lot of it not just guess work? I’ve been following many “experts” over the last 5 years and I could probably count on 1 hand the amount of predictions (literally 1000s) which have come in.

It's a good question - I would never claim to be an "expert" and price predictions are tricky.  People use predictions to try and clout farm, which is why there are 1000s of them because everyone wants to be that one person that can go "AHA I was right! I told you so! Follow me!"

When I say - "if BTC continues to drop we should find support at this level", it doesn't mean that HAS to play out, so in a way you're right - it is guess work, but you're basing your guesses off data. Typically, in an uptrend BTC has found support on the 8week MA and failing that the 20-21week MA. It doesn't mean, every time we dip we have to hit those levels but they're good levels to watch to determine market strength.

Markets are random because they're based on human emotion, every price candle is someone behind a screen pressing buy or sell. With technical analysis you're just trying to give yourself higher or lower probabilities of what direction we're heading in based on those movements.

You can never really expect something to play out 100%. But what you can do is implement a strategy based on TA. For example that momentum indicator. You can buy whenever it signals bullish and sell whenever it signals bearish. There might be the odd time you break even or make a loss when it gets choppy but over the long term it will see you in profit as long as you stick to the strategy and don't get too greedy.

There's a ton of noise in crypto - so many price predictions, so many indicators and opinions. Analysis paralysis is a real thing where you get tied up in knots trying to figure out what's going on, which again makes it important to have a simple strategy to stick to.

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3 hours ago, Mantra said:

It's a good question - I would never claim to be an "expert" and price predictions are tricky.  People use predictions to try and clout farm, which is why there are 1000s of them because everyone wants to be that one person that can go "AHA I was right! I told you so! Follow me!"

When I say - "if BTC continues to drop we should find support at this level", it doesn't mean that HAS to play out, so in a way you're right - it is guess work, but you're basing your guesses off data. Typically, in an uptrend BTC has found support on the 8week MA and failing that the 20-21week MA. It doesn't mean, every time we dip we have to hit those levels but they're good levels to watch to determine market strength.

Markets are random because they're based on human emotion, every price candle is someone behind a screen pressing buy or sell. With technical analysis you're just trying to give yourself higher or lower probabilities of what direction we're heading in based on those movements.

You can never really expect something to play out 100%. But what you can do is implement a strategy based on TA. For example that momentum indicator. You can buy whenever it signals bullish and sell whenever it signals bearish. There might be the odd time you break even or make a loss when it gets choppy but over the long term it will see you in profit as long as you stick to the strategy and don't get too greedy.

There's a ton of noise in crypto - so many price predictions, so many indicators and opinions. Analysis paralysis is a real thing where you get tied up in knots trying to figure out what's going on, which again makes it important to have a simple strategy to stick to.

It was by no means a criticism and I do enjoy your posts, they make good reading and you would think they should make sense…..but it’s crypto! 😂 do you do regular posts elsewhere that I could keep an eye on? 

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38 minutes ago, royal white said:

It was by no means a criticism and I do enjoy your posts, they make good reading and you would think they should make sense…..but it’s crypto! 😂 do you do regular posts elsewhere that I could keep an eye on? 

Haha I didn’t take it as one! I think you’re right to be skeptical because with crypto there’s so much hype and bullshit, it’s hard to take anything seriously and it probably does come across as mumbo jumbo, wishy washy at times depending on who you listen to. No one knows what’s going to happen so best we can do is play the probabilities and hope for the best.

Im part of a trading group which is on a private discord. I post in there with other regulars. Some are much more experienced than me and some are total noobs. So it’s a good place for people to learn and discuss.

I think there’s a free section to the discord but the full thing requires a membership cost.

The guy who runs it goes by The Crypto Jungle on YouTube. He keeps everything simple and does free streams 3 times a week on YouTube and twitch.

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On 17/11/2021 at 17:21, Mantra said:

Haha I didn’t take it as one! I think you’re right to be skeptical because with crypto there’s so much hype and bullshit, it’s hard to take anything seriously and it probably does come across as mumbo jumbo, wishy washy at times depending on who you listen to. No one knows what’s going to happen so best we can do is play the probabilities and hope for the best.

Im part of a trading group which is on a private discord. I post in there with other regulars. Some are much more experienced than me and some are total noobs. So it’s a good place for people to learn and discuss.

I think there’s a free section to the discord but the full thing requires a membership cost.

The guy who runs it goes by The Crypto Jungle on YouTube. He keeps everything simple and does free streams 3 times a week on YouTube and twitch.

Cheers mate, I’ll have a nosey later 👍

 

To the Moon 😂

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  • 2 weeks later...

This negative price action is a great buying opportunity right now in my opinion. The fear is creeping in, shorts will pile on and could make a perfect storm for a squeeze back up to new all time highs in December or January.

Screenshot-2021-11-27-at-02-37-52.png

Failed to hold the 8 week (white line), so assumption is we come down and test the 20/21 week average price, which is at £36k-38k. Probably a decent risk to reward entry there if you put in a tight stop loss. Everyone blaming the Africa Covid variant but I think that's just people looking for reasons, the indicators have all been flashing bearish for a good few days, such as breaking the 8 week.

See how this plays out now. 

3 decent options in my opinion 

1 - Place some low bids between 36-38k. There's a lot of confluence there but also when everyone expects something like that to happen, it rarely plays out. Could drop further to shake out those waiting on that move. Maybe 34k. (highest risk-reward)

2 - Average in over the next few weeks if you're anticipating a reversal. (medium risk reward)

3 - Wait for the momentum to swing back up and take positions when indicators start showing strength again. (lowest risk reward)

 

I guess the fourth option is to short everything or don't get involved at all. But where's the fun in that. I think we'll be looking back at this in 3 months and the fear will seem ridiculous. Just my opinion, however.

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This Crypto-Nerd posting graphs has no more idea than anyone else, as proven by his "3 options" spiel. Basically, his advice is "Buy or don't buy".
Get back to us in 3 months @Mantra with another graph, when you've got over the "fear".

Edited by Cheese
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4 minutes ago, Traf said:

Thread needs moving to geek corner

There is a thread in Geeks corner but this one was set up first which is why I stuck to this one. I get that most people aren't interested in discussing this topic though so you're probably right keeping it on the other board.

Not sure what I've done to provoke the reaction of @Cheese

I thought my posts might come across as a bit annoying but didn't expect that sort of reaction. I've never claimed to be an expert or have more of a clue than anyone else. My "advice" was actually, buy here, buy there, or wait for more strength to buy - all have different risk:reward. The last paragraph was just a joke.

I'll never come on here and tell people what to do 100% with their money as I'm not qualified to do that and everyone has different risk tolerances. I'm just posting my thoughts based on probabilities and data.

Anyway, I have no issue with you @Cheeseand I can understand that maybe I've come across the wrong way here, I'm sure you're not the only one who has read my posts and thought "what a load of bollocks", so I'll keep my thoughts to myself and/or geeks corner unless someone asks.

Hope you both have good days and enjoy a win for the whites 😃

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2 hours ago, Mantra said:

There is a thread in Geeks corner but this one was set up first which is why I stuck to this one. I get that most people aren't interested in discussing this topic though so you're probably right keeping it on the other board.

Not sure what I've done to provoke the reaction of @Cheese

I thought my posts might come across as a bit annoying but didn't expect that sort of reaction. I've never claimed to be an expert or have more of a clue than anyone else. My "advice" was actually, buy here, buy there, or wait for more strength to buy - all have different risk:reward. The last paragraph was just a joke.

I'll never come on here and tell people what to do 100% with their money as I'm not qualified to do that and everyone has different risk tolerances. I'm just posting my thoughts based on probabilities and data.

Anyway, I have no issue with you @Cheeseand I can understand that maybe I've come across the wrong way here, I'm sure you're not the only one who has read my posts and thought "what a load of bollocks", so I'll keep my thoughts to myself and/or geeks corner unless someone asks.

Hope you both have good days and enjoy a win for the whites 😃

 

Keep posting and tell the pair of miserable cunts to fuck off 👍

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  • 1 month later...
5 hours ago, royal white said:

Does anyone have much knowledge on NFTs? @Mantra I’m guessing you have some idea about them? 

Personally I stay away from them, too subjective to try and figure out what trends are and mostly just governed by which project the crypto influencers want to shill.

You could probably say the same about most cryptocurrencies in themselves but it's next level for NFTs.

Interesting ideas for use cases though, I'm sure they'll be massive in some form of gaming

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