Politics

[Guest]

People's vote deputy chair has dissected the deal against Boris' claims in the commons yesterday. Now sure - people's vote have a large agenda but he's crosslinked everything to the relevant section in the Bill - so there isn't any dispute - Boris yesterday really did tell a bunch of lies. 

Full thread here - 

Higlights - 

Quote

He said “there can be no regression” from the rights workers currently enjoy. Not true. WAB merely says government must tell MPs if workers are going to lose their rights. See Schedule 5A, Part 1, Clause (1)(b) 2/

Johnson said on Northern Ireland "default position is alignment with the UK". Untrue. Default position is alignment with the EU. ( Article 18, para 5 of the revised Irish protocol). 4/

There are no checks GB-NI." Uh-oh. Government’s own impact assessment says: Goods moving fromGB to NI will have to "complete both import declarations and Entry Summary (ENS) Declarations This will result in additional admin costs to businesses.” (See para 241.) 5/

PM added there was “absolutely no provision for the EU to have a say” on whether NI leaves arrangements. False. Revised protocol says: “Any subsequent agreement between the Union and the UK shall indicate the parts of this Protocol which it supersedes.” See Article 13 (8). 6/

Now for fishy promises. He told MPs "we will take back 100% control of [our] spectacular marine wealth ”. But political declaration says UK and EU should try to “establish a new fisheries agreement on, inter alia, access to waters and quota shares” by next July (paras 73, 74) 8/

 

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by bwfcfan5

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 hours ago, Escobarp said:

I agree with you he is now holding it up for his political gain. He is using t wrongly in my opinion to further ram home the point but two wrongs don’t make a right 

He should have got on with it 

I'm inclined to agree, bit is clear that wrecking amendments could still be tabled. Not sure they'd pass, but even others could potentially delay. Can't really blame him for wanting an election and hopefully a majority, to get it through unscathed.

I quite liked the suggestion by a number of MPs to bring another programme motion to sit for longer, over the weekend etc. They'd get their increased time for scrutiny, and it would indeed be interesting to see who turned up and for how long. After all, as bd points out, they couldn't fill the time allocated yesterday with moans.

Hints/suggestions last night that talks would possibly lead to a new programme motion with an agreed amount of time so that it passes.

Guess we'll see.

 

[Guest]

So it seems as though Corbyn and Johnson are meeting to agree a new programme motion timetable. 

More gameplaying or yet another BJ u-turn?

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

So it seems as though Corbyn and Johnson are meeting to agree a new programme motion timetable. 

More gameplaying or yet another BJ u-turn?

Corbyn continuing to be a dick? Which doesn’t ever seem to come in your heed! 

[Jol_BWFC]

Terribly sad to see the news about the 39 people who died in the lorry. Rightly so, it should have its own thread.
 

One thing it does raise in the context of this thread is that clearly some people are willing to go via Ireland and NI to get into Great Britain. That’s even before we leave the EU.
 

There were numerous posts on here a few months back, scoffing at the idea that our borders would be at risk without any checks at NI, because “nobody would bother going via NI to get into Great Britain”. It looks like that was misplaced. 

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

Corbyn continuing to be a dick? Which doesn’t ever seem to come in your heed! 

Labour made a public offer of 7-9 days to get the bill through. 

Of course Corbyn is an idiot - the issue is that the government have this in their power - yet want to play a game of delay.

Boris Johnson is just lying and refusing to come close to answer a question here at PMQs. The reason he cannot have a delay is that these questions on the deal need answering. 

[Guest]

"There will be no checks between Northern Ireland and GB" says the PM to Corbyn - but he knows there will, for the first time be Export Summary Declarations, required under EU law, as a result of the new deal.

Can we just call this for what it is? An out and out lie. 

[Guest]

So what do people think - election this year or not?

I think its pretty much 50:50 now. There are realistically only 2 dates 5th and 12th December (and NATO summit might rule out 5th December). You could get 28th if parliament was dissolved tomorrow but I'm not even sure that is possible now given need the proclamation from the queen with a date then washup - so 5th or more likely 12th December.

So by my calculation parliament needs to be dissolved by 7th November to get an election this calendar year. 

Next two weeks. And that is ONLY if mechanism is via FTPA and a 2/3 majority. If they try to introduce a bill so they only need a simple majority then that adds time on - because needs to get through Lords. If they try VONC then you add two weeks onto the process for a government to form. Which essentially means that route - if triggered almost certainly leads to January - and it would have to be late January probably to allow for campaigning. 

[Mounts Kipper]

3 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said:

People's vote deputy chair has dissected the deal against Boris' claims in the commons yesterday. Now sure - people's vote have a large agenda but he's crosslinked everything to the relevant section in the Bill - so there isn't any dispute - Boris yesterday really did tell a bunch of lies. 

Full thread here - 

Higlights - 

 

Peoples vote now irrelevant hope they fuck off and are never heard of again. 

[Spider]

1 hour ago, Jol_BWFC said:

Terribly sad to see the news about the 39 people who died in the lorry. Rightly so, it should have its own thread.
 

One thing it does raise in the context of this thread is that clearly some people are willing to go via Ireland and NI to get into Great Britain. That’s even before we leave the EU.
 

There were numerous posts on here a few months back, scoffing at the idea that our borders would be at risk without any checks at NI, because “nobody would bother going via NI to get into Great Britain”. It looks like that was misplaced. 

 

I mentioned this and several replies dismissed it as a preposterous idea.

The lorry won’t be checked at Holyhead as it’s come from NI.

If the container landed in the Republic of Ireland from an EU origin, it won’t be checked.

Anyone thinking a determined enough people smuggler won’t take this opportunity is, well, preposterous.

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Peoples vote now irrelevant hope they fuck off and are never heard of again. 

Well the points he makes about the lies are not irrelevant. They are all demonstrated with X-ref to the relevant section in the bill.

You know - facts and details. 

Have you considered the content or do you only listen to people who tell you what you want to hear?

Edited October 23, 2019 by bwfcfan5

[Escobarp]

1 hour ago, bwfcfan5 said:

So what do people think - election this year or not?

I think its pretty much 50:50 now. There are realistically only 2 dates 5th and 12th December (and NATO summit might rule out 5th December). You could get 28th if parliament was dissolved tomorrow but I'm not even sure that is possible now given need the proclamation from the queen with a date then washup - so 5th or more likely 12th December.

So by my calculation parliament needs to be dissolved by 7th November to get an election this calendar year. 

Next two weeks. And that is ONLY if mechanism is via FTPA and a 2/3 majority. If they try to introduce a bill so they only need a simple majority then that adds time on - because needs to get through Lords. If they try VONC then you add two weeks onto the process for a government to form. Which essentially means that route - if triggered almost certainly leads to January - and it would have to be late January probably to allow for campaigning. 

There will only be an election if Corbyn is removed as leader as that is the only way that labour will think they stand a chance. 

I listened to lord hayne this morning the labour peer. Basically said that no general election due to the gulf in the polling figures. Said labour want a 2nd referendum. 

 

Interviewer stated but there’s no majority for a 2nd ref in parliament. So the only way it changes is an election 

his response. Yes we know there is no majority for 2nd ref but no general election for labour at this time. 

If thats not wasting time and blocking parliament I don’t know what is. They want an option that they can’t get and the only way to get to that option they won’t allow. Go figure 

but im sure someone much more educated than me (in their own minds I must add) will point out how I’m wrong here 

Edited October 23, 2019 by Escobarp

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said:

"There will be no checks between Northern Ireland and GB" says the PM to Corbyn - but he knows there will, for the first time be Export Summary Declarations, required under EU law, as a result of the new deal.

Can we just call this for what it is? An out and out lie. 

That depends if  you're incapable of differentiating between a check and a document (electronic I would presume, though maybe paper).

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

There will only be an election if Corbyn is removed as leader as that is the only way that labour will think they stand a chance. 

I listened to lord hayne this morning the labour peer. Basically said that no general election due to the gulf in the polling figures. Said labour want a 2nd referendum. 

 

Interviewer stated but there’s no majority for a 2nd ref in parliament. So the only way it changes is an election 

his response. Yes we know there is no majority for 2nd ref but no general election for labour at this time. 

If thats not wasting time and blocking parliament I don’t know what is. They want an option that they can’t get and the only way to get to that option they won’t allow. Go figure 

but im sure someone much more educated than me (in their own minds I must add) will point out how I’m wrong here 

Well forget Labour a minute. SNP want one. Lib Dems want one. So in theory - Boris can introduce a one line bill - get around the FTPA and just needs a majority of one vote. Which given the two parties mentioned openly say they want one he can achieve. Now its a question of how long it would take to do that. And whether its this year or next I guess. 

[Sweep]

5 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

There will only be an election if Corbyn is removed as leader as that is the only way that labour will think they stand a chance. 

I listened to lord hayne this morning the labour peer. Basically said that no general election due to the gulf in the polling figures. Said labour want a 2nd referendum. 

 

Interviewer stated but there’s no majority for a 2nd ref in parliament. So the only way it changes is an election 

his response. Yes we know there is no majority for 2nd ref but no general election for labour at this time. 

Ifntjats not eating time and blocking parliament I don’t know what is. They want an option that they can’t get and the only way to get to that option they won’t allow. Go figure 

but im sure someone much more educated than me (in their own minds I must add) will point out how I’m wrong here 

Labour are an utter farce, I don't like Johnson in the slightest, but if there is a GE in the near future, I can see him wiping the floor with Corbyn.....although I thought May would last time, and she managed to fuck that right up

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

That depends if  you're incapable of differentiating between a check and a document (electronic I would presume, though maybe paper).

Well the NI secretary said there would be "checks but we'll try and keep them to a minimum". So one government minister with responsibility for NI says there will be. The Brexit secretary had to admit there will be. But even after that Johnson says there won't be....we all know there will be.....that's the whole point of the exit declarations....

[Escobarp]

Just now, Sweep said:

Labour are an utter farce, I don't like Johnson in the slightest, but if there is a GE in the near future, I can see him wiping the floor with Corbyn.....although I thought May would last time, and she managed to fuck that right up

Different kettle of fish. Boris wouldn’t make that  mistake or be complacent which if we’re honest is what killed mays election campaign. 

Labour have missed a huge massive opportunity in this last 3 years to establish themselves as the main party in this country. They instead have chosen a leader who is effectively unelectable and has gone out of his way and still does try and prove this fact. But it isn’t just him. It’s the entire party every time I listen to one (other than starmer) I just want to scream “how the fuck did you get people to vote for you”. Weapons 

[Escobarp]

5 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Well forget Labour a minute. SNP want one. Lib Dems want one. So in theory - Boris can introduce a one line bill - get around the FTPA and just needs a majority of one vote. Which given the two parties mentioned openly say they want one he can achieve. Now its a question of how long it would take to do that. And whether its this year or next I guess. 

Snp and lib dems say they want one correct. They also will look at the polls. Snp are unique when it comes to their motive. They want more seats and to eradicate labour and tories from Scotland  they don’t care about Westminster as they don’t plan on being their long  

Lib dems. What would they achieve? They would be handing tories a win and squashing any hope of this second referendum or revocation of article 50 which will be the basis of their own manifesto  

[Guest]

Just now, Escobarp said:

Different kettle of fish. Boris wouldn’t make that  mistake or be complacent which if we’re honest is what killed mays election campaign. 

Labour have missed a huge massive opportunity in this last 3 years to establish themselves as the main party in this country. They instead have chosen a leader who is effectively unelectable and has gone out of his way and still does try and prove this fact. But it isn’t just him. It’s the entire party every time I listen to one (other than starmer) I just want to scream “how the fuck did you get people to vote for you”. Weapons 

Labour didn't have an opportunity because May would never have gone for another election - even then I cannot see Labour winning it - probably a no score draw!

There are plenty of good people in Labour, sadly not on the front bench in many cases. I have to chew my hand whenever Lucy Powell opens her mouth. Ian Murray a big Corbyn critic is good - though rather like the Tories they are trying to chuck him out cos he's not nice to Corbyn. Diddums.

Liz Kendall always talks sense even if I don't always agree with her. Also think Harman and Miliband are top drawer politicians. Half of Miliband's manifesto became Tory policy under Theresa May!

As you say on the front bench - Starmer is the best and I think he wipes the floor with the front bench on both sides IMO in terms of intellectual capacity and evidence based argument. Whether you agree with him or not. I disagree with McDonnell a lot but he's a far brighter bulb than Corbyn. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Snp and lib dems say they want one correct. They also will look at the polls. Snp are unique when it comes to their motive. They want more seats and to eradicate labour and tories from Scotland  they don’t care about Westminster as they don’t plan on being their long  

Lib dems. What would they achieve? They would be handing tories a win and squashing any hope of this second referendum or revocation of article 50 which will be the basis of their own manifesto  

Lib Dems will make gains. Considerable gains against Tories and Labour. They will improve on 2017. SNP are way ahead in polls. 

I can't see either turning chance down. Swinson sees her chance to make Lib Dems much larger opposition and SNP are just wanting to push for a 2nd referendum. The SNP chances of winning a referendum on Scottish independence are greatest if a) they control all Scottish seats and b) Boris is in charge - a Labour government makes Scottish yes vote far less likely even if Labour might offer them a chance and ideally c) Brexit hasn't yet happened. 

 

[Escobarp]

11 minutes ago, bwfcfan5 said:

Lib Dems will make gains. Considerable gains against Tories and Labour. They will improve on 2017. SNP are way ahead in polls. 

I can't see either turning chance down. Swinson sees her chance to make Lib Dems much larger opposition and SNP are just wanting to push for a 2nd referendum. The SNP chances of winning a referendum on Scottish independence are greatest if a) they control all Scottish seats and b) Boris is in charge - a Labour government makes Scottish yes vote far less likely even if Labour might offer them a chance and ideally c) Brexit hasn't yet happened. 

 

I agree with most of this. My only issue is the lib dems. 

If jo swinson campaigns on the basis of look I want to be a bigger party so we have more seats and I have better political profile but let’s me honest we aren’t going to win guys so the referndum and revocation simply won’t be happening. Then I think if she’s prepared to do this take the election. 

She will however be campaigning with the goals you clearly outlined. So In my opinion by agreeing to an election she has two choices . Do I look after the interests of the country and block this as I have continually blocked brexit and just make this as difficult for the government as I can knowing I won’t win an election  or do I look for self gain and allow Boris a majority in a general election which renders my two main manifesto pledges redundant. 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

I agree with most of this. My only issue is the lib dems. 

If jo swinson campaigns on the basis of look I want to be a bigger party so we have more seats and I have better political profile but let’s me honest we aren’t going to win guys so the referndum and revocation simply won’t be happening. Then I think if she’s prepared to do this take the election. 

She will however be campaigning with the goals you clearly outlined. So In my opinion by agreeing to an election she has two choices . Do I look after the interests of the country and block this as I have continually blocked brexit and just make this as difficult for the government as I can knowing I won’t win an election  or do I look for self gain and allow Boris a majority in a general election which renders my two main manifesto pledges redundant. 

Ultimately she can't do all that much about the state of Labour and the fact that the Tories currently have an unsplit Brexit vote. But she can only go for the gains she can make - which I think will be plenty. The Lib Dems cannot win an election in our lifetimes statistically barring some massive massive sea change. So ultimately she will press on in an election with the "we want to revoke" campaign and do well. 

If you think about the Lib Dems - their best chance of winning seats is pre Brexit. If the GE is after - their message is likely not to resonate as strongly with their vote. 

[Escobarp]

Just now, bwfcfan5 said:

Ultimately she can't do all that much about the state of Labour and the fact that the Tories currently have an unsplit Brexit vote. But she can only go for the gains she can make - which I think will be plenty. The Lib Dems cannot win an election in our lifetimes statistically barring some massive massive sea change. So ultimately she will press on in an election with the "we want to revoke" campaign and do well. 

If you think about the Lib Dems - their best chance of winning seats is pre Brexit. If the GE is after - their message is likely not to resonate as strongly with their vote. 

Again I agree. And as I say if she’s happy to go to the polls and fill her boots so to speak then I’m all for it. Sooner we have a clearer path forward the better. 

Scotland will be an independent country in short order that for sure. I’m getting myself on rightmove and looking  at nice places to live as I type this!

[miamiwhite]

1 hour ago, Sweep said:

Labour are an utter farce, I don't like Johnson in the slightest, but if there is a GE in the near future, I can see him wiping the floor with Corbyn.....although I thought May would last time, and she managed to fuck that right up

May would somehow contrive to fuck up tying her shoelaces.

[Salford Trotter]

25 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Again I agree. And as I say if she’s happy to go to the polls and fill her boots so to speak then I’m all for it. Sooner we have a clearer path forward the better. 

Scotland will be an independent country in short order that for sure. I’m getting myself on rightmove and looking  at nice places to live as I type this!

Are you coming home mate? Or staying in the EU with Scotland? 😂