Covid-19

[fatolive]

Not sure if anyone caught the Richard Dimbleby lecture on BBC1 just now.  the professor who lead the Oxford vaccine development giving a timeline account including set backs and milestones along the way

 Very interesting and worth a watch. 
 

[Spider]

More and more scientists suggesting Omicron is very mild and will quickly overtake delta as the variant everyone catches.

It takes about 10 weeks to fully understand how much damage a variant causes, but if the hospitalisation and mortality rates are as low as they are right now (virtually zero), then it could well be game over.

Be reet.

[DaisyHWanderer]

4 minutes ago, Spider said:

More and more scientists suggesting Omicron is very mild and will quickly overtake delta as the variant everyone catches.

It takes about 10 weeks to fully understand how much damage a variant causes, but if the hospitalisation and mortality rates are as low as they are right now (virtually zero), then it could well be game over.

Be reet.

Although cases are doubling every 3-4 days in SA. This thread had me concerned, hopefully our higher % vax will slow it down.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1467944178713862146?t=sVq8gQiTSb3itCJSHYh6Yg&s=19

[Youri McAnespie]

9 hours ago, Cheese said:

They are taking the piss.

 

They could piss on folk's kids and be praised for rehydrating them from some, you know this.

Defeffal could get his cock out on a primary school visit and it'd be claimed as an anatomy lecture.

[Mounts Kipper]

15 minutes ago, DaisyHWanderer said:

Although cases are doubling every 3-4 days in SA. This thread had me concerned, hopefully our higher % vax will slow it down.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1467944178713862146?t=sVq8gQiTSb3itCJSHYh6Yg&s=19

Cases doubling isn’t an issue, hospital admissions and deaths I presume are still relatively low in SA they are 5 weeks in so surely the information is out there as to hospital admissions and deaths, the government should be able to use that info to model how the virus will perform here in the uk and act based on that modelling and taking into account our higher vaccine rates. 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Mounts Kipper

[Spider]

1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Cases doubling isn’t an issue, hospital admissions and deaths I presume are still relatively low in SA they are 5 weeks in so surely the information is out there as to hospital admissions and deaths, the government should act based on that info, even though it’s likely going to be worse scenario than what actually happens here. 

The boys I’ve read say ten weeks is a more reasonable time to gain a full picture (seems too short to me but I’m not a scientist).

I think that’s fair.

If after ten weeks this variant isn’t doing any real damage, then we need to lift any restrictions.

[Mounts Kipper]

22 minutes ago, Spider said:

The boys I’ve read say ten weeks is a more reasonable time to gain a full picture (seems too short to me but I’m not a scientist).

I think that’s fair.

If after ten weeks this variant isn’t doing any real damage, then we need to lift any restrictions.

Surely the experts can work it out before 10 weeks, ffs it’s not difficult to look at cases, hospital admissions and deaths. Seems very convenient that 10 weeks takes us nearly to spring. 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Mounts Kipper

[Youri McAnespie]

4 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Surely the experts can work it out before 10 weeks, ffs it’s not difficult to look at cases, hospital admissions and deaths. Seems very convenient that 10 weeks takes us nearly to spring. 

Spring where?

It's fucking brass monkeys here until April.

[Spider]

4 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Surely the experts can work it out before 10 weeks, ffs it’s not difficult to look at cases, hospital admissions and deaths. Seems very convenient that 10 weeks takes us nearly to spring. 

I think they want to see how it interacts with people of all backgrounds - young, old, underlying conditions, vaxxed, unvaxxed, etc…

Bear in mind that in the uk most people are vaxxed which means it will take longer to spread around.

In virus terms, I think ten weeks is nowt.

You can still go to Spain.

[Spider]

There is one potential snag.

It does seem to make some children very poorly.

Now that’s a game changer, and probably a good reason to be cautious for a bit longer.

 

[Mounts Kipper]

7 minutes ago, Spider said:

I think they want to see how it interacts with people of all backgrounds - young, old, underlying conditions, vaxxed, unvaxxed, etc…

Bear in mind that in the uk most people are vaxxed which means it will take longer to spread around.

In virus terms, I think ten weeks is nowt.

You can still go to Spain.

10 weeks were being mugged off. 

[Farrelli]

32 minutes ago, Spider said:

There is one potential snag.

It does seem to make some children very poorly.

Now that’s a game changer, and probably a good reason to be cautious for a bit longer.

 

Dr Mounts has already decided it’s fine. 

[Spider]

45 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

10 weeks were being mugged off. 

I’m no fan of restrictions, but imagine if this variant evades vaccines and is bad for children.

Lets find out eh?

[Spider]

28 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Dr Mounts has already decided it’s fine. 

Anything that affects his sunshine time is automatically a conspiracy directly against him.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 hours ago, Spider said:

There is one potential snag.

It does seem to make some children very poorly.

Now that’s a game changer, and probably a good reason to be cautious for a bit longer.

 

If that turns out to be a 'definite', then we'll see rate of vaccination in kids shoot up.

Jcvi may even change its stance.

[Mounts Kipper]

2 hours ago, Spider said:

I’m no fan of restrictions, but imagine if this variant evades vaccines and is bad for children.

Lets find out eh?

My points is I think they already know what's going on, the info is readily available given SA is 5 weeks ahead of us.   

[Spider]

28 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

My points is I think they already know what's going on, the info is readily available given SA is 5 weeks ahead of us.   

How many cases of Omicron have they had in SA?

[Mounts Kipper]

2 minutes ago, Spider said:

How many cases of Omicron have they had in SA?

16,000 officially however I would suspect its many thousands more.  

[waffer cup 07]

A very small number compared to UK's 40,000 a day delta variant cases, as well as many deaths. No deaths from Omicron.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

33 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

My points is I think they already know what's going on, the info is readily available given SA is 5 weeks ahead of us.   

It seems to need repeating. SA have a much younger age profile than here, which means that whilst information from there is very relevant and useful, information needed to be gathered from here.

From my observations; I'd have thought there would be many more cases here by now, so maybe measures are working in that the spread is being slowed whilst investigations are carried out.

Alternatively (or additionally) it may not be as "spready" as feared.

Whatever the case, we are very much still open and coping well.

[Spider]

Krankie enforcing work from home over the border.

Expect Boris to follow suit in a few days.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

Krankie enforcing work from home over the border.

Expect Boris to follow suit in a few days.

Don't think so.

Possible, but England hasn't had the same depth of restrictions as Wales and Scotland for some time.

As Christmas approaches, folk will be in work less anyway, so may not be necessary. Apparently, respiratory virus infections slow a bit over the Christmas period because of holidays. A surprising little fact brought by some professor or other the other day.

[CambridgeBWFC]

1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

It seems to need repeating. SA have a much younger age profile than here, which means that whilst information from there is very relevant and useful, information needed to be gathered from here.

From my observations; I'd have thought there would be many more cases here by now, so maybe measures are working in that the spread is being slowed whilst investigations are carried out.

Alternatively (or additionally) it may not be as "spready" as feared.

Whatever the case, we are very much still open and coping well.

There are also many other factors (genetic, economic, environmental etc) which makes the direct comparisons less relevant,  Age is just one factor. 

As you say currently we seem to be doing OK and either that is due to our 'restrictions' or something to fo with the virus. But we still need to wait a bit longer and keep gathering the data. 

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 minutes ago, CambridgeBWFC said:

There are also many other factors (genetic, economic, environmental etc) which makes the direct comparisons less relevant,  Age is just one factor. 

As you say currently we seem to be doing OK and either that is due to our 'restrictions' or something to fo with the virus. But we still need to wait a bit longer and keep gathering the data. 

 

Very much my line all the way through when folk loved to make make comparisons with other places.

 

[BobyBrno]

1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Very much my line all the way through when folk loved to make make comparisons with other places.

 

I was in South Africa last year. How anyone can make comparisons with them is beyond me.