peelyfeet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: Just said on the news that hospitals have been told to prepare a secure quarantine areas to house/treat those infected. Does that mean they're expecting a spread here, or just a reassurance to the public? I'd be massively surprised if it doesn't spread all around the world to some extent, but it will likely take longer than most are expecting, it will probably be months before it spikes, and affluent countries like Western Europe/ USA etc will be able to slow it down better, and mortality rates in Europe will probably be lower because of higher existing health standards and better advice / medical support / hygiene standards. It's likely there will be either a vaccine or anti viral medication to help with it in the future but we have no idea how long it will take. The virus will mutate and spread around the world in waves, some of the strains will be less virulent, it will reappear for decades to come - forms of spanish flu from 1918 is still swirling round the world every year, killing thousands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e2e4 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 how many ill folk arent chinese ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 (edited) Are you a virologist or something? Peely that is. Edited February 5, 2020 by Tonge moor green jacket Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, e2e4 said: how many ill folk arent chinese ? less than 250 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: Are you a virologist or something? Peely that is. Biologist in past life if you want balanced info - have a look here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 Excellent, tell us more. Plenty of us scientists (and former) on here. One regret I have is packing in biology at a level. Really enjoyed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Yep expertise always welcome on here. Just don’t go taking facts into the in or out thread. You’ve been warned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 The video is quite informative too. Makes you realise just how quick the medical world can get to grips with things. Top stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 this is also a good balanced opinion - using the lancet and john hopkins university as sources, and then extrapolating from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 The world of medicine development is fascinating and brilliant. When I worked in the textiles dept at UMIST, a colleague who was an absolutely brilliant chemist and leader in his field was starting to look at utilising the chemistry of dyes to attach anti cancer drugs specifically to tumours/infected areas. This would reduce side effects and improve efficacy. Dunno if anything ever became of it, but it was fascinating nonetheless (and way beyond my understanding) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e2e4 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 (edited) the h1n1 thing from a few years back came from pigs , i remember them killing pigs and shoveling them on a jcb on the news while i were eating bacon butties and laughing/gagging at the coinicidence. that seemed worse than this , and i think it killed half a million people , top end.. 54 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: less than 250 with airports and allsorts , seems kinda low . again i remember the 2009 thing being more "kill all the livestock !" etc, in far away places like europe happening pretty fast . This seems to have took ages to not even get out of china in second gear. maybe im watching it different now, but the swine flu thing seemed a lot more urgent especailly from a christendom/NotChina geographic. Edited February 5, 2020 by e2e4 missed a word out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, peelyfeet said: Doesn't work exponentially like that because once it gets widespread into communities, some of the people you come in contact with, would already have had it, and some people wont pass it on to any others because they're asymptomatic or they use hygiene methods / self quarantine to not pass it on. We are already on day 37 (probably more like day 50), and up to 25,000 cases, 491 deaths. If the same pattern continues, and none of the preventative measures work, it could take until April for there to be 491 deaths in the UK. Hundreds, sometimes thousands of people die in the flu season in the UK already. Also it typically takes more than a day before you can pass it on, more like 3 at the earliest, potentially up to 10 days. Fucking hell, I'll factor in that some fucker may have met a carrier but was exhaling as they passed rather than inhaled. The point about doubling up every day wasn't an example of communicable desease control.but an example of how soon you reach a million just each infectios person infecting one more UNINFECTED person the next day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, MickyD said: Fucking hell, I'll factor in that some fucker may have met a carrier but was exhaling as they passed rather than inhaled. The point about doubling up every day wasn't an example of communicable desease control.but an example of how soon you reach a million just each infectios person infecting one more UNINFECTED person the next day. Fair enough, I was just relating what you said to how this virus is panning out. The figures at the moment show that the infection rate is currently increasing by around 20% per day. It will grow at different rates in different areas, depending on how good the medical care is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter only1swanny Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 its gone from 5000 cases to 25000 in 6 days... Had my year 10 class doing some figures with it today after one of them brought the topic up, scary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Winchester White Posted February 5, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 5, 2020 It is the flu, it kills folk, all the time. It just happens this strain appears to be a bit better at spreading than other forms due to it being contagious before showing symptoms. Not sure any conspiracy theories are required just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, only1swanny said: its gone from 5000 cases to 25000 in 6 days... Had my year 10 class doing some figures with it today after one of them brought the topic up, scary The lancet have created a detailed forecast model of estimated infections, and the model shows that there's probably a lot more infected people than the confirmed cases show, more like 250,000 if their model is extrapolated. If this is correct then it may be good in one way because the mortality rate could be much lower than is being currently measured. We will have to wait and see if they are correct. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Not read the thread (obviously) but I think I read a suggestion the virus is man made and contains HIV. Any truth or is that bollocks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwfcfan5 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, Winchester White said: It is the flu, it kills folk, all the time. It just happens this strain appears to be a bit better at spreading than other forms due to it being contagious before showing symptoms. Not sure any conspiracy theories are required just yet. It’s not flu. It’s essentially a new common cold like virus that since it’s new to humans is far more dangerous. BUT a new strain of flu has the potential to kill tens of millions of people and mainly young and fit healthy people. This currently looks like it has a low mortality rate and mainly those already sick or elderly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burndens Bogs Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 (edited) On 05/02/2020 at 07:45, MickyD said: My friend is now quarantined with 10 confirmed cases. https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-04/briton-aboard-quarantined-coronavirus-cruise-ship-its-a-ghost-town/ Saw a couple being interviewed on brekky telly this morning who are on this ship. It sounds a nightmare, they should have flown home on Monday but are still confined to their cabin with food rationed and limited to 1 hot drink a day. Remarkable how the Brits always manage to keep their spirits up though. Edited February 6, 2020 by Burndens Bogs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7971401/amp/Have-real-coronavirus-death-figures-leaked-Chinese-conglomerate-lists-death-toll-24-589.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Winchester White Posted February 6, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted February 6, 2020 8 hours ago, bwfcfan5 said: It’s not flu. It’s essentially a new common cold like virus that since it’s new to humans is far more dangerous. BUT a new strain of flu has the potential to kill tens of millions of people and mainly young and fit healthy people. This currently looks like it has a low mortality rate and mainly those already sick or elderly. OK it isn't influenza but it has similar symptoms and also affects the respiratory system. It is probably like you say similar to a cold virus. Listening to some professor on the radio earlier saying it is likely to remain confined to China in the main. Mortality rate is 2% so far, SARS was 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 Just now, Winchester White said: OK it isn't influenza but it has similar symptoms and also affects the respiratory system. It is probably like you say similar to a cold virus. Listening to some professor on the radio earlier saying it is likely to remain confined to China in the main. Mortality rate is 2% so far, SARS was 10%. If you believe the figures. Figures I’m seeing have 10% mortality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Escobarp said: If you believe the figures. Figures I’m seeing have 10% mortality. If you take out the figures from china, it's currently 263 confirmed cases, 4 critically ill, 2 deaths, 20 recovered. China National health commission is saying 80% deaths are in those over 60, 75% have underlying conditions such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: If you take out the figures from china, it's currently 263 confirmed cases, 4 critically ill, 2 deaths, 20 recovered. China National health commission is saying 80% deaths are in those over 60, 75% have underlying conditions such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. You can’t exclude China though really as that just gives a very small sample which is pointless. Like any data set you can manipulate it to tell what you want I’m just worried that the true numbers are being hidden. But I’m also hopeful that we are taking enough precautions here which we appear to be doing in preparation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 10 hours ago, Traf said: Not read the thread (obviously) but I think I read a suggestion the virus is man made and contains HIV. Any truth or is that bollocks? bollocks, the Pasteur Institute in Paris, a not for profit organisation who were the fist the isolate HIV in the eighties have already sequenced the genome of coronavirus and shared it around the world. its also been sequenced by around 20 other organisations, none of them have mentioned HIV https://www.pasteur.fr/en/press-area/press-documents/institut-pasteur-isolates-strains-coronavirus-2019-ncov-detected-france Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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