Coronavirus

[birch-chorley]

9 minutes ago, Nowack said:

Can you just check that, it seems a little high. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-vaccine-deaths-nhs-ineffective-crisis-bad-weather-illness-2017-a8660496.html
 

50k excess deaths attributed to ineffective flu vaccine 

I believe a normal year would be 30k? 

[Mounts Kipper]

1 hour ago, mickbrown said:

Didn't you also fuck off self isolating on return from Spain?

No, didn’t fuck it off here either, did my 14 days. 

[mickbrown]

2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

No, didn’t fuck it off here either, did my 14 days. 

My mistake. Apologies

[Zico]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

Given it was doubling every week back in Spring then it’s highly unlikely that this would have been the case 

6 months should have been more than enough for over 50% of the population to have contracted the virus 

thing is, it's all too simplisitic to just say "let it rip and get herd immunity"

I don't think it woudl've worked, because as the virus made it's way through society, and bodies started literally piling up in hospitals and the NHS collapsed, whilst folk watched on, and also at the rest of the world who were mostly locking down, I reckon a high percentge would've thought "fuck this, I'm staying in"

[Nowack]

6 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

50k excess deaths attributed to ineffective flu vaccine 

I believe a normal year would be 30k? 

The actual figure is around 25k. if you read the article it says "up to" the 2016 year was the most with around 28k. Usually it's around 15k. 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

15 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

I’m working from home, limiting my contacts and taking all other precautions I can, except I’ve a wife working in school and a son in school, if I feel ill I will isolate, I’m not risking repeated needless isolations, now if I was allowed to have a test as soon as I got the message to see if I was positive or not then I’d reconsider it.

They are only 'useless' if you dont come down with it. But thats the whole point of it, you're potentially infectious before you become ill, so isolating protects others.

By that same token a test undertaken too early may give false assurance.

Until these new machines are rolled out (with supposed higher accuracy) then were stuck with current methods.

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, Nowack said:

The actual figure is around 25k. if you read the article it says "up to" the 2016 year was the most with around 28k. Usually it's around 15k. 

So how many do you think died that Winter due to flu? 65k rather than 80k? I’ll accept that then 

The main point, which still stands, is that 50k more died than would have if we had a more effective vaccine. However not a single restriction was put in place to limit the spread of the virus 

Seems quite a jump in reaction for me that we can let 50k die with it barely featuring in the news 3 winters ago vs our reaction to this which could have led to 200k excess deaths (with a reasonable attempt at shielding the vulnerable) 

[Nowack]

2 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

So how many do you think died that Winter due to flu? 65k rather than 80k? I’ll accept that then 

The main point, which still stands, is that 50k more died than would have if we had a more effective vaccine. However not a single restriction was put in place to limit the spread of the virus 

Seems quite a jump in reaction for me that we can let 50k die with it barely featuring in the news 3 winters ago vs our reaction to this which could have led to 200k excess deaths (with a reasonable attempt at shielding the vulnerable

 No. you said 80k the real figure is around 28k. 

[birch-chorley]

13 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

thing is, it's all too simplisitic to just say "let it rip and get herd immunity"

I don't think it woudl've worked, because as the virus made it's way through society, and bodies started literally piling up in hospitals and the NHS collapsed, whilst folk watched on, and also at the rest of the world who were mostly locking down, I reckon a high percentge would've thought "fuck this, I'm staying in"

Fair points

I’d like to think we could have done a decent job of shielding the vulnerable if that’s where our resources were focussed 

 

[birch-chorley]

1 minute ago, Nowack said:

 No. you said 80k the real figure is around 28k. 

Hey??

50k more died than would normally be expected 

How do you work that back to 28k if a normal year is 15k 

[Nowack]

The figure for people dying from flu in 2018-19 is 26408, according to the UK Government. 28330 died 14-15 and the average is around 17k 

[birch-chorley]

Just now, Nowack said:

The figure for people dying from flu in 2018-19 is 26408, according to the UK Government. 28330 died 14-15 and the average is around 17k 

Can you share that link, that would indicate that the 50k excess deaths that Winter don’t have anything to do with the Winter Flu vaccine being ineffective, despite what was widely reported 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

Can you share that link, that would indicate that the 50k excess deaths that Winter don’t have anything to do with the Winter Flu vaccine being ineffective, despite what was widely reported 

Perhaps excess deaths includes more than just flu victims?

[birch-chorley]

Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Perhaps excess deaths includes more than just flu victims?

If the predominant reason given for excess deaths was ‘an ineffective flu vaccine’ then I’d assume they died of flu. Might have been pneumonia as a result of flu perhaps 

Thats certainly what happened to my wife’s nan that Winter 

[Guest]

@peelyfeetwould have a ball with the SAGE numbers

apparently, @0.7 IFR, then they are modelling 4,000,000 cases/week

[Mounts Kipper]

26 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

They are only 'useless' if you dont come down with it. But thats the whole point of it, you're potentially infectious before you become ill, so isolating protects others.

By that same token a test undertaken too early may give false assurance.

Until these new machines are rolled out (with supposed higher accuracy) then were stuck with current methods.

 You can’t live your life isolating repeatedly for 2 weeks whenever you get the message. 

 I read somewhere that in most cases the incubation time was 5 days, now if the government tested you on the 5th day they’d have a much better chance of folk isolating, as it stands you are not supposed to get tested unless you have symptoms, therefore it has to be 14 days.  Most folk want to do the right thing but currently it’s not encouraging folk to do that.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Sweep]

18 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Hey??

50k more died than would normally be expected 

How do you work that back to 28k if a normal year is 15k 

irrespective of the number, I presume that we didn't know the flu vaccine wouldn't work, until it didn't actually work....by which time deaths were stacking up. Presumably, if we'd known the flu vaccine that year was shit, then we might have asked people to shield. By the time they realised the vaccine was in effective, it was too late for them to do anything wasn't it? -  with COVID-19, we actually saw it coming, and knew it would be bad weeks/months before it got a grip, hence we did something about it

I really don't know, I'm just surmising/guessing

[Nowack]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsduetocovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumonia

Below is an extract from table 5 showing annual deaths, on the left, and the ones on the right are influenza season deaths. This also includes pneumonia by the way. 

2006	28,721	20,242
2007	28,317	19,195
2008	29,114	18,678
2009	26,683	18,290
2010	25,839	16,582
2011	25,868	17,581
2012	26,365	17,770
2013	26,625	18,984
2014	25,909	16,465
2015	29,451	21,157
2016	27,927	19,046
2017	27,858	18,725
2018	29,103	21,314
2019	25,406	17,432
2020	-	14,013

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Nowack
Spelling flu wrong.

[Sweep]

10 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

 You can’t live your life isolating repeatedly for 2 weeks whenever you get the message. 

 I read somewhere that in most cases the incubation time was 5 days, now if the government tested you on the 5th day they’d have a much better chance of folk isolating, as it stands you are not supposed to get tested unless you have symptoms, therefore it has to be 14 days.  Most folk want to do the right thing but currently it’s not encouraging folk to do that.

Well you can, it won't be great, but you can do it - we're talking about locking vulnerable people up in their houses for up to 6 months here with minimal/zero contact to the outside world (or Birch is)  -  surely that would be worse than possibly having to isolate for a couple of weeks every month or two until we get a vaccine. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Sweep

[Mounts Kipper]

3 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Well you can, it won't be great, but you can do it - we're talking about locking people up in their houses for up to 6 months here with minimal/zero contact to the outside world (or Birch is)  -  surely that would be worse than possibly having to isolate for a couple of weeks every month or two until we get a vaccine

 Not for me, not for many millions. 

[DazBob]

Birch really does need to change his avatar to this ...

[birch-chorley]

1 minute ago, DazBob said:

Birch really does need to change his avatar to this ...

Ha ha 

This isn’t just about saving a few quid, Millions are facing losing their job. 1m kids have been pushed into food poverty since March, that’s before the furlough scheme has even ended 

The economic damage really is completely devastating and the unintended consequences of it all will be profound (inc our ability to spend on healthcare for many years to come, that will lead to excess deaths anyway) 

[Sweep]

12 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

 Not for me, not for many millions. 

So then, the Government are telling/asking us all to do something......and because you don't like it, you're not going to do it?  -  no wonder it's not going away any time soon.

For what it's worth, I agree with you that it unless everybody does it, then it's a mockery, but by you choosing to opt out, surely you become part of that problem. I'd make it mandatory to have the app, if you're found in public with a mobile phone capable of supporting the app, and you're not using it, then an instant on the spot £100 fine. Set road blocks up and stop vehicles and check, get the police to go into places of work unannounced and check. Door to door spot checks. If you know somebody who is flouting the rules, then if they're fined, you get £50 for grassing them up. Whilst we're being so disobedient as a nation, this is what we need to be doing to stamp it out.

We need to do something to get this under control, apparently the numbers are starting to come down, so hopefully this lockdown will rally help, but I think it should go further, the schools/colleges should be shut until January, as that's where the main transmission is - people bothered about kids education?  - balls to that, they can add another year on at the end and simply increase the school leaving age

Edited November 2, 2020 by Sweep

[birch-chorley]

14 minutes ago, Sweep said:

Well you can, it won't be great, but you can do it - we're talking about locking people up in their houses for up to 6 months here with minimal/zero contact to the outside world (or Birch is)  -  surely that would be worse than possibly having to isolate for a couple of weeks every month or two until we get a vaccine

To be fair, we all locked down for 4 months back in Spring, the only difference would have been the majority of people carried on as normal whilst the vulnerable went into lockdown. What we all went through in Spring really isn’t that hard. The hard bit is the impact it had on the economy and jobs, a different approach could have helped massively reduce that damage 

[Sweep]

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

To be fair, we all locked down for 4 months back in Spring, the only difference would have been the majority of people carried on as normal whilst the vulnerable went into lockdown. What we all went through in Spring really isn’t that hard. The hard bit is the impact it had on the economy and jobs, a different approach could have helped massively reduce that damage 

As ever hindsight is a great thing - a lot of people, yourself included, thought it was the right thing to do at the time. We just need to make sure we do it right this time - and do a proper draconian lockdown, not this half arsed effort I'm listening to Boris deliver at the minute