Brand Evatt

[Traf]

2 hours ago, thebells said:

I’d probably keep going even if Owen Garvan popped up in the centre of midfield. 

I'd physically damage Owen Garvan if he appeared in a Bolton shirt again.

[Ros Coe]

1 hour ago, Horwich said:

He needs to go to save the season.

Bring back big Sam. He won’t fuck about.

Seriously, Big Sam? 

I’d sooner stick with Evatt..

[thebells]

8 hours ago, Ros Coe said:

Seriously, Big Sam? 

I’d sooner stick with Evatt..

Yep. Yesterdays man. 

I’d be staggered if he came back. 

[FrancisFogarty]

On 13/11/2024 at 07:53, thebells said:

Yep. Yesterdays man. 

I’d be staggered if he came back. 

Too late. He’s been snapped up.

[desperado]

BOLTON Wanderers don’t win games against teams in the top six, and they never take points against a local rival.

There are certain commonly accepted beliefs among the fanbase, arguments which are launched unchallenged on social media and internet forums.

That received wisdom must steam from somewhere, of course, and it would be daft to dispute that the Whites’ record against their immediate rivals has cost them precious ground on the top two in the last few seasons. Likewise, you only need to cast your mind back to last weekend to find an example of a local ‘derby’ that has turned sour.

But does the trend really run through Ian Evatt’s four-and-a-third seasons in charge? Is his team guilty of wilting all the time, or just at the wrong times?

We have looked into the numbers since the summer of 2020 to check it out.

THE TOP SIX CURSE.

As fortunes fluctuate throughout a season, defining exactly what is a ‘top six side’ in this context needs some boundaries.

During a forgettable 2018/19 season in the Championship under Phil Parkinson, for example, Bolton only came up against a team who started the match in question occupying a top six spot on nine occasions. Of those games they managed just one win, Craig Noone scoring the winner against Darby County, and lost the other eight.

But if you took the ‘final’ top six in the table, Wanderers could add their opening day victory against West Brom to the list – a day in the Midlands before the dark clouds conspired, where Josh Magennis and Yanic Wildschut gave the travelling fans a day to remember.

There is a similar disparity in the stats for Evatt’s Bolton, who have racked up exactly 50 games since he became manager against sides who started the day in the top six in either League One or League Two. Of those, 14 ended up in victories (28 per cent), 19 were draws and 17 were defeats.

If you only count teams who finished in the top six at the end of the last four seasons, then the numbers alter – and not in Evatt’s favour. Of the 44 games, Bolton have won 10, drawn six and lost 16, a win rate of just 22.4 per cent.

It is worth highlighting that half of those defeats arrived in a single season, and the only one that Wanderers have finished outside the play-off positions. During that 2021/22 campaign, the 6-0 home victory against Sunderland was the only occasion they toppled a member of the final top six.

Evatt currently stands on 99 league wins and will be dearly hoping his 100th comes after the international break against Blackpool. He has contested 198 league games to date, which gives him an overall win rate of exactly 50 per cent.

You would normally expect a decrease in the number of wins achieved against top six teams, as opposed to those placed lower in the division. The disparity does feel high, however, and lends weight to the fans’ theory that the team has not performed well enough against its direct rivals at the top end of the table.

THE LOCAL CURSE.

The term ‘derby’ in football is a disputed one. And for the sake of this article, we are not going to get into the argument of which sides constitute a derby, and which do not; rather, we need to set some cast iron and undisputable parameters.

One of the common threads in recent weeks has been that a large number of Wanderers’ wins against ‘local’ rivals have been against Fleetwood Town, and the win column received another notch on Tuesday night in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy.

Google maps out a 44.1-mile drive to Fleetwood, and 48.9 to Morecambe, so a 50-mile radius seemed a fair one to draw around the town centre to decide which games came into this category.

For the record, Port Vale (52.6 miles), Wrexham (58.9) and Barnsley (62.3) miss out but Leeds (47.5) and Crewe (46.4) sneak in.

Does the geographical proximity of an opposition club affect Bolton’s results? The figures suggest there is a dip – but the real reason supporters subscribe to the theory is that some of the most stinging results in Evatt’s tenure have been damaging defeats against the likes of Wigan Athletic, Stockport County, Blackpool and Accrington Stanley. The results have left an emotional footprint, which has been difficult to forgive and forget.

In all competitions, Bolton have faced teams from within the 50-mile radius on 51 occasions. They have managed 25 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats. And, yes, six of those wins have been against Fleetwood.

They have not in that time registered a single win against Wigan, which is a statistic Evatt and hs players could do with changing, and true highlights since the club returned to League One have been few and far between, George Thomason’s winner against Blackpool at the Toughsheet arguably the pick of the bunch.

It is also fair to highlight that more than half (13) of those wins have been in the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, or various incarnations of the EFL Trophy.

Looking solely at league football, Bolton have played 30 games, won 12, drawn six and lost 12. That gives then a win rate of 40 per cent – which is lower than the overall figure under Evatt (50 per cent) but not necessarily the clear-cut fact it has often been claimed.

The Whites have taken 44 points from a possible 90 against clubs within a 50-mile radius, which equates to 48.8 per cent of those available.

Wanderers’ record in all league games under Evatt has seen them take 343 points from a possible 594 – which works out at 57.7 per cent, indicating they do fare better against teams from further afield.

There are other factors to be taken into consideration, of course. Bolton’s stature as a club at League One level, and previously League Two, potentially makes them a target. One could question whether the same motivation exists for the players – even the fanbase – when travelling to Accrington, for example, as it does the other way around?

And does being situated in the middle of the footballing hotbed of the North West mean ‘local’ games just come up more regularly than they would do for a team like Exeter City, Crawley, or Bristol Rovers?

Whatever the reason, Evatt and his players must find a way to improve their results against promotion rivals AND local sides if they want to mend bridges with the fanbase, and eventually escape League One.

They will have an opportunity to do both before the end of the year, with games coming up against Blackpool and Wigan, plus current top six residents Mansfield Town, Wycombe, Barnsley and Lincoln. Manage that, and they might yet go into 2025 with a brighter mood.

[tomski]

Tough run incoming reading that.

[Stig]

21 minutes ago, desperado said:

 

BOLTON Wanderers don’t win games against teams in the top six, and they never take points against a local rival.

There are certain commonly accepted beliefs among the fanbase, arguments which are launched unchallenged on social media and internet forums.

That received wisdom must steam from somewhere, of course, and it would be daft to dispute that the Whites’ record against their immediate rivals has cost them precious ground on the top two in the last few seasons. Likewise, you only need to cast your mind back to last weekend to find an example of a local ‘derby’ that has turned sour.

But does the trend really run through Ian Evatt’s four-and-a-third seasons in charge? Is his team guilty of wilting all the time, or just at the wrong times?

We have looked into the numbers since the summer of 2020 to check it out.

THE TOP SIX CURSE.

As fortunes fluctuate throughout a season, defining exactly what is a ‘top six side’ in this context needs some boundaries.

During a forgettable 2018/19 season in the Championship under Phil Parkinson, for example, Bolton only came up against a team who started the match in question occupying a top six spot on nine occasions. Of those games they managed just one win, Craig Noone scoring the winner against Darby County, and lost the other eight.

But if you took the ‘final’ top six in the table, Wanderers could add their opening day victory against West Brom to the list – a day in the Midlands before the dark clouds conspired, where Josh Magennis and Yanic Wildschut gave the travelling fans a day to remember.

There is a similar disparity in the stats for Evatt’s Bolton, who have racked up exactly 50 games since he became manager against sides who started the day in the top six in either League One or League Two. Of those, 14 ended up in victories (28 per cent), 19 were draws and 17 were defeats.

If you only count teams who finished in the top six at the end of the last four seasons, then the numbers alter – and not in Evatt’s favour. Of the 44 games, Bolton have won 10, drawn six and lost 16, a win rate of just 22.4 per cent.

It is worth highlighting that half of those defeats arrived in a single season, and the only one that Wanderers have finished outside the play-off positions. During that 2021/22 campaign, the 6-0 home victory against Sunderland was the only occasion they toppled a member of the final top six.

Evatt currently stands on 99 league wins and will be dearly hoping his 100th comes after the international break against Blackpool. He has contested 198 league games to date, which gives him an overall win rate of exactly 50 per cent.

You would normally expect a decrease in the number of wins achieved against top six teams, as opposed to those placed lower in the division. The disparity does feel high, however, and lends weight to the fans’ theory that the team has not performed well enough against its direct rivals at the top end of the table.

THE LOCAL CURSE.

The term ‘derby’ in football is a disputed one. And for the sake of this article, we are not going to get into the argument of which sides constitute a derby, and which do not; rather, we need to set some cast iron and undisputable parameters.

One of the common threads in recent weeks has been that a large number of Wanderers’ wins against ‘local’ rivals have been against Fleetwood Town, and the win column received another notch on Tuesday night in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy.

Google maps out a 44.1-mile drive to Fleetwood, and 48.9 to Morecambe, so a 50-mile radius seemed a fair one to draw around the town centre to decide which games came into this category.

For the record, Port Vale (52.6 miles), Wrexham (58.9) and Barnsley (62.3) miss out but Leeds (47.5) and Crewe (46.4) sneak in.

Does the geographical proximity of an opposition club affect Bolton’s results? The figures suggest there is a dip – but the real reason supporters subscribe to the theory is that some of the most stinging results in Evatt’s tenure have been damaging defeats against the likes of Wigan Athletic, Stockport County, Blackpool and Accrington Stanley. The results have left an emotional footprint, which has been difficult to forgive and forget.

In all competitions, Bolton have faced teams from within the 50-mile radius on 51 occasions. They have managed 25 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats. And, yes, six of those wins have been against Fleetwood.

They have not in that time registered a single win against Wigan, which is a statistic Evatt and hs players could do with changing, and true highlights since the club returned to League One have been few and far between, George Thomason’s winner against Blackpool at the Toughsheet arguably the pick of the bunch.

It is also fair to highlight that more than half (13) of those wins have been in the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, or various incarnations of the EFL Trophy.

Looking solely at league football, Bolton have played 30 games, won 12, drawn six and lost 12. That gives then a win rate of 40 per cent – which is lower than the overall figure under Evatt (50 per cent) but not necessarily the clear-cut fact it has often been claimed.

The Whites have taken 44 points from a possible 90 against clubs within a 50-mile radius, which equates to 48.8 per cent of those available.

Wanderers’ record in all league games under Evatt has seen them take 343 points from a possible 594 – which works out at 57.7 per cent, indicating they do fare better against teams from further afield.

There are other factors to be taken into consideration, of course. Bolton’s stature as a club at League One level, and previously League Two, potentially makes them a target. One could question whether the same motivation exists for the players – even the fanbase – when travelling to Accrington, for example, as it does the other way around?

And does being situated in the middle of the footballing hotbed of the North West mean ‘local’ games just come up more regularly than they would do for a team like Exeter City, Crawley, or Bristol Rovers?

Whatever the reason, Evatt and his players must find a way to improve their results against promotion rivals AND local sides if they want to mend bridges with the fanbase, and eventually escape League One.

They will have an opportunity to do both before the end of the year, with games coming up against Blackpool and Wigan, plus current top six residents Mansfield Town, Wycombe, Barnsley and Lincoln. Manage that, and they might yet go into 2025 with a brighter mood.

Little bit loose with the 50mile radius on derby matches, but it does show that the perception we struggle in both these types of games is backed up by the stats.

And I can't see what would change 4 years of trends from now onwards. 

Just feels like we're all in limbo here. We know he'll be gone before next season, it's just how far into this one we let it linger.

[jayjayoghani]

33 minutes ago, desperado said:

They have not in that time registered a single win against Wigan, which is a statistic Evatt and hs players could do with changing

No shit

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

I think Iles is looking at it from a slightly wrong angle

I'm not sure it's simply a matter of "top six" or local rivalry as such but instead a poor record in matches where there the pressure, and with it the consequences, is higher than a typical league match, which is perhaps a little harder to define and is probably more subjective

But it naturally follows that the majority of matches that meet that standard will also fall within "top six" or local rivalry

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

38 minutes ago, Stig said:

We know he'll be gone before next season, it's just how far into this one we let it linger.

He won't be sacked this season

[Eddie]

6 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

I think Iles is looking at it from a slightly wrong angle

I'm not sure it's simply a matter of "top six" or local rivalry as such but instead a poor record in matches where there the pressure, and with it the consequences, is higher than a typical league match, which is perhaps a little harder to define and is probably more subjective

But it naturally follows that the majority of matches that meet that standard will also fall within "top six" or local rivalry

I agree with this. When I looked at it from a local perspective, there are some where the rivalry and therefore pressure on the game is bigger than others, and it’s not defined by mileage from our stadium.

Wigan, Blackpool, Tranmere and Stockport feel like bigger games to both the crowd and players than Oldham, Accrington and Carlisle, which are probably slightly more pressured than Fleetwood and Morecambe. It just is what it is, there’s not a formula to it.

The top 6 thing is similar - there’s a lot more pressure going to Derby or Pompey than to Oxford or even Posh to an extent.

We all already know the conclusion anyway. We bottle big games, every time away from home and about half of the time at home

[Casino]

25 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

He won't be sacked this season

i think he may be but 'we know' is just a crock of shit

[masi 51]

Tick Tock!!

[masi 51]

15 minutes ago, Casino said:

i think he may be but 'we know' is just a crock of shit

you seem to have changed your view?

why?

[Jol_BWFC]

It’s fine to have the stats, but focussing on the “top 6” side of things, what we need to consider is how does this compare with:

(a) the teams achieving automatic promotion eg Portsmouth, Plymouth, Derby - to see if this is the outlier for why we’re falling short of the top 2; and 

(b) the other play-off teams - to see if we’re doing worse than those at a similar level.

As a general rule, you’d expect the shite (bottom 10) teams to have a shite record against the top 6 and the top teams should have a better record against top 6. If we’re underperforming against our “top-of-the-table” peers, it points toward a specific flaw with us/Evatt.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Fuck the essay, it's too long.

Comments suggest it merely points out what fans can see.

[Dr. Feelgood]

Does anyone, any longer, believe in the Evatt way ? That we can possibly have a squad capable of playing it consistently ? That he knows what he's doing & that he's getting the best from a talented but misused squad ? That he can turn things round, that he has the flexibility to get different tunes ?

[FrancisFogarty]

18 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Fuck the essay, it's too long.

Comments suggest it merely points out what fans can see.

Must say I didn't read it. Life's too short. 

From subsequent comments I don't think I missed much.

[Cheese]

36 minutes ago, Dr. Feelgood said:

Does anyone, any longer, believe in the Evatt way ? That we can possibly have a squad capable of playing it consistently ? That he knows what he's doing & that he's getting the best from a talented but misused squad ? That he can turn things round, that he has the flexibility to get different tunes ?

I have downgraded from "yes" to "not sure". Throughout his tenure, we have gone on brilliant winning streaks, then all of a sudden it fucks up entirely, for no discernable reason. It is a bit bizarre. I am hoping he can turn it around (again), but I completely understand anyones frustration. It's like there's a missing piece of the jigsaw, and he just isn't able to find it.

[FrancisFogarty]

4 minutes ago, Cheese said:

I have downgraded from "yes" to "not sure". Throughout his tenure, we have gone on brilliant winning streaks, then all of a sudden it fucks up entirely, for no discernable reason. It is a bit bizarre. I am hoping he can turn it around (again), but I completely understand anyones frustration. It's like there's a missing piece of the jigsaw, and he just isn't able to find it.

I’ve gone from “yes he’s still got some credit in the bank “ to “not sure he’s got it in him to change the situation with what we’ve got “.

We seem to be jumping from one stepping stone to the next, narrowly avoiding the big puddles.

[Carlos]

As a brand, he's up there with Ratners. In the bin.

[tomski]

The problem with his pep lite philosophy is that he doesn’t evolve like actual Pep does. City now play more direct and with wingers where we still try v1 or whatever it is.

He’s like a bloke on champ man who has found a killer formation on the internet but doesn’t have the players to play it. But continues week after week hoping it will evolve.

This was all so predictable. 

[Zico]

 

Bolton Wanderers boss Evatt on quest for fans' forgiveness

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/24721768.bolton-wanderers-boss-evatt-quest-fans-forgiveness/?s=08

 

[wakey]

6 minutes ago, Zico said:

 

Bolton Wanderers boss Evatt on quest for fans' forgiveness

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/24721768.bolton-wanderers-boss-evatt-quest-fans-forgiveness/?s=08

 

“It is an incredibly difficult thing to do, to come back from the lows of Saturday so quickly, and win a game – it doesn’t matter who you are playing against,” 

says Evatt completely missing the irony.

Stockport managed it alright Ian.

[thebells]

Evatt, like many of us, overthought things after Wembley.

By the time he'd realised the error of his ways, we were 4 games into the season. Since then, we've taken 19 points from 10. Not perfect but acceptable (Stockport aside).

He's stuck with a slightly top heavy squad which was a result of the overthinking and planned formation change. This, I think, is his biggest challenge now.

He will be hoping that the return of 'voices' like Thomasson and Jones can spark something. 

Like Cheese said, he will be all too aware something is missing, but he might not know what it is. 

Feels like death by a thousand cuts at the moment. Just don't know if we are on cut 9 or cut 999.