Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: Dead right. Which is why their chief advisor doing what he did has more to it than just breaking some rules. It’s a psychology thing. That was a massive fuck up. The economy needs to get running though, folk need to work. My missus could potentially be furloughed until September ffs. That’s bollocks. Without wanting to get into that topic as I’m just avoiding it as is a waste of time now. I agree it was a huge fuck up and some will use it as an excuse. I like to think people in the main will be sensible about it. myself and my missus have fortunately not been furloughed so it’s had no financial impact on us, and touch wood, it shouldn’t. I just hope those who predict pent up demand being released once we get ships and businesses open are correct but I can’t see it other than a short term boom. As was seen with the supermarkets. there boom was 4 weeks and now they are all back to usual levels. That’s direct from one of the biggest supermarkets in the country. But even they have an additional cost base now from all the additional home deliveries they are doing Which they need to do or lose the business. even when businesses reopen they will have this extra layer of cost, huge internal operational changes and it’s going to be very very tough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 There at some point a cross over on excess deaths. This is pretty morbid but true. The virus attacks certain vulnerable groups. So in the early weeks it has an impact on those whose immunity is compromised. So not only those that ‘would have died anyway’ go but also those who are weak but might have survived another 2-3 months. In essence this means in coming months excess deaths should drop and become negative as people have died ‘early’ Hope this makes sense the words are very clumsy and not meant to offend anyone who has lost anyone close to them in recent weeks ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 35 minutes ago, Escobarp said: Yep and we reliant on folk being sensible and the minority not spoiling it for everyone else. Some freedoms are better than none and we need to make the most of them. In reality I expect some people to take the piss show a blatant disregard and we have a second wave in a few weeks. but even then the trade off between deaths and the economy will have to be balanced. I bet the tories now with hindsight wish they had lost the GE as whoever was in power at this time is on a hiding to nothing If labour had won I’d expect we’d of lockdown earlier and still wouldn’t be easing lockdown, not sure if labour would have put the furlough scheme in place either, don’t think labour were anywhere near ready for government and I’m thankful it’s the Tories dealing with this, yes they’ve made plenty of mistakes but the alternative in my opinion would of been worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: If labour had won I’d expect we’d of lockdown earlier and still wouldn’t be easing lockdown, not sure if labour would have put the furlough scheme in place either, don’t think labour were anywhere near ready for government and I’m thankful it’s the Tories dealing with this, yes they’ve made plenty of mistakes but the alternative in my opinion would of been worse. Problem I see it is that if labour has won that meant a corbyn government. That wouldn’t have been good imo. Starmer however has made an impressive start from what I’ve read. So you’re probably right mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombwfc Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 58 minutes ago, ErnestTurnip said: If the antibody test proves to be accurate and having had the virus is shown to mean you have (some) immunity then how would the folk of WW want us to use that over here, immunity cards and the like ? It's only a discussion point for the time being, Germany have passed it to their Ethics Council because of the implications it has but it's an interesting one. I think the antibody test is a bit of a red herring, as the amount of people who've had it is so low (circa 4m as per the latest ONS survey). The benefits of giving freedom to 7% of the population would be massively outweighed by the problems caused from incentivising everyone else to try and catch it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Aye Abotger one firmly in the camp of protecting the economy being priority number 1 now This whole thing was about protecting the NHS, giving them time to build up capacity (ventilators, beds, staff, testing, volunteers etc), we have done that and got over peak #1 without hospitals being ‘overrun’ - the track and trace really is the final piece of the jigsaw for me The next phrase should be... Get back to normal / protect the economy / save livelihoods I really think the social distancing stuff needs to go, It’s just unworkable in many industries/ settings (schools, planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc) and we can’t keep these places shut much longer without serious long term damage Another couple of weeks then let’s go with what we’ve got Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: Aye Abotger one firmly in the camp of protecting the economy being priority number 1 now This whole thing was about protecting the NHS, giving them time to build up capacity (ventilators, beds, staff, testing, volunteers etc), we have done that and got over peak #1 without hospitals being ‘overrun’ - the track and trace really is the final piece of the jigsaw for me The next phrase should be... Get back to normal / protect the economy / save livelihoods I really think the social distancing stuff needs to go, It’s just unworkable in many industries/ settings (schools, planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc) and we can’t keep these places shut much longer without serious long term damage Another couple of weeks then let’s go with what we’ve got I’m for protecting the economy and getting as many folk back to work as possible however I’m concerned about kids going back to school, think that will cause a massive spike in cases, problem is how to get most folk back to work while kids are not at school, perhaps furlough one parent until schools return in September while the main household earner goes back to work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted May 30, 2020 Moderators Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Escobarp said: Without wanting to sound heartless, because I’m not, we simply have to do this. The economy needs to get going. It’s going to result in excess deaths it already has due to the extent of the lockdown measures and timing, but we have no choice. I suspect in reality they want to move the economy forward quicker but are holding back because of the human cost of doing so. Aye, i go into June with pretty much fuck all to do business wise, the last 2.5 months has killed off my client base, most of whom will be clients again once they are up and running I'm still not sending my daughter back to nursery though on Monday, not whilst social distancing is in place, as the nursery assistants simply can't do their jobs properly So yes, let's do this, but, i have little confidence that we're ready, or that we'll be able to cope with another spike And by cope, i don't mean the NHS, i mean the public, and by that I mean most have had enough and are now far less likely to listen to advice that tells them they need to revert to lockdown, if the worst happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted May 30, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted May 30, 2020 Those Nightingale hospitals were always there with the second wave in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Just now, Spider said: Those Nightingale hospitals were always there with the second wave in mind. Not sure that’s true mate. We didn’t know how it would spread, how the public would adhere to the measures and what the effects in general were. I don’t see the second wave being as bad. We got wave one with no measures no idea what was going on. Now we at least have something so it should help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted May 30, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted May 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Escobarp said: Not sure that’s true mate. We didn’t know how it would spread, how the public would adhere to the measures and what the effects in general were. I don’t see the second wave being as bad. We got wave one with no measures no idea what was going on. Now we at least have something so it should help Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging. Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc. A nice hot summer could be very useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Spider said: Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging. Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc. A nice hot summer could be very useful. I would agree but I genuinely don’t see us back at football and gigs. I certainly wouldn’t be going anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kent_white Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Track and trace will be launched. It will be an imperfect system on launch, just like it was in Germany. That'll largely be down to the fact that public health and been decimated in the past ten years. In a way that makes the NHS look like a rich uncle. But it will get better, just like it did in Germany. Providing people are patient. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted May 30, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted May 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, kent_white said: Track and trace will be launched. It will be an imperfect system on launch, just like it was in Germany. That'll largely be down to the fact that public health and been decimated in the past ten years. In a way that makes the NHS look like a rich uncle. But it will get better, just like it did in Germany. Providing people are patient. Well if it’s not working within 24 hours, I’m going on Facebook being sarcastic about the government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jules_darby Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 40 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said: Aye, i go into June with pretty much fuck all to do business wise, the last 2.5 months has killed off my client base, most of whom will be clients again once they are up and running I'm still not sending my daughter back to nursery though on Monday, not whilst social distancing is in place, as the nursery assistants simply can't do their jobs properly So yes, let's do this, but, i have little confidence that we're ready, or that we'll be able to cope with another spike And by cope, i don't mean the NHS, i mean the public, and by that I mean most have had enough and are now far less likely to listen to advice that tells them they need to revert to lockdown, if the worst happens My 2 go back to nursery this week Looking forward to another semblance of normality can’t remember if I posted this but I was in Manc on Thursday and it’s definitely gearing up to be “open”. bars serving take outs; Schloss already setup to take folk in - screens up etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted May 30, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted May 30, 2020 Brazil - doing very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombwfc Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 55 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: Aye Abotger one firmly in the camp of protecting the economy being priority number 1 now This whole thing was about protecting the NHS, giving them time to build up capacity (ventilators, beds, staff, testing, volunteers etc), we have done that and got over peak #1 without hospitals being ‘overrun’ - the track and trace really is the final piece of the jigsaw for me The next phrase should be... Get back to normal / protect the economy / save livelihoods I really think the social distancing stuff needs to go, It’s just unworkable in many industries/ settings (schools, planes, trains, pubs, restaurants etc) and we can’t keep these places shut much longer without serious long term damage Another couple of weeks then let’s go with what we’ve got If we do that, then surely we've tanked the economy already for nothing? In three months of this we've achieved 40,000 deaths for 6.7% of the population to have been infected. With a lockdown. Extrapolate that out to the point we reach herd immunity (assuming that exists), and you're not far off the predictions for if we'd done nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Just now, Tombwfc said: If we do that, then surely we've tanked the economy already for nothing? In three months of this we've achieved 40,000 deaths for 6.7% of the population to have been infected. With a lockdown. Extrapolate that out to the point we reach herd immunity (assuming that exists), and you're not far off the predictions for if we'd done nothing. But if we carry on the economy would collapse and we would see unemployment at ridiculous levels and I mean ridiculous. It’s a lose lose whichever way you look at it. No? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 33 minutes ago, Spider said: Autumn/winter could be awful if the virus doesn’t mutate itself into something less damaging. Distancing will be a thing of the past and if we’re all back at gigs and matches, it’s going to cause havoc. A nice hot summer could be very useful. The fact that the warm months will help fight the virus is actually an argument to ease lockdown sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 44 minutes ago, Escobarp said: Not sure that’s true mate. We didn’t know how it would spread, how the public would adhere to the measures and what the effects in general were. I don’t see the second wave being as bad. We got wave one with no measures no idea what was going on. Now we at least have something so it should help I do think if there is another spike could see them used as Covid only hospitals with other hospitals being as far as possible Covid free rather than as at stage 1 normal hospitals trying to cope with Covid and other cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escobarp Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 Just now, Ani said: I do think if there is another spike could see them used as Covid only hospitals with other hospitals being as far as possible Covid free rather than as at stage 1 normal hospitals trying to cope with Covid and other cases. Yes possibly I would just worry that potentially they aren’t as well equipped and staffed as usual icu departments etc. but I know nowt about hospitals so shall leave that to an expert to tell us if so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Winchester White said: My 15 year old suffers with his mental health. This has been really hard for him. Thankfully, his councellor has been having sessions with him over facetime which have helped. The slight easing of restrictions recently have been a godsend, he has been able to chat with a mate kicking a football about or go and sit in a friends garden for a bit for a natter. He also went for a walk with his girlfriend yesterday, I do wonder how much social distancing was achieved... My Step daughter has a counsellor as she is normally the one that struggles but as she has b/f here has been mainly ok. Yoof is usually pretty laid back but he is basically missing his mates and the day to day banter in his office. Seeing him trying to cope has influenced my views on this. You have to trust them on social distancing and probably accept the gap may have been closed at times ! Hope your lad is doing ok. Last night Yoof was going to move to his dads for a few days as falling out with his mum and sister. Today seems better but it is so difficult for a 21 year old lad to be stuck in a house with us 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kent_white Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 25 minutes ago, Spider said: Well if it’s not working within 24 hours, I’m going on Facebook being sarcastic about the government. 😂😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birch-chorley Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, Tombwfc said: If we do that, then surely we've tanked the economy already for nothing? In three months of this we've achieved 40,000 deaths for 6.7% of the population to have been infected. With a lockdown. Extrapolate that out to the point we reach herd immunity (assuming that exists), and you're not far off the predictions for if we'd done nothing. Your assuming that the economy won’t tank anymore now no matter what we do going forward, I don’t agree, I think the economic impact will keep getting worse the longer some of these measures are in place. Comes a point where the economy needs to take priority over protecting the NHS, I think we are there The last three months should have helped us prepare to manage this through much better than if we had let it run from the start I still think people in the at risk groups should be shielded, they are more likely to burden the NHS, but the rest of us should crack on Testing and tracing will be key, if certain regions see a big flare up then you re start some of it in those areas. As things stand some areas have seen local businesses decimated and they have hardly had any cases, can’t carry on like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombwfc Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, birch-chorley said: Your assuming that the economy won’t tank anymore now no matter what we do going forward, I don’t agree, I think the economic impact will keep getting worse the longer some of these measures are in place. Comes a point where the economy needs to take priority over protecting the NHS, I think we are there The last three months should have helped us prepare to manage this through much better than if we had let it run from the start I still think people in the at risk groups should be shielded, they are more likely to burden the NHS, but the rest of us should crack on Testing and tracing will be key, if certain regions see a big flare up then you re start some of it in those areas. As things stand some areas have seen local businesses decimated and they have hardly had any cases, can’t carry on like that There absolutely needs to be a balance, but other countries aren't just throwing their hands up and saying whatever will be will be. Testing and tracing only work if the number of cases are low, and other measures are still in place. Remove social distancing (as you suggested) and you might as well not bother. By the time any of the 8,000 people getting infected every day develop symptoms (around five days for the symptoms, probably 48 hours for the test) they'll have been in close contact with loads of other people at work/the pub/shops. And we'd have no idea who most of those are. The steps we're taking are broadly the right ones, on paper. It's the timing and trust in the message and what's actually being delivered that are concerning. South Korea had 80 positive cases the other day and started shutting schools. We're re-opening ours at 2,000. It does feel quite a lot like we've mismanaged the first bit and are now rushing to catch up to everyone else. Edited May 30, 2020 by Tombwfc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.