peelyfeet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, masi 51 said: No we can test the population weekly but it will not matter. It will just give those freedom to carry on with there normal lifestyle until they get symtoms again....repeat etc Shield protect the vulnerable and lets go for herd immunity According to the latest sero positive tests the NW is at a maximum 16% positivity, probably lower - you need at least 60%-70% to get to herd immunity. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports/sero-surveillance-of-covid-19 So, if you beleive this data, which the government do, we need another 44% - 54% to catch it in the NW. Population of the NW is 7.3 million 44% of this is 3.2 million, 55% is 4 million up to 20% of the daily infection rate needed hospitalisation at any one time in the spring ( in spring in UK, 20k was the most we had in covid beds in 1 day, and 100k is estimated as the actual highest new infections per day (not recorded cases, which was much lower) 20% of 3.2 million is 640K even if you think this is a massive over estimate, say even 10 fold, you'd still need 64K in hospital We've got about 5K covid beds in the NW, if you throw in Nightingale, a small % are ventilator beds. Some patients stay in for weeks Where's everyone going to go if we get a big rush at the same time? I'm not saying this is correct - but it's what the govmt are using as a guide, and why they're imposing restrictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Only 2 people in hospital in bolton with Covid accord to the MEN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masi 51 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: According to the latest sero positive tests the NW is at a maximum 16% positivity, probably lower - you need at least 60%-70% to get to herd immunity. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports/sero-surveillance-of-covid-19 So, if you beleive this data, which the government do, we need another 44% - 54% to catch it in the NW. Population of the NW is 7.3 million 44% of this is 3.2 million, 55% is 4 million up to 20% of the daily infection rate needed hospitalisation at any one time in the spring ( in spring in UK, 20k was the most we had in covid beds in 1 day, and 100k is estimated as the actual highest new infections per day (not recorded cases, which was much lower) 20% of 3.2 million is 640K even if you think this is a massive over estimate, say even 10 fold, you'd still need 64K in hospital We've got about 5K covid beds in the NW, if you throw in Nightingale, a small % are ventilator beds. Some patients stay in for weeks Where's everyone going to go if we get a big rush at the same time? I'm not saying this is correct - but it's what the govmt are using as a guide, and why they're imposing restrictions. All those Statistics are way out 1000 a day were dying in April out of 10000 confirmed cases 10% mortality rate 23 a day are dying now from roughly 4000 confirmed I do not know the maths but i would say in the months of April/May i would imagine the true figures are massivly higher. Its only testing that is showing these figures to be so out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, radcliffewhite1 said: Only 2 people in hospital in bolton with Covid accord to the MEN That’s wrong its nearer 30 according to my mate who works there Its still fuck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: That’s wrong its nearer 30 according to my mate who works there Its still fuck all Not sure the 30 would agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: That’s wrong its nearer 30 according to my mate who works there Its still fuck all just going off this https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-live-updates-greater-manchester-18947702 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Someone needs to publish the hospitalisation figures for hotspots. At the moment its monthly. The difference between 2 and 30 is massive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: Someone needs to publish the hospitalisation figures for hotspots. At the moment its monthly. The difference between 2 and 30 is massive Could try a freedom on information request? Dunno if its an area covered by such things though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said: Could try a freedom of information request? Dunno if its an area covered by such things though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said: Not sure the 30 would agree. I don't mean the virus is fuck all, I mean the numbers are fuck all. Lad just got in from school, says all the kids are trying it on, coughing, saying they're hot etc... They're all spying a fortnight on the xbox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Spider said: I don't mean the virus is fuck all, I mean the numbers are fuck all. Lad just got in from school, says all the kids are trying it on, coughing, saying they're hot etc... They're all spying a fortnight on the xbox I know you're not, but when they see the impact of their stay, the nurses and the non existence of other important services because of the virus, surely they and others will realise that such an increase is indicative of where we might be heading. I'm sure kent will have stories of burned out staff etc, the last thing we need is to risk putting them through shit again. Get the numbers down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, masi 51 said: All those Statistics are way out 1000 a day were dying in April out of 10000 confirmed cases 10% mortality rate 23 a day are dying now from roughly 4000 confirmed I do not know the maths but i would say in the months of April/May i would imagine the true figures are massivly higher. Its only testing that is showing these figures to be so out ?? I said 100K real infections - 1,000 deaths is 1%, not 10% The highest recorded cases per day was 5.5k roling 7 day average https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ we were missing tens of thousand of cases because the testing wasn't up to scratch. These aren't my figures, I aint plucked them out of the air. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masi 51 Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: ?? I said 100K real infections - 1,000 deaths is 1%, not 10% The highest recorded cases per day was 5.5k roling 7 day average https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ we were missing tens of thousand of cases because the testing wasn't up to scratch. These aren't my figures, I aint plucked them out of the air. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time I think we are missing 100s thousands because of the lack of testing....Hence we will never know how close we are until we have herd immunity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 minute ago, masi 51 said: I think we are missing 100s thousands because of the lack of testing....Hence we will never know how close we are until we have herd immunity Does herd immunity exist with this virus? From what we know so far, vaccination is the way to achieve it, not by having a high percentage of the population get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiggy Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 I got a insight earlier today into why this thing isn’t going away any time soon. First day back in the office after months at home where almost everyone has been following the rules. Ordered lunch for collection from my favourite local takeaway. Arrived to see huge signs stating only 2 people allowed in at any time and that masks must be worn. 2 people already inside so I wait my turn. Once they’ve left I head in to get my food. In the time I’ve taken to pay, the small shop fills with at least 10 other people with not one wearing a mask. Maybe that’s the norm that I’ve somehow just not seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Carlos Posted September 17, 2020 Moderators Share Posted September 17, 2020 There is no evidence that any form of immunity exists, herd or otherwise. You can't just parrot Donald Trump on this shit. Folk without even an O Level in Biology making shit up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 27 minutes ago, wiggy said: I got a insight earlier today into why this thing isn’t going away any time soon. First day back in the office after months at home where almost everyone has been following the rules. Ordered lunch for collection from my favourite local takeaway. Arrived to see huge signs stating only 2 people allowed in at any time and that masks must be worn. 2 people already inside so I wait my turn. Once they’ve left I head in to get my food. In the time I’ve taken to pay, the small shop fills with at least 10 other people with not one wearing a mask. Maybe that’s the norm that I’ve somehow just not seen. Popped in greenhaulgh's at lunchtime. One lady in, as I entered with mask, chap behind counter politely, but strongly asked me to wait outside. Only one allowed in at a time. Couldn't see anything on the door to that effect, plenty of stuff about distancing, but it didn't matter: they were doing it correctly and I was happy enough to wait. Plenty of business owners could do likewise if they if they chose to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, masi 51 said: I think we are missing 100s thousands because of the lack of testing....Hence we will never know how close we are until we have herd immunity Everybody does - that's why the govmt are using seropositive tests to see how many have antibodies, and using symptom tracking data from 4 million people from back when we couldn't test enough, then adjusting by demography and extrapolating out to give us the best idea of how many have had it. This has been done all around the world and the conclusion is, there's loads who haven't got antibodies, and loads who didn't have symptoms back when we couldn't test as many. It's the best data we have The analysis of this data reckons less than 9% of the UK have had it so far, call it 6 million - yet we've only captured 378K cases through testing. This is what governments are going off, even Sweden, and is why they won't get rid of all restrictions and go all out for herd immunity because if the data is correct, the hospitals would be fucked with a big surge, which would mean thousands not getting any treatment and the fatality rate would go up, a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 Just a big fuck off sign outside all shops saying "we won't serve you if you don't wear a mask you thumping wankpipes" It's not hard, this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 A question: Ive heard security folk in Bolton Market Place asking folk to wear their mask. Most then get one out of their pocket or bag. Are they just ‘trying the system’ just to see if they can get away with not wearing one? That isn’t the question though. One woman, on being asked to wear one yesterday, told the security guy that she was exempt because.... (I was walking past and didn’t fancy stopping to listen to the conversation) Who grants such exemptions? Is it the family doctor? Or maybe the person claiming the exemption just decided they don’t want to wear a mask. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members burnden Posted September 17, 2020 Members Share Posted September 17, 2020 Radio Manc on twitter reporting chaos around Bolton testing centre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, MickyD said: A question: Ive heard security folk in Bolton Market Place asking folk to wear their mask. Most then get one out of their pocket or bag. Are they just ‘trying the system’ just to see if they can get away with not wearing one? That isn’t the question though. One woman, on being asked to wear one yesterday, told the security guy that she was exempt because.... (I was walking past and didn’t fancy stopping to listen to the conversation) Who grants such exemptions? Is it the family doctor? Or maybe the person claiming the exemption just decided they don’t want to wear a mask. self certified exemptions - basically you can claim they make you feel claustrophobic or distressed - the govmt even helps you to make your own exemption card https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter only1swanny Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 32 minutes ago, MickyD said: A question: Ive heard security folk in Bolton Market Place asking folk to wear their mask. Most then get one out of their pocket or bag. Are they just ‘trying the system’ just to see if they can get away with not wearing one? That isn’t the question though. One woman, on being asked to wear one yesterday, told the security guy that she was exempt because.... (I was walking past and didn’t fancy stopping to listen to the conversation) Who grants such exemptions? Is it the family doctor? Or maybe the person claiming the exemption just decided they don’t want to wear a mask. Mrs Swanny is exempt. Has severe asthma and breathing problems following her hospital stay. Absolutely no way she can wear one, I'm technically exempt, full on panic attacks at having my face covered and really struggle to breathe, but i still crack on and wear one.. it's respect for other people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 17, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, only1swanny said: Mrs Swanny is exempt. Has severe asthma and breathing problems following her hospital stay. Absolutely no way she can wear one, I'm technically exempt, full on panic attacks at having my face covered and really struggle to breathe, but i still crack on and wear one.. it's respect for other people. Is she still on the mend, or is her situation going to be very long term? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frank_spencer Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, only1swanny said: I'm technically exempt, full on panic attacks at having my face covered and really struggle to breathe, but i still crack on and wear one.. it's respect for other people. Same here I just pop outside for a breather if it starts getting too much. A bit of a pain but not worth spreading a killer virus iver.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.