Coronavirus

[Ani]

1 hour ago, gonzo said:

What percentage of cases get acquired in hospitals or care homes? 

 

You keep asking me for stats mate I am not Malcolm. 😎😘😂

[Not in Crawley]

No one is thinking about those poor monks making Buckfast? It effects the whole of the uk this. Also, Iru Bru sales by reducing the amount of hangovers. She's not thought this through.

[Not in Crawley]

1 minute ago, Ani said:

You keep asking me for stats mate I am not Malcolm. 😎😘😂

Speaking of which, where is he? I know he's of an advanced age. Should we be worried?

[Mounts Kipper]

Wasnt the lockdown justified by the figures supplied by Ferguson that 500k deaths would result if we didnt and the NHS would melt down, these figures have subsequently been found to be incorrect.  If this was flu and deaths were similar levels we wouldnt be locking down.

[Sweep]

1 hour ago, DazBob said:

That's an impossible question to answer.

Had there not been any local restrictions then the infection rate could have been miles worse.  It could have been similar.  We'll never know.

 

18 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

I think that’s where I am.

I hope that the Government doesn’t panic and make a poor decision on that basis.

Surely they won't know what a poor decision is, until they make it and see that it doesn't work........

Obviously the areas with local restrictions have still seen cases rise, but as DazBob points out, we'll not know if they would have been worse or the same (Nobody thinks that there would have been less cases....unless you're a loon of course)

As the cases are still rising, then they have to do something, they can't just sit back and let it ride out and just see what happens, and I'm not sure anybody really wants or expects that to happen.

The next logical step, for those areas with a rising amount of cases is to impose further and more draconian restrictions, and hope that starts to push the number down. If it doesn't, then they have to go back to the table and think of something else.

No matter what anybody thinks, another lockdown is coming, the Porrdige Botherers have led the way on this, and I'd be very surprised if the NW and NE didn't follow suit in the next few days

[peelyfeet]

30 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Wasnt the lockdown justified by the figures supplied by Ferguson that 500k deaths would result if we didnt and the NHS would melt down, these figures have subsequently been found to be incorrect.  If this was flu and deaths were similar levels we wouldnt be locking down.

500k was the final total of deaths if we did fuck all, using what we knew in early spring - they ran several models, applying the effect of various restictions, which brought the numbers down a lot, and cumulativley they had a larger effect - but the 500k still gets brought up. 500k was if we did absolutley nothing, just carried on as we are.

The incorrect stat which made them panic was they thought 15 - 30% could need ICU treatment, and we only had 4,000 beds - which means, as soon as we got to 27K cases, ICU's would be full. 

If the ICUs are full, most people who need the ICU die without it, so suddenly instead of 0.7% covid cases dying, that goes up to 10%, and everyone else who needs the ICU for other stuff also dies - so deaths rise across the board.

We still dont have anywhere near enough ICU beds to deal with a big surge - we have more than before, we are better at treating people beforehand, so they dont need to go to the ICU, and mask wearing is supposed to give you a lower viral load (if you caught it when wearing one) as opposed to maskless, which in turn is supoosed to make you less likely to need the ICU.

The issue we have is that the last surge lasted about 6 weeks in reality - this time we may have 6 months.

ICU patients can take weeks to be discharged - so they fill up a lot faster than they empty. if we have several months of ICU admissons at amuch lower rate than in spring, but over a longer period of time, they can still get full.  

Edited October 8, 2020 by peelyfeet

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

500k was the final total of deaths if we did fuck all, using what we knew in early spring - they ran several models, applying the effect of various restictions, which brought the numbers down a lot, and cumulativley they had a larger effect - but the 500k still gets brought up. 500k was if we did absolutley nothing, just carried on as we are.

The incorrect stat which made them panic was they thought 15 - 30% could need ICU treatment, and we only had 4,000 beds - which means, as soon as we got to 27K cases, ICU's would be full. 

If the ICUs are full, most people who need the ICU die without it, so suddenly instead of 0.7% covid cases dying, that goes up to 10%, and everyone else who needs the ICU for other stuff also dies - so deaths rise across the board.

We still dont have anywhere near enough ICU beds to deal with a big surge - we have more than before, we are better at treating people beforehand, so they dont need to go to the ICU, and mask wearing is supposed to give you a lower viral load (if you caught it when wearing one) as opposed to maskless, which in turn is supoosed to make you less likely to need the ICU.

The issue we have is that the last surge lasted about 6 weeks in reality - this time we may have 6 months.

ICU patients can take weeks to be discharged - so they fill up a lot faster than they empty. if we have several months of ICU admissons at amuch lower rate than in spring, but over a longer period of time, they can still get full.  

How did they manage in Bergamo? If 57% of people in the area have the antibody then the majority of the population were exposed in wave 1 

Did they run out of ICU beds? Did it lead to a mass increase in deaths from other causes?

Given the benefit of more capacity, better understanding / treatments and the ability to shield the most vulnerable do you think they could deal with the a similar surge in wave 2 better than they did previously?

[peelyfeet]

2 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

How did they manage in Bergamo? If 57% of people in the area have the antibody then the majority of the population were exposed in wave 1 

Did they run out of ICU beds? Did it lead to a mass increase in deaths from other causes?

Given the benefit of more capacity, better understanding / treatments and the ability to shield the most vulnerable do you think they could deal with the a similar surge in wave 2 better than they did previously?

https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/41/19/1783/5816894

https://www.independent.co.uk/section%202/covid-19-survivors-bergamo-b420928.html

[peelyfeet]

12 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

How did they manage in Bergamo? If 57% of people in the area have the antibody then the majority of the population were exposed in wave 1 

Did they run out of ICU beds? Did it lead to a mass increase in deaths from other causes?

Given the benefit of more capacity, better understanding / treatments and the ability to shield the most vulnerable do you think they could deal with the a similar surge in wave 2 better than they did previously?

sorry mate didn't answer you question - they could definatley deal with a surge in wave 2 miles better than before - the hospital staff are used to it now, they administer treatment earlier - send people home earlier, have better medication, have more beds, etc, etc - I'd be massivley surprised if it got anywhere near the level of last time - but it has the chance to last a lot longer this time because of the weather - this sunshine today is what we need more of. Hope its a mild winter.

Edited October 8, 2020 by peelyfeet

[birch-chorley]

5 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/41/19/1783/5816894

https://www.independent.co.uk/section%202/covid-19-survivors-bergamo-b420928.html

The first link reads like they had a horrendous time of it, but still their health system didn't collapse. Given that was in March and they would now have the benefit of greater capacity, more ventilators, better treatments I'd hazard a guess that they would be much better equipped. If on top of that they were able to shield the vulnerable then you'd imagine the numbers coming through the hospital door would be massively down 

The second link, long Covid, now that is of course a further concern, I'd be keen to understand what % of the overall uk population that have the antibody also have long covid symptoms 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

sorry mate didn't answer you question - they could definatley deal with a surge in wave 2 miles better than before - the hospital staff are used to it now, they administer treatment earlier - send people home earlier, have better medication, have more beds, etc, etc - I'd be massivley surprised if it got anywhere near the level of last time - but it has the chance to last a lot longer this time because of the weather - this sunshine today is what we need more of. Hope its a mild winter.

The probable seasonality of this Virus is hardly ever referred to. It probably helped us out over summer.

[Escobarp]

58 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Wasnt the lockdown justified by the figures supplied by Ferguson that 500k deaths would result if we didnt and the NHS would melt down, these figures have subsequently been found to be incorrect.  If this was flu and deaths were similar levels we wouldnt be locking down.

How have they found to be incorrect? The only way of that being the case would be if we had done nothing and then measured the two. 
 

you cannot have a forecast against scenario A, do something completely different and then say ah well the forecast was wrong. It simply doesn’t work that way. In any walk of life. 

Which is why most of the so called experts are full of shit. 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

19 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

The probable seasonality of this Virus is hardly ever referred to. It probably helped us out over summer.

Which would then suggest its going to get a lot worse!

 

[Guest]

51 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Which would then suggest its going to get a lot worse!

 

Possibly

 

depends on factors which wont be disclosed and we’ll claim 000s of lives saved

Edited October 8, 2020 by boltondiver

[Zico]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

The first link reads like they had a horrendous time of it, but still their health system didn't collapse. Given that was in March and they would now have the benefit of greater capacity, more ventilators, better treatments I'd hazard a guess that they would be much better equipped. If on top of that they were able to shield the vulnerable then you'd imagine the numbers coming through the hospital door would be massively down 

The second link, long Covid, now that is of course a further concern, I'd be keen to understand what % of the overall uk population that have the antibody also have long covid symptoms 

genuine question - what would a collapsed health system look like? how is it defined?

they had bodies piling up in hospitals and were driving them down south en masse to chuck in open graves if I remember right, because they couldn't cope with the volume of dead people

[Spider]

17,500 cases today

Up and up

Time for Operation Hibernate.

Full details to follow, which I will be submitting to that floppy haired fucknut at Number 10 for consideration.

Edited October 8, 2020 by Spider

[Tonge moor green jacket]

39 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

genuine question - what would a collapsed health system look like? how is it defined?

they had bodies piling up in hospitals and were driving them down south en masse to chuck in open graves if I remember right, because they couldn't cope with the volume of dead people

Also ran out of ventilators briefly. Remember the priest who gave his up so another person could have it. He died.

[Zico]

2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Also ran out of ventilators briefly. Remember the priest who gave his up so another person could have it. He died.

done some googling, it sounds like they were stretched beyond their limits and couldn't do their "job" properly

it does sound like it collapsed to me, but not sure how that's defined

 

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/collapsing-virus-pummels-medics-spain-italy-69789413
The coronavirus is waging a war of attrition against health care workers throughout the world, but nowhere is it winning more battles at the moment than in Italy and in Spain, where protective equipment and tests have been in severely short supply for weeks.

At the 12 de Octubre University Hospital, patients could be seen on the floor as they waited for a bed in recent days. The hospital says the patients have since been accommodated elsewhere.

This week, 11 of the hospital’s 14 floors are devoted to caring for those suffering from COVID-19, and there is still not enough room: The patients with less serious cases of the disease are being put in the hospital’s gym or in a large tent outside.

https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/lessons-from-northern-italy-why-even-great-health-systems-collapse-under-covid-19-case-load/
As the novel coronavirus spreads through an immunologicaly naive population at rapid speed, even one of the best health care systems in the world is quickly reaching its limit
An intensivist in northern Italy reports of overwhelmed hospitals running at 200% capacity.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/italys-mass-graves-are-opened-but-covid-dead-cant-rest-in-peace
In the back corner of Milan’s Maggiore cemetery is Campo 87, a field of hastily dug graves where 128 victims of COVID-19 were laid to rest in plots marked only with cheap plastic crosses. Those buried there were unclaimed at hospital morgues much like the scores of nameless COVID-19 victims buried in the potter’s field of New York’s Hart Island. But many of those who ended up in Milan’s Campo 87 were not interred there because they were homeless or had no families. In most cases, their family members were also COVID-19 positive and sick themselves, or under strict quarantine and unable to collect the bodies. 

Because of the contagiousness of the coronavirus, none of those who died from it were embalmed or processed in accordance with normal burial practices.

Many of the coffins were carried away for burial in big military vehicles since funerals were prohibited across the country until May 18.

Families who found out their loved ones had been buried in communal sections of cemeteries were told at the time that they could eventually claim their dead. They say they weren’t told it would take at least two years.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/20/itco-m20.html
In the Lombardy city of Bergamo, local morgues are unable to cope with a surging death toll. Images of military convoys transporting dozens of coffins to remote cremation sites have sent chills throughout the world.

The hardest-hit regions in the country’s north have been brought to their knees: the health care system is overwhelmed, and choices of life and death are made in the face of insufficient resources, especially for critical patients requiring Intensive Care Unit treatment.

[wiggy]

Terrible numbers today. If cases and deaths continue to double every 2 weeks then by the end of the year we would be looking at 4,600 deaths per day. Or 28,000 deaths in the last week of the year. Or 94,000 deaths from now until then. Is that tolerable for those who want to just crack on?

[Spider]

5 minutes ago, wiggy said:

Terrible numbers today. If cases and deaths continue to double every 2 weeks then by the end of the year we would be looking at 4,600 deaths per day. Or 28,000 deaths in the last week of the year. Or 94,000 deaths from now until then. Is that tolerable for those who want to just crack on?

Even at a profit margin of £50 a go, that’s a lot of money to be made from mine and @Rudy’s Patented Spitfire Coronavirus Commemorative Coffin (TM).

Each coffin will be inscribed with an epitaph outlining the brave sacrifice made at the altar of commercialism.

From the dark, there will be the light of capitalist success.

Everyone’s so down about it.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

1 hour ago, boltondiver said:

Possibly

 

depends on factors which wont be disclosed and we’ll claim 000s of lives saved

Factor 1. This virus has shown itself already to be far worse in the good months than flu. If it does show itself to be worse in the winter, and not making the assumption that it will and acting accordingly, is not a risk a reasonable government could take.

Similar arguments with climate change: wait for definitive proof or assume its going to happen and take appropriate measures.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that too much information in the public domain would be a big hindrance. 

Apparently, the human mind is aware of its own mortality and has learned to cope with it. But what it hasn't managed is to cope with incessant piles of negative stuff- causes illnesses and irrational behaviour. There's an argument that too much is already out there.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

Even at a profit margin of £50 a go, that’s a lot of money to be made from mine and @Rudy’s Patented Spitfire Coronavirus Commemorative Coffin (TM).

Each coffin will be inscribed with an epitaph outlining the brave sacrifice made at the altar of commercialism.

From the dark, there will be the light of capitalist success.

Everyone’s so down about it.

You'll make fuck all though, if you end up needing one of them.

[Spider]

1 minute ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

You'll make fuck all though, if you end up needing one of them.

I’ve already had it twice.

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Just now, Spider said:

I’ve already had it twice.

 

Quick, donate some plasma. The Don will buy it at great expense and give it free to all Americans.

[Spider]

Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Quick, donate some plasma. The Don will buy it at great expense and give it free to all Americans.

Most of my plasma ends up in a sock