Coronavirus

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

If these are available, and are 100% reliable, and the government are ignoring it, then they should all be thrown in the sea, staring with Boris.

Am I missing something?

Read what it actually says again 

[Zico]

13 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Does that not say where it was tested was a government approved facility. Not that the test itself has been approved?

yeah, though if they are an approved body who think they've developed a test they are able to sell on their site, then it's a step in the right direction, I'd have thought, and would expect to have heard more about this

I should probably ask him

 

Just now, Spider said:

If these are available, and are 100% reliable, and the government are ignoring it, then they should all be thrown in the sea, staring with Boris.

Am I missing something?

if you are, I am too

I should probably ask him

[peelyfeet]

1 hour ago, ProfessorWoland said:

On the interview with Levitt, there was an Israeli making a similar point a couple  of weeks ago.

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/04/24/israeli-professor-says-coronavirus-covid-19-has-a-life-of-about-70-days-then-disappears/

If Levitt or Ridley are right this is an 'emperors new clothes' of massive proportions, but to me it seems pending widespread serological testing all of this is speculation. 

I'm curious about how Africa and the sub continent have seemingly been spared a severe attack, at least so far. 

Heat must be one factor, this thing races through meat packing plants but it's not properly taken hold in anywhere very hot as far as I can tell?

also,if obesity is such a key factor, is this one occasion when the developed western world gets the short end of the stick? The western diet, especially that followed by US and UK looks like it may be leaving us especially vulnerable to covid19

Crank Alert

"Professor Yitzhak Ben-Israel is not a medical doctor but specialises in science, technology and security as well as writing a number of books and heading various government committees.

Speaking to a Jewish publication he said “The data speak for themselves – there is a fixed pattern here: after six weeks the graph starts to decline and you see a declining trend"

Every country in the world has applied restrictions of varying degrees, voluntarily and through government policy, in order to create a decline in cases and deaths

There isn't any conclusive proof that I've seen, to show that the decline happened naturally. Nobody that the governments are listening to believes this, they all think restrictions work and have caused the declines, including Sweden.

There is, however, bucket loads of proof to show that the timing and severity of restrictions create declines in death and infection rates, and vice versa. 

However, because we've been applying several restrictions at the same time, (some voluntarily, that we can continue with ease (like improved hygiene)), we don't exactly know which restrictions work the best.

Coming out of lockdown is basically removing the restrictions one by one, in order of what we think will have least effect.

Some removals might fly in the face of logic. 

For example, we think that infants spread and catch more diseases than adolescents, because we experience them catching and passing on colds and viruses when they are young, and therefore we assume that they will be more likely to become infectious and therefore pass on C19 to others.

However, there is evidence to show that young kids immune systems are more likely to kill off the C19 at a very early stage, reducing their chance of actually getting infected, and the length of time, and concentration of the virus that they shed if they do. No idea how good this evidence is.

The main thing to remember is viruses don't fuck off until there's no available host within distance to transfer into. If anyone says the virus would have gone on its own, they're making a massive guess in my opinion.

Africa - can't tell yet, they've got a much younger population, and worse transport links, so that will help, but they also have very poor health systems , and lots of people with HIV,  so unlikely to be able to save many of the seriously ill - South Africa think their peak is 2 months off yet.

 

 

[Zico]

they aren't the only ones doing this

loads of places are selling them

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/18441478.first-to-market-covid-19-antibody-testing-kit-98-accuracy-launched-chepstow-firm/

https://bluehorizonbloodtests.co.uk/products/covid-19-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-antibody-home-test-kit

 

and telegraph reporting on similar:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/makers-home-antibody-test-seek-urgent-nhs-approval/

what is interesting is that it sayts:

The manufacturers of a coronavirus home antibody test are in urgent talks with the government over gaining fast-track approval for their product, making it the first rapid test to be available to the NHS.

so, does that mean you need approval before you can sell it to anyone, or, before the NHS use it?

I should probably ask him

[Tombwfc]

10 minutes ago, Spider said:

If these are available, and are 100% reliable, and the government are ignoring it, then they should all be thrown in the sea, staring with Boris.

Am I missing something?

 

What reason would they have to ignore it? 

Antibody tests are barely mentioned in the plan set out yesterday, with the focus much more on treatments and a vaccine. What's changed, given they were once talked about as one of the massive game changers? Don't know. Doubt it's the virus though. Maybe they don't want people doing a Neil Ferguson and thinking they can do whatever they want if they've had it.

The numbers suggested on the briefing yesterday for how many have had it (10% of London, 4% rest of the UK) add up to about 3m total if my maths is right.

Dr Karol reckoned he bought some which 'work' over a month ago.

Edited May 12, 2020 by Tombwfc

[Spider]

Ok

Talk to me like an infant.

Tests are available that confirm you’ve had Covid-19?

Is that correct?

[peelyfeet]

34 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

I mentioned this site before, and I'm going to be working on it soon:

https://webmedpharmacy.co.uk/

they sell test kits and it's all legit:

 

10 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

yeah, though if they are an approved body who think they've developed a test they are able to sell on their site, then it's a step in the right direction, I'd have thought, and would expect to have heard more about this

I should probably ask him

 

if you are, I am too

I should probably ask him

 

the guy there said to me:

We have just introduced both the COVID-19 Swab test (to detect a current active infection) and a Blood Antibodies test (to detect if you have had the infection) from our Government and PHE approved test house.

So not sure why he's able to develop and test one, approved by the government, but the Government haven't mentioned they have been developed, maybe I should ask him

https://tdlpathology.com/test-information/new-tests/coronavirus-covid-19-sars-cov-2-testing-options-by-pcr-and-igg-antibody/

this is the test they're selling - doesn't say who's manufactured it, or any links to reviews of its effectiveness - it might be the roche one - says available from yesterday

[Escobarp]

3 minutes ago, Spider said:

Ok

Talk to me like an infant.

Tests are available that confirm you’ve had Covid-19?

Is that correct?

Allegedly but not confirmed 

[Rudy]

[Spider]

2 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Allegedly but not confirmed 

Thanks.

Thats a relief, but it sounds like it’s close.

Why the government so quiet about it though?

[peelyfeet]

5 minutes ago, Spider said:

Ok

Talk to me like an infant.

Tests are available that confirm you’ve had Covid-19?

Is that correct?

yeah but some of them aren't accurate, might say you've had it when you've had a cold, and if you caught it in the last 2 weeks might show as negative.

[Rudy]

So we up to 50k ?

[Escobarp]

4 minutes ago, Spider said:

Thanks.

Thats a relief, but it sounds like it’s close.

Why the government so quiet about it though?

Because they’ve been here before maybe with other companies providing “tests “ that don’t work?

who knows 

 

[Tombwfc]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

Thanks.

Thats a relief, but it sounds like it’s close.

Why the government so quiet about it though?

 

It's a fair question. Even assuming they will wait until there's a greater knowledge on how long immunity lasts, and the test can be manufactured at scale, it's still likely to be available well in advance of a treatment/vaccine.

But I've no doubt if they could be trumpeting it, they would.

[radcliffe white]

If something isn’t 100% to work why would the government mention it 

maybe close but until it’s rubber stamped it just getting hopes up 

[peelyfeet]

4 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Because they’ve been here before maybe with other companies providing “tests “ that don’t work?

who knows 

 

They don't want false positives walking around as though they're immune, then catching it unknowingly (high % are asymptomatic) and spreading it around like a bastard 

Edited May 12, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Escobarp]

Just now, radcliffewhite1 said:

If something isn’t 100% to work why would the government mention it 

maybe close but until it’s rubber stamped it just getting hopes up 

That’s where im at. No point in a False dawn would do more bad than good 

[Sweep]

3 hours ago, Farrelli said:

From what I've read I don't think the report highlights any cover up, just that the lockdown should have been sooner and mass gatherings banned sooner. 

This is the same across the UK and it remains to be seen how many deaths could have been avoided by stopping Cheltenham going ahead.  As I said in my earlier mail, people were dieing in London hospitals of Covid 19 in early/mid March but the governement did not lockdown until 23rd March. That was too late and negligent IMO. 

I still can't understand why that was ever allowed to happen, even the most blinkered of "it's no worse than Flu" type idiots knew that was a bad idea

[Escobarp]

7 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I still can't understand why that was ever allowed to happen, even the most blinkered of "it's no worse than Flu" type idiots knew that was a bad idea

By far the worst decision of the whole crisis and will have led to mass spreading of infection. But on the flip side why would you actually have gone in the first place?  But that decision should have been taken away 

[peelyfeet]

8 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

So we up to 50k ?

looks like it - shit loads more deaths in care homes again - 20k more than normal so far in eng and wales alone

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

3 hours ago, Escobarp said:

But the key difference is we knew that people have contracted the virus in London. Nobody hid that fact. There would have been uproar if they had. 
 

the Scottish government have admitted they knew there was an outbreak in Edinburgh in February yet this was not revealed to anybody. It is only now being revealed because it has been uncovered. That to me is a cover up. 

 it’s quite simple really 

watch the tv programme on it 
 

 

To be fair, according to what I read, they didn't fail to disclose the resident confirmed cases. They were included in the official figures at the time the health authorities were alerted to them.

[Escobarp]

1 minute ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

To be fair, according to what I read, they didn't fail to disclose the resident confirmed cases. They were included in the official figures at the time the health authorities were alerted to them.

Watch the programme 

[Lt. Aldo Raine]

21 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

They don't want false positives walking around as though they're immune, then catching it unknowingly (high % are asymptomatic) and spreading it around like a bastard 

Is there any good data on how many people are asymptomatic?

Is it not more likely that people are pre-symptomatic at testing?

[Casino]

You wouldnt get a test if you were pre symptomatic

[peelyfeet]

19 minutes ago, Lt. Aldo Raine said:

Is there any good data on how many people are asymptomatic?

Is it not more likely that people are pre-symptomatic at testing?

25% , is the figure I've seen the most counting for those who developed symptoms after the test.

It's a guess though, again because of the accuracy of tests.

The amount varies from cluster to cluster. Some think that its down to the viral load that the infected person is exposed to initially - eg. a care home worker without any PPE working 9 hrs a day with infected residents is likely to get more doses than a nurse working 5 hrs a day with adequate PPE.

if this is right it's good because less of us are likely to develop bad symptoms if PPE improves, but there will also be a higher % of the infected walking around asymptomatic. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by peelyfeet