Meanwhile in Ukraine

[DirtySanchez]

So all these sham elections in occupied parts that Russia will 'win'

Any people who thought they were Ukranien are now Russian and under their laws can be called up

Plus, if Ukraine take those areas back does that mean invasion of Russian territory, in their minds, so the nuclears come out?

 

 

 

 

[Marc505]

2 minutes ago, DirtySanchez said:

So all these sham elections in occupied parts that Russia will 'win'

Any people who thought they were Ukranien are now Russian and under their laws can be called up

Plus, if Ukraine take those areas back does that mean invasion of Russian territory, in their minds, so the nuclears come out?

 

 

 

 

It would certainly mean that Putin could justify to himself that Russian soil is under attack and respond accordingly, one such response being tactical nukes as part of the "escalate to de-escalate" strategy.

[Winchester White]

1 minute ago, Marc505 said:

It would certainly mean that Putin could justify to himself that Russian soil is under attack and respond accordingly, one such response being tactical nukes as part of the "escalate to de-escalate" strategy.

That's the worry.

A point to consider as well though is that these areas have been in stalemate for nearly 20 years with russian controlled militias and Ukrainian military just pissing each other off every so often with a short sharp attack to let the other side know they are still there.

What Russia has done since Feb is completely obliterate massive parts of the Ukraine they want to annex. How do they expect folk from there to be welcoming when you have destroyed their city and killed their family and friends?

[Marc505]

11 minutes ago, Winchester White said:

That's the worry.

A point to consider as well though is that these areas have been in stalemate for nearly 20 years with russian controlled militias and Ukrainian military just pissing each other off every so often with a short sharp attack to let the other side know they are still there.

What Russia has done since Feb is completely obliterate massive parts of the Ukraine they want to annex. How do they expect folk from there to be welcoming when you have destroyed their city and killed their family and friends?

That's how I and we would see it as westerners and not understand the logic of it. How could they ever expect to be able to rule and keep the peace over a population that hates them with every fabric?

But we're dealing with a leadership and a mindset that can justify the deaths of hundreds of their own innocent people in the process of putting terrorists down in theatre, school sieges etc down the years and just see it as necessary collateral. They're wired differently.

And then there's also the fear that if they leave enough scorched earth behind somewhere in Ukraine, what would it matter if they detonated a small yield nuke there to make a wider point?

Edited September 28, 2022 by Marc505

[DirtySanchez]

Wasn't it Stalin that said to kill one is murder but anything more is just numbers?

Mind explain the mindset, like in WW2 were it was just chuck numbers at the enemy.

Problem is they're running out of numbers as everyone tries to leave 

And if you are trying to liberate the Donbas from a few nasty Nazis, why the fuck are you bombing the shit out of it and attacking a nuclear power station? 

[gonzo]

More leaks in nord this morning.

One in Swedish Eco Territory.

[Sweep]

9 hours ago, Marc505 said:

 

And then there's also the fear that if they leave enough scorched earth behind somewhere in Ukraine, what would it matter if they detonated a small yield nuke there to make a wider point?

We were speaking about this yesterday, and somebody suggested, even though it sounds bonkers, that Russia might be happy to claim/keep what it currently has just "won" the referendums in....and then drop tactical nukes right on the edge of that "new territory" which will then give them a protective nuclear fallout/barrier from NATO. So basically the claim the land, and then pollute it to ensure that NATO is not right on their doorstep. 

Of course its a ridiculous notion/idea, but who knows what could happen from here

[Marc505]

20 minutes ago, Sweep said:

We were speaking about this yesterday, and somebody suggested, even though it sounds bonkers, that Russia might be happy to claim/keep what it currently has just "won" the referendums in....and then drop tactical nukes right on the edge of that "new territory" which will then give them a protective nuclear fallout/barrier from NATO. So basically the claim the land, and then pollute it to ensure that NATO is not right on their doorstep. 

Of course its a ridiculous notion/idea, but who knows what could happen from here

Im not sure about the pollution side of it there's ways to deliver them without causing fallout (though they'd probably fuck that up as well)

I'm thinking more along the lines of a "This is how far we're prepared to go, do you really want to provoke us further? Step back from us." type situation. That's if this escalate to de-escalate doctrine is still a thing in Russia, thats how its been reported for the last 5 or 6 years but right now who knows what he's thinking. Their conventional forces are having their arses handed to them by a brave and motivated army packing NATO technology and supported by NATO surveillance and targeting. We are close to a state of war with them in all but name as it is.

Meanwhile on the other side of the globe, fully armed US and Chinese navy aircraft close intercept eachother multiple times on a daily basis in a giant tinderbox of a situation. It's like a Clancy novel.

[gonzo]

Theres a good piece in the times about us being in a quite a precarious position when it comes to unconventional attacks.

They could easily attack our infrastructure. This nord stream things illustrates how long theyve been planning all this.

Theyll have stuff in place to take our whole infrastructure down with ease.

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

That's more along cyber warfare lines.

Part of the reason why we've been increasing our own capacity to "fight back".

[Farrelli]

As long as they don’t send some more tourists to Salisbury cathedral with a suitcase full of novichok. 

[gonzo]

Wasnt there some dossier found a few years ago loaded with details about our way of life and infrastructure?

[Marc505]

22 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

As long as they don’t send some more tourists to Salisbury cathedral with a suitcase full of novichok. 

The response (or lack of overtly) to that shows how difficult a situation countries are presented with if they're attacked by a peer or near peer state. What do you do without causing WW3?!

Say that attack was found to have been carried out by some Libyan or some Syrian agent, we'd have without doubt gone to air strikes on some training camps at least or an SAS raid to extract whoever was responsible.

The way Russia has meddled in the political affairs of Western countries for years, and has literally murdered people on their shores, with very little comeback must have given them a sense of invincibility 

[Marc505]

20 minutes ago, gonzo said:

Wasnt there some dossier found a few years ago loaded with details about our way of life and infrastructure?

These English pigs have football forums yet 90% of the chat is about anything but 🤣

[Tonge moor green jacket]

32 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

The response (or lack of overtly) to that shows how difficult a situation countries are presented with if they're attacked by a peer or near peer state. What do you do without causing WW3?!

Say that attack was found to have been carried out by some Libyan or some Syrian agent, we'd have without doubt gone to air strikes on some training camps at least or an SAS raid to extract whoever was responsible.

The way Russia has meddled in the political affairs of Western countries for years, and has literally murdered people on their shores, with very little comeback must have given them a sense of invincibility 

Without doubt the west will see the Ukraine conflict as an opportunity not only to give Russia a bloody nose on its expansion plans but I think your point above will add extra weight to the support. 

A real opportunity to put Russia "in its place" perhaps, and who knows get rid of Putin at the same time.

[kent_white]

I read something yesterday that seems worryingly plausible. Basically it goes something like this. 

Putin needs to escalate in order to de-escalate, and it goes something like this. 

1) Russia annexes these new provinces

2) World responds with more sanctions. NATO responds by increasing weapons available to Ukraine.

3) Ukraine intensifies efforts to regain territory using these weapons.

4) Russia uses tactical nuclear weapon

5) US and NATO need to show a proportional response so attack Russian infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and or airbases inside Russia

6) Both sides have to de-escalate to avoid MAD. Putin can make concessions and spin the yarn that he was the peacemaker back home. 

Dangerous fucking game if you ask me. 

Might be the right time to start stocking up on bottled water and wind up radios! 

 

 

[Marc505]

17 minutes ago, kent_white said:

I read something yesterday that seems worryingly plausible. Basically it goes something like this. 

Putin needs to escalate in order to de-escalate, and it goes something like this. 

1) Russia annexes these new provinces

2) World responds with more sanctions. NATO responds by increasing weapons available to Ukraine.

3) Ukraine intensifies efforts to regain territory using these weapons.

4) Russia uses tactical nuclear weapon

5) US and NATO need to show a proportional response so attack Russian infrastructure in occupied Ukraine and or airbases inside Russia

6) Both sides have to de-escalate to avoid MAD. Putin can make concessions and spin the yarn that he was the peacemaker back home. 

Dangerous fucking game if you ask me. 

Might be the right time to start stocking up on bottled water and wind up radios! 

 

 

This article sets out something similar.

Now, I'm not quite sure what's going on with TWZ at the moment it has always been one of the most broadly informed and least hyperbolic sources but this conflict has slowly turned it towards almost clickbait style articles, I guess they sense a lot more casual traffic available in times like these so have gone for it. So this is probably the starkest article I've ever read on there.

Actual discussions about MAD in 2022, who'd have thought it.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

Ukraine attacked Russian base in Crimea already. This was annexed some time ago, and this action wasn't met with a nuclear response.

Not so sure it will be now. There is also the possibility that a launched tactical nuclear weapon will be intercepted anyway, though obviously far from guaranteed. 

I'm sure China will also be tugging at Putin's strings telling him not to be a dick.

[Marc505]

7 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Ukraine attacked Russian base in Crimea already. This was annexed some time ago, and this action wasn't met with a nuclear response.

Not so sure it will be now. There is also the possibility that a launched tactical nuclear weapon will be intercepted anyway, though obviously far from guaranteed. 

I'm sure China will also be tugging at Putin's strings telling him not to be a dick.

They are both our main hope and most competent enemy right now!

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 minutes ago, Marc505 said:

They are both our main hope and most competent enemy right now!

Aye, a complex situation. 

China's economy is also not performing as it once was though, and I'm sure they're ready for the war to end too.

Iran's internal struggles will also be discouraging for Putin- if the regime topples and a far more tolerant one is installed, he could rapidly lose support from there.

[Burndens Bogs]

I wonder why someones special forces haven’t flown in and topped the c*nt in a Bin Laden stylee.

 

[little whitt]

6 hours ago, Burndens Bogs said:

I wonder why someones special forces haven’t flown in and topped the c*nt in a Bin Laden stylee.

 

dont come out much 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

9 hours ago, Burndens Bogs said:

I wonder why someones special forces haven’t flown in and topped the c*nt in a Bin Laden stylee.

 

So long as they use novichok.

[TroySwoosh]

https://defconwarningsystem.com/2022/09/30/basic-supplies-neeeded-in-the-event-of-nuclear-attack/

[Marc505]

Exactly how we should be running things. Set sail, make the world England once more!