Traf Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Spider said: So 33 people tested positive who had all been in one pub on the same evening. Probably chugging bing off the same cistern. So I think it’s highly likely. In my opinion. An if the average UK household is 4.5 people and we've 33 individuals testing positive, there's a potential for almost 150 cases. Those 150 people will meet how many other people before realising they've already got it? And that is how you go from 20 cases per 100k to 130 cases per 100k in the blink of an eye. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Traf said: An if the average UK household is 4.5 people and we've 33 individuals testing positive, there's a potential for almost 150 cases. Those 150 people will meet how many other people before realising they've already got it? And that is how you go from 20 cases per 100k to 130 cases per 100k in the blink of an eye. Let's hear Moon man's opinion before we just swallow what the government and MSM tell us.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 He seems aptly named if nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L/H White Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 traffic very different today than it was monday must be a hell of a lot of schools shut now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nowack Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Ani said: Is there anyone in the world that will defend the appointment of Dido Harding ? The MP for Weston Super Mare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boby Brno Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 24 minutes ago, Spider said: Let's hear Moon man's opinion before we just swallow what the government and MSM tell us.... Last week when the relaxing of restrictions was stopped it was down to people visiting other households, this week it’s pubs. If the track and trace is accurate. I guess it will change regularly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Boby Brno said: Last week when the relaxing of restrictions was stopped it was down to people visiting other households, this week it’s pubs. If the track and trace is accurate. I guess it will change regularly. Bit of everything. Still loads of idiots whatever ths setting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) It's increased contact in enclosed spaces over long periods of time. Some Ethnic communities drive this because they have multi generational households. Some low income families drive this because they have relatively small houses and large families. Some pub goers drive this because they gather indoors in large groups to get intoxicated for several hours. If you're inside with loads of others for ages, your probability of catching it goes up. Throw in those who don't distance/quarantine/wear a mask/ for whatever reason and the probability goes up higher. It's maths. If folk stick to the guidlines, probability drops. Edited September 10, 2020 by peelyfeet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 10 hours ago, MancWanderer said: You thinking about this? https://mobile.twitter.com/acfwilson/status/1272962532249083904/photo/1 I was “Con’s” apprentice at Horwich Loco Works and we used our British Railways Privilege Pass for free travel to away games. He talked about this appearing on Sweeny. Fairly sure it was Oxford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Spider said: Which school? Claypool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Moonshoot. The guy is a loon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said: Claypool It's been closed completely?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Moon boy said: Bolton has gone from 19 cases a couple of weeks ago to 133, the highest rate in the country, Hancock said in Parliament it was due to 18-29 year olds going in pubs, if you want to believe that that’s ok. If you think that’s a little unlikely form your own opinion Whilst not the only issue, how do you explain that cases of 19-25 year old are increasing rapidly, whilst going down in older groups? Its not just going into pubs, at that age you are out more and generally have a wider circle of friends and mix with more friends of friends. So whatever you are doing, you'll tend to be able to spread it further and faster. I know that Freshers Flu was definitely a thing at Uni - have of thw campus would be ill with a bug within a couple of weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not in Crawley Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spider said: It's been closed completely?? I think its just his class - might even just be his 'bubble' as they all have a group of five kids who they can mix with in their class so make sure if there is one case they are not closing everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DazBob Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Moon boy said: Bolton has gone from 19 cases a couple of weeks ago to 133, the highest rate in the country, Hancock said in Parliament it was due to 18-29 year olds going in pubs, if you want to believe that that’s ok. If you think that’s a little unlikely form your own opinion Never mind what we think and what our own opinions are. Please share what your opinion/theory is. You obviously have one, so spit it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Not in Crawley said: I think its just his class - might even just be his 'bubble' as they all have a group of five kids who they can mix with in their class so make sure if there is one case they are not closing everything. A Whole yr, 200 kids, were sent home for a fortnight, from the school next door to the one my lads go to. A lad went in on Thursday and Friday, got symptoms over the weekend and tested positive. Going to happen a lot for the next few months I fear. Edited September 10, 2020 by peelyfeet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Interesting read https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, boltondiver said: Interesting read https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/ What all this data doesn’t tell, and likely never will, is that all deaths with covid was a covid death. Doctors were instructed that death due to Covid19 didn’t require autopsy and thus the chance to find a cause of death other than covid. Many ‘newsworthy’ stories in the very early part of the pandemic in UK talked of 80 year old folk dying. One was 104 who died of Covid19 when admitted to hospital. It went down as a covid death. I mean, a 104 year old with or without the addition of Covid19 wasn’t going to live too much longer. Now that this anomaly has been sorted it’s always going to skew the figures when comparing the then and now figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
athywhite1958 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 My grandsons school sent a full class home on Monday to isolate for 2 weeks as 1 child had symptoms, all 7 year olds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 But the bit that’s not being made clear is that if your grandson has siblings then they shouldn’t be going to school either... or parents going to work. isolation is for the household, not for the kid originally sent home. or maybe I’ve got it wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, boltondiver said: Interesting read https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/ Comparisons of case fatality rate is only accurate if you know how many cases you have. Everyone missed shit loads at the beginning. The Covid symptom study run by ZOE, with 4 million participants reckons we had over 100k folk showing symptoms of infection, per day at the peak, yet we were only capturing 6k at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: Comparisons of case fatality rate is only accurate if you know how many cases you have. Everyone missed shit loads at the beginning. The Covid symptom study run by ZOE, with 4 million participants reckons we had over 100k folk showing symptoms of infection, per day at the peak, yet we were only capturing 6k at the time. This Zoe HBAHT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted September 10, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: This Zoe HBAHT? I'm hoping that's her on battlenips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaisyHWanderer Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, MickyD said: But the bit that’s not being made clear is that if your grandson has siblings then they shouldn’t be going to school either... or parents going to work. isolation is for the household, not for the kid originally sent home. or maybe I’ve got it wrong. Nope. I thought this too, but reading the guidance thoroughly yesterday. The rule is, if someone in your household is self isolating due to contact with a positive case, the rest of the household doesn’t have to unless they develop symptoms or test positive. But social distancing and handwashing, cleaning of surface etc should be followed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
athywhite1958 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, MickyD said: But the bit that’s not being made clear is that if your grandson has siblings then they shouldn’t be going to school either... or parents going to work. isolation is for the household, not for the kid originally sent home. or maybe I’ve got it wrong. None of mine were in that class, one is a year above and one below Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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