Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Zico]

2 hours ago, gonzo said:

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.

 

The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.

 

The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.

 

The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

 

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.

 

It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.

 

President Zelensky himself proposed the idea of giving the US a direct stake in Ukraine’s rare earth elements and critical minerals on a visit to Trump Tower in September, hoping to smooth the way for continued arms deliveries.

 

He calculated that it would lead to US companies setting operations on the ground, creating a political tripwire that would deter Vladimir Putin from attacking again.

 

Some mineral basins are near the front line in eastern Ukraine, or in Russian-occupied areas. He has played up the dangers of letting strategic reserves of titanium, tungsten, uranium, graphite and rare earths fall into Russian hands. “If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it,” he said.

 

 

 

He probably did not expect to be confronted with terms normally imposed on aggressor states defeated in war. They are worse than the financial penalties imposed on Germany and Japan after their defeat in 1945. Both countries were ultimately net recipients of funds from the victorious allies.

 

A new Versailles

If this draft were accepted, Trump’s demands would amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty, later whittled down at the London Conference in 1921, and by the Dawes Plan in 1924. At the same time, he seems willing to let Russia off the hook entirely

 

 

Donald Trump told Fox News that Ukraine had “essentially agreed” to hand over $500bn. “They have tremendously valuable land in terms of rare earths, in terms of oil and gas, in terms of other things,” he said.

 

He warned that Ukraine would be handed to Putin on a plate if it rejected the terms. “They may make a deal. They may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday. But I want this money back,” he said.

 

Trump said the US had spent $300bn on the war so far, adding that it would be “stupid” to hand over any more. In fact the five packages agreed by Congress total $175bn, of which $70bn was spent in the US on weapons production. Some of it is in the form of humanitarian grants, but much of it is lend-lease money that must be repaid.

 

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham suggested at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend that Trump’s demand was a clever ploy to bolster declining popular support for the Ukrainian cause. “He can go to the American people and say, ‘Ukraine is not a burden, it is a benefit,’” he said.

 

Sen Graham told the Europeans to root hard for the idea because it locks Washington into defending a future settlement. “If we sign this minerals agreement, Putin is screwed, because Trump will defend the deal,” he said.

 

Ukrainian officials had to tiptoe though this minefield at the Munich forum, trying to smile gamely and talking up hopes of a resource deal while at the same pleading that the current text breaches Ukrainian law and needs redrafting. Well, indeed.

 

Talk of Ukraine’s resource wealth has become surreal. A figure of $26 trillion is being cast around for combined mineral reserves and hydrocarbons reserves. The sums are make-believe.

 

Ukraine probably has the largest lithium basin in Europe. But lithium prices have crashed by 88pc since the bubble burst in 2022. Large reserves are being discovered all over the world. The McDermitt Caldera in Nevada is thought to be the biggest lithium deposit on the planet with 40m metric tonnes, alone enough to catapult the US ahead of China.

 

The Thacker Pass project will be operational by next year. The value of lithium is in the processing and the downstream industries. Unprocessed rock deposits sitting in Ukraine are all but useless to the US.

It is a similar story for rare earths. They are not rare. Mining companies in the US abandoned the business in the 1990s because profit margins were then too low. The US government was asleep at the wheel and let this happen, waking up to discover that China has acquired a strategic stranglehold over supplies of critical elements needed for hi-tech and advanced weapons. That problem is being resolved.

 

Ukraine has cobalt but most EV batteries now use lithium ferrous phosphate and no longer need cobalt. Furthermore, sodium-ion and sulphur-based batteries will limit the future demand growth for lithium. So will recycling. One could go on. The mineral scarcity story is wildly exaggerated.

As for Ukraine’s shale gas, a) some of the Yuzivska field lies under Putin control, and b) the western Carpathian reserves are in complex geology with high drilling costs, causing Chevron to pull out, just as it did in Poland. Ukraine has more potential as an exporter of electricity to Europe from renewables and nuclear expansion, but that is not what is on Donald Trump’s mind.

 

The second violation of Ukraine

Ukraine cannot possibly meet his $500bn demand in any meaningful timeframe, leaving aside the larger matter of whether it is honourable to treat a victim nation in this fashion after it has held the battle line for the liberal democracies at enormous sacrifice for three years. Who really has a debt to whom, may one ask?

 

My style of dealmaking is quite simple and straightforward,” says Trump in his book The Art of the Deal. “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after.”

 

In genuine commerce the other side can usually walk away. Trump’s demand is iron-fist coercion by a neo-imperial power against a weaker nation with its back to the wall, and all for a commodity bonanza that exists chiefly in Trump’s head.

 

“Often-times the best deal you make is the deal you don’t make,” said Trump, offering another of his pearls.

 

Zelensky does not have that luxury. He has to pick between the military violation of Ukraine by Putin, and the economic violation of Ukraine by his own ally.

 

 

 

 

 

 

key takeaways for me from that

He warned that Ukraine would be handed to Putin on a plate if it rejected the terms. “They may make a deal. They may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday. But I want this money back,” he said.

Sen Graham told the Europeans to root hard for the idea because it locks Washington into defending a future settlement. “If we sign this minerals agreement, Putin is screwed, because Trump will defend the deal,” he said.

 

makes it interesting then as to what Tump will be saying to Putin about it all

[London Wanderer]

3 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Seems he has already decided the outcome of talks and motivations.

The biggest donor of weapons and money, by a long, long way.

Instrumental, together with Europe etc, in slapping a belligerent Russian down.

As you know, I believe it was the right thing to do, as it may have prepared the ground for a proper deal to end hostilities. 

If now is the time to utilise the position to achieve this then great stuff.

Time to give parties time to sort it out.

I hope I’m wrong, genuinely.

But I do think Putin has agreed to these talks because the US is willing to offer him the land that he’s taken so far. Or at least most of it.

 That would be a win for a Russia & would set a dangerous precedent. You’re basically telling any country that they can invade another, & a few years down the line the land is yours. 
 

All in the name of peace.

If Biden & Europe were willing to offer Putin the same a year ago, he’d have been all ears.

As I’ve said, I hope I’m wrong & that Ukraine get most of their land back. Trump can have credit where it’s due if he achieves that.

Edited February 18, 2025 by London Wanderer

[London Wanderer]

14 minutes ago, royal white said:

You think the leader of somehere Belgium or Portugal could have got Putin to sit down and have peace talks. There’s nothing constructive to say to that. 
 

Blown um

Belgium or Portugal 😂😂

Off you go

 Plucking things out of thin air again.

[royal white]

8 minutes ago, London Wanderer said:

Belgium or Portugal 😂😂

Off you go

 Plucking things out of thin air again.

“Any European leader could have sorted these talks”

Hows your geography? 

[boltonboris]

12 minutes ago, London Wanderer said:

 

 That would be a win for a Russia & would set a dangerous precedent. You’re basically telling any country that they can invade another, & a few years down the line the land is yours. 
 

All in the name of peace.

I wonder which President likes the sound of that Precedent....

[Spider]

It’s almost like sovereignty is meaningless when there’s money in the ground.

imagine over a million young lads and lasses being blown to bits for cheap petrol.

 

[London Wanderer]

11 minutes ago, royal white said:

“Any European leader could have sorted these talks”

Hows your geography? 

From the moment we starting discussing  this, & I posted the link, we’ve been referring to Europe as one.

It has been a united effort of resistance from Europe (& the US).  Decisions have been made collectively, just like meetings with Putin would be with Europe as a whole. 

But you knew this, you didn’t actually think I meant a small European nation. You’ve just lost the capability to have an adult conversation so you’re in wind up mode ❤️

Belgium or Portugal 😂

Add San Marino to that list too 😂😂

Edited February 18, 2025 by London Wanderer

[royal white]

2 minutes ago, Spider said:

It’s almost like sovereignty is meaningless when there’s money in the ground.

imagine over a million young lads and lasses being blown to bits for cheap petrol.

 

Imagine? We’ve  lived through it for the last 20 years. 

[boltonboris]

1 hour ago, royal white said:

Safe to say, if the yanks are going to claim some of those fields near the border or in already Russian occupied land then yanks will have boots on the ground along with some very well paid private military companies. (I might have to brush off my boots). 

 

European leaders really have been caught sleeping on this. Zelensky was having talks with Trump before he was even in power in which Trump said he was going to get it resolved very quickly. 

By giving the Russians exactly what they want. I mean they have been giving him cash for about a decade now, so he does owe Putin something in return

[royal white]

Just now, London Wanderer said:

From the moment we starting discussing  this, & I posted the link, we’ve been referring to Europe as one.

It has been a united effort of resistance from Europe (& the US).  Decisions have been made collectively.

But you knew this, you didn’t actually think I meant a small European nation. You’ve just lost the capability to have an adult conversation so you’re in wind up mode ❤️

Belgium or Portugal 😂

Add San Marino to that list too 😂😂

So you was just waffling when you said any European leader. 
 

And now there’s talk about putting boots on the ground each country is coming up with their own ideas. Not a United Europe. As expected and as is always the case. 
 

Another stinker 

[boltonboris]

4 minutes ago, Spider said:

It’s almost like sovereignty is meaningless when there’s money in the ground.

imagine over a million young lads and lasses being blown to bits for cheap petrol.

 

It'll be the same in Taiwan once all this Ukraine and Palestine business is settled. 

Allow China to invade, then jump to the rescue and take all the semi-conductors

[royal white]

1 minute ago, boltonboris said:

By giving the Russians exactly what they want. I mean they have been giving him cash for about a decade now, so he does owe Putin something in return

Who says they’re giving Russia exactly what they want? You’re just guessing here aren’t you 

[boltonboris]

3 minutes ago, royal white said:

Imagine? We’ve  lived through it for the last 20 years. 

So why do you lust for more of it? Why do you defend a despot? As I've said before, Trump could slit the throat of one his followers kids and the parent would back him

 

It's a cult

[boltonboris]

1 minute ago, royal white said:

Who says they’re giving Russia exactly what they want? You’re just guessing here aren’t you 

I don't think it's a stretch to say Trump will allow the Russians to keep what they've annexed so far!!

[London Wanderer]

1 minute ago, royal white said:

So you was just waffling when you said any European leader. 
 

No mate

I specifically meant the small nations

Andorra, Gibraltar & Wales to be precise 😂

Some incredibly literal deciphering from you there Royal 😂

Need to get you back on the Biff & Chip books fella 

 

[royal white]

8 minutes ago, boltonboris said:

So why do you lust for more of it? Why do you defend a despot? As I've said before, Trump could slit the throat of one his followers kids and the parent would back him

 

It's a cult

What on earth are you on about? I’m saying completely the opposite. 

[royal white]

6 minutes ago, London Wanderer said:

No mate

I specifically meant the small nations

Andorra, Gibraltar & Wales to be precise 😂

Some incredibly literal deciphering from you there Royal 😂

Need to get you back on the Biff & Chip books fella 

 

So the U.K. and France then 😂 hows that playing out?  We won’t have peace talks we will just follow Americas lead. 
 

 

[wakey]

Confuses me this side of the forum.

If I've got it straight, the same people hailing Trump for stopping death and destruction don't seem too arsed about Israel razing Gaza to the ground. How's that work?

[Sweep]

2 minutes ago, royal white said:

So the U.K. and France then 😂 hows that playing out?  We won’t have peace talks we will just follow Americas lead. 
 

 

100%  - and this would be the case no matter which party was in Government, which is a sad state of affairs.

[London Wanderer]

2 minutes ago, royal white said:

So the U.K. and France then 😂 hows that playing out?  We won’t have peace talks we will just follow Americas lead. 
 

 

haha

 we’re getting there. no wonder you thought I was talking shite.

Belgium & Portugal 😂😂

 I need to remember how literally you take things at times. 

Let’s see if the US can get Ukraine most of their land back. Or let’s see if Putin is given the land he brutally stole. I hope it’s the first & I’d love Trump & his govn to succeed in that. But I think we have our reasons to be dubious. 

[London Wanderer]

5 minutes ago, wakey said:

Confuses me this side of the forum.

If I've got it straight, the same people hailing Trump for stopping death and destruction don't seem too arsed about Israel razing Gaza to the ground. How's that work?

Anything he does is brilliant to some.

It’s a bit of a weird cult whereby folk end up looking a bit daft. 

[London Wanderer]

23 minutes ago, boltonboris said:

So why do you lust for more of it? Why do you defend a despot? As I've said before, Trump could slit the throat of one his followers kids and the parent would back him

 

It's a cult

Worth pointing out that full sovereignty was given back to countries in the Middle East as well. 

[royal white]

5 minutes ago, London Wanderer said:

haha

 we’re getting there. no wonder you thought I was talking shite.

Belgium & Portugal 😂😂

 I need to remember how literally you take things at times. 

Let’s see if the US can get Ukraine most of their land back. Or let’s see if Putin is given the land he brutally stole. I hope it’s the first & I’d love Trump & his govn to succeed in that. But I think we have our reasons to be dubious. 

So again, try your best here, why didn’t France, us, Malta or Portugal have these talks? And don’t come back with all this “we respect their right to a sovereign nation” because after what’s been said over the last 24hrs that’s quite clearly bullshit.

[Bertie]

If the US/Trump can get ALL parties to agree a peace deal that most importantly Ukraine are happy with then I’ll be the first to applaud.  Today might just be the start of that.

That said, the optics from the initial meeting are truly awful.  You have Russia sat at the top table, as equals, talking to the US alone.  Aggressors not only have to be defeated they have to be seen to be defeated. The only way democracies and peace can prevail.

Sadly I suspect there is a long way to go.

[Cheese]

43 minutes ago, royal white said:

So again, try your best here, why didn’t France, us, Malta or Portugal have these talks? And don’t come back with all this “we respect their right to a sovereign nation” because after what’s been said over the last 24hrs that’s quite clearly bullshit.

It's pretty clear what LW is saying -  If European leaders decided "Let's start talks with Russia and offer them whatever they want to end the war", they could have quite easily done that. Bit like Chamberlain did in 1938 when they carved up Czechoslovakia and gave half of it to Hitler. That went well, eh?

Edited February 18, 2025 by Cheese