Coronavirus

[birch-chorley]

Think America have still had less deaths per million than we have 

Meanwhile their economy has only shrank by a third of what ours has with a similar sized service economy 

On the face of it I’d snap your hands off for that

[Spider]

34 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Think America have still had less deaths per million than we have 

Meanwhile their economy has only shrank by a third of what ours has with a similar sized service economy 

On the face of it I’d snap your hands off for that

I think they have some dark days ahead

Theres too many of them that don’t give a shit

[birch-chorley]

11 minutes ago, Spider said:

I think they have some dark days ahead

Theres too many of them that don’t give a shit

Potentially, let’s see where it finishes up (deaths per million), you’d imagine at the current rate they will finish with a marginally higher number than us by the time a vaccine is rolled out 

However their economy has performed significantly better than ours through this

The OECD has us 19 out of the G20, only Argentina will perform worse economically 

[athywhite1958]

8 hours ago, Not in Crawley said:

After 8 months, first time in a theatre, old Kenwright giving the big thank yous. All distanced but still had to brush past three folks to get to my seat. 

Theatre and producer running it at a loss just to try and get some confidence back. Going to be a long time. Still, its billing for our new company so not complaining, and we're opening The Understudy next week - good cast, including Emily Atack.

Can you get me  my mate a pair of her used panties please, I  he will pay you,

ta

[Youri McAnespie]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

Think America have still had less deaths per million than we have 

Meanwhile their economy has only shrank by a third of what ours has with a similar sized service economy 

On the face of it I’d snap your hands off for that

I'm sure you've flown over The States many a time - there's often fuck all down below for the time a flight over here could go from Aberdeen to Southampton...

Rather than take an average it'd be more indicative of the true state comparing stats like NYC v. London, Chicago v. Birmingham, Philadelphia v. Manchester etc.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Youri McAnespie said:

I'm sure you've flown over The States many a time - there's often fuck all down below for the time a flight over here could go from Aberdeen to Southampton...

Rather than take an average it'd be more indicative of the true state comparing stats like NYC v. London, Chicago v. Birmingham, Philadelphia v. Manchester etc.

Detroit v Birmingham 

[Youri McAnespie]

@boltondiver

Nah, whilst brummies are big city hillbillies, we've nowhere comparable to Detroit - we'd have to relocate the shitholes of every UK city and town into one newtown shithole, possibly based around Jaywick, Essex - and it'd still look like Sandbanks compared to Detroit

[birch-chorley]

20 minutes ago, Youri McAnespie said:

I'm sure you've flown over The States many a time - there's often fuck all down below for the time a flight over here could go from Aberdeen to Southampton...

Rather than take an average it'd be more indicative of the true state comparing stats like NYC v. London, Chicago v. Birmingham, Philadelphia v. Manchester etc.

I think it’s fair enough to look at total deaths per capita & total GDP. Anything else is over complicating it 

We will end up with a similar number of deaths (per million) and an economy that’s been hit three times as hard as them 

I’d take their numbers over ours 

[Youri McAnespie]

They've still got huge tech companies, a massive extraction industry, the biggest financial market in the world, a still strong manufacturing base, vast swathes of land given over to productive and profitable agriculture etc.

We're essentially a money-laundering midget pimp in comparison.

The population density is also incomparable, folk in the Midwest or Pacific-Northwest for example think nowt of travelling Manchester-Birmingham distances for a beer or a pizza or to watch a 'movie'...

Edit: We are however the world's foremost assembler of fold-up bikes - so not all doom and gloom. Oh aye, and our overpriced beardy weirdy 'Emperor's New Clothes' craft ale sector is also world class.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Youri McAnespie

[Tonge moor green jacket]

22 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I think it’s fair enough to look at total deaths per capita & total GDP. Anything else is over complicating it 

We will end up with a similar number of deaths (per million) and an economy that’s been hit three times as hard as them 

I’d take their numbers over ours 

Population density, average age/health, typical wealth all relevant. As is what is determined to be a covid death. Lots of factors at play.

It's not over complicating things when trying to achieve a meaningful comparison, which is going to be essential when nations review their methods to assess areas for improvement etc in a repeat event. 

[birch-chorley]

Ok, put it this way, if we had the same death rate per capita as the USA then we would have 5k less deaths so far 

If our GDP only was only to shrink by 3% (US projection) this year rather than 11% (our projection) our GDP would be £150bn better off this fiscal. For context that’s the total cost of running the NHS for a year, that sort of GDP drives around £50bn of additional tax revenue (the cost of running all of our high schools each year) 

Anyone who thinks America has done worse than we have needs their heads testing 

Plenty countries that are more densely populated countries than the U.K. have done much better for deaths per million (Korea etc). Plenty countries with a similar sized service sector as the U.K. have protected their economy much better than we have (France, Italy, Germany, USA) 

[Zico]

in terms of deaths, just go with excess deaths for similar sized countries and excess deaths per million to make any other comparison, job done

anything else is sticking your head in the sand in attempt to look good/bad depending on the point you're trying to make

[birch-chorley]

15 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

in terms of deaths, just go with excess deaths for similar sized countries and excess deaths per million to make any other comparison, job done

anything else is sticking your head in the sand in attempt to look good/bad depending on the point you're trying to make

Ok USA has had 300k excess deaths vs our 75k, which is a 4:1 ratio, population ratio is 5:1, so using excess deaths per capita the US has performed even better than the U.K. than if you look simply at Covid deaths per capita. In fact even with another spike now they are unlikely to overtake us in excess deaths per capita 

Meanwhile their economy has performed significantly better than ours, by 3 or even 4 fold, predominantly because of less restrictions on business / the economy 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by birch-chorley

[wiggy]

Sky News reporting that we will only be getting 800,000 doses of the vaccine before Christmas rather than the 10 million originally expected. Bollocks

[Guest]

1 minute ago, wiggy said:

Sky News reporting that we will only be getting 800,000 doses of the vaccine before Christmas rather than the 10 million originally expected. Bollocks

Boris out

[Tonge moor green jacket]

46 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Ok, put it this way, if we had the same death rate per capita as the USA then we would have 5k less deaths so far 

If our GDP only was only to shrink by 3% (US projection) this year rather than 11% (our projection) our GDP would be £150bn better off this fiscal. For context that’s the total cost of running the NHS for a year, that sort of GDP drives around £50bn of additional tax revenue (the cost of running all of our high schools each year) 

Anyone who thinks America has done worse than we have needs their heads testing 

Plenty countries that are more densely populated countries than the U.K. have done much better for deaths per million (Korea etc). Plenty countries with a similar sized service sector as the U.K. have protected their economy much better than we have (France, Italy, Germany, USA) 

Missing the point again.

What's the population density of France for example?

Korea already had a proper functioning t&t system following their previous experience of a mers outbreak. Also have a very different culture.

There isn't even total agreement on what constitutes a case of covid, let alone a covid death, so you're not even making a legitimate comparison amongst nations of the world.

I know you're very much driven by economic statistics etc, but I'll keep my scientific head on and use the knowledge I've gained in that area and wait until full and proper assessments to be made in the future.

That's how we'll develop methods dealing with such an eventuality.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

50 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

in terms of deaths, just go with excess deaths for similar sized countries and excess deaths per million to make any other comparison, job done

anything else is sticking your head in the sand in attempt to look good/bad depending on the point you're trying to make

See my other posts. Far more to it.

It's not about how one nation has performed in relation to another; thats jingoistic clap trap.

Its about understanding fully what nations did well and badly, what worked and what didn't, how the population responded and what they may do in the future. Then building on that knowledge base to provide solutions for the future.

Some of those elements will be scientific others may be political, financial whatever.

Just basing your future plans on death numbers without any further research thankfully wont happen.

Of course, many will make their own judgements that way, such is life.

[birch-chorley]

2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Missing the point again.

What's the population density of France for example?

Korea already had a proper functioning t&t system following their previous experience of a mers outbreak. Also have a very different culture.

There isn't even total agreement on what constitutes a case of covid, let alone a covid death, so you're not even making a legitimate comparison amongst nations of the world.

I know you're very much driven by economic statistics etc, but I'll keep my scientific head on and use the knowledge I've gained in that area and wait until full and proper assessments to be made in the future.

That's how we'll develop methods dealing with such an eventuality.

I think your clutching at straws, we’ve had a shocker with this from start to finish 

I’d understand if I was using some strange method to measure cases or excess deaths, I’m simply looking at the tables that get published on a regular basis by many media outlets / institutions. If the data wasn’t relevant then nobody would look at sharing it. Each day when they release total number of cases / deaths you don’t see anyone asking for the numbers to be pro rata based on population density 

Besides, countries like America, whilst vast, still have huge numbers who live on top of each other in densely populated Towns and Cities. It really isn’t a vastly different comparison to the U.K. 

My point is, I’d take their top line numbers any day over ours, those figures would have meant less deaths and a much better economic picture for the U.K. 

[Sweep]

24 minutes ago, wiggy said:

Sky News reporting that we will only be getting 800,000 doses of the vaccine before Christmas rather than the 10 million originally expected. Bollocks

There's a shock

[Sweep]

10 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

My point is, I’d take their top line numbers any day over ours, those figures would have meant less deaths and a much better economic picture for the U.K. 

So then, why do you think we're so bad? - Do you reckon it's our leadership, or the general public?  -  personally, I think both are to blame.

It's bonkers that this seems, thus far, to have affected us worse then pretty much anywhere else in the world economically

[Spider]

31 minutes ago, wiggy said:

Sky News reporting that we will only be getting 800,000 doses of the vaccine before Christmas rather than the 10 million originally expected. Bollocks

I reckon that’s bollocks.

They’ve realised the announcement will make people drop their guard and are doing some back-pedalling to reduce expectations.

Wouldnt be a bad idea.

[tyldesley_white]

5 minutes ago, Spider said:

I reckon that’s bollocks.

They’ve realised the announcement will make people drop their guard and are doing some back-pedalling to reduce expectations.

Wouldnt be a bad idea.

maybe you missed what i posted last night 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/pfizer-to-ship-half-as-many-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-as-originally-planned-in-initial-phase/ar-BB1bBWX9?ocid=msedgdhp

 

[Tonge moor green jacket]

18 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I think your clutching at straws, we’ve had a shocker with this from start to finish 

I’d understand if I was using some strange method to measure cases or excess deaths, I’m simply looking at the tables that get published on a regular basis by many media outlets / institutions. If the data wasn’t relevant then nobody would look at sharing it. Each day when they release total number of cases / deaths you don’t see anyone asking for the numbers to be pro rata based on population density 

Besides, countries like America, whilst vast, still have huge numbers who live on top of each other in densely populated Towns and Cities. It really isn’t a vastly different comparison to the U.K. 

My point is, I’d take their top line numbers any day over ours, those figures would have meant less deaths and a much better economic picture for the U.K. 

Of course the media focus on this stuff, why do you think that is?

However by watching the occasional more focused article or separate reading then its easy to ascertain that the generic stuff we get lacks depth.

You crack on with your own assessments; I'm thankful that governments and organisations like the who will undertake their own far more rigorous research to develop effective plans and not just respond to headline grabbing numbers.

This approach certainly isn't straw clutching, but in fact underpins proper scientific rigour in all sorts of fields. I know from personal experience and knowledge, and that was in an industry with a lower "safety threshold" than something like pandemic fighting. 

[birch-chorley]

15 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Of course the media focus on this stuff, why do you think that is?

However by watching the occasional more focused article or separate reading then its easy to ascertain that the generic stuff we get lacks depth.

You crack on with your own assessments; I'm thankful that governments and organisations like the who will undertake their own far more rigorous research to develop effective plans and not just respond to headline grabbing numbers.

This approach certainly isn't straw clutching, but in fact underpins proper scientific rigour in all sorts of fields. I know from personal experience and knowledge, and that was in an industry with a lower "safety threshold" than something like pandemic fighting. 

Ok then, so we have done a lot better than the US 

Crackers 

[birch-chorley]

41 minutes ago, Sweep said:

So then, why do you think we're so bad? - Do you reckon it's our leadership, or the general public?  -  personally, I think both are to blame.

It's bonkers that this seems, thus far, to have affected us worse then pretty much anywhere else in the world economically

Probably strategy, so leadership