Coronavirus

[Zico]

2 hours ago, birch-chorley said:

Ok USA has had 300k excess deaths vs our 75k, which is a 4:1 ratio, population ratio is 5:1, so using excess deaths per capita the US has performed even better than the U.K. than if you look simply at Covid deaths per capita. In fact even with another spike now they are unlikely to overtake us in excess deaths per capita 

Meanwhile their economy has performed significantly better than ours, by 3 or even 4 fold, predominantly because of less restrictions on business / the economy 

 

fair to say then we've made a right fucking mess of it, whatever way you look at it

thought so

[Zico]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

I think your clutching at straws, we’ve had a shocker with this from start to finish 

I’d understand if I was using some strange method to measure cases or excess deaths, I’m simply looking at the tables that get published on a regular basis by many media outlets / institutions. If the data wasn’t relevant then nobody would look at sharing it. Each day when they release total number of cases / deaths you don’t see anyone asking for the numbers to be pro rata based on population density 

Besides, countries like America, whilst vast, still have huge numbers who live on top of each other in densely populated Towns and Cities. It really isn’t a vastly different comparison to the U.K. 

My point is, I’d take their top line numbers any day over ours, those figures would have meant less deaths and a much better economic picture for the U.K. 

with all due respect, on this and many things @Tonge moor green jacketwill wait a while for all the numbers to be in and a objective judgement to be made before going "oh right, we did balls it up, quite a bit"

as for countries I agree - we have sparse areas to - compare East Anglia to the North West, big difference, but I'm still looking at excess deaths for the UK

likewise, I'll look at my poster boys Victoria/Melbourne, itself pretty much the size of a small country, and point out how it should be done, 35 days and counting, no new cases, masks to be made optional

Edited December 4, 2020 by ZicoKelly

[birch-chorley]

25 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

with all due respect, on this and many things @Tonge moor green jacketwill wait a while for all the numbers to be in and a objective judgement to be made before going "oh right, we did balls it up, quite a bit"

as for countries I agree - we have sparse areas to - compare East Anglia to the North West, big difference, but I'm still looking at excess deaths for the UK

likewise, I'll look at my poster boys Victoria/Melbourne, itself pretty much the size of a small country, and point out how it should be done, 35 days and counting, no new cases, masks to be made optional

To be fair, it was someone else that said ‘they didn’t realise what a mess America were in’ 

I was just pointing out that based on the top line numbers they have performed slightly better than us for deaths (total or excess) but significantly better than us economically - They are unquestionable facts as we sit here today 

If anyone would prefer our total numbers over theirs then they need to give their heads a wobble 

Edited December 4, 2020 by birch-chorley

[tyldesley_white]

10 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

To be fair, it was someone else that said ‘they didn’t realise what a mess America were in’ 

I was just pointing out that based on the top line numbers they have performed slightly better than us for deaths (total or excess) but significantly better than us economically - They are unquestionable facts as we sit here today 

If anyone would prefer our total numbers over theirs then they need to give their heads a wobble 

latest from across the pond

over 14m cases

over 276k dead

these will increase as the day goes on

[birch-chorley]

3 minutes ago, tyldesley_white said:

latest from across the pond

over 14m cases

over 276k dead

these will increase as the day goes on

Firstly, be careful you may get told off for using total deaths rather than excess, what are the US excess deaths? I’ve got them at 300k vs the U.K. at 75k so 4:1 vs 5:1 population ration.

By that measure the U.K. has performed 20% worse than the US per capita for excess deaths. Based on the current trajectory it’s likely to finish about the same I’d imagine, yet the US economy has performed 3 or even 4 times better than the UK’s (GDP) 

I’d snap your hand off for that 

[tyldesley_white]

3 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Firstly, be careful you may get told off for using total deaths rather than excess, what are the US excess deaths? I’ve got them at 300k vs the U.K. at 75k so 4:1 vs 5:1 population ration.

By that measure the U.K. has performed 20% worse than the US per capita for excess deaths. Based on the current trajectory it’s likely to finish about the same I’d imagine, yet the US economy has performed 3 or even 4 times better than the UK’s (GDP) 

I’d snap your hand off for that 

I don't know mate, to me dead is dead, its 270k empty seats at thanksgiving, 270k empty seat at Christmas 

[Sweep]

3 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

Firstly, be careful you may get told off for using total deaths rather than excess, what are the US excess deaths? I’ve got them at 300k vs the U.K. at 75k so 4:1 vs 5:1 population ration.

By that measure the U.K. has performed 20% worse than the US per capita for excess deaths. Based on the current trajectory it’s likely to finish about the same I’d imagine, yet the US economy has performed 3 or even 4 times better than the UK’s (GDP) 

I’d snap your hand off for that 

I don't know the answer to this, but how much has the US Government pumped into the system via QE, compared to the UK (or any other country for that matter) - whilst some of these countries may not be seeing as big a hit at present, are they maybe saving it up for a later day, by racking up larger amounts of debt than we are?  - I really don't know, and wouldn't know where to find the info

[Sweep]

Just now, tyldesley_white said:

I don't know mate, to me dead is dead, its 270k empty seats at thanksgiving, 270k empty seat at Christmas 

It's more likely to be 320K empty seats at Christmas 

[birch-chorley]

1 minute ago, tyldesley_white said:

I don't know mate, to me dead is dead, its 270k empty seats at thanksgiving, 270k empty seat at Christmas 

I shared the total Covid deaths before per capita 

If the U.K. had the same death rate per million of population then we would have 5k less dead people than we have 

Based on current trajectory, again your probably looking at us both ending up about flat with each other 

 

[tyldesley_white]

3 minutes ago, Sweep said:

It's more likely to be 320K empty seats at Christmas 

Unfortunately yes , i'm back to locking down again its just not worth the risk

I will await the jab

Also 100k are now in hospital

Edited December 4, 2020 by tyldesley_white

[DazBob]

We had furlough and stuff in place over here to help everyone out and avoid job losses.  Was anything similar put in place in the US?

 

[birch-chorley]

4 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I don't know the answer to this, but how much has the US Government pumped into the system via QE, compared to the UK (or any other country for that matter) - whilst some of these countries may not be seeing as big a hit at present, are they maybe saving it up for a later day, by racking up larger amounts of debt than we are?  - I really don't know, and wouldn't know where to find the info

Seem to be upper mid table in the G20 according to this...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107572/covid-19-value-g20-stimulus-packages-share-gdp/

Not sure why UK isn’t shown, think we are on track to spunk £400bn though, which is just shy of 20% of GDP, that would put us considerably higher than the US. However their 13% might just be year to date, our £400bn is a full year projection, safe to assume no massive variance in support though 

[tyldesley_white]

12 minutes ago, DazBob said:

We had furlough and stuff in place over here to help everyone out and avoid job losses.  Was anything similar put in place in the US?

 

The government gave loans to try and keep small bunnessis open ( this was to pay staff instead of laying them off, if they kept then employed they didn't need to pay the loan back) also those laid off, got an extra $600 per unemployment payment ( this runs out at the end of Dec)

 

The cost of that was $2 trillion

Edited December 4, 2020 by tyldesley_white

[royal white]

Aren’t out deaths per million, along with Italy and Spain more than Americas? 

[jmjhb]

884 to their 854

Belgium worst at 1467

[Winchester White]

52 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

To be fair, it was someone else that said ‘they didn’t realise what a mess America were in’ 

That was me, I didn't realise their 2nd wave was so bad. Cases have absolutely rocketed so in a short while deaths will increase also unfortunately.

Are there any lockdown rules tyldesley?

 

[tyldesley_white]

20 minutes ago, Winchester White said:

That was me, I didn't realise their 2nd wave was so bad. Cases have absolutely rocketed so in a short while deaths will increase also unfortunately.

Are there any lockdown rules tyldesley?

 

At the moment its just LA, the rest seem to be just plodding on, next week will be the test after a shit load of people went to see family at thanksgiving (something like 5 million flew)

The Dallas/fortworth area as just closed all bars and restaurant because it's gone over the 6% infection rate (per the governors rules when he let them reopen)

The real issue this time around is that it is really affecting the rural areas which it didn't do the first time around, and they don't have the ICU capacity if they have any at all, some small place don't even have a hospital

[birch-chorley]

1 hour ago, royal white said:

Aren’t out deaths per million, along with Italy and Spain more than Americas? 

Aye 

Yet our economy is on track to decline at between x3 or even x4 what theirs will 

Even Italy’s economy will perform significantly better than ours  

Spain is about the same as us that way, only Argentina out of the G20 a will come out worse than us (economically)  

[Boby Brno]

Lower than London now. 
Only a matter of time. #tier2

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Lower than London now. 
Only a matter of time. #tier2

Are we being judged as North West, though?

 

I don't think so

[Spider]

8 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Lower than London now. 
Only a matter of time. #tier2

Or tier 3 for london

[ZiggyStardust]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

I shared the total Covid deaths before per capita 

If the U.K. had the same death rate per million of population then we would have 5k less dead people than we have 

Based on current trajectory, again your probably looking at us both ending up about flat with each other 

 

If we had the same rate as New Jersey, The UK would have an extra 75,000 deaths.

The world would have an extra 13,000,000 dead bodies, if the NJ rate was worldwide

If the world had the same rate as Vermont, there would be an extra 600,000 people alive. The UK would have an extra 50,000 alive.

And just like States the US, Individual countries in Europe have fluctuating figures, unfortunately the UK is at the upper end.

So which US are you comparing us to ? Because if you compare ius to the US, you have to include us in teh Europe totals for fairness.

However, you can only really compare like for like, and comparing the US against teh Uk does not do this, for reasons such as :

 

Yet US policymakers had at least four advantages over their European counterparts in countries such as Italy and Spain that should have led to lower excess mortality rates than in Europe:

• First, there was more time to prepare. Genomic evidence suggests that Europe was the source of most infections that became evident in New York in early March. The US administration had three weeks’ more warning given the lag between initial rises in excess mortality in Italy and Spain versus the US Northeast. For the South, West and Midwest (accounting for 83% of the US population), the delayed spread of the virus should have provided an even greater advantage.
• Second, the US has a younger population⁴ and COVID-19 mortality is significantly correlated with age.
• Third,  the US has a lower population density than Europe as a whole and for large conurbations within, and viral spread is greater in more dense populations.⁵  
• Fourth, the later onset should have enabled US authorities to take advantage of rapidly improving medical knowledge and capacity (the nature of the disease, treatment regimes, testing capacity, and the effectiveness of policies such as social distancing and masks).

source: https://voxeu.org/article/us-excess-mortality-rate-covid-19-substantially-worse-europe-s

Compare us to Italy. Compare us to Germany. But not to the US, or China, or other countries that do not offer a valid comparison.

(And for what its worth, I think we did a shit job. We should have locked down harder, earlier, and then kept the airports shut. Life could then have returned to some sort of normality. IMHO of course).

 

[ZiggyStardust]

11 minutes ago, Boby Brno said:

Lower than London now. 
Only a matter of time. #tier2

Tier 2 - April. Not before I reckon.

They may however change what can and can't be done in T3. Especially when its impossible to keep London out of T3.

[Zico]

2 hours ago, tyldesley_white said:

I don't know mate, to me dead is dead, its 270k empty seats at thanksgiving, 270k empty seat at Christmas 

Aye, I'd have preferred tighter measures across the board

These aren't just numbers

Economies recover 

 

[Zico]

5 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

See my other posts. Far more to it.

It's not about how one nation has performed in relation to another; thats jingoistic clap trap.

Its not, I'm not Gavin Williamson

I'm looking around and thinking "how come they managed to get on top of it and we didn't"

Because we've never got on top of it 

I put life over economy, I'm disappointed

Birch is passionate about the economy, he's disappointed

I hope our leaders are better at Brexit