Coronavirus

[Escobarp]

5 minutes ago, Spider said:

Rudy, fire up the tits, I sense a new bout....

Plenty tits on here 

[ProfessorWoland]

4 minutes ago, Sweep said:

She's someone I would trust to give me wood.

[Escobarp]

Are the pubs open yet?

[Sweep]

1 minute ago, Escobarp said:

Are the pubs open yet?

nearly, only another 6 or so months mate

[Escobarp]

Just now, Sweep said:

nearly, only another 6 or so months mate

What’s a few months eh. Be here before we know it. 
 

Rudy’s big gay pile on is within sight 🍺

[ProfessorWoland]

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

nearly, only another 6 or so months mate

I hear there's a queue forming. 

[peelyfeet]

7 minutes ago, Spider said:

Rudy, fire up the tits, I sense a new bout....

I'm 6ft 4 an 18 stone, but I bet Tonge has gardeners forearms and an axe so I'm not going there 

[Spider]

Just now, peelyfeet said:

I'm 6ft 4 an 18 stone, but I bet Tonge has gardeners forearms and an axe so I'm not going there 

I'll be your promoter.

We can get a decent (socially dstanced) crowd for this. Lot of lads short on live sport and a match up between 2 big fellas will put bums on disinfected seats.

Llllllllllllllllets get ready to rumblllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

I'm 6ft 4 an 18 stone, but I bet Tonge has gardeners forearms and an axe so I'm not going there 

Like @only1swanny’s little brother 😁

[peelyfeet]

1 minute ago, Spider said:

I'll be your promoter.

We can get a decent (socially dstanced) crowd for this. Lot of lads short on live sport and a match up between 2 big fellas will put bums on disinfected seats.

Llllllllllllllllets get ready to rumblllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

haha - Tonge are you up for it - Clash of the Shiteans

[Rudy]

 

[peelyfeet]

29 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

 

We are both from a scientific background, but far more than science has to be applied, in particular just virology.

As far as you countryside quip goes- makes no sense and therefore isn't worthy of any more comment.

I'm going off info from here tonge - have a read if you've get a chance

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker

[Tombwfc]

1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Locking down earlier points to lives saved without a doubt, but no one really knows what then happens when these early lockdown countries unlock, Germany seem to have had a spike when they eased restrictions so its possible that early lockdown countries might catch up after they unlock, we will find out soon enough.      

 

It's really hard (almost impossible) to imagine any country releasing a lockdown to the point where they're more susceptible to the virus than they were before it. That'd be boderline negligent. So you'd expect, and sincerely hope, that the initial peak will be the worst any country suffers.

Take the UK for example, no lifting of measures will see us back where we were in early March - millions mixing at close quarters in pubs and at large events, people ramming onto public transport, no ability to test or track and trace cases, missing the months of valuable scientific study that we've had since. Even if you opened everything back up, the way people operate and interact has completely changed.

Us and a handful of other countries were out in our shorts and flip flops and got caught in a storm. Lockdown is heading indoors and, from that relative safety, anyone who ventures out should be able to stop themselves getting piss wet through.

[mickbrown]

1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said:

 And the government have to factor in how long folk will continue to abide by the lockdown, we are now seeing folk slowly returning to work, lockdown earlier folk return to work earlier.        

We didn’t lock down later than most because of that. We just got it wrong 

[peelyfeet]

34 minutes ago, ProfessorWoland said:

That second peak looked very nasty indeed on the Imperial College projection from mid March that influenced the change in strategy (page 10):

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Like you say, get that alongside a bad seasonal flu and we are back in the worst days and then some. 

 

restrictions and distancing will reduce seasonal flu spread too, so hopefully its not going to happen.

[Escobarp]

11 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

We didn’t lock down later than most because of that. We just got it wrong 

we most definitely did factor in the behavioral science into the decision when to lock down. That’s a big fat fact. And the behavioral science is still playing a huge part. Wasn’t the only driver but it was a driver nonetheless and to say otherwise is incorrect 
 

even the most ardent tory haters amongst you will admit that. Although maybe not your good self you may well be past that 

[Tombwfc]

Thought this was interesting, on the subject of people growing tired of lockdown and rebelling, from yesterday's Guardian.

Aren't most (if not all) of the people going back to work now, those that have never been stopped from doing so in the first place?

 

Quote

Hancock supported that, suggesting it was the result of official advice. “The evidence of past epidemics and past crises of this nature shows that people do tire of these sorts of social distancing measures, so if we start them too early, they lose their effect and actually it is worse,” he said. “The social science and the behavioural science are a very important part of the scientific advice that we rely on.”

Yet this concept of “fatigue” was rejected by the behavioural scientists appointed by the government itself to Sage’s subcommittee, SPI–B. “The word was never used in any of our committee reports,” said Susan Michie, a SPI-B member. “It is just not a concept that exists in behavioural science, and it was unhelpful for it to be used.” Four other members of SPI-B also told the Guardian that the committee never advised that people would tire of restrictive measures.

The publicly available summaries of their conclusions show the group advised that people should be given clear explanations and reasons for social distancing measures, and warn that those measures would affect people unequally, but nowhere do they suggest that people will become “fatigued”. Three behavioural scientists on SPI-B, Stephen Reicher, John Drury and Clifford Stott, even wrote an article for the Psychologist journal, rejecting the notion of “fatigue” and suggesting that delaying stricter social distancing measures on that premise was taking a risk with lives. “Psychological considerations were put at odds with what medical science demanded,” they wrote.

The Guardian understands that Halpern’s Behavioural Insights Team, or “nudge unit”, was also opposed to this view that people would tire of restrictive measures. One senior Whitehall source said Whitty himself was the main advocate of the “fatigue” notion, based partly on his own experience of patients in medical practice who do not see drug prescriptions through to their completion.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Tombwfc

[Farrelli]

Who was the behavioral Scientist the government used Dominic Cummings ?  

[Mounts Kipper]

1 hour ago, peelyfeet said:

The countries that locked down earlier are coming out of lockdown sooner than those that didn't, they're having shorter lockdowns, less deaths and starting the economy back up earlier, sorry but that is happening now, and in my book that's better.

What is the sweeping statement that I've made that's irked you?   

would you rather I just posted some links that show this?

Which countries are these? Not ones that are geographically remote or have very low populations, preferably countries similar to the UK both geographically and demographically and who have similar travel hubs like London. I can only think of one who are anything like us and are doing much better.      

Edited April 30, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Escobarp]

I was aware of this earlier in the week (client of ours)  but folk might find in interesting as the economic pressures are starting to bite even more. First of many this sadly 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cbwmagazine.com/shearings-owner-in-bid-to-avoid-administration/amp/

also further down the page something of interest as well about fuel cell technology Will post that in climate change for those that way inclined. 

[Zico]

2 hours ago, peelyfeet said:

 

Rome have had a fraction of Lombardy

Lombardy isn't even on the med

[mickbrown]

38 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

we most definitely did factor in the behavioral science into the decision when to lock down. That’s a big fat fact. And the behavioral science is still playing a huge part. Wasn’t the only driver but it was a driver nonetheless and to say otherwise is incorrect 
 

even the most ardent tory haters amongst you will admit that. Although maybe not your good self you may well be past that 

We were already late to the party. And as noted none of the behavioural scientists on SAGE even mentioned lockdown fatigue.

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by mickbrown

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

We were already late to the party. And as noted none fo the behavioural scientists on SAGE even mentioned lockdown fatigue.

 

I’m not talking about the timing as I think it’s Clear we were later. That’s indisputable. 
 

 I’m merely stating that behavioral science has played a part and continues to do so in our decision making. This is directly from the medical boffins and I think it was professor van tam who actually stated it. 
 

unless he was lying? 

[Zico]

3 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

We were already late to the party. And as noted none fo the behavioural scientists on SAGE even mentioned lockdown fatigue.

 

No but BJ definitely used it as an excuse/reason as to why we'd not gone into lockdown yet when others had and all Eyes were on Italy

[peelyfeet]

18 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Lombardy isn't even on the med

I picked Rome because its similar in size to Lombardy so its easy to compare; they've had 414 deaths - Lombardy 13.5K  - if you want to get granular you can look at any region in Italy, compare the populations, and death rates

Lombardy is miles ahead of anywhere - multiple times more cases and deaths

No other Italian region gets anywhere near -  and all the other regions are much closer to each other.

The pattern is the same if you compare cities in other countries

The areas that have fared worse are overwhelmingly the areas where they had early outbreaks and therefore the lockdowns took place later on in their timeline of pandemic spread.

There are reasons why the disease took hold earlier in Lombardy, London NYC etc,  including cultural factors, transport hubs, population density etc, but we shouldn't confuse that with the fact that all around the world we are seeing less deaths and earlier lockdown restrictions being lifted 

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet