Coronavirus

[radcliffe white]

5 minutes ago, Steejay said:

As you know, I've lost one or two phones since then...🙄

Sheffield away? 

[jayjayoghani]

17 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Let's wait and see what it's like when it's all over, before such proclamations eh.

Cultural factors have to come into play, population density, all the things you know about.

We've got plenty not adhering to rules because they're cunts. Scientists have to build in the cunt factor.

It's a bit cheap to simply say we should have done this, that and t'other: you and me might be willing to stay in lockdown but many others aren't.

We need to see what happens with regard to second peaks etc before making such statements.

I'll wait for full investigations by relevant parties before making judgements, I'm sure their conclusions will highlight any mistakes and make recommendations for the future

The President's brain is scattered across the back seat, but it's a lovely day for a car ride, and we might just still make the flight. 

[Mounts Kipper]

1 hour ago, ZicoKelly said:

it's not about political agendas or anything

It certainly is with some folk. 

Quote

you were adamant that we wouldn't have it as bad as Italy because the Mediterranean lifestyle means they are far more susceptible, or it was no coincidence that the hotspots were fashion hubs and all the chinese who went home to chinese new year probably worked in fashion etc

We have not had it as bad as Italy... yet and Spain is miles worse... granted our record on folk dying is grim enough as it is.  

it's nothing to do with that, and now it's shown we are getting as bad as anyone, you're now saying we're not as bad as belgium

don't forget Spain & Italy. And yes it is worse than I thought it might or could have been, definitely did not factor not enough PPE over a long period or that hospitalized  care home residents were not being tested after they returned to their care homes.

lets face it, it's bad, and pointing this out doesn't make you a traitor to the government

(Where have I said that makes you a traitor? ) if you check my posts early April I was critical of the government on PPE and the care sector being neglected) 

you also said "perhaps Trump has it covered." recently, but that was before his disinfectant comments

America doing better than many, and it wasn't a political point, just pointing out to folk who think he is always wrong that sometimes he might be right.  

it's not political point scoring at all, but don't get defensive because you've been pulled up in your flawed thinking, that's all it is

I am not defensive at all just pointing out that we are not 2nd worse in the world as some folk seem to glory in pointing out.

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Traf]

43 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

@peelyfeet what does mini peak mean? Calm before the storm?

Top of Plodder Lane for runners in the Bolton Marathon.

Thought you'd reached the top of the hill? Now tackle Smethurst Lane. 

[Mounts Kipper]

11 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

To be honest Mounts, you’re the other way. Insisting things ain’t that bad to push your political agenda. 

Except I have zero political agenda, I will type it again so you understand I have voted Labour all my life, except once and if Starmer can continue on his current sensible approach and get the utter wankers in the Labour party under control It is very possible will once again vote Labour.  

[Rudy]

3 minutes ago, Traf said:

Top of Plodder Lane for runners in the Bolton Marathon.

Thought you'd reached the top of the hill? Now tackle Smethurst Lane. 

Just wait until I get you running up Smithills dean road

[peelyfeet]

24 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Let's wait and see what it's like when it's all over, before such proclamations eh.

Cultural factors have to come into play, population density, all the things you know about.

We've got plenty not adhering to rules because they're cunts. Scientists have to build in the cunt factor.

It's a bit cheap to simply say we should have done this, that and t'other: you and me might be willing to stay in lockdown but many others aren't.

We need to see what happens with regard to second peaks etc before making such statements.

I'll wait for full investigations by relevant parties before making judgements, I'm sure their conclusions will highlight any mistakes and make recommendations for the future

There's no evidence to say that cultural factors have anywhere near as much bearing as timing of lockdowns 

Bristol have had hardly any deaths compared Birmingham 

Rome have had a fraction of Lombardy

Boston a fraction of NYC

Denmark a fraction of Sweden

there's hundereds of example

all similar populations and culturally similar - what's the main denominator - its timing of lockdown, not difference in culture. 

believe what you want mate, I'm just interpreting data. The governments of the world are imposing lockdowns and restrictions - they aren't telling us to move out to the countryside.

[Mounts Kipper]

41 minutes ago, Casino said:

It is if course possible that delaying kills more up front but less in the long run

Just chucking it out there 

And at some point, emotion is going to have to be taken out of this and consideration given to economics

 And the government have to factor in how long folk will continue to abide by the lockdown, we are now seeing folk slowly returning to work, lockdown earlier folk return to work earlier.        

[Mounts Kipper]

4 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

There's no evidence to say that cultural factors have anywhere near as much bearing as timing of lockdowns 

Bristol have had hardly any deaths compared Birmingham 

Rome have had a fraction of Lombardy

Boston a fraction of NYC

Denmark a fraction of Sweden

there's hundereds of example

all similar populations and culturally similar - what's the main denominator - its timing of lockdown, not difference in culture. 

believe what you want mate, I'm just interpreting data. The governments of the world are imposing lockdowns and restrictions - they aren't telling us to move out to the countryside.

Locking down earlier points to lives saved without a doubt, but no one really knows what then happens when these early lockdown countries unlock, Germany seem to have had a spike when they eased restrictions so its possible that early lockdown countries might catch up after they unlock, we will find out soon enough.      

Edited April 30, 2020 by Mounts Kipper

[Traf]

7 minutes ago, Rudy’s Message said:

Just wait until I get you running up Smithills dean road

Piece of piss compared to where I live 😉

[Escobarp]

2 minutes ago, Traf said:

Piece of piss compared to where I live 😉

My car struggled to get up your hill mate 😂😂

[mickbrown]

26 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Except I have zero political agenda, I will type it again so you understand I have voted Labour all my life, except once and if Starmer can continue on his current sensible approach and get the utter wankers in the Labour party under control It is very possible will once again vote Labour.  

Must be a different Mounts that’s spent the last 4 years banging on about Brexit and the Tories then. 
 

 

[peelyfeet]

2 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Locking down earlier points to lives saved without a doubt, but no one really knows what then happens when these early lockdown countries unlock, Germany seem to have had a spike when they eased restrictions so its possible that early lockdown countries might catch up after they unlock, we will find out soon enough.      

Can't see it happening in the west - they're monitoring the infection rate on a daily basis - restrictions will be reimposed ASAP if required, the health services are better prepared, populations are being more cautious,  we'll find ways to restart parts of the economy safely, they're prepared to do this for ages.

If a country decides to go rouge and just let the virus spread through naturally, and in countries that don't have facilities to restrict or economies that can't sustain it, then yeah, they'll overtake us for sure. If we dont get v good treatment or vaccine pretty soon, there will be countries that just let it rip through to a certain extent because long term restrictions will kill more through famine etc. 

 

 

 

  

 

[peelyfeet]

1 hour ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Let's wait and see what it's like when it's all over, before such proclamations eh.

Cultural factors have to come into play, population density, all the things you know about.

We've got plenty not adhering to rules because they're cunts. Scientists have to build in the cunt factor.

 

I

The Cunt Factor hahah

would love to see that on a graph during the daily briefings 

is that like the Krypton factor, but for Southerners, filmed in Essex instead of Granada studios 

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Spider]

39 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said:

Except I have zero political agenda

Allow me to bookmark this one.

It's just nudged "it is what it is" into 2nd place, which is some going.

[Casino]

A couple of my furlough musings

If jdw justify a re opening based on distancing, what about in and out of the bogs

And 2

Lets say airlines practise some form of distancing, how the fcuk do you get through mcr airport security in less than 3 weeks

[peelyfeet]

COVID SYMPTOM TRACKER

If you're not the type to think that Big Brother is collecting your data for Bill Gates world domination plans,

please download this app and record your symptoms on a daily basis - it's run by kings college London, it will help the UK in managing the spread and lockdown restricton removal and it tells you a rough estimate of how many are infected in your area.

takes about 5 mins to set up and 10 seconds a day to update

 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/ 

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[peelyfeet]

7 minutes ago, Casino said:

A couple of my furlough musings

If jdw justify a re opening based on distancing, what about in and out of the bogs

And 2

Lets say airlines practise some form of distancing, how the fcuk do you get through mcr airport security in less than 3 weeks

There's gonna be a lot more queuing everywhere - imagine the queuing required for an away day - queuing to get on/in the  platform, pub,  bogs, stadium, bogs,  pub, bogs,  platform, - gonna be very weird  

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Rudy]

1 minute ago, peelyfeet said:

There's gonna be a lot more queuing everywhere - imagine the queuing required for an away day - queuing to get on/in the  platform, pub,  bogs, stadium, bogs,  pub, bogs,  platform, - gonna be very weird  

We’re British, queuing is a sport to us

[Tonge moor green jacket]

51 minutes ago, peelyfeet said:

There's no evidence to say that cultural factors have anywhere near as much bearing as timing of lockdowns 

Bristol have had hardly any deaths compared Birmingham 

Rome have had a fraction of Lombardy

Boston a fraction of NYC

Denmark a fraction of Sweden

there's hundereds of example

all similar populations and culturally similar - what's the main denominator - its timing of lockdown, not difference in culture. 

believe what you want mate, I'm just interpreting data. The governments of the world are imposing lockdowns and restrictions - they aren't telling us to move out to the countryside.

Missing the point.

As can be clearly seen, we don't like to be good what to do generally.

Eastern nations don't mind, more used to it. Germany, despite its bigger infrastructure, seems more willing to follow the party line, though with some objections.

If you're purely interpreting data, then you need to wait until it's all available for such a sweeping statements. If we had locked down even earlier, banned folk from travelling to and from a lot earlier. That would have been even more effective initially. But we may have had civil unrest by now, an even greater economic downer, and potentially more indirect deaths through increased poverty in the long run.

We are both from a scientific background, but far more than science has to be applied, in particular just virology.

As far as you countryside quip goes- makes no sense and therefore isn't worthy of any more comment.

[peelyfeet]

6 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

Missing the point.

As can be clearly seen, we don't like to be good what to do generally.

Eastern nations don't mind, more used to it. Germany, despite its bigger infrastructure, seems more willing to follow the party line, though with some objections.

If you're purely interpreting data, then you need to wait until it's all available for such a sweeping statements. If we had locked down even earlier, banned folk from travelling to and from a lot earlier. That would have been even more effective initially. But we may have had civil unrest by now, an even greater economic downer, and potentially more indirect deaths through increased poverty in the long run.

We are both from a scientific background, but far more than science has to be applied, in particular just virology.

As far as you countryside quip goes- makes no sense and therefore isn't worthy of any more comment.

The countries that locked down earlier are coming out of lockdown sooner than those that didn't, they're having shorter lockdowns, less deaths and starting the economy back up earlier, sorry but that is happening now, and in my book that's better.

What is the sweeping statement that I've made that's irked you?   

would you rather I just posted some links that show this?

Edited April 30, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Spider]

Rudy, fire up the tits, I sense a new bout....

[Sweep]

[Rudy]

Sweep is my wingman

[ProfessorWoland]

1 hour ago, peelyfeet said:

It's just a manufactured peak, not a natural one - I doubt we'll have another one as bad as this now,

We're getting increasingly better at tracking tracing and isolating

It's awful to say, but a large number of the very very old and frail will have already died (It happens with seasonal flu - if a large number die from flu one winter, we usually see much less the winter after )

They are worried about the 2nd peak in Autumn onwards, because seasonal flu will be back then, and if you have both at the same time, its nasty

That second peak looked very nasty indeed on the Imperial College projection from mid March that influenced the change in strategy (page 10):

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Like you say, get that alongside a bad seasonal flu and we are back in the worst days and then some.