Traf Posted April 25, 2021 Share Posted April 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Zico said: We are 100% going up Been saying it for ages. UTFW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Rudy Posted April 26, 2021 Members Share Posted April 26, 2021 I might watch Cheltenham tomorrow and cheer on Carlisle Be great for 3 teams going into the final two games separated by 2 points, that would be exciting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MalcolmW Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 15 hours ago, jmjhb said: 89.1% chance of Top 3 4.2% 1st 28.9% 2nd 56.0% 3rd This is really where it gets fucking odd: 77 points gives a 65.7% chance of promotion but 78 points gives a 48.8% chance of promotion 79 obviously is 100% A sleepless night, either because my partner is awaitng her 11th grandchild or because I was trying to figure out the anomaly on 78 pts. I think that there is a transcription error and that the computer calculated 68.8% but a human interface wrote it down as 48.8%. After all, we do know that the only difference between going up on 77 and going up on 78 is if Cambridge lose twice and one, but not both, of Morecambe and Tranmere win twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted April 26, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Rudy said: I might watch Cheltenham tomorrow and cheer on Carlisle Be great for 3 teams going into the final two games separated by 2 points, that would be exciting As long as we're at the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 11 hours ago, captainmed said: Yes I didn’t even consider Cambridge. So therefore the point that the analysis is incorrect still stands. I think that this, along with my point, shows that the probability of going up with 78 points, is definitely HIGHER than the probability of going up with 77. There is no way we can be less likely to get promoted with more points. I like my maths stuff and it is not possible. Without working out all scenarios it could be the same but certainly not less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 26, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 26, 2021 10 hours ago, Zico said: I'm all for stats and stuff but to be arguing the toss over a 63.3% chance of going up or a 65.7% chance is in "never kissed a girl free of charge" territory Hang on, after 9 grand's worth of ale, I'm amazed you managed to compile a list of the most accurate tit assessors. That's dedication to nerdism (or should that be nippleism). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 26, 2021 Moderators Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, Tonge moor green jacket said: Hang on, after 9 grand's worth of ale, I'm amazed you managed to compile a list of the most accurate tit assessors. That's dedication to nerdism (or should that be nippleism). And i kissed all the girls in the pictures whilst going back over the previous games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 On 22/04/2021 at 10:45, Ani said: Let's be honest the typical Bolton way is beat Morecambe, lose next game, win last game. For once I would be happy to be only half right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUREADY2ROLL Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Been a strange season and who knows what’s going to happen. We could be top Saturday night or needing a win on the final day. As long as we are not in this league next season I don’t care Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burndens Bogs Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just win on Saturday & anything else after that is a bonus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Tonge moor green jacket Posted April 26, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 26, 2021 I've decided Tranmere won't win at FGR, and Morecambe may be a bit down and therefore will fail to beat Walsall. Point will be enough, so yes, we're going up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Best odds on us is 1/10 so bookies think it’s over. 🤞 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Best odds on us is 1/10 so bookies think it’s over. 🤞 https://racedays.co.uk/shortest-priced-losers/ Just saying like 🤪😜🤯 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Anyway how come bookies ain’t paying top7 finish out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, Mr Grey said: What did you get for that ? Maybe they are waiting for the season to end to pay out. Just £200 but few bookies have already paid out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ani Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 hour ago, radcliffewhite1 said: Anyway how come bookies ain’t paying top7 finish out? Bet365 have paid out top 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ani said: Bet365 have paid out top 7 Yes I believe so Hills are shit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 13 hours ago, radcliffewhite1 said: Anyway how come bookies ain’t paying top7 finish out? They're just holding the money for as long as they can. It will be under the guise that we've not finished in the top 7 yet, as the league is still on going.....I'm assuming they wait until final league standings in case something ridiculous, like points deduction for setting fire to the opposition goalkeeper or administration or something happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 27, 2021 Moderators Share Posted April 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sweep said: They're just holding the money for as long as they can. It will be under the guise that we've not finished in the top 7 yet, as the league is still on going.....I'm assuming they wait until final league standings in case something ridiculous, like points deduction for setting fire to the opposition goalkeeper or administration or something happens Total guess but some systems may be able to pay out on individual teams placings whereas others need the final top 7 in place before processing all payments across all teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Zico said: Total guess but some systems may be able to pay out on individual teams placings whereas others need the final top 7 in place before processing all payments across all teams that's probably more logical than my "setting fire to the opposition goalkeeper" thought 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Feelgood Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 Cash flow, hold on to cash in your bank as long as possible. Always a maxim in industry. Though I do recall Paddy Piwer paying out early on something which then, unexpectedly, didn't happen. The Paddy team were asked about this error & he shrugged his shoulders & said wtte of "we'll have it all back inside the month". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted April 27, 2021 Moderators Share Posted April 27, 2021 56 minutes ago, Dr. Feelgood said: Cash flow, hold on to cash in your bank as long as possible. Always a maxim in industry. Though I do recall Paddy Piwer paying out early on something which then, unexpectedly, didn't happen. The Paddy team were asked about this error & he shrugged his shoulders & said wtte of "we'll have it all back inside the month". Fred Done said something like the best thing he ever did in terms of PR and earnings was when he paid out dead early on Utd winning the title which Arsenal went on to win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traf Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Zico said: Fred Done said something like the best thing he ever did in terms of PR and earnings was when he paid out dead early on Utd winning the title which Arsenal went on to win Correct, the amount of press/media exposure they got would have cost far more in paid advertising, plus it made them out to be "good guys" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Good Knee Posted April 27, 2021 Site Supporter Share Posted April 27, 2021 Just thinking to meself, we could win the title by going top for the first time on the last day, bet thats not happened to many times?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burndens Bogs Posted April 27, 2021 Share Posted April 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Good Knee said: Just thinking to meself, we could win the title by going top for the first time on the last day, bet thats not happened to many times?. Perhaps we're gettin a bit Kevin Sheedy now - promotion would suffice!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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