Challengers next season?

[Zog1]

6 hours ago, captainmed said:

Playing the IE way you need to be bloody good to consistently win at this level.

He simply must be more flexible depending on both the opposition, the conditions & the way the game is going.

Automatic promotion will only be achieved by having better players than we currently have.

Definite exceptions being Santos &  Charles. Dempsey & Morley are good enough but lack consistency. You could also maybe get away with Johnston, Taol & maybe Jones? 

With exception of Charles though there are very few goals in there. 

Obviously we are massively weakened without Traf & Bradley. 

Pre-season is massive - some proper quality signings are needed who must hit the ground running.

That costs money & good recruitment is essential. The Jan signings really concerned me…….

I’m not saying we won’t finish top 2 but it definitely won’t be as easy as some think.

 

You're right. To get that automatic promotion spot you basically can't have an off month. 2nd Ipswich had 4 losses all season, that gulf between 100ish points and 81 is massive.

Not only are we "massively weakened without Traf & Bradley." our squad wasn't good enough WITH them.

Due to the way IE plays and the formation, our midfield isn't working it's essentially being bypassed in many cases and is switching off. We need a quality enforcer who will bring people into play.

[Casino]

1 hour ago, Johnnyrotten said:

We are only massively weakened if we don't sign adequate replacements though?  We can judge if those positions are weaker in August.  I'm holding out hope we strengthen in the keeper department (eg kicking and physicality), but that's easier said that done.  Bradley will be virtually impossible to replace like for like, but it opens up a place for a different type of player, eg a Sadlier type that likes having a long range shot.  

Im going out on a limb here

We are not getting a better keeper than Trafford

[DomRepWanderer]

41 minutes ago, Zog1 said:

You're right. To get that automatic promotion spot you basically can't have an off month. 2nd Ipswich had 4 losses all season, that gulf between 100ish points and 81 is massive.

Not only are we "massively weakened without Traf & Bradley." our squad wasn't good enough WITH them.

Due to the way IE plays and the formation, our midfield isn't working it's essentially being bypassed in many cases and is switching off. We need a quality enforcer who will bring people into play.

Fucking hell you're a source of great optimism, lets see how the Summer pans out FFS.

[Johnnyrotten]

32 minutes ago, Casino said:

Im going out on a limb here

We are not getting a better keeper than Trafford

I'm happy to see how that pans out, I'd be disappointed if the GK position was weakened enough to cost us points, given the relatively low number of difficult saves he was needing to make most games in this league. 

Not something that can be measured, but it isn't a concern for me, assuming we don't get another Crellin/Dixon.

[ZiggyStardust]

9 minutes ago, Johnnyrotten said:

I'm happy to see how that pans out, I'd be disappointed if the GK position was weakened enough to cost us points, given the relatively low number of difficult saves he was needing to make most games in this league. 

Not something that can be measured, but it isn't a concern for me, assuming we don't get another Crellin/Dixon.

its more than the saves, its the confidence he gives the defenders, meaning they dont panic, and he has to make less saves.

[Johnnyrotten]

8 minutes ago, ZiggyStardust said:

its more than the saves, its the confidence he gives the defenders, meaning they dont panic, and he has to make less saves.

Like I say I'm hopeful that will be achieved by our new keeper(s).  That's all part of why you sign keepers, having a presence and ability to organise.  Keith Branagan mk 2 would do nicely. 

[Zog1]

1 hour ago, DomRepWanderer said:

Fucking hell you're a source of great optimism, lets see how the Summer pans out FFS.

I want to be optimistic but honestly some of the transfer rumours and comments made by Sharon and IE have been worrying.

I'm not sure IE knows what a team that can beat League 1 looks like, nevermind compete in the Championship.

I maybe harking back a bit but that entire Toughsheet business worries me, based on Sharon's comments she picked Toughsheet for the naming rights because they're "Lifelong fans"...very strange if true. 

FV's business plan to "successfully and profitably operate a professional football club." seems to be counter to their current objective of reaching the Championship. To meet that objective significant investment in the squad is needed, in wages and or transfer spending. This would then make the team unprofitable especially in the short term. I dont think you can have your cake and eat it, in this respect. There was talk of using the "Preston model" of selling players for profit, without the understanding that it took them almost a decade to do this and they've been unprofitable since 2019.

It all sounds a bit amateur.

 

 

 

[DomRepWanderer]

6 minutes ago, Zog1 said:

I want to be optimistic but honestly some of the transfer rumours and comments made by Sharon and IE have been worrying.

I'm not sure IE knows what a team that can beat League 1 looks like, nevermind compete in the Championship.

I maybe harking back a bit but that entire Toughsheet business worries me, based on Sharon's comments she picked Toughsheet for the naming rights because they're "Lifelong fans"...very strange if true. 

FV's business plan to "successfully and profitably operate a professional football club." seems to be counter to their current objective of reaching the Championship. To meet that objective significant investment in the squad is needed, in wages and or transfer spending. This would then make the team unprofitable especially in the short term. I dont think you can have your cake and eat it, in this respect. There was talk of using the "Preston model" of selling players for profit, without the understanding that it took them almost a decade to do this and they've been unprofitable since 2019.

It all sounds a bit amateur.

 

 

 

OK lets go out and throw huge amounts of money at it. get promoted, then pay stupid wages, then end up like Wigan, now that sounds like a plan, whadya think?

[Zog1]

8 minutes ago, DomRepWanderer said:

OK lets go out and throw huge amounts of money at it. get promoted, then pay stupid wages, then end up like Wigan, now that sounds like a plan, whadya think?

That's my point... I think their business plan is a contradiction.

The issue is that even now, as limited as the squad is we're still losing money.

 

[DomRepWanderer]

4 minutes ago, Zog1 said:

That's my point... I think their business plan is a contradiction.

The issue is that even now, as limited as the squad is we're still losing money.

 

I'm done here, you're a not right.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

On 09/06/2023 at 20:33, Zog1 said:

I want to be optimistic but honestly some of the transfer rumours and comments made by Sharon and IE have been worrying.

I'm not sure IE knows what a team that can beat League 1 looks like, nevermind compete in the Championship.

I maybe harking back a bit but that entire Toughsheet business worries me, based on Sharon's comments she picked Toughsheet for the naming rights because they're "Lifelong fans"...very strange if true. 

FV's business plan to "successfully and profitably operate a professional football club." seems to be counter to their current objective of reaching the Championship. To meet that objective significant investment in the squad is needed, in wages and or transfer spending. This would then make the team unprofitable especially in the short term. I dont think you can have your cake and eat it, in this respect. There was talk of using the "Preston model" of selling players for profit, without the understanding that it took them almost a decade to do this and they've been unprofitable since 2019.

It all sounds a bit amateur.

 

 

 

I was willing to give you the benefit of doubt.

But nah, a fishing trip.

FV have been fantastic, and their appointments are gradually raising income and profile whilst maintaining and strengthening the community and fan based connections.

Everything Wigan could only dream of.

[Johnnyrotten]

27 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I was willing to give you the benefit of doubt.

But nah, a fishing trip.

FV have been fantastic, and their appointments are gradually raising income and profile whilst maintaining and strengthening the community and fan based connections.

Everything Wigan could only dream of.

I think every true fan gives a silent thanks for them on a regular basis.  Any decisions they make are OK by me and 99% of fans surely.

[BeeversLeftPeg]

On 09/06/2023 at 20:33, Zog1 said:

I want to be optimistic but honestly some of the transfer rumours and comments made by Sharon and IE have been worrying.

I'm not sure IE knows what a team that can beat League 1 looks like, nevermind compete in the Championship.

I maybe harking back a bit but that entire Toughsheet business worries me, based on Sharon's comments she picked Toughsheet for the naming rights because they're "Lifelong fans"...very strange if true. 

FV's business plan to "successfully and profitably operate a professional football club." seems to be counter to their current objective of reaching the Championship. To meet that objective significant investment in the squad is needed, in wages and or transfer spending. This would then make the team unprofitable especially in the short term. I dont think you can have your cake and eat it, in this respect. There was talk of using the "Preston model" of selling players for profit, without the understanding that it took them almost a decade to do this and they've been unprofitable since 2019.

It all sounds a bit amateur.

 

 

 

100% a fishing trip this.

Lifelong fans, who have paid the most amount of money for naming rights we've ever had. Surely it doesn't matter whether they support us or not if they have offered the most lucrative deal we've had for the naming rights?

[W.cramp]

1 hour ago, BeeversLeftPeg said:

100% a fishing trip this.

Lifelong fans, who have paid the most amount of money for naming rights we've ever had. Surely it doesn't matter whether they support us or not if they have offered the most lucrative deal we've had for the naming rights?

Aye.   He/she worries about transfer rumours.   That was enough for me.

[Mantra]

As pessimistic as Zog’s outlook is, there are valid concerns hidden in there. But they are concerns that every football club faces. The difference is, some clubs make huge gambles and others make smaller and safer bets. 

To be sustainable and ambitious is a difficult pairing to marry. But it is preferable to the Wigan method and by no means is it impossible.

 

If the EFL is a big a poker game, Wigan  decided that their strategy would be going “all in” on their hands, which worked initially but now they’ve lost all their money.
Whereas we’ve been making small calculated bets. And while we’ve not made a big profit yet, we’ve also not jeopardised our nest egg and look like we can keep playing all night. While Wigan are begging everyone to help them buy back in.

Leaving that analogy for some fagpacket maths:

If we signed three players who are 30+ years old but played in the championship last year, we might have to pay them £10k a week to lure them. 

Thats a £3m investment if we sign them on 2 year contracts. If it worked and we go up, then great but then they’ve got a year on their contract, they’re old, no one wants to buy them and they might not even be cut out to compete at that level anymore.

Or we could sign 20-26 year olds on half those wages, who we can tie down to longer contracts if they show promise and then sell for profit at a later date, hopefully after they’ve helped the club rise up the divisions.

It is all a big gamble - football - and we will make losses but at least ours look manageable and there’s some sort of long term strategy behind it rather than just throwing money in the hope of short term glory.

 

 

 

 

[Zog1]

2 hours ago, Mantra said:

As pessimistic as Zog’s outlook is, there are valid concerns hidden in there. But they are concerns that every football club faces. The difference is, some clubs make huge gambles and others make smaller and safer bets. 

To be sustainable and ambitious is a difficult pairing to marry. But it is preferable to the Wigan method and by no means is it impossible.

 

If the EFL is a big a poker game, Wigan  decided that their strategy would be going “all in” on their hands, which worked initially but now they’ve lost all their money.
Whereas we’ve been making small calculated bets. And while we’ve not made a big profit yet, we’ve also not jeopardised our nest egg and look like we can keep playing all night. While Wigan are begging everyone to help them buy back in.

Leaving that analogy for some fagpacket maths:

If we signed three players who are 30+ years old but played in the championship last year, we might have to pay them £10k a week to lure them. 

Thats a £3m investment if we sign them on 2 year contracts. If it worked and we go up, then great but then they’ve got a year on their contract, they’re old, no one wants to buy them and they might not even be cut out to compete at that level anymore.

Or we could sign 20-26 year olds on half those wages, who we can tie down to longer contracts if they show promise and then sell for profit at a later date, hopefully after they’ve helped the club rise up the divisions.

It is all a big gamble - football - and we will make losses but at least ours look manageable and there’s some sort of long term strategy behind it rather than just throwing money in the hope of short term glory.

 

 

 

 

The thing a lot of people seem to forget about the PL and Championship days is we didn't spend crazy, often spending £10s of millions less per year than say Aston Villa, Stoke, Sunderland, QPR, in both wages and transfer fees. 

The difference is we spent poorly and let players like Tal Ben Haim go for nothing. Too often we signed good players on short contracts because it was cheap and poor players on long contracts, with the hope they'd become world beaters. 

Our biggest issue was our previous owner (Eddie) pulling the plug so suddenly, there wasn't enough time for a real owner to come in, to top it off we were sold to Ken Anderson, who lets be honest was in no position financially to be running a football club.

Fundementally speaking we're no different from any of those clubs, we just happened to not get taken over at the right time by someone with boat loads of cash. Hell Fulham got taken over in 2013 for 200m with potential revenues far lower than us. Yet they spent net £40 million last year just in transfers, and stuggle to fill the 22k seat Craven Cottage.

My issue is that even now we're still hemorrhaging money when we're being "safe", one has to ask is being safe even an option or is it just a slow death?

 

 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Zog1

[Mantra]

2 hours ago, Zog1 said:

The thing a lot of people seem to forget about the PL and Championship days is we didn't spend crazy, often spending £10s of millions less per year than say Aston Villa, Stoke, Sunderland, QPR, in both wages and transfer fees. 

The difference is we spent poorly and let players like Tal Ben Haim go for nothing. Too often we signed good players on short contracts because it was cheap and poor players on long contracts, with the hope they'd become world beaters. 

Our biggest issue was our previous owner (Eddie) pulling the plug so suddenly, there wasn't enough time for a real owner to come in, to top it off we were sold to Ken Anderson, who lets be honest was in no position financially to be running a football club.

Fundementally speaking we're no different from any of those clubs, we just happened to not get taken over at the right time by someone with boat loads of cash. Hell Fulham got taken over in 2013 for 200m with potential revenues far lower than us. Yet they spent net £40 million last year just in transfers, and stuggle to fill the 22k seat Craven Cottage.

My issue is that even now we're still hemorrhaging money when we're being "safe", one has to ask is being safe even an option or is it just a slow death?

 

 

position might be different now but our wages were lower than our income according to this 

we did still make a significant loss however but it’s at least it’s manageable. Wigan apparently need 5 million to just get to July. Just to put things in context. We’re certainly not fully sustainable yet but if we can get to a point where we’re doing profitable transfer business by “spending money to make money” in our current ownership model, then we will be fine.

Were not wadded but we’re not skint either 

[Casino]

The playing assets when we played coventry, for example, were nil

We could, if we wanted, sell the first team, go back to that and have a few million to bank

Obviously we wouldnt do that, but that in itself is a measure of how we have progressed

[Zico]

Last season I did £100 each way on the title, £100 on promotion and £200 on to 6 

Won £500 so broke even 

Wasn't sure if to do the same this season but if we're second favourites at 8/1, and 11/4 to go up and Sharon says the aim is automatic then I probably should.  

I'll be £80 down if we finish top 6 but don't go up 

Surely we finish top 6 though 

£1485 if we win the title 

About £850 I think if we come second  

About £575 if we go up in play offs 

£420 if we finish top 6

[Traf]

What price for top 6?

 

[Wanderlust]

The 3 teams coming down plus Barnsley should surely be ahead of us in terms of being favourites for promotion at this stage - and if they’re not I don’t understand why they aren’t - unless the bookies are trying to manipulate the market in their favour. Not that the current squads are likely to be the same when the season kicks off - and nobody knows how the transfer window will pan out anyway.

For us to be contenders, we need a good goalie, retain our better defensive players and to sort out our core weakness which IMO is to  solve the riddle of having a midfield that can be bullied and depends on forwards dropping back to help out which is detrimental to our attacking threat. And the current midfield doesn’t contribute enough goals or create enough chances either despite the occasional flair. Our flair midfielders are too inconsistent.
There’s no doubt we occasionally play some attractive stuff, but I sometimes think we’d have more success with 5 Dempsey’s in front of a back 3 - a battling midfield with energy, grit and enough quality and movement to create and score rather than the likes of Sheehan and Morley who are a bit lightweight. As a group, the midfield needs a bigger more robust engine with quality to win this league IMO.

I can certainly live without another season of impotent possession. We know that Dion, Victor and JDB can score if they’re given shooting opportunities inside the box and the back row are OK  so I’d like to see the war chest spent on a goalie (with Hutch as back up) and the rest on the midfield so that our strikers can focus on what they do best in the areas they need to be.

[Casino]

'Hutch'

Neck on block, wont see next june with us

Why would you be happy to see an untried kid as our keeper for 20 (+) games?

[BeeversLeftPeg]

Reading charged by the EFL.

2/3 relegated clubs starting on minus points?

[RUREADY2ROLL]

2 minutes ago, BeeversLeftPeg said:

Reading charged by the EFL.

2/3 relegated clubs starting on minus points?

Yes looks like it; Reading have a number of charges to answer so could get more points deducted than Wigan

[Leyther_Matt]

50 minutes ago, Casino said:

'Hutch'

Neck on block, wont see next june with us

Why would you be happy to see an untried kid as our keeper for 20 (+) games?

Read this the other day. Can certainly see where we would fit in to quite a few of the things mentioned in terms of loan goalkeepers etc

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/the-loophole-clubs-are-using-to-create-fake-no2-goalkeepers-for-their-substitute-benches

Feel sorry for Hutchison as he was genuinely impressive on loan at Colls but he’s effectively lost a season or more of his development playing in the low intensity of the B team when in reality he needed a season of being knocked about in the Conference North