Farrelli Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: That doesn’t answer my question. They may not have diverted other beds yet. I think that was done last time so that ICU had more capacity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 The latest bullshit trend I've seen on social media, that the covid sceptics are now saying, is rises in covid deaths over the next coming weeks will realy be flu deaths, or if not, people who would have died of flu anyway. Their argument is that flu/pneumonia deaths so far this year is below the average - which is true, we are at 60k flu/pneumonia death YTD, whereas the 5yr average is 77K - however we were already 6K below average from the first few weeks of the year, when covid wasn't here, and you'd expect the restrictions to have an effect on flu deaths anyway. These are the same folk who a few weeks ago were saying the extra cases wouldn't result in any extra hospitalisations and deaths, in Summer were saying there would be no 2nd wave, and before that were saying the total deaths per year would even itself out at the end of the year ( covid has just killed some people a bit early that's all). It's bollox. So far Total deaths in the UK YTD is 463K The 5 year average YTD is 409K - the highest is 435K For us not to have by far the highest Total yearly deaths of the last 5yrs, we are going to have to have record low deaths over the next 12 weeks - Theres no sign this is going to happen. The Total deaths over the last 4 weeks is 3% over the average and rising. I think we'll end up with about 60K extra deaths above the average, by the end of the year, which is about 10% more folk dying than in an average year, and 5% more than a nomally really bad year, If we continue with restrictions. If they suddenly decide to go for herd immunity, which I cant see, it will be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted October 19, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Perhaps peely can answer this why are we seeing ICU beds running out now when we have a relatively low number of deaths compared to April/May. The treatments are improving, the average age of those in the beds is probably a bit lower. So survival rates are up but only thanks to improved treatment. They still need treating. It's back to protecting the NHS it seems. I want to crack on, but being logical, that's looking less and less likely. Unless we start running a raffle for whether you get treated or not once capacity is reached. Not sure you'd fancy that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farrelli Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Mounts Kipper said: We never even used the nightingales so wasn’t that skin of the teeth. Most were full in April so it was by the skin of their teeth. The lockdown just about prevented hospitals being overridden. We don't want to go there again. Also, the nightingales needed staffing and that would have stretched resources to breaking point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted October 19, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Spider said: Unless we start running a raffle for whether you get treated or not once capacity is reached. Not sure you'd fancy that? No, because that's the lottery they faced in Italy when they got overwhelmed If there is one bed and 5 People need it, they give it to the one most likely to survive, so the older you are, the more chance you have of being turned away That's what cracking on means Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: The treatments are improving, the average age of those in the beds is probably a bit lower. So survival rates are up but only thanks to improved treatment. They still need treating. It's back to protecting the NHS it seems. I want to crack on, but being logical, that's looking less and less likely. Unless we start running a raffle for whether you get treated or not once capacity is reached. Not sure you'd fancy that? Almost half the folk dying at the last peak were in care homes - that's not happening so far, so it has a big impact on overall deaths figures. Treatments are working better, triage is better, treatmet is earlier, vulnerable are shileding more, non covid wards are better protected. The virus isnt getting any less virulent - people who get a large dose, with a poor immune system for what ever reason can die easily - 5% of over 75's, around 15% over 85's. It's a lot of people if you extrapolate it out. In the West, Black African and Carribean, and Indian and Pakistani heritage Males 2.5 times more likely to die, after socio economic/ comorbidities, multi generation household, occupational factors have been ruled out. 2.1 for women. some think its Vitamin D - could be, might be something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mounts Kipper Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, peelyfeet said: Almost half the folk dying at the last peak were in care homes - that's not happening so far, so it has a big impact on overall deaths figures. Treatments are working better, triage is better, treatmet is earlier, vulnerable are shileding more, non covid wards are better protected. The virus isnt getting any less virulent - people who get a large dose, with a poor immune system for what ever reason can die easily - 5% of over 75's, around 15% over 85's. It's a lot of people if you extrapolate it out. In the West, Black African and Carribean, and Indian and Pakistani heritage Males 2.5 times more likely to die, after socio economic/ comorbidities, multi generation household, occupational factors have been ruled out. 2.1 for women. some think its Vitamin D - could be, might be something else. Do you think we will see deaths rise towards a 1000 a day again? Edited October 19, 2020 by Mounts Kipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Do you think we will see deaths rise towards a 1000 a day again? I'm expecting by November/December that we'll be pushing up towards that sort of number, maybe closer to 750/800 a day......unless these measures that we're taking now, really do make a difference. My main issue/concern now is when the students come home for either half term or Christmas, and start spreading the lurgy all over the place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peelyfeet Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Mounts Kipper said: Do you think we will see deaths rise towards a 1000 a week again? Nope, can't see them allowing it, we'd shut down before it got that bad. The rate of increase is slower than before, by a lot, which gives us much more notice.I expect we'll see 200 ish for a few weeks, its not going to get much better anytime soon. Depends how well the restrictions work. Next few weeks is going to be worse than the last few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted October 19, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, Mounts Kipper said: Do you think we will see deaths rise towards a 1000 a day again? Should we wait until it does before taking action? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MancWanderer Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Mounts Kipper said: Perhaps peely can answer this why are we seeing ICU beds running out now when we have a relatively low number of deaths compared to April/May. Not wishing to sound condescending but ICU beds are used for a lot more than COVID This is the time of year when the pressure ramps up on ICU with admissions due to pneumonia and other respiratory conditions especially. Happens every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Spider said: Should we wait until it does before taking action? Look at the chart; much steadier and slower than March/April Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jol_BWFC Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, ZicoKelly said: No, because that's the lottery they faced in Italy when they got overwhelmed If there is one bed and 5 People need it, they give it to the one most likely to survive, so the older you are, the more chance you have of being turned away That's what cracking on means The grandmother of a very good friend of mine was admitted to hospital with COVID 19 during the spring peak. The hospital was short of ICU beds. She was refused a ventilator because they were keeping it for younger people who were more likely to survive. She passed away the next day without any family being allowed to see her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter MickyD Posted October 19, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Jol_BWFC said: The grandmother of a very good friend of mine was admitted to hospital with COVID 19 during the spring peak. The hospital was short of ICU beds. She was refused a ventilator because they were keeping it for younger people who were more likely to survive. She passed away the next day without any family being allowed to see her. Whilst this is tragic, I’m not sure what the NHS staff were supposed to do. Did she have other issues? From what we’re hearing most deaths attributed to Covid were down to the underlying conditions and the Covid simply expedited the expected death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Zico Posted October 19, 2020 Moderators Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, MickyD said: Whilst this is tragic, I’m not sure what the NHS staff were supposed to do. Did she have other issues? From what we’re hearing most deaths attributed to Covid were down to the underlying conditions and the Covid simply expedited the expected death. there's nothing they could do, that's the point if you overwhelm hospitals they are left with these decisions, and the decision will always favour treating those perceived as younger/fitter/stronger and better equiped to beat it so those saying crack on must be ready to acccept they or someone close to them may get turned away (depsite their best efforst to shield) in favour of a student, for example, who's been going out on the piss every night and to covid parties and generally not giving a fuck am taking it to the extreme there, but, that's how it would be, generally (IMO) and how I understand hospitals operate might be wrong still think it's best not to risk it and find out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted October 19, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 I don’t have any relatives over 60, so it turns out I don’t give a fuck. Lets crack on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 No announcement on mcr more fucking talking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little whitt Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Spider said: I don’t have any relatives over 60, so it turns out I don’t give a fuck. Lets crack on. 😂😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweep Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, radcliffewhite1 said: No announcement on mcr more fucking talking MCR is going Tier 3, everybody knows it, it's just now down to how much money they'll settle for to go about it quietly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leigh white Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sweep said: MCR is going Tier 3, everybody knows it, it's just now down to how much money they'll settle for to go about it quietly Every day since Saturday was a Brucie Bonus in GM, should i stray a mile over the border to Cheshire for a pint ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, Spider said: I don’t have any relatives over 60, so it turns out I don’t give a fuck. Lets crack on. My 75 year old dad thanks you for your concern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radcliffe white Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Sweep said: MCR is going Tier 3, everybody knows it, it's just now down to how much money they'll settle for to go about it quietly Course is it just need to get a move on so businesses can move forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted October 19, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, mickbrown said: My 75 year old dad thanks you for your concern Whatever I'm younger and therefore get priority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mickbrown Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Spider said: Whatever I'm younger and therefore get priority. My 73 year old mother on the other hand, told you to get fucked 😀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Site Supporter Spider Posted October 19, 2020 Site Supporter Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, mickbrown said: My 73 year old mother on the other hand, told you to get fucked 😀 She's always been a feisty one, your mam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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