Slow news day? The real deal? End of the world? 
 

They’re saying it probably came from an animal, has Somebody been shagging monkeys again? 

12 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

If you look at debt as a % of GDP over time...

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/

Labour inherited a level of circa 35% from the Conservatives in 1997. Many Conservatives will tell you Labour inherited a good hand in 1997. In 2008 pre financial crisis the level was still 35%! By 2010 after bailing out the banks and stimulating the economy it was 65%. Ten years of conservative government and Boris inherited 85% 

Post Covid we are looking at 120% 

It would appear from those numbers that the vast majority of our debt has been incurred on the Conservatives shift, yet that’s the party that bang on about debt being someone else’s fault 

I’m sure that a few years ago when there was the same debate, someone posted a research paper which showed the conservatives governments actually increased debt more than labour governments.

27 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

No 

Through my rose tinted specs, don’t blame labour for the global crash in 2008 if you aren’t happy about this one being blamed on the Conservatives, you can’t have it both ways 

I see you r point but one is a crash and one is a crisis, totally different scenarios.

We could only judge this government if there is a crash again, not a crisis.

Cheers Micky. 
 

I’ll fucking off lockdown this weekend and going seeing  my mam and dad. 

9 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

As I sometimes outline; we didn’t really have austerity.

I think HS2 will go.

Depends on who 'we' is. I'm guessing you didnt have it for a kick off. 

3 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Cheers Micky. 
 

I’ll fucking off lockdown this weekend and going seeing  my mam and dad. 

6 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

Cheers Micky. 
 

I’ll fucking off lockdown this weekend and going seeing  my mam and dad. 

🤣🤣🤣🤣

10 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

As I sometimes outline; we didn’t really have austerity.

I think HS2 will go.

I tend to agree, but then again Boris came out only a few months ago to say it was the end of austerity so you can’t blame folk for thinking that’s what it was 

I think that (austerity) was the original plan, then we were heading for a double dip recession early into that first term (about 2012) and the goalposts got pushed back from a target of 2015 to 2020 (which funnily enough was the Labour plan in the 2010 manifesto) 

Ive voted for all three major parties at one time or another (in a GE) so I’m not some sort of blinkered Labour activist. 

On your point about HS2 I think you might be right, certainly seems like a quick easy win. Especially if all this working from home stuff really kicks off long term like they are saying. HS2 isn’t about speed, it’s about capacity, if businesses swing towards technology and away from travel then you can make a solid case for canning the whole thing (need to get stuck into the superfast broadband nationwide though and 5g) 

2 hours ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I doubt very much it was paid for, certainly in its entirety.

You're in business, you don't pay up front before your goods come in from China.

Might be a bit different now, since lockdown accepted.

You clearly know more about my business than I do. We have to pay for a lot of stuff up front, at point of shipping, probably from about 50% of our suppliers in reality.

In this instance, I've no doubt at all we'd have paid upfront for it, although as I mentioned, they told us what they were sending and we accepted it, without checking the approvals, so it's our error. The fact we didn't send anybody over to check the product, or request samples is incredible. No sane business places large orders for any product without seeing samples first

Edited May 23, 20206 yr by Sweep

31 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

If you look at debt as a % of GDP over time...

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/334/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/

Labour inherited a level of circa 35% from the Conservatives in 1997. Many Conservatives will tell you Labour inherited a good hand in 1997. In 2008 pre financial crisis the level was still 35%! By 2010 after bailing out the banks and stimulating the economy it was 65%. Ten years of conservative government and Boris inherited 85% 

Post Covid we are looking at 120% 

It would appear from those numbers that the vast majority of our debt has been incurred on the Conservatives shift, yet that’s the party that bang on about debt being someone else’s fault 

So bigger debt than ever and we will soon be looking at numbers of unemployed not seen since the Maggie/Major era.

Although for now,  plenty won't need to work while Rishi is throwing money around as generously as this.

 

1 minute ago, Roger_Dubuis said:

So bigger debt than ever and we will soon be looking at numbers of unemployed not seen since the Maggie/Major era.

Although for now,  plenty won't need to work while Rishi is throwing money around as generously as this.

 

You underestimate  the scale of the problem. What’s coming our way will make previous economic downturns look like the Xmas rush 

 

I know of at least 2 major companies with serious numbers of UK employees who are currently in restructuring talks with their banks and backers and if those talks don’t go well hold on to your hats. 
 

it’s like a tower of cards this and someone is about to open the front door 

Just now, Escobarp said:

You underestimate  the scale of the problem. What’s coming our way will make previous economic downturns look like the Xmas rush 

 

I know of at least 2 major companies with serious numbers of UK employees who are currently in restructuring talks with their banks and backers and if those talks don’t go well hold on to your hats. 
 

it’s like a tower of cards this and someone is about to open the front door 

Absolutely, this is a depression that's coming, not a recession. It's going to be very, very deep and very, very long. It won't be nice at all, anybody who thinks it'll all be OK within a few months is in cloud cuckoo land I reckon

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

Absolutely, this is a depression that's coming, not a recession. It's going to be very, very deep and very, very long. It won't be nice at all, anybody who thinks it'll all be OK within a few months is in cloud cuckoo land I reckon

Just been on wireless that from august the furlough scheme is 64% gov 16% company. That’s going to topple a few 

1 minute ago, Sweep said:

Absolutely, this is a depression that's coming, not a recession. It's going to be very, very deep and very, very long. It won't be nice at all, anybody who thinks it'll all be OK within a few months is in cloud cuckoo land I reckon

Yep and a further hit to trade from a 'no deal' brexit would be devastating for the poorest in our society. The government could mitigate that but won't because they are pig headed. 

3 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Yep and a further hit to trade from a 'no deal' brexit would be devastating for the poorest in our society. The government could mitigate that but won't because they are pig headed. 

Ah great so you’ve seen the inner workings of the government and know the result of our trade talks. Excellent. Please tell

the class?

 

 

I’m not so sure, deep absolutely, lots of casualties in the short term yes, but does it have to be that long lasting? It’s a confidence game pure and simple 

The government is borrowing money with negative interest rates, so they borrow £50bn and pay back £49bn over ten years, it’s free money! 

Again if the government can’t show confidence by investing in a recovery then why will anyone else? Keep the big guns out and stimulate the arse out of recovery, investing in people producing rather than sitting at home. We need to accept that we will pay the debt off over 20-40 years rather than 5-10. 

The key thing is getting back to normal ASAP, this social distancing stuff needs kicking into touch soon. Too many businesses just can’t operate whilst ‘socially distancing’ so something has to give 

It was all about protecting the NHS, job done! We’ve built up capacity now, have the ventilators etc. Once the contact tracing stuff is up and running and we have squashed this first peak I’d like to see us let the thing run it’s course 
 

Politics is wank

1 minute ago, birch-chorley said:

I’m not so sure, deep absolutely, lots of casualties in the short term yes, but does it have to be that long lasting? It’s a confidence game pure and simple 

The government is borrowing money with negative interest rates, so they borrow £50bn and pay back £49bn over ten years, it’s free money! 

Again if the government can’t show confidence by investing in a recovery then why will anyone else? Keep the big guns out and stimulate the arse out of recovery, investing in people producing rather than sitting at home. We need to accept that we will pay the debt off over 20-40 years rather than 5-10. 

The key thing is getting back to normal ASAP, this social distancing stuff needs kicking into touch soon. Too many businesses just can’t operate whilst ‘socially distancing’ so something has to give 

It was all about protecting the NHS, job done! We’ve built up capacity now, have the ventilators etc. Once the contact tracing stuff is up and running and we have squashed this first peak I’d like to see us let the thing run it’s course 
 

Free money is money you don’t have to pay back. Simple as that. So it isn’t free money 

1 minute ago, Escobarp said:

Ah great so you’ve seen the inner workings of the government and know the result of our trade talks. Excellent. Please tell

the class?

 

 

Based on their actions so far but if they change course then great. However, I'm not confident they will. The first thing they did after the election was to put an amendment forward to prevent any extension to negotiations with the EU beyond December 2020. You will claim this was a tactic but it looks quite stupid now.

4 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Ah great so you’ve seen the inner workings of the government and know the result of our trade talks. Excellent. Please tell

the class?

 

 

Amazing isn't he ? Farrelli the Fortune Teller......talk about being entrenched.

Zzzz

6 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

Based on their actions so far but if they change course then great. However, I'm not confident they will. The first thing they did after the election was to put an amendment forward to prevent any extension to negotiations with the EU beyond December 2020. You will claim this was a tactic but it looks quite stupid now.

It was a tactic. Put in place before the pandemic. 
don’t forget the wee important nugget here. 
the eu are on their arse too so they want no deal about as much as I want a day in the pub with you. 

Edited May 23, 20206 yr by Escobarp

12 minutes ago, Sweep said:

You clearly know more about my business than I do. We have to pay for a lot of stuff up front, at point of shipping, probably from about 50% of our suppliers in reality.

In this instance, I've no doubt at all we'd have paid upfront for it, although as I mentioned, they told us what they were sending and we accepted it, without checking the approvals, so it's our error. The fact we didn't send anybody over to check the product, or request samples is incredible. No sane business places large orders for any product without seeing samples first

So not all stuff up front then?

Can't say I've ever encountered a business where much is paid up front.

Just talking to a chap recently who buys meat products in from all over for his business (dog food).

His suppliers started requesting up front payment because of fears their customers may go tits up in this crisis. Prior to that, he has a an account like others and pays when it's due.

Was pretty much the same when I worked in the chemical industry and with businesses I deal with now.

Perhaps the Chinese have you by the bollocks, I don't know.

As for the products the government ordered, do we know they weren't promised them to a certain specification?

Under the circumstances, I can understand some relaxation of normal practices and not checking quality previously. 

Even if samples were provided, it is possible those delivered were substandard.

 

5 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

I was a tactic. Put in place before the pandemic. 
don’t forget the wee important nugget here. 
the eu are on their arse too so they want no deal about as much as I want a day in the pub with you. 

We are both on our arse.  The point remains that a complex negotiation has had an unnecessary time limit imposed by our government.  All parties knew it was a tight timetable but Boris and co were showboating after their election win.  That now looks rather silly IMO as it could have been more flexible.  Anyway, there is time yet for them to change course and if Cummings gets binned that may be possible.

14 minutes ago, Escobarp said:

Free money is money you don’t have to pay back. Simple as that. So it isn’t free money 

Eh? 

If you borrow £50bn and only pay back £49bn then that’s £1bn of free money as you don’t have to pay it back 

3 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

We are both on our arse.  The point remains that a complex negotiation has had an unnecessary time limit imposed by our government.  All parties knew it was a tight timetable but Boris and co were showboating after their election win.  That now looks rather silly IMO as it could have been more flexible.  Anyway, there is time yet for them to change course and if Cummings gets binned that may be possible.

There is always time in any negotiation until the deadline has passed. And even then there’s often time but in this case that wouldn’t be possible. 
 

you’ve already ruled out the government making any changes to this stance in an earlier post haven’t you? 
 

I liked the tactic when it was put in place as I’m an aggressive negotiator. But I also know when to back off and back down. I suspect the government will do so if appropriate