Coronavirus

[Winchester White]

https://www.facebook.com/BBCQuestionTime/videos/1518006615054415/

[Boby Brno]

23 minutes ago, Casino said:

1 case if person is 90 is likely an issue

100 cases aged 20, likely isnt

Youve got to dig deeper than cases

Hospitalisation figures as a percentage of cases wil surely be lower this time round as we are now catching more of the young asymptomatics

Sure but it’s all about controlling the spread. 100 20 year olds could soon become 1,000 etc.

[Casino]

they could, indeed should, be isolating

Edited November 18, 2020 by Casino

[Sweep]

28 minutes ago, Casino said:

i know somebody who thinks they are likely working boxing day giving out vax

Does that put you on Christmas Dinner duty?

[Casino]

does it bollocks

Ill be having a lie in 

Turkey gets done on christmas eve, anyway

[MickyD]

Unless they’re students?

[only1swanny]

Does anyone know anybody who has been hospitalised with it?

 

Found out today that they don't retest you even if the symptoms improve, and apparently they will send people home, then they and their family have to self isolate for 14 days just to be sure. 

[Burndens Bogs]

I’m obviously no expert, but I’d love to know the percentage of people who have actually caught the virus as a direct result of visiting pubs/eating out/socialising and the likes. My guess would be not very many at all and that Schools/Uni’s/Hospitals/Care homes are the real breeding grounds for the rapid spread of the virus. Shutting shops/pubs/restaurants and stopping people mixing is just like using a sticking plaster on a decapitation imo - bluffing through until a successful vaccine is rolled out.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Burndens Bogs

[Sweep]

33 minutes ago, Burndens Bogs said:

I’m obviously no expert, but I’d love to know the percentage of people who have actually caught the virus as a direct result of visiting pubs/eating out/socialising and the likes. My guess would be not very many at all and that Schools/Uni’s/Hospitals/Care homes are the real breeding grounds for the rapid spread of the virus. Shutting shops/pubs/restaurants and stopping people mixing is just like using a sticking plaster on a decapitation imo - bluffing through until a successful vaccine is rolled out.

I've no doubt that schools are the main culprit now, with kids bringing it home and passing to parents. They should have shut the schools at the start of the lockdown, until the new year

[Tombwfc]

38 minutes ago, Burndens Bogs said:

I’m obviously no expert, but I’d love to know the percentage of people who have actually caught the virus as a direct result of visiting pubs/eating out/socialising and the likes. My guess would be not very many at all and that Schools/Uni’s/Hospitals/Care homes are the real breeding grounds for the rapid spread of the virus. Shutting shops/pubs/restaurants and stopping people mixing is just like using a sticking plaster on a decapitation imo - bluffing through until a successful vaccine is rolled out.

 

I suppose this is where we'll find out - pubs, restaurants and non essential retail are shut, schools are open.

Early days, but there seems to be some sign that cases have at least levelled off in the Tier 3 areas, if not fallen. That would suggest that transmission in hospitality settings is at least some kind of factor.

Anyway, saw yesterday that the number of people currently in hospital is 16,000 vs 19,500 at the peak back in April. Which would suggest that some form of drastic action was neccessary.

[MickyD]

10 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I've no doubt that schools are the main culprit now, with kids bringing it home and passing to parents. They should have shut the schools at the start of the lockdown, until the new year

That wouldn't allow parents to go out working and I fear that's the sticking point. 

[Guest]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-masks-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-/amp?__twitter_impression=true

[birch-chorley]

I think fucking up the education of millions of kids whilst stopping millions more parents from working is far too high a price to pay. Certainly over 9 months anyway 

Seems clear that with hindsight you would do a Taiwan and close your boarders early on. They limited the number coming in then tracked and traced properly to reduce cases to less than a thousand during the whole crisis. Easier said than done though, I recall Trump stoped flights coming in from China back in February and he was slaughtered for it, even the WHO stuck the boot in (they don’t have clean hands here either). A month later we were all in full lockdown!

Many of the Far Eastern countries fared well but they have had previous I suppose. They adopted face masks early, many of them before Covid, the WHO was still advising against them well into the Summer. The other thing is track and trace, because these countries had previous experience they were set up with systems in place to do it properly, including legislation to tap people’s phones so you can see who they have come into contact with 

I’d forgive our government for its initial response, we were just too far behind the curve with it. However the handling through late summer and into Autumn has been a shambles 

out of all the countries you could only really make a case for Spain fairing worse than the U.K. economically (of the developed nations) 

[Sweep]

47 minutes ago, birch-chorley said:

I think fucking up the education of millions of kids whilst stopping millions more parents from working is far too high a price to pay. Certainly over 9 months anyway

I said a few weeks ago, we can get around that, just cancel this school year, and from next year the school leaving age is raised by one year..... Obviously its not that simple, but it would ensure that the kids don't miss out, as I'm sure this year hasn't been great for them with regards to learning.

[birch-chorley]

3 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I said a few weeks ago, we can get around that, just cancel this school year, and from next year the school leaving age is raised by one year..... Obviously its not that simple, but it would ensure that the kids don't miss out, as I'm sure this year hasn't been great for them with regards to learning.

Sorry mate but in one hand it feels like your saying it’s ok to lock kids down indefinitely away from their friends and education 

On the other it’s unfair to ask the vulnerable to lock themselves down indefinitely even though they are the ones at risk 

If we are going to ask one group to pay such a high price then it should be the group that are at highest risk, not the children, many of which (youngest) don’t understand what’s really going on 

[Zico]

11 hours ago, Casino said:

they could, indeed should, be isolating

Aye, should

We should've had testing and track and trace in place and up to the standard it needed to be before reopening, we certainly had the time and money

A combination of that and discipline and compliance of the public is what is required

And the odd strict circuit breaker lockdown

That would keep cases down and in turn everything else

We've not really got to where we need to be with any of that

So here we are

Like spider said, weak leadership and a country of apes

Edited November 19, 2020 by ZicoKelly

[Zico]

1 hour ago, birch-chorley said:

Id forgive our government for its initial response, we were just too far behind the curve with it. However the handling through late summer and into Autumn has been a shambles 

Aye, initially it was "new" to everyone so you can't be so critical, particularly of the public response

But in my experience, when you want to be good at something, you look to others with experience and learn from them

Some countries did, some didn't, it's hard to dispute the results

[Ani]

Read the article below. Pretty damning  about our response not from a political view but basically all the science was based on shit data. 
 

In any walk of life shit data leads to shit decisions. Not saying someone is to ‘blame’ but following the science is tough when the science is flawed. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54976192

[Tonge moor green jacket]

12 hours ago, Casino said:

1 case if person is 90 is likely an issue

100 cases aged 20, likely isnt

Youve got to dig deeper than cases

Hospitalisation figures as a percentage of cases wil surely be lower this time round as we are now catching more of the young asymptomatics

1 90 year old very unlike to spread it.

100 20 year old could be the start of something much bigger.

[Tonge moor green jacket]

21 minutes ago, Ani said:

Read the article below. Pretty damning  about our response not from a political view but basically all the science was based on shit data. 
 

In any walk of life shit data leads to shit decisions. Not saying someone is to ‘blame’ but following the science is tough when the science is flawed. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54976192

Its been said by one of the 'crew' (maybe whitty, can't remember) that they were caught out by the level of community infection early doors and were playing catchup. 

[Zico]

1 hour ago, Ani said:

Read the article below. Pretty damning  about our response not from a political view but basically all the science was based on shit data. 
 

In any walk of life shit data leads to shit decisions. Not saying someone is to ‘blame’ but following the science is tough when the science is flawed. 
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54976192

I'll give them February and some of March

but we knew what was coming by mid March

Ireland did and shut down schools on 12th (after WHO made it an official pandemic) and  - on the 15th they shut all pubs/hospitality, 2 days before St Patricks Day - Varadkar did so saying we must protect our loved ones

we then had Cheltenham and waited till the 23rd before Boris said we need to shutdown, and expect some loved ones to die (a full week after Hancock, in the commons, said we should stop socialising)

that's not followign the science at all

[Ani]

17 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

I'll give them February and some of March

but we knew what was coming by mid March

Ireland did and shut down schools on 12th (after WHO made it an official pandemic) and  - on the 15th they shut all pubs/hospitality, 2 days before St Patricks Day - Varadkar did so saying we must protect our loved ones

we then had Cheltenham and waited till the 23rd before Boris said we need to shutdown, and expect some loved ones to die (a full week after Hancock, in the commons, said we should stop socialising)

that's not followign the science at all

The comments in the article about Care Homes are quite telling. Feels like they thought they were self contained communities and did not realise crossover into community. 
Also pretty clear we never got a grasp on number of cases early on. So we thought there were about 100 cases but probably in 1000s so growth was a lot quicker. 
Have posted before about quickly this grew. On 6th March went to pub with 5 mates from round here  talk was about ‘why such a fuss’. Week later Uni reunion talk was ‘not sure we should be here.’  The Friday 13th was Cheltenham. Week after lock down. 

[Zico]

2 hours ago, Ani said:

The comments in the article about Care Homes are quite telling. Feels like they thought they were self contained communities and did not realise crossover into community. 
Also pretty clear we never got a grasp on number of cases early on. So we thought there were about 100 cases but probably in 1000s so growth was a lot quicker. 
Have posted before about quickly this grew. On 6th March went to pub with 5 mates from round here  talk was about ‘why such a fuss’. Week later Uni reunion talk was ‘not sure we should be here.’  The Friday 13th was Cheltenham. Week after lock down. 

yeah, get all that, like I said, there is some leeway

but Ireland starting shutting down 11 days before us

Hancock said we need to do something on the 16th

so we did on Monday 23rd

even though we knew it was coming the week before

nowt to do with science, this is why I firmly beleive they put the economy first all along

and you're right about some not realising the crossover into the community - March 3rd, SAGE advise "against greetings such as shaking hands and hugging, given existing evidence about the importance of hand hygiene"

on the same day BJ goes on about he shook hands with all the covid patients he'd met

flawed data or not, he was ignoring it

Edited November 19, 2020 by ZicoKelly

[Tonge moor green jacket]

2 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

yeah, get all that, like I said, there is some leeway

but Ireland starting shutting down 11 days before us

Hancock said we need to do something on the 16th

so we did on Monday 23rd

even though we knew it was coming the week before

nowt to do with science, this is why I firmly beleive they put the economy first all along

I'm not so sure: they genuinely had no idea as to the actually level of infection and were acting  on that. Obviously a level of economic influence in it, but I reckon we'd have shut down much earlier if we'd had a means of more accurately identifying case number. 

[Zico]

2 minutes ago, Tonge moor green jacket said:

I'm not so sure: they genuinely had no idea as to the actually level of infection and were acting  on that. Obviously a level of economic influence in it, but I reckon we'd have shut down much earlier if we'd had a means of more accurately identifying case number. 

bar Belarus and Moldova, we were the last European country to offer out any sort of "national recommendations" (even Sweden did that a week before us) and pretty much the last to lockdown

everyone else had an inkling what was coming and acted swiftly

after the weekend of Wimbledon away (7th) we started to cancel social plans and kept outside contact to a minimum

all you had to do was look at what was sweeping it's way from the east to know that you had to act quickly