Coronavirus

[Sweep]

1 minute ago, Mr Grey said:

639 deaths today according to the Express. Down on last week.

the number doesn't appear to be going up, which is a good thing, hopefully we're on the slow descent now

[Guest]

Just now, mickbrown said:

As in in a GE? 
 

Now we both know that won’t happen. 

It most certainly will

By December 2024; has to, by law

[mickbrown]

1 minute ago, boltondiver said:

It most certainly will

By December 2024; has to, by law

You know very well what I mean, you scamp

[mickbrown]

39 minutes ago, Spider said:

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop	Total Tests	Tests/ 1M pop
World	3,085,023	+22,508	212,528	+1,079	934,549	1,937,946	56,365	396	27.3
USA	1,010,507	+151	56,803	+6	139,162	814,542	14,186	3,053	172	5,696,928	17,211
Italy	199,414		26,977		66,624	105,813	1,956	3,298	446	1,789,662	29,600
Spain	232,128	+2,706	23,822	+301	123,903	84,403	7,764	4,965	510	1,345,560	28,779
France	165,842		23,293		45,513	97,036	4,608	2,541	357	463,662	7,103
UK	157,149		21,092		N/A	135,713	1,559	2,315	311	719,910	10,605
Belgium	47,334	+647	7,331	+124	10,943	29,060	876	4,084	633	220,204	19,000
Germany	158,768	+10	6,136	+10	117,400	35,232	2,409	1,895	73	2,072,669	24,738
Iran	92,584	+1,112	5,877	+71	72,439	14,268	2,983	1,102	70	442,590	5,269

 

I know they say it's a global problem, but we're likely to end up 2nd/3rd in this table (if we add in the ONS figures we're already 2nd).

Why have we suffered much worse?

Fuck all to to do with the way we handled it apparently. 

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, mickbrown said:

You know very well what I mean, you scamp

😎

[Ani]

Jesus this threads goes round in circles. 
 

Every country has different circumstances and different approaches. It is impossible to say who has got it ‘most right’ or ‘most wrong’ at this stage. 
My missus is convinced NZ has got it spot on. But how are they going to stop the virus hitting there at some point? They can not shut their borders forever. But if a vaccine or cure come along they will look good. 
For us the whole strategy has been keeping this at manageable levels and we seem to have done that , although the non hospital deaths may change that view. 
If we had locked down three weeks earlier we would now be coming out of it. Then what happens with the second wave ? If it is as bad or worse do we lock down again ? 
Only overtime will know how we have done. The scientist types say they are learning every day and are making recommendations based on what is known at a particular point. So let’s be honest no one knows how this turns out. I think the Govt will be judged on very much based on the second peak and how close that is to the original. 

[Ani]

32 minutes ago, Sweep said:

the number doesn't appear to be going up, which is a good thing, hopefully we're on the slow descent now

The chart showing the rolling 7 day average is I think most useful and it does show that. 
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-51768274

Edited April 28, 2020 by Ani

[Guest]

Well, I never

 

behalf of the Labour Party.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

Media Guido

 

@MediaGuido

· 1h

Panorama’s PPE Investigation Was Party Political Broadcast https://order-order.com/2020/04/28/panoramas-ppe-investigation-party-political-broadcast…

Show this thread

 

 

[Farrelli]

5 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

Well, I never

 

behalf of the Labour Party.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

Media Guido

 

@MediaGuido

· 1h

Panorama’s PPE Investigation Was Party Political Broadcast https://order-order.com/2020/04/28/panoramas-ppe-investigation-party-political-broadcast…

Show this thread

 

 

So the findings were untrue? It doesn’t matter who requested it if the information is accurate. Things like covid being taken off the HCID list in March is either true or false. If the government did not influence this it should be said immediately. 

[Tombwfc]

1 hour ago, ProfessorWoland said:

It's going to be a complex question to answer. I don't think it will be as simple as when did you enter lockdown or how severe were the restrictions. There'll be questions of urban and rural geography, environment, healthcare, social care, housing, social mobility, cultural norms amongst different sectors of the population, etc etc.

Then there's the potential for a second wave come the autumn which in those Imperial projections looks bloody terrifying. Is that less or more virulent? Do countries with high initial exposure have a strong second half of the fixture? Are there improvements in treatment on the way which will change the rules of the game?

To me it all comes down to testing. We need proper accurate figures, don't really trust any countries at the moment. We need comprehensive tests to work out fatality rate accurately and we need to know about immunity. I don't understand why we've made so little progress with this, we were supposed to have made a good start on tests but they don't appear to be very accurate and they've not been able to scale them as the infection spread.  

 

 

 

It's strange in that there hasn't been many theories as to why it's been so bad over here. When Italy were going through it, it was supposed to be because they had an older population, more large families living together and an overwhelmed health service. The official line for us is that we've made no mistakes, been led by the science and kept capacity in the NHS at all times.

It can't be just bad luck that an island 8,000 miles from the virus outbreak would suffer around the worst in terms of deaths.

[mickbrown]

My favourite Guido tweet, when he didn’t realise how targeted advertising works. 
 

 

[dave2980]

10 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

So the findings were untrue? It doesn’t matter who requested it if the information is accurate. Things like covid being taken off the HCID list in March is either true or false. If the government did not influence this it should be said immediately. 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

Having read the above, in my opinion it was rightly removed from the HCID list.

On a slightly different subject the list of current HCID's are all handled in CL4 labs (or Biosafety Level 4 based on WHO guidelines). There are 9 facilities in the UK that are up to that standard of safety and some of those are classified as SAPO 4 which deal with animal pathogens and not human pathogens. You don't build labs to that standard of safety in a week (or on the cheap either!)

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Farrelli said:

So the findings were untrue? It doesn’t matter who requested it if the information is accurate. Things like covid being taken off the HCID list in March is either true or false. If the government did not influence this it should be said immediately. 

The point is that people are less likely to believe if the messenger has poor integrity.

Which is why rating of journalists are at  1%.

The media are letting the people down.

In my view.

[peelyfeet]

4 hours ago, Casino said:

Peely, remind me

What is the estimate of how many have had it and what is the logic used to reach that figure

sorry for late reply - trying to sell some internet connections!

The smart thinking all along has been that around 0.8%  of the infected will die (CFR - Case fatality rate) in areas with decent healthcare and where the ICU's don't get overloaded,

This has been the figure since we got data from South Korea in Jan, and it still stands up today with all the other results we've had from multiple reliable countries. Areas with really good tracing, early testing and good healthcare provision, e.g. Germany,  show that it could be lower.

So If you have the number of deaths, you can work back from this to see how many have been infected - if we do this today with 21k deaths reported, you get 2.6 million infected. 

But that doesn't take into account newly infected people and those who haven't died or recovered yet, so you need to estimate how many that is. You can do this roughly by forecasting the deaths for the next 3 weeks.

The rolling 7 day average at the moment is 627 per day  - it was 747 for the previous week - if we carry on this pattern it means there's roughly  525 per day next week, 440 the week after, 370 after that , another 9.3k deaths, so another 1.2 million infected - 3.8 mill in total

We then need to add on the backdated deaths published by NHS - which has been another 9% so far - so 4.14 million 

We then need to add on those dying outside of hospital - this is where it gets tricky, because we don't have good data 

The ONS stats suggest  we need to add on up to an extra 55% of deaths above the PHE figure, (40% above the NHS figure), but this is an up to - and may include some deaths from other stuff.

To be conservative I'd add on another 30%, but because the chances of the infected dying in care homes is much higher than 0.8% because of the very old and comorbid population  (and going off what we know about the amount of really  old people that present to hospital and what can see in the ICU) I bet it's nearer 10% CFR for them, which means we add on another 2.5%, so 4.25 Million, infected today .

 

No-one in the govmt is going to stick their hat on this because its open to wild interpretation, but if you look at countries with very high proportion of tests, the figures are pretty similar - UAE shows 0.78% CFR so far (they've tested a 10th of the country)  

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Ani]

13 minutes ago, boltondiver said:

The point is that people are less likely to believe if the messenger has poor integrity.

Which is why rating of journalists are at  1%.

The media are letting the people down.

In my view.

But to be fair the ones most likely to put their neck on the line are those with political involvement. The quiet ones are still the quiet ones. The gobby ones speak up. Surely time and effort goes into answering the question rather then going all Trump and attacking the person asking the question. 

[ProfessorWoland]

36 minutes ago, Tombwfc said:

 

It's strange in that there hasn't been many theories as to why it's been so bad over here. When Italy were going through it, it was supposed to be because they had an older population, more large families living together and an overwhelmed health service. The official line for us is that we've made no mistakes, been led by the science and kept capacity in the NHS at all times.

It can't be just bad luck that an island 8,000 miles from the virus outbreak would suffer around the worst in terms of deaths.

 

I don't think geographic distance is much protection in the age of jet travel. London in particular is an international transit hub and there's a lot of trade and tourism links with China and the Far East. 

I wonder if we'll learn something about the underlying state of peoples health in this country?I've also seen air pollution mentioned as a potential factor, maybe we've something to address there too?

[Spider]

The media - led by Lord FuckfacecuntpisswankGibbon Piers Morgan - are shite. 

But now, more than ever. The scrap for our attention has never been more intense now we’re all bored, scared, on our arses.

[Zico]

3 hours ago, Sweep said:

I don't know if/when they'll ever add these into the numbers  - you see now they always refer to "in hospital" and I assume they'll keep posting those figures on a daily basis, I don't see them suddenly having a day where they post an extra +7000 cases, to incorporate the non hospital fatalities - I'd like to see the real number (I'm not actually sure why though)

Hancock just said from tomorrow their numbers will include outside of hospitals as well

[peelyfeet]

1 hour ago, Tombwfc said:

 

It's strange in that there hasn't been many theories as to why it's been so bad over here. When Italy were going through it, it was supposed to be because they had an older population, more large families living together and an overwhelmed health service. The official line for us is that we've made no mistakes, been led by the science and kept capacity in the NHS at all times.

It can't be just bad luck that an island 8,000 miles from the virus outbreak would suffer around the worst in terms of deaths.

The major factor for the scale of deaths in this mini peak is down to the timing and stringency of restrictions and the methods used to track, trace and isolate cases,  from the date that community spread was present in the population,  for definite. 

Population age, density etc are also contributory factors, but less so.

We were always going to get it early because of London transport links to China and Europe.

I've no doubt that there's going to be poor countries that vastly surpass the western death rates, because they don't have the money or the infrastructure to stop long term spread.

It's a long battle, we've been attacked early, and we were too slow at first, but we've got ourselves into a better position to fight back now and we've got resources and infrastructure to continue to fight for much longer than most of the world.   

  

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Sweep]

12 minutes ago, ZicoKelly said:

Hancock just said from tomorrow their numbers will include outside of hospitals as well

blimey, that's going to show a fare old spike in the total number then - If you're going to report numbers, then I suppose it's only right that you quote the correct ones

[Zico]

5 minutes ago, Sweep said:

blimey, that's going to show a fare old spike in the total number then - If you're going to report numbers, then I suppose it's only right that you quote the correct ones

It said daily numbers will include deaths in the community

I hope that doesn't mean "from now on" and all the ones to date are excluded

[Blondi]

Christ! This is grim.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11501983/british-airways-12000-workers-redundant/

[Casino]

Test centre being created at the Reebok

 

Still very doubtful about the value of such tests to be honest

[Casino]

1 hour ago, peelyfeet said:

sorry for late reply - trying to sell some internet connections!

The smart thinking all along has been that around 0.8%  of the infected will die (CFR - Case fatality rate) in areas with decent healthcare and where the ICU's don't get overloaded,

This has been the figure since we got data from South Korea in Jan, and it still stands up today with all the other results we've had from multiple reliable countries. Areas with really good tracing, early testing and good healthcare provision, e.g. Germany,  show that it could be lower.

So If you have the number of deaths, you can work back from this to see how many have been infected - if we do this today with 21k deaths reported, you get 2.6 million infected. 

But that doesn't take into account newly infected people and those who haven't died or recovered yet, so you need to estimate how many that is. You can do this roughly by forecasting the deaths for the next 3 weeks.

The rolling 7 day average at the moment is 627 per day  - it was 747 for the previous week - if we carry on this pattern it means there's roughly  525 per day next week, 440 the week after, 370 after that , another 9.3k deaths, so another 1.2 million infected - 3.8 mill in total

We then need to add on the backdated deaths published by NHS - which has been another 9% so far - so 4.14 million 

We then need to add on those dying outside of hospital - this is where it gets tricky, because we don't have good data 

The ONS stats suggest  we need to add on up to an extra 55% of deaths above the PHE figure, (40% above the NHS figure), but this is an up to - and may include some deaths from other stuff.

To be conservative I'd add on another 30%, but because the chances of the infected dying in care homes is much higher than 0.8% because of the very old and comorbid population  (and going off what we know about the amount of really  old people that present to hospital and what can see in the ICU) I bet it's nearer 10% CFR for them, which means we add on another 2.5%, so 4.25 Million, infected today .

 

No-one in the govmt is going to stick their hat on this because its open to wild interpretation, but if you look at countries with very high proportion of tests, the figures are pretty similar - UAE shows 0.78% CFR so far (they've tested a 10th of the country)  

 

Cheers for taking the time.

I'll try and take it all in

 

[Traf]

6 minutes ago, Casino said:

Still very doubtful about the value of such tests to be honest

Helps the Govt get to 100k tests a day, nothing else.

So they can add hitting a target to their other successes like less shoplifting last month, less car crime, murders etc.