Coronavirus

[Casino]

3 minutes ago, Rudy said:

Went to tesco yesterday. Don’t think I saw one person wearing a mask which was a little concerning 

Did you have one on?

[Rudy]

2 minutes ago, Casino said:

Did you have one on?

Yeah

[MickyD]

21 minutes ago, Spider said:

My missus is down the A&E this evening (possible broken foot but I wasn’t really listening)

Made me laugh, a lot.

[Casino]

Just now, Rudy said:

Yeah

Out of interest, why?

 

[Rudy]

1 minute ago, Casino said:

Out of interest, why?

 

Instructions from work

[Casino]

Ah, but even so, my medical advisor feels the risk is probably greater wearing a mask than not, due to manky fcukers not knowing how to keep them clean

I doubt you are typical of the scrotes with germ ridden masks, to be fair

Her only reason for wearing a mask would be to keep others safe

[Rudy]

4 minutes ago, Casino said:

Ah, but even so, my medical advisor feels the risk is probably greater wearing a mask than not, due to manky fcukers not knowing how to keep them clean

I doubt you are typical of the scrotes with germ ridden masks, to be fair

Her only reason for wearing a mask would be to keep others safe

Just think they are covering all bases tbh 

[Casino]

9 minutes ago, Rudy said:

Just think they are covering all bases tbh 

Yeah, nowt wrong with that and like i say, i imagine you know good hygiene practice

Ive hammered supermarkets, still not managed to catch it, unless ive had it and failed to pass it to mrs c, and the thing that pisses me off most, barring everybody in manny road asda, is fcukers wearing potentially germ ridden scarves and wafting em around the shop

Mrs fucking invincibles

[birch-chorley]

Talk of some big VAT cuts to stimulate the economy 

I’d imagine either a flat rate cut for a short period to say 10% or potentially even further to 0% for some of the hardest hit sectors of the economy 

Could well be a good time to buy a new car when that kicks in 

[Rudy]

12 minutes ago, Casino said:

Yeah, nowt wrong with that and like i say, i imagine you know good hygiene practice

Ive hammered supermarkets, still not managed to catch it, unless ive had it and failed to pass it to mrs c, and the thing that pisses me off most, barring everybody in manny road asda, is fcukers wearing potentially germ ridden scarves and wafting em around the shop

Mrs fucking invincibles

I’d like to get it beat it and crack on but not even sure it works like that 

[Escobarp]

44 minutes ago, MancWanderer said:

You lucky get. When this all over I will never once moan about the 6 hours slogs to the likes of Ipswich, Chelmsford and Aberdeen. They can close the motorways, delay me for hours, make me eat service station food and I’ll be happy as a pig in shit to be back on the road

Yep I’m really looking forward to stopping for a piss at the services, finding a local cafe for a sandwich and just being back out there again. 
 

down to leamington spa the week after that too. Time to get some decent business done and of course loyalty points built up on my IHG account.

 

All Safely of course. 

[whiteboy]

1 hour ago, MancWanderer said:

This beer takeaway from pubs business is one thing that concerns. Really sensible bloke I used to work with posted a load of pics on social media of him and his wife celebrating the kids being away for the night with a “Waaay Haaay me and the Mrs finally get a night out”. Sat in a fucking rammed beer garden with hundreds of others. Been to the boozer for take out and then everyone had walked a hundred yards to the next boozer (which was shut) and sat in their garden 

Fuckmops. In Birmingham. Which has had a high death rate. 

i just don’t get it. Shit like that will send our R number soaring again

which pub?! i need a night out

[MancWanderer]

35 minutes ago, whiteboy said:

which pub?! i need a night out

I think that it’s somewhere in Sutton Coldfield but he’s come across all coy when questioned 

Edited June 21, 2020 by MancWanderer

[ProfessorWoland]

9 hours ago, Casino said:

 

Her only reason for wearing a mask would be to keep others safe

 Shouldn't that be reason enough?

I wear a mask and given it's not medical grade that's my primary reason for doing so. If I have picked it up and am asymptomatic it's going to drastically reduce my chances of passing it on. So first reason is a courtesy to the other people in the room.

A secondary reason is I think it provides some limited protection as long as you're careful with it. Don't mess with it, don't be touching it, take if off carefully, sanitise hands and then wash it and dry it for several days.  

I've read a lot of the papers on this subject and the initial scepticism in the West is being replaced by more and more scientists advocating their use for this virus: 

 

Quote

Controlling a respiratory infection at source by a face mask is a well-established strategy. For example, symptomatic patients with cough or sneezing are generally advised to put on a face mask, and this applies equally to patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (airborne transmission) and influenza (predominantly droplet-transmitted). With the large number of asymptomatic patients unware of their own infection [1, 2], the comparable viral load in their upper respiratory tract [3], droplet and aerosol dispersion even during talking and breathing [6], and prolonged viral viability outside our body [7], we strongly advocate universal use of face mask as a means of source control in public places during the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117

Quote

Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicegwalton/2020/06/13/face-masks-may-be-the-key-determinant-of-the-covid-19-curve-study-suggests/#4a8cc0026497

Quote

"By analyzing the pandemic trends without face-covering using the statistical method and by projecting the trend, we calculated that over 66,000 infections were prevented by using a face mask in little over a month in New York City,” said Zhang. In Italy the number was 78,000. “We conclude that wearing a face mask in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent inter-human transmission. This inexpensive practice, in conjunction with social distancing and other procedures, is the most likely opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic."

 

Apologies for the walls of quotes, but with respect I think your advisor is behind the curve on this. 

It's a bit like vaccinations. If everyone does it the evidence is increasingly strong that we'd be getting through this much quicker. As soon as people start to go their own way, the effectiveness of the measure drops. We really need to get to the point where we see others wearing masks as taking steps to keep us safe and vice versa. 

[Rudy]

WHO reported the largest single day increase in cases yesterday 

54,771 cases in Brazil

36,617 cases in America (The same day the POTUS held a campaign rally)

15,400 in India

[ProfessorWoland]

16 minutes ago, Rudy said:

WHO reported the largest single day increase in cases yesterday 

54,771 cases in Brazil

36,617 cases in America (The same day the POTUS held a campaign rally)

15,400 in India

Brazil looks to be heading to a bad place. Us estimates are now up beyond 200k see the quote I posted further up about them seemingly giving up. I wonder whether attention spans are so short now no one has the capacity for the long game.

Good news has been in short supply, but it had failed to get a grip of a developing nation in the way it did in the west. That may be changing, don't like to think of the numbers sick or worse if this goes through a city like Cairo in the way it did NYC or London.  Although their age profile may be a mitigating factor. 

I'm finding my thoughts turning to winter and what a second wave may look like when we can't get out into the sunshine. Hope one of these vaccines comes to save the day.

[peelyfeet]

On 20/06/2020 at 19:23, ZicoKelly said:

What does car park data tell you?

I suppose maybe emptier car parks equals more people at home ill?

hospital car parks - much busier than usual in sept

[peelyfeet]

 

14 hours ago, Winchester White said:

I am happy to stand corrected. Fucking hell, we are going to see rates go through the roof soon surely?

If the overall infected number is low, as it is in Germany at the moment, big leaps in R rate are going to temporarily happen every time there's a local outbreak.

So, as long as they are confined localy, and they don't continue over several days, it's much less concerning than if the R rate goes up when there is a higher and more geograhic spread of the overall infected number.

For example,  if there was an outbreak that caused the number of daily infected to  go up from 1,000 to 2,000, that's an increase of 1,000,  an R rate of 2 - and  there's  2,000 infected in total.

However, If the same outbreak caused the number of infected to go up from 10,000 to 11,000,  this time the R rate is only 1.1, and the overall total is 11,000, much worse than 2,000. 

Even with the local outbreaks, Germany are still recording 4 times less new infections per day than we are (per population), so in summary, it's too early to say how serious the increase in Germany is yet.

if you want a better explanation it's here

https://plus.maths.org/content/epidemic-growth-rate

and the rates, including growth rates are here

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Edited June 22, 2020 by peelyfeet

[Winchester White]

That makes sense, if you are increasing from a smaller base then numbers can hopefully be manageable.

[Sweep]

1 hour ago, Winchester White said:

That makes sense, if you are increasing from a smaller base then numbers can hopefully be manageable.

I was speaking to a colleague today who is in Munich, and he said that in the last few days an abattoir that employs shit loads of people had just had nearly 1000 people test positive out of a work force of around 5000, so I can see why that would show as a massive increase in the R rate.

It was interesting to see in the Teams meeting that we were having that both him and another colleague were both sharing the same laptop for the meeting, therefore sat right next to each other. I questioned it, and he advised that they don't really have to socially distance in the work place?!?! 

[ProfessorWoland]

14 minutes ago, Sweep said:

I was speaking to a colleague today who is in Munich, and he said that in the last few days an abattoir that employs shit loads of people had just had nearly 1000 people test positive out of a work force of around 5000, so I can see why that would show as a massive increase in the R rate.

It was interesting to see in the Teams meeting that we were having that both him and another colleague were both sharing the same laptop for the meeting, therefore sat right next to each other. I questioned it, and he advised that they don't really have to socially distance in the work place?!?! 

The meat industry has been a hotbed of infection from the outset. I'd seen speculation it was a combination of cold temperatures and people working closely together and having to shout over the noise of machinery. 

Those colleagues in Germany really should be on separate laptops, it's a pointless risk given most of their colleagues are remote to begin with.

[Ani]

The work outbreaks are as I understand it more likely to happen from mass gatherings and protests. 
 

15k people meeting to pull down a statue with .1% of people infected. You have 15 infected but let’s assume only people showing no symptoms attend you are nearer 7 or 8 people. With it being outdoors etc etc unlikely to lead to a significant spike. Although if you have multiple events every day the small number at each one soon becomes an issue. Whereas in a work place with cold atmosphere and too much contact it spreads like wild fire just because there is much contact. 
 

Going to cause real issues in Yorkshire when temperatures drop if putting 2 extra coats on is not as effective as turning the heating on. Folk over here will need EU grants. 

[Guest]

15 

[burnden]

Great to see low death rate today .

[Casino]

I confidently predict that's the lowest figure of the week